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  #46   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 26-04-2011, 12:15
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
Here's how teams seeded with 10 wins, 9 wins, and 8 wins respectively.

Code:
Seed	20qp	18qp	16qp
1	75	23	0
2	43	52	0
3	12	82	1
4	3	89	5
5	1	78	12
6	0	50	39
7	0	28	63
8	0	12	84
9	0	4	95
10	0	0	97
11	0	0	89
12	0	0	75
13	0	0	56
14	0	0	32
15	0	0	19
16	0	0	8
17	0	0	5
18	0	0	2
19	0	0	1
So with two losses you have a chance at the top 8, but in most scenarios you'll find yourself juuuust out of range.

Got it.

-John
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Unread 26-04-2011, 13:11
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?
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Unread 26-04-2011, 14:11
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drivencrazy View Post
So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?
This is a simulated match schedule. Or rather, 100 simulated match schedules were run and compared. Yes, there were regionals with more than 10 matches.

What you're seeing is that with 10 wins in a 10-match schedule, the lowest possible seed is 5th place.
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Unread 26-04-2011, 18:39
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs?

Oughta be way fun. Come by 1676 and say hello, we'll be there from Wednesday as soon as they let us in, on. 'cept for the webhug and Bill's presentations of course.
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Unread 26-04-2011, 20:01
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonRotolo View Post
Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs?
My dad had many versions of Fig Newton jokes this year. He seriously considered buying a box and giving it to the comp team so they could eat 2-4 Newtons before each match, because that's how many it takes to Trigger the Tower . Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match

It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton

OK, I'll stop now...
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  #51   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 26-04-2011, 22:08
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpha Beta View Post
Wow, looks like you had 1 run with 5 undefeated teams. If you're way ahead on tubes you may have to let the other alliance's minibot beat you or at least feed them some tubes to try and get some ranking points.
It's not so much that there are 10 matches, but 10 matches in a field of 88 teams. So 2 strong teams, A & B, will face each other in qualifying with a 30/87 or only 34% probability. With three strong teams it's about 29% likely that none of them will face another in qualification matches.
There is a good chance of multiple no-loss teams vying for the #1 spot, so there might be a slight edge to teams with weaker minibots
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Unread 26-04-2011, 22:43
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lucas View Post
My dad had many versions of Fig Newton jokes this year. He seriously considered buying a box and giving it to the comp team so they could eat 2-4 Newtons before each match, because that's how many it takes to Trigger the Tower . Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match

It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton

OK, I'll stop now...
Oh, man, thats bad.
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Unread 27-04-2011, 23:22
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Schedule is out (first one):
http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html

I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622
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Last edited by The Lucas : 27-04-2011 at 23:37.
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Unread 27-04-2011, 23:33
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Can't wait until match 94. From Opr, it seems to be the super match.
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Unread 27-04-2011, 23:42
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

I was too lazy to code up a ranking calculator earlier in the season (and I have homework due in the morning), but the following is a matrix of the OPR predicted match (using the OPR Joe used) results. 1st column is match number, 2nd is red alliance, 3rd is blue, 4th is the difference.

Newton Schedule

Code:
    1.0000   23.7000   51.5700  -27.8700
    2.0000  137.4200   35.2700  102.1500
    3.0000   12.2100   50.9100  -38.7000
    4.0000    3.9900   72.3900  -68.4000
    5.0000  159.3100   94.5200   64.7900
    6.0000  117.9300   57.5600   60.3700
    7.0000   13.4300   81.8500  -68.4200
    8.0000  120.5500   71.6500   48.9000
    9.0000   72.3300   35.3200   37.0100
   10.0000   98.5800   99.5200   -0.9400
   11.0000   69.1900   42.9500   26.2400
   12.0000   77.3400   19.4700   57.8700
   13.0000   56.2400   34.9900   21.2500
   14.0000   91.3500   72.8700   18.4800
   15.0000   86.5600   62.6000   23.9600
   16.0000  117.2900   69.1400   48.1500
   17.0000    5.3600   32.9600  -27.6000
   18.0000   17.9200  101.6300  -83.7100
   19.0000   54.9400   18.1200   36.8200
   20.0000  115.0000   36.9600   78.0400
   21.0000   38.4000   27.5900   10.8100
   22.0000   82.9100   72.6300   10.2800
   23.0000   81.3300  124.0900  -42.7600
   24.0000   65.6800    4.7100   60.9700
   25.0000   92.1700  113.9800  -21.8100
   26.0000   89.5400  119.1400  -29.6000
   27.0000   86.9100   77.9400    8.9700
   28.0000  115.0600   33.4200   81.6400
   29.0000   87.7800   96.2300   -8.4500
   30.0000   84.8000   33.7400   51.0600
   31.0000  123.5800   49.5400   74.0400
   32.0000   80.4000    6.4500   73.9500
   33.0000   41.0400  118.7300  -77.6900
   34.0000   48.8500   54.1000   -5.2500
   35.0000   45.9900   67.8500  -21.8600
   36.0000   35.0700   80.0900  -45.0200
   37.0000   80.1400   37.2600   42.8800
   38.0000   92.0700   84.2700    7.8000
   39.0000  192.5500   33.2300  159.3200
   40.0000   37.3400   86.6500  -49.3100
   41.0000   58.3800   53.1000    5.2800
   42.0000  104.9100   36.6300   68.2800
   43.0000   28.9000   95.8200  -66.9200
   44.0000   54.5600   97.4000  -42.8400
   45.0000   48.0800   99.1800  -51.1000
   46.0000   33.7600   29.7700    3.9900
   47.0000   31.2500  108.3900  -77.1400
   48.0000   88.6200   94.9000   -6.2800
   49.0000  108.5500   50.3800   58.1700
   50.0000   57.6800  131.1200  -73.4400
   51.0000  140.2200   42.7300   97.4900
   52.0000   67.9600   45.5800   22.3800
   53.0000   44.4400   37.8700    6.5700
   54.0000   63.6300   72.1100   -8.4800
   55.0000   86.1500   86.9300   -0.7800
   56.0000   19.1700   64.2200  -45.0500
   57.0000  143.8000  103.8600   39.9400
   58.0000   27.0400   32.5700   -5.5300
   59.0000   56.7000   61.2200   -4.5200
   60.0000   94.2800  104.6400  -10.3600
   61.0000   42.4500  114.5800  -72.1300
   62.0000   63.1900   74.5500  -11.3600
   63.0000   43.6700   42.3800    1.2900
   64.0000   40.1900   85.4300  -45.2400
   65.0000   42.9700   24.8400   18.1300
   66.0000   68.1500   66.6200    1.5300
   67.0000   69.1500  113.1300  -43.9800
   68.0000   15.0200  145.4100 -130.3900
   69.0000   68.4500   84.5000  -16.0500
   70.0000   94.0300   58.4500   35.5800
   71.0000   89.1200   57.4600   31.6600
   72.0000   74.6000   25.0700   49.5300
   73.0000   42.2200   95.6900  -53.4700
   74.0000   -5.0200  127.4000 -132.4200
   75.0000   53.8500  168.2200 -114.3700
   76.0000  117.3200   52.8800   64.4400
   77.0000   70.7600   72.9300   -2.1700
   78.0000  126.3300   46.1000   80.2300
   79.0000   50.9000   51.9000   -1.0000
   80.0000   43.9800   26.7800   17.2000
   81.0000   99.2500   69.3100   29.9400
   82.0000   74.3800   79.5600   -5.1800
   83.0000   71.9400    3.6700   68.2700
   84.0000   34.5100   59.1500  -24.6400
   85.0000   16.6600   74.4500  -57.7900
   86.0000   68.2100   80.0200  -11.8100
   87.0000   72.1500  100.1700  -28.0200
   88.0000   23.1900   96.7700  -73.5800
   89.0000   76.4800  100.4500  -23.9700
   90.0000   79.2600   36.5900   42.6700
   91.0000  120.5500   62.3700   58.1800
   92.0000  143.2100   73.8200   69.3900
   93.0000   31.4300   83.4700  -52.0400
   94.0000  119.3800  137.5300  -18.1500
   95.0000   57.1900  102.9200  -45.7300
   96.0000   58.7100   17.6700   41.0400
   97.0000   89.8700    0.0800   89.7900
   98.0000  133.2100   50.1700   83.0400
   99.0000   40.5600   86.9500  -46.3900
  100.0000   22.0800   29.3300   -7.2500
  101.0000   73.0600   87.7800  -14.7200
  102.0000   54.3600   30.4200   23.9400
  103.0000   13.9400   17.8700   -3.9300
  104.0000   48.0800   96.7500  -48.6700
  105.0000   84.0700    4.5500   79.5200
  106.0000   94.1700   70.3200   23.8500
  107.0000  118.8800   79.3000   39.5800
  108.0000   43.3900   47.1100   -3.7200
  109.0000   29.7700   32.5700   -2.8000
  110.0000  101.6400   56.5800   45.0600
  111.0000   43.7600   53.7100   -9.9500
  112.0000   39.8600   91.1400  -51.2800
  113.0000  108.9600  121.3700  -12.4100
  114.0000   68.8500   98.5600  -29.7100
  115.0000   63.9000   83.4100  -19.5100
  116.0000   12.4700  101.5500  -89.0800
  117.0000   31.8400  111.4500  -79.6100
  118.0000   96.8800  110.7000  -13.8200
  119.0000   99.3500   44.3700   54.9800
  120.0000   48.4000   97.7600  -49.3600
  121.0000   80.4200   74.9200    5.5000
  122.0000   -1.0800   24.7400  -25.8200
  123.0000   75.5600  145.0600  -69.5000
  124.0000   43.0000   23.1200   19.8800
  125.0000   63.3700   63.5200   -0.1500
  126.0000   66.7500   60.2600    6.4900
  127.0000  100.7600   24.4000   76.3600
  128.0000   36.6600   98.1600  -61.5000
  129.0000   49.3100  107.5600  -58.2500
  130.0000   88.2000   69.0300   19.1700
  131.0000   51.0800   98.6700  -47.5900
  132.0000   94.0600   42.1300   51.9300
  133.0000   54.5400  107.6500  -53.1100
  134.0000   55.4400  133.6000  -78.1600
  135.0000   40.2200   72.9400  -32.7200
  136.0000   69.0500   69.1000   -0.0500
  137.0000   88.0800   62.1200   25.9600
  138.0000   32.9900   30.5800    2.4100
  139.0000   97.2800   69.3100   27.9700
  140.0000   31.3200   86.4700  -55.1500
  141.0000  135.3400   30.6500  104.6900
  142.0000   79.3500   91.6900  -12.3400
  143.0000   66.7000   15.6100   51.0900
  144.0000   70.4700  132.6200  -62.1500
  145.0000   20.4400   40.4000  -19.9600
  146.0000   68.2300  106.6000  -38.3700
  147.0000   10.0900  111.0300 -100.9400
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Last edited by Ian Curtis : 27-04-2011 at 23:47. Reason: Reposted, forgot to include match number the first time around.
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Unread 27-04-2011, 23:51
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lucas View Post
I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match:
25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622
Spoiler for 1503:
Code:
Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3
5	25	217	3284	1503	3009	3622
27	525	447	2264	1503	3103	2660
39	148	1538	1503	1100	3358	2197
55	2437	2797	1503	3792	2415	228
67	2080	2655	1503624	3483	3138
74	1165	3478	3472	2039	1503	11
91	1503	27	1604	980	16	3880
105	1503	3456	1801	2815	3521	1829
131	1511	3612	842	3547	1503	3521
139	1503	2481	3242	1732	2809	353


I did the schedules for the teams of EWCP members and 1503 for Akash Rastogi and Nick Lawrence, and unfortunately 1503 got the worst draw, including playing against EWCP Team 2415. Using Ian's OPR for matches, 1503 only has an advantage in about half of their matches. Should be interesting to see how accurate those OPR numbers are.

First impressions say 148 walks through qualifying untouched with 1676, 2415, and 16 not too far behind, 1-2 losses each. Should be a great few days.
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Last edited by JackS : 28-04-2011 at 17:09.
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Unread 27-04-2011, 23:58
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Match 39 is gonna break the game.
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Unread 28-04-2011, 02:06
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Curtis View Post
I got a rudimentary sorter (by qualifying points only) working because I was interested. Columns are team number, OPR, QP. Interesting to see how teams "lucked out" or "unlucked out"

I *think* I got the full ranking working. Very interesting results... First column is team number, 2nd is OPR, 3rd is QP, 4th is cumulative opponents score (divide this by 10 to get RS). Remember this assumes the OPR predicted teams will win, so a good sensitivity analysis would look to see if some of these teams play in close matches which they might well lose. (For example, 525 is predicted to win Match 10 by less than a point)

[EDIT]I think there might be an error in my RP code. I haven't found a case where the qualifying points don't match up with a hand counted test case though. Really got to start on that homework assignment, so I'll leave these with a speculate at your own risk attached to them[/EDIT]

Here is my attempt at simulated rankings, using your match scores and an existing excel sheet of mine. I think I accounted for surrogate matches (3rd Match) correctly. Note the ThunderClucks win their surrogate match, but lose 2 others.

It begs the question again, why can't we go to 90 teams/division and eliminate these pointless surrogate matches?

Code:
Rank	Team #	QS	RS	Matches
1	525	20	68.80	10
2	148	20	50.62	10
3	1676	20	44.68	10
4	1538	18	67.90	10
5	3547	18	54.36	10
6	25	18	52.64	10
7	2848	18	51.08	10
8	27	18	48.98	10
9	2039	18	28.01	10
10	1730	16	65.86	10
11	217	16	63.26	11
12	624	16	62.75	10
13	234	16	58.62	10
14	78	16	56.90	10
15	88	16	53.22	10
16	3456	16	41.97	10
17	3138	14	66.10	10
18	2809	14	61.31	10
19	1732	14	59.72	10
20	2415	14	58.06	10
21	11	14	56.20	10
22	1731	14	55.53	10
23	2338	14	54.64	10
24	386	14	49.88	10
25	2481	14	49.73	10
26	233	12	63.62	10
27	179	12	62.50	10
28	1511	12	59.15	10
29	3284	12	56.48	10
30	1503	12	54.33	10
31	2122	12	53.29	10
32	340	12	51.09	10
33	2264	12	49.48	10
34	2342	12	45.80	11
35	353	12	45.79	10
36	836	10	57.65	10
37	494	10	53.44	10
38	447	10	45.99	10
39	1764	10	44.98	10
40	3483	10	41.38	10
41	1942	10	38.07	10
42	228	10	37.31	10
43	2662	10	33.91	10
44	1829	10	28.55	10
45	16	8	62.62	10
46	842	8	59.99	10
47	337	8	54.47	10
48	3009	8	52.21	10
49	2437	8	50.85	10
50	302	8	50.84	10
51	3521	8	49.66	10
52	811	8	49.40	10
53	1502	8	45.41	10
54	2797	8	44.12	10
55	3242	8	42.84	10
56	980	8	41.60	10
57	3536	8	41.53	10
58	1195	8	37.76	10
59	2815	8	35.07	10
60	3622	8	33.18	10
61	1801	8	32.68	10
62	3505	8	32.46	10
63	2046	6	59.20	10
64	1100	6	56.24	10
65	236	6	55.73	10
66	1710	6	51.05	10
67	3792	6	45.72	10
68	1984	6	38.99	10
69	79	6	38.86	10
70	3880	6	36.91	10
71	3612	6	34.43	10
72	3358	6	33.98	10
73	3472	6	32.92	10
74	3748	6	32.32	10
75	3278	6	29.36	10
76	2614	4	54.85	10
77	1108	4	54.66	10
78	3103	4	50.15	10
79	3478	4	42.83	10
80	1165	4	40.77	10
81	1604	4	40.56	10
82	2655	4	38.91	10
83	2197	4	33.92	10
84	3344	2	44.18	10
85	2974	2	44.11	10
86	2080	2	37.60	10
87	2660	2	36.56	10
88	3126	2	34.42	10
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Match 87 :/ That's one I definitely want to watch...unfortunately by webcast, but what can you do?
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Re: 2011 Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Lucas View Post
Here is my attempt at simulated rankings
I did the same thing but then looked at how many close matches there were (ie, within 25 points - for the minibot race.)

We (525) have 5 close matches, 148 has 2 and 1676 has 1. If we lose all 5 of the close matches we could drop below the 35th seed.

217, 234 and 3138 move to the top if they win the close matches rather than lose them.
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