Top 25 ETCs after Week 3

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by Wayne TenBrink

In general, an observer can tell who is capable of doing what, and they instinctively know when to dismiss certain match data. We tend to rate teams based on their expected capabilities when things are working properly. Recent performance is generally a better indication of future performance than historical average because of all the continuous improvement that goes on in FIRST. I think that ETC's might better reflect true capabilities if they omitted one or two of the lowest matches, or perhaps looked at a 10 match running average, like some golfing handicaps.

Regardless of the imperfection of any system, they have their merits. Many thanks to those who do the work to make them possible.

Thanks for the insights on the golfing handicaps, and its definitely something I am trying to figure out. The logistics of removing the lowest match is a little difficult as I keep a running sum which is adjusted as matches are added. Definitely on my todo list this week.

Thanks!

[mwtidd]

Found a bug....
I think you guys will like these new #s better

[Adam Freeman]

Mike,

Here is some scouting data that I pulled on the teams that have been mentioned from the WM district:

* These are for qualification matches only, since I am pretty sure that is what your ETC, ERC, and EMC are calculated with.

Average Scores
Team Auto Teleop Minibot Total
67 5.00 39.75 23.33 68.08
2054 6.00 28.92 20.83 55.75
74 4.25 25.83 18.75 48.83
27 2.00 25.42 19.17 46.58
1918 0.50 27.83 11.25 39.58
2767 0.00 1.33 18.75 20.08

From the scouting data, I can see if/where a team scored an Uber-tube and what place their minibot scored. For teleop I can see how many tubes and where they scored them. Since I know where 67 scored tubes and created logos, I made an assumption that any tube scored by a team was part of a logo...so the team received the contribution of points for that tube as if it was part of a logo.

It's interesting to see how the raw data correlates not only to your estimates, but also to my subjective ratings for each of these teams.

Hopefully this helps further adjust your metrics.

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by Adam Freeman

Mike,

Here is some scouting data that I pulled on the teams that have been mentioned from the WM district:

* These are for qualification matches only, since I am pretty sure that is what your ETC, ERC, and EMC are calculated with.

Average Scores
Team Auto Teleop Minibot Total
67 5.00 39.75 23.33 68.08
2054 6.00 28.92 20.83 55.75
74 4.25 25.83 18.75 48.83
27 2.00 25.42 19.17 46.58
1918 0.50 27.83 11.25 39.58
2767 0.00 1.33 18.75 20.08

From the scouting data, I can see if/where a team scored an Uber-tube and what place their minibot scored. For teleop I can see how many tubes and where they scored them. Since I know where 67 scored tubes and created logos, I made an assumption that any tube scored by a team was part of a logo...so the team received the contribution of points for that tube as if it was part of a logo.

It's interesting to see how the raw data correlates not only to your estimates, but also to my subjective ratings for each of these teams.

Hopefully this helps further adjust your metrics.

Thanks for these #'s this helps out a ton.

I don't think EMC can get much better than this, an error of +/- 3 is something I'm happy with. I think I've killed most of the inflation that was going on there. It seems robot (auton + teleop) is still a little low, but i will be working on a filter to knock out teams who really don't contribute. As you found 1918 had a 1.33 but I had them at a 5. Obviously there's a bit of point inflation there. Hopefully I can filter that out and get a better read.

Thanks again!

[railerobotics]

Take a look at Teams 935 and 932 from the OKC Regional.
935 Had and Average of 60 points per match and 30 point bonus off there bot 9 out of 10 in Qualification matchs. Then in the finals the 6 matchs they ran they never missed with 1.6 mini bot with a .5 deployment.

932 did not have mini bot but Scored about the same tube average. This being said keep in mind the OKC regional had a number of rookie and w 2nd year teams that did not score very many tubes.

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by railerobotics

Take a look at Teams 935 and 932 from the OKC Regional.
935 Had and Average of 60 points per match and 30 point bonus off there bot 9 out of 10 in Qualification matchs. Then in the finals the 6 matchs they ran they never missed with 1.6 mini bot with a .5 deployment.

932 did not have mini bot but Scored about the same tube average. This being said keep in mind the OKC regional had a number of rookie and w 2nd year teams that did not score very many tubes.

932 had a EMC of 0 and a ERC of 56
935 had a EMC of 24 and a ERC of 43

looking for good minibots I see
2773
2352
476

2165 and 704's minibots look like they'd be worth checking out
probably 3660 too

as far as robots go it looks like you two dominated
1108 is up there with you guys though with a 31
the next ERC tier would start around 20 but theres quite a few robots there.

let me know how close I got

[Debbie]

It is an honor to be listed among all of those great teams! Thanks for your time spent crunching numbers! We are looking forward to our second district next week and are hoping to improve on those numbers!

[Pjohn1959]

OK, I give up.

No where is it described what an ETC, EMC, etc. is. Can you help out by explaining what you are talking about.

Thanks,

[Debbie]

Originally Posted by Pjohn1959

OK, I give up.

No where is it described what an ETC, EMC, etc. is. Can you help out by explaining what you are talking about.

Thanks,

HA! Glad I'm not the only one that had problems with that. It is either Estimated Team Contribution (or expected - not really positive) and Estimated Robot Contribution and Estimated MiniBot Contribution... I think...

[mwtidd]

Originally Posted by Debbie

HA! Glad I'm not the only one that had problems with that. It is either Estimated Team Contribution (or expected - not really positive) and Estimated Robot Contribution and Estimated MiniBot Contribution... I think...

Its supposed to be estimated, but you're right.

Based on the data I'm verifying on in West Michigan EMC is doing pretty well. +/-3 of their actual average contribution.

The ERC isn't quite as accurate, its about 10 pts off, but if you look at it as a scale I think its still useful. I worked yesterday to fix EMC and hopefully I'll have ERC better by the end of the day.

[Debbie]

Are you posting a new one including this weekend's events? I am curious to see how your rating compares to the one we calculated with scouting.