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  #31   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 18-04-2011, 15:49
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lucas View Post
Interesting, I bet Blizzard (188) was contacted on Friday as well. They are added and still awaiting a division like you were. I am curious with the timeline of how FIRST fills and posts divisions. Did your invite email come before Divisions were posted around 6PM Eastern? When did you confirm that you would be attending?
We recieved the email from FIRST Friday afternoon (1:39pm) and was given until today at noon to accept the invitation. Once we ensured we had enough students interested, we responded to the email last night. It was a little fun to look at the divisions and think which one we would prefer to be in.

We've got a couple improvements to do, driver practice as well as prescouting and some new strategies to work on, but we're be ready to play Thursday.
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Unread 25-04-2011, 12:16
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Code:
Team	OPR	Avg Rnk	Med Rnk	Mod Rnk	SD Rnk	Max Rnk	Min Rnk	#1 seed	Top 8	Avg QP	Med QP	Mode QP	StdevQP	Max QP	Min QP
148	71.24	7.13	4.5	2	7.8	42	1	15	76	17.04	18	18	2.41	20	10
1503	65.43	8.6	6	3	7.7	36	1	14	64	16.49	16.5	18	2.38	20	10
525	64.08	9.6	7.5	2	8.3	37	1	9	55	16.27	16	16	2.46	20	10
217	61.01	11.09	10	2	8.8	54	1	7	44	15.73	16	16	2.39	20	8
234	58.70	9.68	7	6	8.1	38	1	8	58	16.31	16	18	2.30	20	11
2415	57.92	11.26	10.5	1	8.0	37	1	10	43	15.8	16	16	2.39	20	10
25	57.04	12.68	10	7	9.2	39	1	5	43	15.4	16	16	2.54	20	10
1538	55.88	10.46	8	4	9.2	48	1	5	54	16.06	16	18	2.49	20	8
1730	54.08	14.78	12.5	4	10.1	41	1	2	33	14.96	14.5	14	2.62	20	10
11	48.94	17.28	16	12	11.2	50	1	5	26	14.43	14	14	2.61	20	8
2122	47.49	18.78	15.5	5	13.7	57	1	4	27	14.29	14	14	3.08	20	8
1676	46.38	19.72	17	14	14.1	65	1	2	23	14.02	14	14	3.06	20	6
27	46.29	22.02	20	9	14.4	65	1	2	17	13.56	14	14	3.16	20	6
3138	45.36	21.01	21	22	11.4	53	1	2	15	13.69	14	12	2.57	20	8
624	45.21	21.58	18.5	11	13.3	52	2	0	20	13.62	14	16	2.86	20	8
78	43.85	21.82	19	10	13.7	64	2	0	16	13.49	14	14	2.81	18	6
88	42.90	22.14	17	14	15.9	68	1	3	17	13.55	14	16	3.33	20	6
16	41.77	23.23	19	17	15.0	62	1	2	14	13.37	14	14	3.11	20	6
3284	41.26	22.64	20	26	13.9	69	2	0	11	13.45	14	14	2.83	20	6
1732	41.15	22.11	19	19	14.9	77	2	0	16	13.54	14	14	2.94	20	4
179	40.88	22.65	19	11	15.5	78	3	0	13	13.46	14	14	3.07	20	4
233	40.32	23.07	19	4	16.8	81	1	2	17	13.45	14	14	3.31	20	5
2848	40.01	24.77	22	20	13.8	53	2	0	12	12.92	14	14	2.89	20	8
836	39.89	25.44	22	28	15.8	73	1	1	12	12.93	14	14	3.06	19	5
494	39.87	26.31	25	23	14.6	66	2	0	13	12.81	12	12	3.07	20	6
340	36.95	28.87	24.5	21	16.8	68	2	0	8	12.35	12	12	3.16	18	6
337	35.40	28.15	27	29	13.7	77	1	1	4	12.39	12	12	2.67	20	4
1731	35.03	29.15	28	40	15.1	66	1	1	9	12.24	12	12	3.00	20	6
3547	33.77	28.98	26	21	15.2	78	4	0	3	12.16	12	12	2.86	18	4
302	31.40	33.64	32	25	13.6	66	6	0	3	11.41	12	12	2.43	18	6
2046	28.17	40.58	41	41	16.0	80	12	0	0	10.29	10	10	2.76	16	4
2481	28.08	40.92	39.5	27	20.1	86	2	0	6	10.23	10	10	3.61	20	2
2809	27.79	37.71	35	30	17.5	76	6	0	2	10.82	12	12	3.11	18	4
2338	27.62	38.01	35.5	29	17.6	76	2	0	3	10.7	11.5	12	3.08	18	4
3009	26.11	40.16	38.5	32	17.3	86	3	0	4	10.45	10	8	3.22	18	2
1100	25.93	40.06	41	51	17.5	84	5	0	2	10.48	10	8	3.13	18	3
842	25.14	38.93	39	39	17.0	80	5	0	2	10.61	10	10	2.98	18	4
386	24.47	43.77	43.5	53	18.5	85	9	0	0	9.79	10	8	3.20	16	2
1108	23.34	41.85	40.5	41	16.4	84	10	0	0	10.13	10	10	2.89	16	2
3483	22.56	43.02	41.5	34	18.1	83	7	0	1	10	10	12	3.31	18	4
811	21.83	44.79	44	44	17.3	84	6	0	1	9.71	10	10	2.90	18	2
1511	21.49	45	45	40	17.7	87	14	0	0	9.72	10	8	3.04	16	0
1710	21.07	47.45	48.5	54	18.2	83	8	0	1	9.27	8.5	8	3.06	16	2
3456	19.80	45.14	45	54	18.6	83	4	0	2	9.82	10	8	3.18	18	4
2614	19.70	44.54	42	41	18.6	82	5	0	1	9.72	10	10	3.34	18	2
447	17.94	46.86	46.5	31	18.0	86	7	0	3	9.42	10	10	3.17	18	2
3536	15.47	54.76	56.5	68	17.5	85	23	0	0	8.32	8	6	2.96	14	2
228	15.06	52.46	54	46	19.6	88	5	0	1	8.65	8	8	3.42	18	0
3103	14.82	51.74	52.5	58	18.0	86	5	0	2	8.74	8	8	3.13	18	2
3344	14.52	51.64	54	54	18.4	84	13	0	0	8.7	8	8	3.15	16	2
980	14.12	50.82	51	49	18.7	87	4	0	1	8.83	8	8	3.26	18	2
236	14.04	53.4	54.5	53	17.4	86	13	0	0	8.41	8	8	2.97	16	2
3792	13.95	54.35	54	44	18.0	87	9	0	0	8.26	8	6	3.14	18	2
79	13.31	55	55	59	17.5	87	6	0	1	8.17	8	8	3.10	18	0
2039	13.03	52.27	51.5	47	17.8	85	4	0	1	8.67	8	10	3.10	18	2
2437	12.45	57.58	57.5	54	16.1	87	11	0	0	7.88	8	6	2.69	16	2
1764	11.31	59.11	60.5	68	14.1	87	13	0	0	7.62	8	8	2.41	15	2
1604	8.83	59.74	62	56	17.3	87	9	0	0	7.68	8	8	2.98	16	2
2797	8.27	57.82	59.5	73	17.6	88	16	0	0	7.92	8	8	3.11	16	0
2974	7.55	60.54	65	72	17.9	88	11	0	0	7.4	7.5	6	3.16	16	0
3880	6.48	63.27	67	67	16.6	88	19	0	0	7	6	6	2.88	16	0
2815	5.09	61.6	62	61	15.6	88	22	0	0	7.42	8	8	2.71	14	2
2264	4.89	65.21	68	46	15.6	87	28	0	0	6.84	6	6	2.69	12	2
1942	4.81	61.37	61	58	15.7	88	24	0	0	7.33	8	8	2.82	14	0
3358	4.64	65.18	68.5	47	16.7	87	23	0	0	6.65	6	8	3.03	14	2
3612	4.45	61.92	62	88	18.0	88	13	0	0	7.18	8	8	3.30	16	0
1502	4.28	61.22	64	72	16.8	87	15	0	0	7.42	8	6	2.98	16	0
3242	3.77	66.78	71	83	16.1	88	22	0	0	6.57	6	6	2.83	13	2
2342	3.62	64.81	70	70	15.7	88	21	0	0	6.91	6	6	2.78	14	2
3748	3.21	63.91	67	72	15.8	88	23	0	0	7.05	6	6	2.69	14	0
2662	3.20	62.01	63	76	16.8	87	24	0	0	7.36	8	8	2.97	14	2
2655	3.16	68.3	70.5	82	14.4	88	29	0	0	6.29	6	6	2.61	13	0
3622	2.98	67.7	71	71	14.9	88	29	0	0	6.35	6	6	2.63	12	0
1984	2.84	66.52	69	60	15.0	88	28	0	0	6.52	6	6	2.79	12	0
2197	2.66	62.52	65.5	82	17.6	88	18	0	0	7.16	7	6	3.20	14	0
3126	2.50	68.47	70.5	86	15.0	88	36	0	0	6.1	6	6	2.90	12	0
3478	1.33	68.93	72	86	15.3	88	31	0	0	6.06	6	8	2.96	12	0
2080	0.56	65.71	71	71	17.9	88	13	0	0	6.66	6	6	3.23	16	0
353	0.37	68.54	73	61	15.0	87	31	0	0	6.26	6	6	2.78	12	2
1829	-0.01	69.79	74	86	15.1	88	21	0	0	6.12	6	6	2.92	14	0
3521	-0.53	71.66	74	85	13.0	88	35	0	0	5.74	6	6	2.56	12	0
1165	-0.59	68.66	73.5	84	17.3	88	29	0	0	6.01	6	4	3.23	12	0
1801	-1.16	69.05	72.5	79	15.9	88	23	0	0	6.18	6	6	2.94	14	0
3278	-1.98	70.25	73	85	14.2	88	32	0	0	5.96	6	4	2.69	12	0
3505	-2.07	70.45	74.5	88	14.7	88	29	0	0	6	6	6	2.86	12	0
2660	-2.31	69.74	74	88	15.3	88	32	0	0	5.92	6	6	2.98	12	0
1195	-2.42	69.79	75	88	15.6	88	23	0	0	6.03	6	4	2.93	14	0
3472	-5.76	73.98	76.5	88	13.4	88	39	0	0	5.31	5.5	4	2.80	12	0
  #33   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 25-04-2011, 13:43
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Thanks for doing that Joe. It's always interesting to look at. In just a few day's we'll have the real stats. See everyone soon!
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2015- Newton Division Finalists With 195 and 1756
2015- Finger Lakes Regional Champions with 4039 and 378
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Unread 25-04-2011, 18:04
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2011 Newton Division and MOEbile Pit!

To start I would like to congratulate all of the teams who are coming to nationals in St. Louis! All of your hard work and dedication is paying off!
Like any other competition there are some things that are bound to happen. Programs aren't going to run right, things will break, and countless of other things could go wrong (knock on wood!). But have no fear, MOEbile Pit will be there! For years MOE 365 has run a successful "mobile pit" which consists of a team of students that helps other teams with any problems that they encounter. But this year we are stepping into the 21st century with the help of Twitter! If at any time during the competition your team finds themselves in need of help, Tweet @MOEbilePit with your problem/request! This is an experimental way of communication through which other FIRST teams can connect to our MOEbile Pit when they need assistance! If you have any questions feel free to post them, or Tweet them to @MOEbilePit .
In the words of my greatest inspiration, Dean Kamen, "Good luck, and see you in St. Louis!"
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Unread 25-04-2011, 18:16
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Hey Joe, how well has that piece of statistical fun correlated to actual division results in the past?
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Unread 25-04-2011, 19:09
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by pfreivald View Post
Hey Joe, how well has that piece of statistical fun correlated to actual division results in the past?
In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.
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Unread 25-04-2011, 20:24
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Code:
Team	OPR	Avg Rnk	Med Rnk	Mod Rnk	SD Rnk	Max Rnk	Min Rnk	#1 seed	Top 8	Avg QP	Med QP	Mode QP	StdevQP	Max QP	Min QP
148	71.24	7.13	4.5	2	7.8	42	1	15	76	17.04	18	18	2.41	20	10
1503	65.43	8.6	6	3	7.7	36	1	14	64	16.49	16.5	18	2.38	20	10
525	64.08	9.6	7.5	2	8.3	37	1	9	55	16.27	16	16	2.46	20	10
217	61.01	11.09	10	2	8.8	54	1	7	44	15.73	16	16	2.39	20	8
234	58.70	9.68	7	6	8.1	38	1	8	58	16.31	16	18	2.30	20	11
2415	57.92	11.26	10.5	1	8.0	37	1	10	43	15.8	16	16	2.39	20	10
25	57.04	12.68	10	7	9.2	39	1	5	43	15.4	16	16	2.54	20	10
1538	55.88	10.46	8	4	9.2	48	1	5	54	16.06	16	18	2.49	20	8
1730	54.08	14.78	12.5	4	10.1	41	1	2	33	14.96	14.5	14	2.62	20	10
11	48.94	17.28	16	12	11.2	50	1	5	26	14.43	14	14	2.61	20	8
2122	47.49	18.78	15.5	5	13.7	57	1	4	27	14.29	14	14	3.08	20	8
1676	46.38	19.72	17	14	14.1	65	1	2	23	14.02	14	14	3.06	20	6
27	46.29	22.02	20	9	14.4	65	1	2	17	13.56	14	14	3.16	20	6
3138	45.36	21.01	21	22	11.4	53	1	2	15	13.69	14	12	2.57	20	8
624	45.21	21.58	18.5	11	13.3	52	2	0	20	13.62	14	16	2.86	20	8
78	43.85	21.82	19	10	13.7	64	2	0	16	13.49	14	14	2.81	18	6
88	42.90	22.14	17	14	15.9	68	1	3	17	13.55	14	16	3.33	20	6
16	41.77	23.23	19	17	15.0	62	1	2	14	13.37	14	14	3.11	20	6
3284	41.26	22.64	20	26	13.9	69	2	0	11	13.45	14	14	2.83	20	6
1732	41.15	22.11	19	19	14.9	77	2	0	16	13.54	14	14	2.94	20	4
179	40.88	22.65	19	11	15.5	78	3	0	13	13.46	14	14	3.07	20	4
233	40.32	23.07	19	4	16.8	81	1	2	17	13.45	14	14	3.31	20	5
2848	40.01	24.77	22	20	13.8	53	2	0	12	12.92	14	14	2.89	20	8
836	39.89	25.44	22	28	15.8	73	1	1	12	12.93	14	14	3.06	19	5
494	39.87	26.31	25	23	14.6	66	2	0	13	12.81	12	12	3.07	20	6
340	36.95	28.87	24.5	21	16.8	68	2	0	8	12.35	12	12	3.16	18	6
337	35.40	28.15	27	29	13.7	77	1	1	4	12.39	12	12	2.67	20	4
1731	35.03	29.15	28	40	15.1	66	1	1	9	12.24	12	12	3.00	20	6
3547	33.77	28.98	26	21	15.2	78	4	0	3	12.16	12	12	2.86	18	4
302	31.40	33.64	32	25	13.6	66	6	0	3	11.41	12	12	2.43	18	6
2046	28.17	40.58	41	41	16.0	80	12	0	0	10.29	10	10	2.76	16	4
2481	28.08	40.92	39.5	27	20.1	86	2	0	6	10.23	10	10	3.61	20	2
2809	27.79	37.71	35	30	17.5	76	6	0	2	10.82	12	12	3.11	18	4
2338	27.62	38.01	35.5	29	17.6	76	2	0	3	10.7	11.5	12	3.08	18	4
3009	26.11	40.16	38.5	32	17.3	86	3	0	4	10.45	10	8	3.22	18	2
1100	25.93	40.06	41	51	17.5	84	5	0	2	10.48	10	8	3.13	18	3
842	25.14	38.93	39	39	17.0	80	5	0	2	10.61	10	10	2.98	18	4
386	24.47	43.77	43.5	53	18.5	85	9	0	0	9.79	10	8	3.20	16	2
1108	23.34	41.85	40.5	41	16.4	84	10	0	0	10.13	10	10	2.89	16	2
3483	22.56	43.02	41.5	34	18.1	83	7	0	1	10	10	12	3.31	18	4
811	21.83	44.79	44	44	17.3	84	6	0	1	9.71	10	10	2.90	18	2
1511	21.49	45	45	40	17.7	87	14	0	0	9.72	10	8	3.04	16	0
1710	21.07	47.45	48.5	54	18.2	83	8	0	1	9.27	8.5	8	3.06	16	2
3456	19.80	45.14	45	54	18.6	83	4	0	2	9.82	10	8	3.18	18	4
2614	19.70	44.54	42	41	18.6	82	5	0	1	9.72	10	10	3.34	18	2
447	17.94	46.86	46.5	31	18.0	86	7	0	3	9.42	10	10	3.17	18	2
3536	15.47	54.76	56.5	68	17.5	85	23	0	0	8.32	8	6	2.96	14	2
228	15.06	52.46	54	46	19.6	88	5	0	1	8.65	8	8	3.42	18	0
3103	14.82	51.74	52.5	58	18.0	86	5	0	2	8.74	8	8	3.13	18	2
3344	14.52	51.64	54	54	18.4	84	13	0	0	8.7	8	8	3.15	16	2
980	14.12	50.82	51	49	18.7	87	4	0	1	8.83	8	8	3.26	18	2
236	14.04	53.4	54.5	53	17.4	86	13	0	0	8.41	8	8	2.97	16	2
3792	13.95	54.35	54	44	18.0	87	9	0	0	8.26	8	6	3.14	18	2
79	13.31	55	55	59	17.5	87	6	0	1	8.17	8	8	3.10	18	0
2039	13.03	52.27	51.5	47	17.8	85	4	0	1	8.67	8	10	3.10	18	2
2437	12.45	57.58	57.5	54	16.1	87	11	0	0	7.88	8	6	2.69	16	2
1764	11.31	59.11	60.5	68	14.1	87	13	0	0	7.62	8	8	2.41	15	2
1604	8.83	59.74	62	56	17.3	87	9	0	0	7.68	8	8	2.98	16	2
2797	8.27	57.82	59.5	73	17.6	88	16	0	0	7.92	8	8	3.11	16	0
2974	7.55	60.54	65	72	17.9	88	11	0	0	7.4	7.5	6	3.16	16	0
3880	6.48	63.27	67	67	16.6	88	19	0	0	7	6	6	2.88	16	0
2815	5.09	61.6	62	61	15.6	88	22	0	0	7.42	8	8	2.71	14	2
2264	4.89	65.21	68	46	15.6	87	28	0	0	6.84	6	6	2.69	12	2
1942	4.81	61.37	61	58	15.7	88	24	0	0	7.33	8	8	2.82	14	0
3358	4.64	65.18	68.5	47	16.7	87	23	0	0	6.65	6	8	3.03	14	2
3612	4.45	61.92	62	88	18.0	88	13	0	0	7.18	8	8	3.30	16	0
1502	4.28	61.22	64	72	16.8	87	15	0	0	7.42	8	6	2.98	16	0
3242	3.77	66.78	71	83	16.1	88	22	0	0	6.57	6	6	2.83	13	2
2342	3.62	64.81	70	70	15.7	88	21	0	0	6.91	6	6	2.78	14	2
3748	3.21	63.91	67	72	15.8	88	23	0	0	7.05	6	6	2.69	14	0
2662	3.20	62.01	63	76	16.8	87	24	0	0	7.36	8	8	2.97	14	2
2655	3.16	68.3	70.5	82	14.4	88	29	0	0	6.29	6	6	2.61	13	0
3622	2.98	67.7	71	71	14.9	88	29	0	0	6.35	6	6	2.63	12	0
1984	2.84	66.52	69	60	15.0	88	28	0	0	6.52	6	6	2.79	12	0
2197	2.66	62.52	65.5	82	17.6	88	18	0	0	7.16	7	6	3.20	14	0
3126	2.50	68.47	70.5	86	15.0	88	36	0	0	6.1	6	6	2.90	12	0
3478	1.33	68.93	72	86	15.3	88	31	0	0	6.06	6	8	2.96	12	0
2080	0.56	65.71	71	71	17.9	88	13	0	0	6.66	6	6	3.23	16	0
353	0.37	68.54	73	61	15.0	87	31	0	0	6.26	6	6	2.78	12	2
1829	-0.01	69.79	74	86	15.1	88	21	0	0	6.12	6	6	2.92	14	0
3521	-0.53	71.66	74	85	13.0	88	35	0	0	5.74	6	6	2.56	12	0
1165	-0.59	68.66	73.5	84	17.3	88	29	0	0	6.01	6	4	3.23	12	0
1801	-1.16	69.05	72.5	79	15.9	88	23	0	0	6.18	6	6	2.94	14	0
3278	-1.98	70.25	73	85	14.2	88	32	0	0	5.96	6	4	2.69	12	0
3505	-2.07	70.45	74.5	88	14.7	88	29	0	0	6	6	6	2.86	12	0
2660	-2.31	69.74	74	88	15.3	88	32	0	0	5.92	6	6	2.98	12	0
1195	-2.42	69.79	75	88	15.6	88	23	0	0	6.03	6	4	2.93	14	0
3472	-5.76	73.98	76.5	88	13.4	88	39	0	0	5.31	5.5	4	2.80	12	0
Joe,
Thanks for posting!

One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?

What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?

-John
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Unread 25-04-2011, 22:41
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.
That's a pretty reasonable correlation, I'd say.
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Unread 25-04-2011, 23:38
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
In 2008, when OPR was "good", 66% of team's ranks fell within the SD that I posted. That seems pretty good to me.
Joe identifies the key factor which limits this year's statistical fun - whether OPR is a "good" predictor.

The sum of the maximum OPR of each simulated alliance may well be a good predictor of the winning alliance of a simulated match1. But this year, especially with the exaggerated and quantized contribution of the minibot race, it surely can't be a good predictor of the score of that simulated match.
Teams 148, 1503 & 525 would be a very formidable alliance, but I don't expect even them to score 201 points (200.75 rounded) in a single match

Furthermore, with 88 teams playing 10 matches each, it is quite likely that two or more teams will finish qualifications with a 10-0-0 record, and several to tie with 9-1-0 records, so RS will matter for final seeding. To predict RS we need to predict the losing alliances score (ignoring penalties).

1 I publicly commit to producing an analysis after the Championship looking at the performance of several predictive metrics. Look for a thread once I've recovered.
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Unread 25-04-2011, 23:49
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Just for fun, a test qualification schedule for Newton is posted on the FIRST website. Again this is just a TEST but it's interesting to look at.

http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/eve...edulequal.html
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin Montois View Post
Just for fun, a test qualification schedule for Newton is posted on the FIRST website. Again this is just a TEST but it's interesting to look at.

http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/eve...edulequal.html
I wish that was the real one, as we would have a lot of fun matches:
with 148 against 217
with 3138 against 525
with 2415/234 against 27/1676
with 25
with 233 against 494
against 16
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Unread 26-04-2011, 01:00
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by JVN View Post
One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?

What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?
While my data has all that information, I'm not going to be able to extract it before the championship. I can say that no undefeated and untied team in the 3 alliance w-l-t era has ever seeded worse then 3rd. Given that most of those played 7 matches, it will only be better for the undefeated teams this year. There also has almost always been at least one undefeated team. Conversely, in the past, only 12 times out of 160 opportunities did a team with 2 losses seed in the top 8. I expect that number to be significantly different this year, however.
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Unread 26-04-2011, 01:07
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
While my data has all that information, I'm not going to be able to extract it before the championship. I can say that no undefeated and untied team in the 3 alliance w-l-t era has ever seeded worse then 3rd. Given that most of those played 7 matches, it will only be better for the undefeated teams this year. There also has almost always been at least one undefeated team. Conversely, in the past, only 12 times out of 160 opportunities did a team with 2 losses seed in the top 8. I expect that number to be significantly different this year, however.
Is there any way to post the 100 individual seed lists? I could extract my own stats from that.

If not -- no worries. Something for next year maybe?

-John
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Unread 26-04-2011, 12:00
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.

Code:
Seed	20qp	18qp	16qp
1	75	23	0
2	43	52	0
3	12	82	1
4	3	89	5
5	1	78	12
6	0	50	39
7	0	28	63
8	0	12	84
9	0	4	95
10	0	0	97
11	0	0	89
12	0	0	75
13	0	0	56
14	0	0	32
15	0	0	19
16	0	0	8
17	0	0	5
18	0	0	2
19	0	0	1
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Unread 26-04-2011, 12:14
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.
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