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#31
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
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We've got a couple improvements to do, driver practice as well as prescouting and some new strategies to work on, but we're be ready to play Thursday. |
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#32
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.
Code:
Team OPR Avg Rnk Med Rnk Mod Rnk SD Rnk Max Rnk Min Rnk #1 seed Top 8 Avg QP Med QP Mode QP StdevQP Max QP Min QP 148 71.24 7.13 4.5 2 7.8 42 1 15 76 17.04 18 18 2.41 20 10 1503 65.43 8.6 6 3 7.7 36 1 14 64 16.49 16.5 18 2.38 20 10 525 64.08 9.6 7.5 2 8.3 37 1 9 55 16.27 16 16 2.46 20 10 217 61.01 11.09 10 2 8.8 54 1 7 44 15.73 16 16 2.39 20 8 234 58.70 9.68 7 6 8.1 38 1 8 58 16.31 16 18 2.30 20 11 2415 57.92 11.26 10.5 1 8.0 37 1 10 43 15.8 16 16 2.39 20 10 25 57.04 12.68 10 7 9.2 39 1 5 43 15.4 16 16 2.54 20 10 1538 55.88 10.46 8 4 9.2 48 1 5 54 16.06 16 18 2.49 20 8 1730 54.08 14.78 12.5 4 10.1 41 1 2 33 14.96 14.5 14 2.62 20 10 11 48.94 17.28 16 12 11.2 50 1 5 26 14.43 14 14 2.61 20 8 2122 47.49 18.78 15.5 5 13.7 57 1 4 27 14.29 14 14 3.08 20 8 1676 46.38 19.72 17 14 14.1 65 1 2 23 14.02 14 14 3.06 20 6 27 46.29 22.02 20 9 14.4 65 1 2 17 13.56 14 14 3.16 20 6 3138 45.36 21.01 21 22 11.4 53 1 2 15 13.69 14 12 2.57 20 8 624 45.21 21.58 18.5 11 13.3 52 2 0 20 13.62 14 16 2.86 20 8 78 43.85 21.82 19 10 13.7 64 2 0 16 13.49 14 14 2.81 18 6 88 42.90 22.14 17 14 15.9 68 1 3 17 13.55 14 16 3.33 20 6 16 41.77 23.23 19 17 15.0 62 1 2 14 13.37 14 14 3.11 20 6 3284 41.26 22.64 20 26 13.9 69 2 0 11 13.45 14 14 2.83 20 6 1732 41.15 22.11 19 19 14.9 77 2 0 16 13.54 14 14 2.94 20 4 179 40.88 22.65 19 11 15.5 78 3 0 13 13.46 14 14 3.07 20 4 233 40.32 23.07 19 4 16.8 81 1 2 17 13.45 14 14 3.31 20 5 2848 40.01 24.77 22 20 13.8 53 2 0 12 12.92 14 14 2.89 20 8 836 39.89 25.44 22 28 15.8 73 1 1 12 12.93 14 14 3.06 19 5 494 39.87 26.31 25 23 14.6 66 2 0 13 12.81 12 12 3.07 20 6 340 36.95 28.87 24.5 21 16.8 68 2 0 8 12.35 12 12 3.16 18 6 337 35.40 28.15 27 29 13.7 77 1 1 4 12.39 12 12 2.67 20 4 1731 35.03 29.15 28 40 15.1 66 1 1 9 12.24 12 12 3.00 20 6 3547 33.77 28.98 26 21 15.2 78 4 0 3 12.16 12 12 2.86 18 4 302 31.40 33.64 32 25 13.6 66 6 0 3 11.41 12 12 2.43 18 6 2046 28.17 40.58 41 41 16.0 80 12 0 0 10.29 10 10 2.76 16 4 2481 28.08 40.92 39.5 27 20.1 86 2 0 6 10.23 10 10 3.61 20 2 2809 27.79 37.71 35 30 17.5 76 6 0 2 10.82 12 12 3.11 18 4 2338 27.62 38.01 35.5 29 17.6 76 2 0 3 10.7 11.5 12 3.08 18 4 3009 26.11 40.16 38.5 32 17.3 86 3 0 4 10.45 10 8 3.22 18 2 1100 25.93 40.06 41 51 17.5 84 5 0 2 10.48 10 8 3.13 18 3 842 25.14 38.93 39 39 17.0 80 5 0 2 10.61 10 10 2.98 18 4 386 24.47 43.77 43.5 53 18.5 85 9 0 0 9.79 10 8 3.20 16 2 1108 23.34 41.85 40.5 41 16.4 84 10 0 0 10.13 10 10 2.89 16 2 3483 22.56 43.02 41.5 34 18.1 83 7 0 1 10 10 12 3.31 18 4 811 21.83 44.79 44 44 17.3 84 6 0 1 9.71 10 10 2.90 18 2 1511 21.49 45 45 40 17.7 87 14 0 0 9.72 10 8 3.04 16 0 1710 21.07 47.45 48.5 54 18.2 83 8 0 1 9.27 8.5 8 3.06 16 2 3456 19.80 45.14 45 54 18.6 83 4 0 2 9.82 10 8 3.18 18 4 2614 19.70 44.54 42 41 18.6 82 5 0 1 9.72 10 10 3.34 18 2 447 17.94 46.86 46.5 31 18.0 86 7 0 3 9.42 10 10 3.17 18 2 3536 15.47 54.76 56.5 68 17.5 85 23 0 0 8.32 8 6 2.96 14 2 228 15.06 52.46 54 46 19.6 88 5 0 1 8.65 8 8 3.42 18 0 3103 14.82 51.74 52.5 58 18.0 86 5 0 2 8.74 8 8 3.13 18 2 3344 14.52 51.64 54 54 18.4 84 13 0 0 8.7 8 8 3.15 16 2 980 14.12 50.82 51 49 18.7 87 4 0 1 8.83 8 8 3.26 18 2 236 14.04 53.4 54.5 53 17.4 86 13 0 0 8.41 8 8 2.97 16 2 3792 13.95 54.35 54 44 18.0 87 9 0 0 8.26 8 6 3.14 18 2 79 13.31 55 55 59 17.5 87 6 0 1 8.17 8 8 3.10 18 0 2039 13.03 52.27 51.5 47 17.8 85 4 0 1 8.67 8 10 3.10 18 2 2437 12.45 57.58 57.5 54 16.1 87 11 0 0 7.88 8 6 2.69 16 2 1764 11.31 59.11 60.5 68 14.1 87 13 0 0 7.62 8 8 2.41 15 2 1604 8.83 59.74 62 56 17.3 87 9 0 0 7.68 8 8 2.98 16 2 2797 8.27 57.82 59.5 73 17.6 88 16 0 0 7.92 8 8 3.11 16 0 2974 7.55 60.54 65 72 17.9 88 11 0 0 7.4 7.5 6 3.16 16 0 3880 6.48 63.27 67 67 16.6 88 19 0 0 7 6 6 2.88 16 0 2815 5.09 61.6 62 61 15.6 88 22 0 0 7.42 8 8 2.71 14 2 2264 4.89 65.21 68 46 15.6 87 28 0 0 6.84 6 6 2.69 12 2 1942 4.81 61.37 61 58 15.7 88 24 0 0 7.33 8 8 2.82 14 0 3358 4.64 65.18 68.5 47 16.7 87 23 0 0 6.65 6 8 3.03 14 2 3612 4.45 61.92 62 88 18.0 88 13 0 0 7.18 8 8 3.30 16 0 1502 4.28 61.22 64 72 16.8 87 15 0 0 7.42 8 6 2.98 16 0 3242 3.77 66.78 71 83 16.1 88 22 0 0 6.57 6 6 2.83 13 2 2342 3.62 64.81 70 70 15.7 88 21 0 0 6.91 6 6 2.78 14 2 3748 3.21 63.91 67 72 15.8 88 23 0 0 7.05 6 6 2.69 14 0 2662 3.20 62.01 63 76 16.8 87 24 0 0 7.36 8 8 2.97 14 2 2655 3.16 68.3 70.5 82 14.4 88 29 0 0 6.29 6 6 2.61 13 0 3622 2.98 67.7 71 71 14.9 88 29 0 0 6.35 6 6 2.63 12 0 1984 2.84 66.52 69 60 15.0 88 28 0 0 6.52 6 6 2.79 12 0 2197 2.66 62.52 65.5 82 17.6 88 18 0 0 7.16 7 6 3.20 14 0 3126 2.50 68.47 70.5 86 15.0 88 36 0 0 6.1 6 6 2.90 12 0 3478 1.33 68.93 72 86 15.3 88 31 0 0 6.06 6 8 2.96 12 0 2080 0.56 65.71 71 71 17.9 88 13 0 0 6.66 6 6 3.23 16 0 353 0.37 68.54 73 61 15.0 87 31 0 0 6.26 6 6 2.78 12 2 1829 -0.01 69.79 74 86 15.1 88 21 0 0 6.12 6 6 2.92 14 0 3521 -0.53 71.66 74 85 13.0 88 35 0 0 5.74 6 6 2.56 12 0 1165 -0.59 68.66 73.5 84 17.3 88 29 0 0 6.01 6 4 3.23 12 0 1801 -1.16 69.05 72.5 79 15.9 88 23 0 0 6.18 6 6 2.94 14 0 3278 -1.98 70.25 73 85 14.2 88 32 0 0 5.96 6 4 2.69 12 0 3505 -2.07 70.45 74.5 88 14.7 88 29 0 0 6 6 6 2.86 12 0 2660 -2.31 69.74 74 88 15.3 88 32 0 0 5.92 6 6 2.98 12 0 1195 -2.42 69.79 75 88 15.6 88 23 0 0 6.03 6 4 2.93 14 0 3472 -5.76 73.98 76.5 88 13.4 88 39 0 0 5.31 5.5 4 2.80 12 0 |
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#33
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Thanks for doing that Joe. It's always interesting to look at. In just a few day's we'll have the real stats. See everyone soon!
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#34
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2011 Newton Division and MOEbile Pit!
To start I would like to congratulate all of the teams who are coming to nationals in St. Louis! All of your hard work and dedication is paying off!
Like any other competition there are some things that are bound to happen. Programs aren't going to run right, things will break, and countless of other things could go wrong (knock on wood!). But have no fear, MOEbile Pit will be there! For years MOE 365 has run a successful "mobile pit" which consists of a team of students that helps other teams with any problems that they encounter. But this year we are stepping into the 21st century with the help of Twitter! If at any time during the competition your team finds themselves in need of help, Tweet @MOEbilePit with your problem/request! This is an experimental way of communication through which other FIRST teams can connect to our MOEbile Pit when they need assistance! If you have any questions feel free to post them, or Tweet them to @MOEbilePit . In the words of my greatest inspiration, Dean Kamen, "Good luck, and see you in St. Louis!" |
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#35
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Hey Joe, how well has that piece of statistical fun correlated to actual division results in the past?
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#36
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.
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#37
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
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Thanks for posting! One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say? What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4? -John |
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#38
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
That's a pretty reasonable correlation, I'd say.
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#39
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
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The sum of the maximum OPR of each simulated alliance may well be a good predictor of the winning alliance of a simulated match1. But this year, especially with the exaggerated and quantized contribution of the minibot race, it surely can't be a good predictor of the score of that simulated match. Teams 148, 1503 & 525 would be a very formidable alliance, but I don't expect even them to score 201 points (200.75 rounded) in a single match ![]() Furthermore, with 88 teams playing 10 matches each, it is quite likely that two or more teams will finish qualifications with a 10-0-0 record, and several to tie with 9-1-0 records, so RS will matter for final seeding. To predict RS we need to predict the losing alliances score (ignoring penalties). 1 I publicly commit to producing an analysis after the Championship looking at the performance of several predictive metrics. Look for a thread once I've recovered. |
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#40
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Just for fun, a test qualification schedule for Newton is posted on the FIRST website. Again this is just a TEST but it's interesting to look at.
http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/eve...edulequal.html |
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#41
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
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with 148 against 217 with 3138 against 525 with 2415/234 against 27/1676 with 25 with 233 against 494 against 16 |
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#42
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
While my data has all that information, I'm not going to be able to extract it before the championship. I can say that no undefeated and untied team in the 3 alliance w-l-t era has ever seeded worse then 3rd. Given that most of those played 7 matches, it will only be better for the undefeated teams this year. There also has almost always been at least one undefeated team. Conversely, in the past, only 12 times out of 160 opportunities did a team with 2 losses seed in the top 8. I expect that number to be significantly different this year, however.
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#43
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
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If not -- no worries. Something for next year maybe? -John |
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#44
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.
Code:
Seed 20qp 18qp 16qp 1 75 23 0 2 43 52 0 3 12 82 1 4 3 89 5 5 1 78 12 6 0 50 39 7 0 28 63 8 0 12 84 9 0 4 95 10 0 0 97 11 0 0 89 12 0 0 75 13 0 0 56 14 0 0 32 15 0 0 19 16 0 0 8 17 0 0 5 18 0 0 2 19 0 0 1 |
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#45
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.
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