2011 Newton Division

[JVN]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Team	OPR	Avg Rnk	Med Rnk	Mod Rnk	SD Rnk	Max Rnk	Min Rnk	#1 seed	Top 8	Avg QP	Med QP	Mode QP	StdevQP	Max QP	Min QP
148	71.24	7.13	4.5	2	7.8	42	1	15	76	17.04	18	18	2.41	20	10
1503	65.43	8.6	6	3	7.7	36	1	14	64	16.49	16.5	18	2.38	20	10
525	64.08	9.6	7.5	2	8.3	37	1	9	55	16.27	16	16	2.46	20	10
217	61.01	11.09	10	2	8.8	54	1	7	44	15.73	16	16	2.39	20	8
234	58.70	9.68	7	6	8.1	38	1	8	58	16.31	16	18	2.30	20	11
2415	57.92	11.26	10.5	1	8.0	37	1	10	43	15.8	16	16	2.39	20	10
25	57.04	12.68	10	7	9.2	39	1	5	43	15.4	16	16	2.54	20	10
1538	55.88	10.46	8	4	9.2	48	1	5	54	16.06	16	18	2.49	20	8
1730	54.08	14.78	12.5	4	10.1	41	1	2	33	14.96	14.5	14	2.62	20	10
11	48.94	17.28	16	12	11.2	50	1	5	26	14.43	14	14	2.61	20	8
2122	47.49	18.78	15.5	5	13.7	57	1	4	27	14.29	14	14	3.08	20	8
1676	46.38	19.72	17	14	14.1	65	1	2	23	14.02	14	14	3.06	20	6
27	46.29	22.02	20	9	14.4	65	1	2	17	13.56	14	14	3.16	20	6
3138	45.36	21.01	21	22	11.4	53	1	2	15	13.69	14	12	2.57	20	8
624	45.21	21.58	18.5	11	13.3	52	2	0	20	13.62	14	16	2.86	20	8
78	43.85	21.82	19	10	13.7	64	2	0	16	13.49	14	14	2.81	18	6
88	42.90	22.14	17	14	15.9	68	1	3	17	13.55	14	16	3.33	20	6
16	41.77	23.23	19	17	15.0	62	1	2	14	13.37	14	14	3.11	20	6
3284	41.26	22.64	20	26	13.9	69	2	0	11	13.45	14	14	2.83	20	6
1732	41.15	22.11	19	19	14.9	77	2	0	16	13.54	14	14	2.94	20	4
179	40.88	22.65	19	11	15.5	78	3	0	13	13.46	14	14	3.07	20	4
233	40.32	23.07	19	4	16.8	81	1	2	17	13.45	14	14	3.31	20	5
2848	40.01	24.77	22	20	13.8	53	2	0	12	12.92	14	14	2.89	20	8
836	39.89	25.44	22	28	15.8	73	1	1	12	12.93	14	14	3.06	19	5
494	39.87	26.31	25	23	14.6	66	2	0	13	12.81	12	12	3.07	20	6
340	36.95	28.87	24.5	21	16.8	68	2	0	8	12.35	12	12	3.16	18	6
337	35.40	28.15	27	29	13.7	77	1	1	4	12.39	12	12	2.67	20	4
1731	35.03	29.15	28	40	15.1	66	1	1	9	12.24	12	12	3.00	20	6
3547	33.77	28.98	26	21	15.2	78	4	0	3	12.16	12	12	2.86	18	4
302	31.40	33.64	32	25	13.6	66	6	0	3	11.41	12	12	2.43	18	6
2046	28.17	40.58	41	41	16.0	80	12	0	0	10.29	10	10	2.76	16	4
2481	28.08	40.92	39.5	27	20.1	86	2	0	6	10.23	10	10	3.61	20	2
2809	27.79	37.71	35	30	17.5	76	6	0	2	10.82	12	12	3.11	18	4
2338	27.62	38.01	35.5	29	17.6	76	2	0	3	10.7	11.5	12	3.08	18	4
3009	26.11	40.16	38.5	32	17.3	86	3	0	4	10.45	10	8	3.22	18	2
1100	25.93	40.06	41	51	17.5	84	5	0	2	10.48	10	8	3.13	18	3
842	25.14	38.93	39	39	17.0	80	5	0	2	10.61	10	10	2.98	18	4
386	24.47	43.77	43.5	53	18.5	85	9	0	0	9.79	10	8	3.20	16	2
1108	23.34	41.85	40.5	41	16.4	84	10	0	0	10.13	10	10	2.89	16	2
3483	22.56	43.02	41.5	34	18.1	83	7	0	1	10	10	12	3.31	18	4
811	21.83	44.79	44	44	17.3	84	6	0	1	9.71	10	10	2.90	18	2
1511	21.49	45	45	40	17.7	87	14	0	0	9.72	10	8	3.04	16	0
1710	21.07	47.45	48.5	54	18.2	83	8	0	1	9.27	8.5	8	3.06	16	2
3456	19.80	45.14	45	54	18.6	83	4	0	2	9.82	10	8	3.18	18	4
2614	19.70	44.54	42	41	18.6	82	5	0	1	9.72	10	10	3.34	18	2
447	17.94	46.86	46.5	31	18.0	86	7	0	3	9.42	10	10	3.17	18	2
3536	15.47	54.76	56.5	68	17.5	85	23	0	0	8.32	8	6	2.96	14	2
228	15.06	52.46	54	46	19.6	88	5	0	1	8.65	8	8	3.42	18	0
3103	14.82	51.74	52.5	58	18.0	86	5	0	2	8.74	8	8	3.13	18	2
3344	14.52	51.64	54	54	18.4	84	13	0	0	8.7	8	8	3.15	16	2
980	14.12	50.82	51	49	18.7	87	4	0	1	8.83	8	8	3.26	18	2
236	14.04	53.4	54.5	53	17.4	86	13	0	0	8.41	8	8	2.97	16	2
3792	13.95	54.35	54	44	18.0	87	9	0	0	8.26	8	6	3.14	18	2
79	13.31	55	55	59	17.5	87	6	0	1	8.17	8	8	3.10	18	0
2039	13.03	52.27	51.5	47	17.8	85	4	0	1	8.67	8	10	3.10	18	2
2437	12.45	57.58	57.5	54	16.1	87	11	0	0	7.88	8	6	2.69	16	2
1764	11.31	59.11	60.5	68	14.1	87	13	0	0	7.62	8	8	2.41	15	2
1604	8.83	59.74	62	56	17.3	87	9	0	0	7.68	8	8	2.98	16	2
2797	8.27	57.82	59.5	73	17.6	88	16	0	0	7.92	8	8	3.11	16	0
2974	7.55	60.54	65	72	17.9	88	11	0	0	7.4	7.5	6	3.16	16	0
3880	6.48	63.27	67	67	16.6	88	19	0	0	7	6	6	2.88	16	0
2815	5.09	61.6	62	61	15.6	88	22	0	0	7.42	8	8	2.71	14	2
2264	4.89	65.21	68	46	15.6	87	28	0	0	6.84	6	6	2.69	12	2
1942	4.81	61.37	61	58	15.7	88	24	0	0	7.33	8	8	2.82	14	0
3358	4.64	65.18	68.5	47	16.7	87	23	0	0	6.65	6	8	3.03	14	2
3612	4.45	61.92	62	88	18.0	88	13	0	0	7.18	8	8	3.30	16	0
1502	4.28	61.22	64	72	16.8	87	15	0	0	7.42	8	6	2.98	16	0
3242	3.77	66.78	71	83	16.1	88	22	0	0	6.57	6	6	2.83	13	2
2342	3.62	64.81	70	70	15.7	88	21	0	0	6.91	6	6	2.78	14	2
3748	3.21	63.91	67	72	15.8	88	23	0	0	7.05	6	6	2.69	14	0
2662	3.20	62.01	63	76	16.8	87	24	0	0	7.36	8	8	2.97	14	2
2655	3.16	68.3	70.5	82	14.4	88	29	0	0	6.29	6	6	2.61	13	0
3622	2.98	67.7	71	71	14.9	88	29	0	0	6.35	6	6	2.63	12	0
1984	2.84	66.52	69	60	15.0	88	28	0	0	6.52	6	6	2.79	12	0
2197	2.66	62.52	65.5	82	17.6	88	18	0	0	7.16	7	6	3.20	14	0
3126	2.50	68.47	70.5	86	15.0	88	36	0	0	6.1	6	6	2.90	12	0
3478	1.33	68.93	72	86	15.3	88	31	0	0	6.06	6	8	2.96	12	0
2080	0.56	65.71	71	71	17.9	88	13	0	0	6.66	6	6	3.23	16	0
353	0.37	68.54	73	61	15.0	87	31	0	0	6.26	6	6	2.78	12	2
1829	-0.01	69.79	74	86	15.1	88	21	0	0	6.12	6	6	2.92	14	0
3521	-0.53	71.66	74	85	13.0	88	35	0	0	5.74	6	6	2.56	12	0
1165	-0.59	68.66	73.5	84	17.3	88	29	0	0	6.01	6	4	3.23	12	0
1801	-1.16	69.05	72.5	79	15.9	88	23	0	0	6.18	6	6	2.94	14	0
3278	-1.98	70.25	73	85	14.2	88	32	0	0	5.96	6	4	2.69	12	0
3505	-2.07	70.45	74.5	88	14.7	88	29	0	0	6	6	6	2.86	12	0
2660	-2.31	69.74	74	88	15.3	88	32	0	0	5.92	6	6	2.98	12	0
1195	-2.42	69.79	75	88	15.6	88	23	0	0	6.03	6	4	2.93	14	0
3472	-5.76	73.98	76.5	88	13.4	88	39	0	0	5.31	5.5	4	2.80	12	0

Joe,
Thanks for posting!

One question we always have at an event is "Can someone still seed after 1 loss? What about if we have 2 losses?" Can you share your data to show what the statistics say?

What does someone statistically need to do in Newton 2011 to stay in the top 8? In the top 4?

-John