2011 Curie Division

[Joe Ross]

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (all 147 matches, using the FIRST match generator). I used each team's highest opr at any event for their contribution to a match. I calculated the standings for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

Team	OPR	Avg Rnk	Med Rnk	Mod Rnk	SD Rnk	Max Rnk	Min Rnk	#1 seed	Top 8	Avg QP	Med QP	Mode QP	StdevQP	Max QP	Min QP
2056	67.47	7.71	6	1	6.5	27	1	14	65	16.78	16	16	2.22	20	12
71	66.37	8.85	8	1	7.1	29	1	16	54	16.26	16	16	2.25	20	12
67	64.20	11.49	7	3	11.4	55	1	9	55	15.79	16	16	2.83	20	8
987	62.38	11.7	10	4	8.9	39	1	5	45	15.67	16	16	2.47	20	10
2363	57.94	12.49	10	5	10.7	50	1	8	49	15.67	16	14	2.79	20	8
1986	57.54	14.22	10	4	13.0	62	1	5	46	15.11	16	18	2.85	20	6
1678	55.54	13.5	12	2	10.3	52	1	5	40	15.24	16	14	2.58	20	8
1717	53.45	15.34	13	5	11.0	50	1	3	34	14.78	14.5	16	2.68	20	8
968	52.70	13.6	12	17	9.5	39	1	4	35	15.19	16	14	2.37	20	10
1983	49.30	18.57	16	20	12.3	52	1	2	20	14.11	14	14	2.70	20	8
180	49.19	19.46	17.5	8	12.6	53	2	0	26	13.94	14	16	2.76	20	8
2751	48.41	18.38	16	26	12.0	52	1	2	23	14.19	14	14	2.76	20	8
1923	48.29	18.78	15	14	12.6	63	2	0	23	14.08	14	14	2.65	18	6
768	47.86	17.17	14	2	14.1	61	1	2	31	14.72	16	14	3.02	20	8
599	46.68	17.98	14.5	6	14.7	76	1	4	31	14.42	14	14	3.07	20	4
1625	45.69	18.89	16.5	14	12.2	76	1	5	21	14.26	14	14	2.89	20	4
365	45.55	22.36	21.5	11	12.9	60	1	1	13	13.49	14	14	2.65	20	6
1559	44.63	22.91	21	9	16.0	77	1	2	17	13.49	14	14	3.28	20	4
573	43.65	23.12	21	26	15.8	76	2	0	17	13.37	14	14	3.16	20	4
103	42.83	27.58	27	30	15.2	80	1	2	10	12.47	12	12	2.97	20	4
51	42.69	25.06	22	27	16.6	84	1	3	16	12.98	14	14	3.29	20	2
245	41.58	23.21	20	27	15.6	67	1	2	17	13.39	14	12	3.24	20	6
1519	40.13	23.8	23	9	12.6	60	2	0	11	13.12	14	14	2.48	18	8
368	39.85	23.79	20.5	18	15.0	63	1	2	16	13.22	14	14	2.97	20	6
135	37.27	35.22	32.5	30	17.4	76	3	0	3	11.26	12	12	3.11	18	4
364	37.15	28.27	28.5	42	14.4	71	2	0	10	12.47	12	10	2.72	18	6
2081	36.51	29.7	28	29	16.7	77	4	0	10	12.24	12	12	3.18	18	4
1507	35.86	29.08	26	21	15.8	83	2	0	7	12.25	12	14	3.02	20	2
2471	33.72	34.53	35	38	15.5	75	2	0	4	11.35	12	12	2.98	20	4
176	33.36	33.65	33	43	16.2	75	1	1	6	11.66	12	10	3.01	20	4
1024	33.14	36.44	37	38	17.0	77	4	0	4	10.99	10	10	3.05	18	4
2996	31.74	34.68	32	32	16.5	77	8	0	1	11.41	12	12	2.94	16	4
316	31.61	35.56	36	30	16.3	77	2	0	4	11.22	11	10	3.04	20	4
1574	28.90	39.29	39.5	39	16.8	87	2	0	4	10.69	10	10	3.11	20	2
2826	27.85	38.2	36.5	37	18.4	85	4	0	2	10.84	11	12	3.27	18	2
1927	26.85	41.32	42.5	53	19.1	80	5	0	3	10.42	10	8	3.35	18	4
141	26.44	41.12	42	28	18.1	81	1	1	6	10.45	10	10	3.14	18	4
57	26.11	41.78	40	34	19.9	85	1	1	3	10.28	10	12	3.61	20	2
2702	25.38	44.26	42.5	34	17.3	81	1	1	1	9.88	10	12	2.96	20	4
1741	24.78	40.62	41	41	19.0	80	2	0	1	10.62	10	10	3.36	18	4
2990	23.64	43.96	42	40	16.6	79	11	0	0	9.85	10	10	2.87	16	4
126	23.40	47.19	50	53	16.9	80	5	0	2	9.44	9.5	8	3.01	18	4
1675	22.93	46.56	45.5	31	18.1	85	7	0	1	9.49	10	10	3.19	18	2
687	21.59	45.9	44	54	16.4	81	10	0	0	9.64	10	10	2.79	16	2
1626	21.38	44.89	43	54	16.9	81	8	0	1	9.9	10	10	3.01	17	4
1241	21.20	44.06	44	56	18.5	81	7	0	1	9.99	10	10	3.20	18	4
3507	20.70	45.83	46	56	18.5	85	11	0	0	9.7	10	8	3.15	16	2
2177	20.60	50.21	49.5	46	18.5	86	8	0	1	8.85	8	10	3.25	17	2
3130	19.37	51.66	54	66	19.2	88	9	0	0	8.73	8	8	3.42	16	0
2102	19.17	49.37	51.5	44	18.8	85	6	0	1	9.19	9.5	10	3.31	18	2
166	19.03	47.22	46	44	18.4	84	5	0	2	9.5	10	10	3.30	18	2
20	17.41	53.02	54.5	53	18.1	85	7	0	2	8.56	8	8	3.19	18	2
3630	17.40	50.08	52.5	45	17.4	82	7	0	1	9.11	8.5	8	2.91	18	4
122	16.93	52.08	51	39	16.9	88	22	0	0	8.69	9	10	3.02	14	0
2377	16.33	53.46	54.5	59	17.1	87	10	0	0	8.43	8	8	3.02	16	2
3784	16.00	51.75	54	72	18.8	82	7	0	2	8.78	8	8	3.21	18	2
60	15.86	52.48	53	42	16.9	85	11	0	0	8.67	8	8	2.91	16	0
3799	15.01	52.51	52	78	17.9	86	5	0	1	8.72	8	10	3.14	18	2
3459	11.35	59.61	60	60	15.5	88	14	0	0	7.73	8	8	2.78	15	0
3473	10.26	61.56	63	66	15.4	88	27	0	0	7.22	8	8	2.79	13	0
1891	10.14	59.28	61	69	17.1	87	11	0	0	7.65	8	6	3.05	16	0
375	10.09	62.38	66	71	16.8	88	14	0	0	7.08	6	6	3.14	16	0
335	8.31	63.24	66	83	15.3	88	23	0	0	7.02	6	6	2.87	14	0
2359	7.29	62.77	63	48	15.1	88	23	0	0	7.15	8	8	2.80	14	0
3477	7.10	61.31	63	69	16.5	88	15	0	0	7.26	7.5	6	2.94	14	2
3739	7.09	62.44	63.5	49	16.8	88	19	0	0	7.24	8	8	3.06	14	0
2761	6.67	65.55	69	59	15.2	88	22	0	0	6.56	6	6	2.80	14	0
2283	4.91	65.13	67.5	85	16.5	88	13	0	0	6.63	6	8	3.22	16	0
3158	4.64	60.9	62.5	71	17.5	88	16	0	0	7.52	8	6	3.04	14	0
1739	4.28	66.03	68	73	15.1	88	23	0	0	6.67	6	6	2.89	14	0
2783	4.26	66.98	70.5	80	16.6	88	17	0	0	6.4	6	8	3.12	14	0
3766	4.20	66.48	67.5	67	14.8	88	32	0	0	6.59	6	6	2.69	12	1
3172	4.05	67.09	68	73	12.8	88	37	0	0	6.49	6	8	2.61	12	0
2040	3.94	64.94	68	62	15.9	88	14	0	0	6.84	6	6	2.92	16	0
246	2.63	67.68	70	80	14.2	88	21	0	0	6.34	6	4	2.83	14	0
2486	2.39	67.63	72.5	73	15.6	86	24	0	0	6.45	6	6	2.89	14	2
401	1.59	69.81	73	79	13.3	88	35	0	0	6.05	6	6	2.55	12	0
2556	1.32	70.52	73.5	86	13.8	87	33	0	0	5.83	6	6	2.67	12	2
3160	0.21	71.26	76	80	14.2	88	30	0	0	5.81	6	4	2.73	12	0
3037	-0.79	72.81	76	85	14.5	88	27	0	0	5.42	6	6	2.90	13	0
3651	-0.89	71.88	76.5	82	14.9	88	24	0	0	5.55	5	4	2.98	14	0
3553	-1.03	70.62	75	81	14.6	88	22	0	0	5.89	6	4	2.77	14	0
3239	-1.78	68.49	71	88	15.6	88	32	0	0	6.19	6	4	3.08	12	0
1836	-1.86	70.87	73	73	13.7	88	27	0	0	5.95	6	6	2.69	13	0
3624	-4.24	75.23	81	87	14.2	88	7	0	1	4.93	4	4	2.99	18	0
3492	-5.07	73.06	76	88	13.0	88	32	0	0	5.39	6	2	2.75	12	0
3685	-6.82	76.8	81	88	12.1	88	34	0	0	4.51	4	6	2.87	12	0
120	-10.36	77.74	80	87	10.0	88	47	0	0	4.63	4	6	2.55	10	0

[Alpha Beta]

Interesting that after 100 potential match schedules 24 different teams appear as the #1 seed, including the 38th, 39th, and 40th teams in the OPR listing. This division looks wide open with match pairings playing a significant role in the fight for the #1 seed. I would hate to see the list of matches that had us finishing 62nd in the field. I don't doubt that it could happen though.

Thanks Joe for helping us anticipate the best and worst possible outcomes of the match pairing algorithm.

[Jeff Pahl]

Looks like a great division this year!! Looking forward to seeing a lot of awesome robots and cheering on a Curie win on Einstein.

And now, a Public Service Announcement from your friendly neighborhood LRI: PLEASE DO NOT FORGET YOUR BAG & TAG LOCKUP FORMS!!! if you last competed at a B&T event and then shipped "Bag in Crate". It will make both of our Wednesday evenings a lot better

See Ya'll Soon!!!

[rmhooks573]

nothing like the read deal though. no simulation can show the intense competition of curie this year!!!

[JennaBrown]

To start I would like to congratulate all of the teams who are coming to nationals in St. Louis! All of your hard work and dedication is paying off!
Like any other competition there are some things that are bound to happen. Programs aren't going to run right, things will break, and countless of other things could go wrong (knock on wood!). But have no fear, MOEbile Pit will be there! For years MOE 365 has run a successful "mobile pit" which consists of a team of students that helps other teams with any problems that they encounter. But this year we are stepping into the 21st century with the help of Twitter! If at any time during the competition your team finds themselves in need of help, Tweet @MOEbilePit with your problem/request! This is an experimental way of communication through which other FIRST teams can connect to our MOEbile Pit when they need assistance! If you have any questions feel free to post them, or Tweet them to @MOEbilePit .
In the words of my greatest inspiration, Dean Kamen, "Good luck, and see you in St. Louis!"

[B-Bot]

Two days till St lewis. Cant wait to see you all.

[Blackphantom91]

Originally Posted by rmhooks573

nothing like the read deal though. no simulation can show the intense competition of curie this year!!!

Your right no simulation can create results that are desired. Its only used for reference purposes as are most statistics. Also it extremely helps scouters like yourself have an easier time looking though data and making the best decisions. All things like that should be taken with a grain of salt because of unfortunate events.

[rmhooks573]

Originally Posted by Blackphantom91

Your right no simulation can create results that are desired. Its only used for reference purposes as are most statistics. Also it extremely helps scouters like yourself have an easier time looking though data and making the best decisions. All things like that should be taken with a grain of salt because of unfortunate events.

and whenever there is a rematch because of field errors, that ALWAYS can change seeds. we had a match like that last year and this yea; It was in our favor

[Blackphantom91]

Originally Posted by rmhooks573

and whenever there is a rematch because of field errors, that ALWAYS can change seeds. we had a match like that last year and this yea; It was in our favor

Exactly, stuff like that you take it with a grain of salt. Top seeds aren't guaranteed a win. That's why we scout to try and predict the most unpredictable outcomes and try to figure out a way around them. For example last year 1114,469 through all statistics were going to win Einstein but didn't. Things like that can happen especially in this game, things are just out of our control.

[Ian Curtis]

For those following along at home (and looking for the best matches) these are the OPR predicted results. First Column is match #, 2nd is Red Score, 3rd is Blue and 4th is the difference.

1	   86.1100   90.9100   -4.8000
2	   64.5700  101.8500  -37.2800
3	  111.2500   62.3100   48.9400
4	   66.0700   -7.6400   73.7100
5	  103.3600  109.5200   -6.1600
6	   88.9100   57.4000   31.5100
7	   58.7500   48.4300   10.3200
8	   24.4000   60.8700  -36.4700
9	   60.3100   83.3700  -23.0600
10	  121.1100   70.6700   50.4400
11	   72.6400   18.3300   54.3100
12	   87.8500  125.1800  -37.3300
13	   70.3300   40.9300   29.4000
14	  117.1700   77.7700   39.4000
15	   16.7900   66.9800  -50.1900
16	   80.3300   47.5700   32.7600
17	   49.2600   55.5200   -6.2600
18	   64.5500  122.9300  -58.3800
19	   56.7400  134.7600  -78.0200
20	   61.1000   56.7300    4.3700
21	   86.0800   98.0600  -11.9800
22	   51.3400   62.2000  -10.8600
23	  128.1300  118.0400   10.0900
24	   52.4400   96.4700  -44.0300
25	   84.0800   60.5800   23.5000
26	   38.2100   71.0100  -32.8000
27	   71.2700   54.5100   16.7600
28	   87.1100   89.1600   -2.0500
29	   33.1900   57.8100  -24.6200
30	   18.1600  140.2200 -122.0600
31	  113.4200   72.1900   41.2300
32	   76.7800  123.5500  -46.7700
33	   30.9600  137.8600 -106.9000
34	   31.6200   77.8300  -46.2100
35	   48.2500   49.6200   -1.3700
36	   55.7500   54.6500    1.1000
37	   64.6000  139.3100  -74.7100
38	   28.8500   73.3100  -44.4600
39	   98.3300   45.4900   52.8400
40	   49.5700  106.4100  -56.8400
41	   51.9500   25.9800   25.9700
42	   58.0900  113.5200  -55.4300
43	   57.7900   81.9700  -24.1800
44	  102.0400   73.5100   28.5300
45	   83.9300   72.4700   11.4600
46	   68.0500   66.8600    1.1900
47	   90.8000   69.9700   20.8300
48	   38.3500   85.6300  -47.2800
49	   60.7700  -19.0400   79.8100
50	   68.9700  112.5400  -43.5700
51	  100.9200   97.8300    3.0900
52	   81.1900   83.2200   -2.0300
53	  117.5300   66.3500   51.1800
54	   82.2400   73.9400    8.3000
55	   70.4500   17.2200   53.2300
56	   98.0200  104.2100   -6.1900
57	   41.9000    3.5800   38.3200
58	   82.3400   52.3900   29.9500
59	  124.6300   71.1900   53.4400
60	   43.6100   45.4000   -1.7900
61	   48.1000   36.7000   11.4000
62	  107.5300   17.4300   90.1000
63	   90.4900   89.9300    0.5600
64	   48.3300   63.8200  -15.4900
65	   42.2700  130.0500  -87.7800
66	  110.1500   23.1800   86.9700
67	   36.2000   91.3700  -55.1700
68	  124.0700   88.1800   35.8900
69	  107.9300    9.4300   98.5000
70	  152.8200   78.4800   74.3400
71	   80.6100   46.8900   33.7200
72	  140.3400   58.5800   81.7600
73	   83.3300   94.7000  -11.3700
74	   31.9400   55.8300  -23.8900
75	   72.0800   82.9500  -10.8700
76	   51.5900   32.0600   19.5300
77	   82.3900   54.8100   27.5800
78	   98.4400  111.2600  -12.8200
79	  143.4400  113.3400   30.1000
80	   62.1800  107.4300  -45.2500
81	   90.9200   74.0300   16.8900
82	   50.3300   77.3000  -26.9700
83	   99.7400   70.0900   29.6500
84	   51.0300   34.4700   16.5600
85	   27.4200   60.1700  -32.7500
86	   18.7700  107.2900  -88.5200
87	   98.5000   36.0800   62.4200
88	   68.8000  104.2100  -35.4100
89	  114.1700   40.8800   73.2900
90	   52.3300  128.5500  -76.2200
91	  122.5900   32.7700   89.8200
92	   58.8200  134.7400  -75.9200
93	   56.5100   47.7600    8.7500
94	   26.5900   58.0600  -31.4700
95	  110.8200   77.9500   32.8700
96	   75.2900  111.8500  -36.5600
97	   75.2900   26.6400   48.6500
98	   50.4200  127.3400  -76.9200
99	   53.5900  112.5500  -58.9600
100	   89.4100   48.0600   41.3500
101	   97.4300   26.8000   70.6300
102	   26.9700  103.7400  -76.7700
103	   44.4300   67.9200  -23.4900
104	   85.7100   54.2500   31.4600
105	   79.5000   96.4300  -16.9300
106	  118.1500  156.3100  -38.1600
107	   68.7700  125.8100  -57.0400
108	   96.3400   80.0300   16.3100
109	   38.0800   65.7400  -27.6600
110	  114.4700   98.5100   15.9600
111	   56.3200   81.5700  -25.2500
112	   42.5200   56.7500  -14.2300
113	   81.1600    0.3000   80.8600
114	   58.8200   42.9900   15.8300
115	   39.7800  134.7500  -94.9700
116	   54.2000   69.2900  -15.0900
117	   47.5700    8.8300   38.7400
118	   70.3500   67.9400    2.4100
119	   99.4200  117.8500  -18.4300
120	    9.4500   65.4400  -55.9900
121	   39.3100   93.8700  -54.5600
122	  124.9400   70.2100   54.7300
123	   83.4700   92.5600   -9.0900
124	   50.2800   11.2900   38.9900
125	   38.2000   92.8100  -54.6100
126	   77.1500   49.6200   27.5300
127	   55.7200   44.6000   11.1200
128	   33.4600  104.7200  -71.2600
129	  139.7500   27.2300  112.5200
130	   76.5100  127.0100  -50.5000
131	   99.6900   63.6900   36.0000
132	   49.7400   97.7600  -48.0200
133	   80.6100   83.1800   -2.5700
134	   76.0400   95.4700  -19.4300
135	   63.2200   49.8600   13.3600
136	   10.3800  120.0600 -109.6800
137	   99.3000   74.9400   24.3600
138	   42.0400   64.4600  -22.4200
139	   46.5700   48.4300   -1.8600
140	   21.5900   67.9000  -46.3100
141	   55.2800   94.1900  -38.9100
142	   75.2300  124.4400  -49.2100
143	   70.5700  126.7200  -56.1500
144	  113.4700  109.4800    3.9900
145	   45.0800   80.5900  -35.5100
146	   73.9600   51.8200   22.1400
147	   55.4600   80.0500  -24.5900

My rankings code doesn't eliminate surrogate matches, so I don't want to post the whole thing. But checking just the top 8 I have:

(Team number, OPR, QP, Cumulative Opponent's Score)

67	64.2	20	586.57
987	62.38	18	743.24
2056	67.47	18	645.81
1717	53.45	16	766.65
1983	49.3	16	756.74
1678	55.54	16	659.42
968	52.7	16	650.19
71	66.37	16	626.74

[rmhooks573]

team 573 is on a roll!!!!!

[JaneYoung]

I'm hearing that Jane-Doll got to sit at the officials table sporting a balloon hat. That makes me laugh. Thank you to whoever made the balloon hat possible - I'm sure she is enjoying it.

Jane

[dtengineering]

Well, we might only be approaching halfway through, but one of my favorite Ontario teams is in first, followed by one of my favorite Washington teams.

Go Theory6... Go Skunks... I'll be cheering for both of you!

Jason

[Megan514]

Team PyroTech is doing... Meh. xD Last time I checked, we were in 72nd. (probably lower now-- we lost our last match! (Just checked-- 78th xD)) During our last match of the day, autonomous worked flawlessly. We tried to hang a few tubes and didn't succeed. When we went to the minibot pole, the minibot fell off and pulled out the cord to our C RIO! I think we should at least get bonus points for that, we couldn't have done that if we tried!!

Overall, it was a great day. Definitley a different feel than our regional. Talked to some great people and teams! And to be honest, none of us really care that we don't have the best ranking, we're just excited that we're even in St. Lois!

See you all on the field tomorrow!

[cziggy343]

We, 2751, had a weird day with lots of bad luck... minibot fell off... belt on the elevator snapped... etc etc... We are happy to be 2-2 right now, but we expect to improve a lot tomorrow