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#46
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
Got it. -John |
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#47
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
So if I'm looking at the data right there was one team who won 10 matches and ended up ranked fifth? Were there some regionals that played more than 10 matches?
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#48
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
What you're seeing is that with 10 wins in a 10-match schedule, the lowest possible seed is 5th place. |
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#49
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Ooh! We're on Newton! Do we get figs?
Oughta be way fun. Come by 1676 and say hello, we'll be there from Wednesday as soon as they let us in, on. 'cept for the webhug and Bill's presentations of course. |
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#50
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
. Maybe it would have helped our first qual match at Philly because apparently we didn't have enough Newtons that match It is really too bad the Towers on your field will not Trigger because there is only 1 Newton ![]() OK, I'll stop now... |
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#51
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
There is a good chance of multiple no-loss teams vying for the #1 spot, so there might be a slight edge to teams with weaker minibots ![]() |
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#52
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
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#53
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Schedule is out (first one):
http://www2.usfirst.org/2011comp/events/Newton/schedulequal.html I haven't looked at much but 1503 has no scheduler luck in the 5th match: 25 217 3284 vs 1503 3009 3622 Last edited by The Lucas : 27-04-2011 at 23:37. |
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#54
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Can't wait until match 94. From Opr, it seems to be the super match.
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#55
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
I was too lazy to code up a ranking calculator earlier in the season (and I have homework due in the morning), but the following is a matrix of the OPR predicted match (using the OPR Joe used) results. 1st column is match number, 2nd is red alliance, 3rd is blue, 4th is the difference.
Newton Schedule Code:
1.0000 23.7000 51.5700 -27.8700
2.0000 137.4200 35.2700 102.1500
3.0000 12.2100 50.9100 -38.7000
4.0000 3.9900 72.3900 -68.4000
5.0000 159.3100 94.5200 64.7900
6.0000 117.9300 57.5600 60.3700
7.0000 13.4300 81.8500 -68.4200
8.0000 120.5500 71.6500 48.9000
9.0000 72.3300 35.3200 37.0100
10.0000 98.5800 99.5200 -0.9400
11.0000 69.1900 42.9500 26.2400
12.0000 77.3400 19.4700 57.8700
13.0000 56.2400 34.9900 21.2500
14.0000 91.3500 72.8700 18.4800
15.0000 86.5600 62.6000 23.9600
16.0000 117.2900 69.1400 48.1500
17.0000 5.3600 32.9600 -27.6000
18.0000 17.9200 101.6300 -83.7100
19.0000 54.9400 18.1200 36.8200
20.0000 115.0000 36.9600 78.0400
21.0000 38.4000 27.5900 10.8100
22.0000 82.9100 72.6300 10.2800
23.0000 81.3300 124.0900 -42.7600
24.0000 65.6800 4.7100 60.9700
25.0000 92.1700 113.9800 -21.8100
26.0000 89.5400 119.1400 -29.6000
27.0000 86.9100 77.9400 8.9700
28.0000 115.0600 33.4200 81.6400
29.0000 87.7800 96.2300 -8.4500
30.0000 84.8000 33.7400 51.0600
31.0000 123.5800 49.5400 74.0400
32.0000 80.4000 6.4500 73.9500
33.0000 41.0400 118.7300 -77.6900
34.0000 48.8500 54.1000 -5.2500
35.0000 45.9900 67.8500 -21.8600
36.0000 35.0700 80.0900 -45.0200
37.0000 80.1400 37.2600 42.8800
38.0000 92.0700 84.2700 7.8000
39.0000 192.5500 33.2300 159.3200
40.0000 37.3400 86.6500 -49.3100
41.0000 58.3800 53.1000 5.2800
42.0000 104.9100 36.6300 68.2800
43.0000 28.9000 95.8200 -66.9200
44.0000 54.5600 97.4000 -42.8400
45.0000 48.0800 99.1800 -51.1000
46.0000 33.7600 29.7700 3.9900
47.0000 31.2500 108.3900 -77.1400
48.0000 88.6200 94.9000 -6.2800
49.0000 108.5500 50.3800 58.1700
50.0000 57.6800 131.1200 -73.4400
51.0000 140.2200 42.7300 97.4900
52.0000 67.9600 45.5800 22.3800
53.0000 44.4400 37.8700 6.5700
54.0000 63.6300 72.1100 -8.4800
55.0000 86.1500 86.9300 -0.7800
56.0000 19.1700 64.2200 -45.0500
57.0000 143.8000 103.8600 39.9400
58.0000 27.0400 32.5700 -5.5300
59.0000 56.7000 61.2200 -4.5200
60.0000 94.2800 104.6400 -10.3600
61.0000 42.4500 114.5800 -72.1300
62.0000 63.1900 74.5500 -11.3600
63.0000 43.6700 42.3800 1.2900
64.0000 40.1900 85.4300 -45.2400
65.0000 42.9700 24.8400 18.1300
66.0000 68.1500 66.6200 1.5300
67.0000 69.1500 113.1300 -43.9800
68.0000 15.0200 145.4100 -130.3900
69.0000 68.4500 84.5000 -16.0500
70.0000 94.0300 58.4500 35.5800
71.0000 89.1200 57.4600 31.6600
72.0000 74.6000 25.0700 49.5300
73.0000 42.2200 95.6900 -53.4700
74.0000 -5.0200 127.4000 -132.4200
75.0000 53.8500 168.2200 -114.3700
76.0000 117.3200 52.8800 64.4400
77.0000 70.7600 72.9300 -2.1700
78.0000 126.3300 46.1000 80.2300
79.0000 50.9000 51.9000 -1.0000
80.0000 43.9800 26.7800 17.2000
81.0000 99.2500 69.3100 29.9400
82.0000 74.3800 79.5600 -5.1800
83.0000 71.9400 3.6700 68.2700
84.0000 34.5100 59.1500 -24.6400
85.0000 16.6600 74.4500 -57.7900
86.0000 68.2100 80.0200 -11.8100
87.0000 72.1500 100.1700 -28.0200
88.0000 23.1900 96.7700 -73.5800
89.0000 76.4800 100.4500 -23.9700
90.0000 79.2600 36.5900 42.6700
91.0000 120.5500 62.3700 58.1800
92.0000 143.2100 73.8200 69.3900
93.0000 31.4300 83.4700 -52.0400
94.0000 119.3800 137.5300 -18.1500
95.0000 57.1900 102.9200 -45.7300
96.0000 58.7100 17.6700 41.0400
97.0000 89.8700 0.0800 89.7900
98.0000 133.2100 50.1700 83.0400
99.0000 40.5600 86.9500 -46.3900
100.0000 22.0800 29.3300 -7.2500
101.0000 73.0600 87.7800 -14.7200
102.0000 54.3600 30.4200 23.9400
103.0000 13.9400 17.8700 -3.9300
104.0000 48.0800 96.7500 -48.6700
105.0000 84.0700 4.5500 79.5200
106.0000 94.1700 70.3200 23.8500
107.0000 118.8800 79.3000 39.5800
108.0000 43.3900 47.1100 -3.7200
109.0000 29.7700 32.5700 -2.8000
110.0000 101.6400 56.5800 45.0600
111.0000 43.7600 53.7100 -9.9500
112.0000 39.8600 91.1400 -51.2800
113.0000 108.9600 121.3700 -12.4100
114.0000 68.8500 98.5600 -29.7100
115.0000 63.9000 83.4100 -19.5100
116.0000 12.4700 101.5500 -89.0800
117.0000 31.8400 111.4500 -79.6100
118.0000 96.8800 110.7000 -13.8200
119.0000 99.3500 44.3700 54.9800
120.0000 48.4000 97.7600 -49.3600
121.0000 80.4200 74.9200 5.5000
122.0000 -1.0800 24.7400 -25.8200
123.0000 75.5600 145.0600 -69.5000
124.0000 43.0000 23.1200 19.8800
125.0000 63.3700 63.5200 -0.1500
126.0000 66.7500 60.2600 6.4900
127.0000 100.7600 24.4000 76.3600
128.0000 36.6600 98.1600 -61.5000
129.0000 49.3100 107.5600 -58.2500
130.0000 88.2000 69.0300 19.1700
131.0000 51.0800 98.6700 -47.5900
132.0000 94.0600 42.1300 51.9300
133.0000 54.5400 107.6500 -53.1100
134.0000 55.4400 133.6000 -78.1600
135.0000 40.2200 72.9400 -32.7200
136.0000 69.0500 69.1000 -0.0500
137.0000 88.0800 62.1200 25.9600
138.0000 32.9900 30.5800 2.4100
139.0000 97.2800 69.3100 27.9700
140.0000 31.3200 86.4700 -55.1500
141.0000 135.3400 30.6500 104.6900
142.0000 79.3500 91.6900 -12.3400
143.0000 66.7000 15.6100 51.0900
144.0000 70.4700 132.6200 -62.1500
145.0000 20.4400 40.4000 -19.9600
146.0000 68.2300 106.6000 -38.3700
147.0000 10.0900 111.0300 -100.9400
Last edited by Ian Curtis : 27-04-2011 at 23:47. Reason: Reposted, forgot to include match number the first time around. |
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#56
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
Spoiler for 1503:
I did the schedules for the teams of EWCP members and 1503 for Akash Rastogi and Nick Lawrence, and unfortunately 1503 got the worst draw, including playing against EWCP Team 2415. Using Ian's OPR for matches, 1503 only has an advantage in about half of their matches. Should be interesting to see how accurate those OPR numbers are. First impressions say 148 walks through qualifying untouched with 1676, 2415, and 16 not too far behind, 1-2 losses each. Should be a great few days. Last edited by JackS : 28-04-2011 at 17:09. |
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#57
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Match 39 is gonna break the game.
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#58
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Quote:
Here is my attempt at simulated rankings, using your match scores and an existing excel sheet of mine. I think I accounted for surrogate matches (3rd Match) correctly. Note the ThunderClucks win their surrogate match, but lose 2 others. It begs the question again, why can't we go to 90 teams/division and eliminate these pointless surrogate matches? Code:
Rank Team # QS RS Matches 1 525 20 68.80 10 2 148 20 50.62 10 3 1676 20 44.68 10 4 1538 18 67.90 10 5 3547 18 54.36 10 6 25 18 52.64 10 7 2848 18 51.08 10 8 27 18 48.98 10 9 2039 18 28.01 10 10 1730 16 65.86 10 11 217 16 63.26 11 12 624 16 62.75 10 13 234 16 58.62 10 14 78 16 56.90 10 15 88 16 53.22 10 16 3456 16 41.97 10 17 3138 14 66.10 10 18 2809 14 61.31 10 19 1732 14 59.72 10 20 2415 14 58.06 10 21 11 14 56.20 10 22 1731 14 55.53 10 23 2338 14 54.64 10 24 386 14 49.88 10 25 2481 14 49.73 10 26 233 12 63.62 10 27 179 12 62.50 10 28 1511 12 59.15 10 29 3284 12 56.48 10 30 1503 12 54.33 10 31 2122 12 53.29 10 32 340 12 51.09 10 33 2264 12 49.48 10 34 2342 12 45.80 11 35 353 12 45.79 10 36 836 10 57.65 10 37 494 10 53.44 10 38 447 10 45.99 10 39 1764 10 44.98 10 40 3483 10 41.38 10 41 1942 10 38.07 10 42 228 10 37.31 10 43 2662 10 33.91 10 44 1829 10 28.55 10 45 16 8 62.62 10 46 842 8 59.99 10 47 337 8 54.47 10 48 3009 8 52.21 10 49 2437 8 50.85 10 50 302 8 50.84 10 51 3521 8 49.66 10 52 811 8 49.40 10 53 1502 8 45.41 10 54 2797 8 44.12 10 55 3242 8 42.84 10 56 980 8 41.60 10 57 3536 8 41.53 10 58 1195 8 37.76 10 59 2815 8 35.07 10 60 3622 8 33.18 10 61 1801 8 32.68 10 62 3505 8 32.46 10 63 2046 6 59.20 10 64 1100 6 56.24 10 65 236 6 55.73 10 66 1710 6 51.05 10 67 3792 6 45.72 10 68 1984 6 38.99 10 69 79 6 38.86 10 70 3880 6 36.91 10 71 3612 6 34.43 10 72 3358 6 33.98 10 73 3472 6 32.92 10 74 3748 6 32.32 10 75 3278 6 29.36 10 76 2614 4 54.85 10 77 1108 4 54.66 10 78 3103 4 50.15 10 79 3478 4 42.83 10 80 1165 4 40.77 10 81 1604 4 40.56 10 82 2655 4 38.91 10 83 2197 4 33.92 10 84 3344 2 44.18 10 85 2974 2 44.11 10 86 2080 2 37.60 10 87 2660 2 36.56 10 88 3126 2 34.42 10 |
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#59
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
Match 87 :/ That's one I definitely want to watch...unfortunately by webcast, but what can you do?
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#60
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Re: 2011 Newton Division
I did the same thing but then looked at how many close matches there were (ie, within 25 points - for the minibot race.)
We (525) have 5 close matches, 148 has 2 and 1676 has 1. If we lose all 5 of the close matches we could drop below the 35th seed. 217, 234 and 3138 move to the top if they win the close matches rather than lose them. |
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