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#1
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2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.
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#2
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
The IRI match schedule is always amazing to see. Normally at Champs you look at your matches to see if you get to play with or against any powerhouses. That entire match schedule is filled with amazing matches.
I'm just sorry I have to watch it on the webcast ![]() |
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#3
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Jacob what time do you want me to stop lining teams up for practice matches?
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#4
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Quote:
just thinking about it make me tired. Early bedtime for me.... |
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#5
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.
OPRs: Code:
Team Rating 111 73.92475128 1114 71.88417816 2056 67.4726181 71 66.36641693 1503 65.43378448 67 64.19780731 987 62.37874603 217 61.00844574 74 60.72906876 781 60.21537018 330 60.0241394 234 58.7022171 2415 57.92324829 25 57.04471588 33 56.70747375 48 56.17886353 1538 55.88414383 341 55.70706177 118 55.24176788 1730 54.07565689 359 51.8482933 469 50.5631218 11 48.94416428 2122 47.48712921 1126 46.36853409 399 45.98612976 1625 45.68838882 3098 45.60036469 2016 45.56438065 3138 45.35906982 973 43.65608215 573 43.65222549 51 42.68559265 2337 42.47858047 548 42.42366791 16 41.77279663 245 41.57632446 1732 41.14710617 125 40.98505783 233 40.32484055 1519 40.13070679 494 39.87134171 135 37.2743187 2081 36.51197052 931 35.80182648 1718 34.89387512 1501 34.52032089 292 33.35364532 829 33.35157013 1024 33.13980865 1038 32.54025269 1477 31.75396919 910 30.07277298 2826 27.85185432 1640 27.30614471 1018 25.61044884 1741 24.7753849 1902 24.38159561 1675 22.93331528 868 20.68315125 447 17.94485474 45 16.51804352 1720 11.3045454 303 10.9291687 1747 5.723826885 461 3.081658363 Code:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 Red Blue 1 829 573 25 1675 1126 1501 134 104 2 781 67 118 33 910 292 179 120 3 2826 1538 1741 234 548 469 109 152 4 461 3138 1114 1519 1038 2056 120 140 5 1640 217 1477 2415 1902 494 120 122 6 341 868 111 399 1747 330 151 112 7 1018 135 71 1625 45 931 129 99 8 987 3098 2337 2122 245 303 150 100 9 447 359 973 1503 1720 1732 114 117 10 233 16 74 11 125 2016 143 136 11 1730 1718 1024 51 2081 48 122 136 12 330 910 1477 3138 2826 217 122 134 13 829 2337 1640 1018 1114 399 102 144 14 987 469 1747 781 45 1720 119 88 15 11 3098 1741 973 1519 111 120 158 16 1675 2056 51 359 931 67 133 152 17 1501 2081 234 1503 74 71 131 192 18 447 573 118 2122 233 135 117 124 19 16 868 494 1126 1730 548 103 142 20 2415 1038 1718 125 33 1732 126 139 21 1024 1902 461 2016 292 1538 60 135 22 303 341 25 48 245 1625 124 144 23 829 51 217 118 973 1747 137 105 24 1126 330 1018 2081 359 1741 132 114 25 16 1519 3138 2337 868 2415 127 121 26 447 1730 292 987 1477 11 105 143 27 1538 67 1675 135 74 111 143 172 28 341 2056 1503 548 1718 233 188 117 29 245 3098 931 781 2016 461 124 109 30 910 1038 71 469 25 1640 129 135 31 303 48 125 573 45 1902 108 85 32 1625 1501 2826 399 1732 1024 109 120 33 2122 234 1720 494 33 1114 117 169 34 2081 2056 1018 447 2415 781 130 136 35 1640 2016 1718 3138 67 111 108 183 36 461 910 11 303 868 573 82 76 37 1538 973 399 48 931 1126 146 138 38 71 1114 16 987 51 1741 180 130 39 1519 1732 1730 25 1747 292 135 96 40 1675 125 1503 469 1024 2122 129 131 41 217 45 1038 3098 234 233 111 145 42 548 1720 1477 1501 2337 135 85 114 43 118 359 74 341 494 2826 168 124 44 245 330 33 829 1902 1625 159 103 45 1018 987 125 25 67 868 129 142 46 1730 931 1741 1503 573 217 115 170 47 1732 11 2337 781 48 234 132 175 48 118 111 2081 461 45 548 166 62 49 1625 1747 1538 2122 1640 2056 108 141 50 399 2016 1675 303 494 447 115 69 51 16 330 1902 135 1718 3098 126 118 52 1126 51 292 2826 1038 1720 122 72 53 1024 71 3138 359 233 829 144 125 54 74 2415 1501 245 1114 910 154 144 55 469 33 1519 973 341 1477 148 132 56 1718 494 45 25 461 2337 92 102 57 303 1732 931 1640 67 1741 88 116 58 573 48 1024 3098 2056 1720 133 124 59 548 2826 245 1747 1114 447 112 96 60 233 2415 51 292 469 330 141 144 61 1477 2016 1038 868 829 1503 111 119 62 217 399 135 1519 2081 125 144 118 63 118 910 234 1675 987 1625 144 131 64 71 111 1126 2122 341 781 186 163 65 1018 1902 3138 973 1730 74 95 159 66 359 16 11 1538 33 1501 143 148 67 1114 829 48 447 469 931 161 105 68 2826 1503 399 67 2415 3098 139 168 69 217 245 868 71 1675 1732 124 130 70 1747 303 233 1477 1018 1718 57 93 71 1720 1741 25 2056 118 11 93 171 72 1024 1625 973 1038 2337 494 123 115 73 573 292 341 2081 3138 1538 133 138 74 2122 330 45 2016 1501 16 124 123 75 234 987 461 1640 135 1126 124 110 76 74 1902 781 51 1519 548 145 125 77 111 33 359 125 1730 910 183 125 78 3098 1114 2081 1477 118 1675 155 110 79 1625 399 1720 1718 16 217 103 138 80 135 3138 494 1747 245 1503 122 113 81 1018 2016 1519 573 2826 234 112 131 82 45 11 2415 1024 829 341 124 122 83 303 1501 781 1730 1038 1538 106 143 84 461 973 67 548 330 71 111 168 85 359 48 2122 1741 868 292 155 79 86 33 25 447 1640 74 51 132 131 87 233 931 125 910 1126 2337 117 118 88 469 1732 2056 1902 987 111 159 160 89 2016 1730 2415 1720 118 71 158 132 90 1477 67 1519 45 245 1024 136 92 91 868 1114 135 973 781 1718 130 139 92 2337 33 1503 25 217 330 164 178 93 987 399 548 359 573 1038 150 129 94 3098 1126 469 74 1625 3138 143 152 95 1732 910 51 1018 1538 494 114 122 96 1501 341 447 1741 125 461 109 69 97 2122 931 1747 11 2081 1902 89 110 98 234 2056 292 829 303 16 159 86 99 1640 111 1675 2826 48 233 124 124 Code:
Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP RS MP 1 111 8 0 1 9 17 124 186 2 74 8 1 0 9 16 130.22 192 3 48 7 1 1 9 15 114.78 175 4 33 7 2 0 9 14 129 183 5 71 7 2 0 9 14 127.11 192 6 330 7 2 0 9 14 123.11 178 7 3138 7 2 0 9 14 120 183 8 67 7 2 0 9 14 118.11 183 9 234 7 2 0 9 14 115.44 175 10 2415 6 3 0 9 12 130.56 168 11 469 6 3 0 9 12 126.11 159 12 217 6 3 0 9 12 120.22 178 13 987 6 3 0 9 12 120.11 160 14 25 6 3 0 9 12 118 178 15 1538 6 3 0 9 12 117.11 148 16 1519 6 3 0 9 12 115.11 158 17 135 6 3 0 9 12 114.78 172 18 399 6 3 0 9 12 113.22 150 19 1503 5 4 0 9 10 125.89 192 20 781 5 4 0 9 10 122.56 179 21 3098 5 4 0 9 10 119.33 168 22 2056 5 4 0 9 10 118.89 188 23 1126 5 4 0 9 10 118.22 186 24 16 5 4 0 9 10 118.11 180 25 1732 5 4 0 9 10 118 159 26 973 5 4 0 9 10 117.78 159 27 1114 5 4 0 9 10 117.11 180 28 2122 5 4 0 9 10 113.89 163 29 11 5 4 0 9 10 112.89 171 30 2081 5 4 0 9 10 112.11 166 31 1730 5 4 0 9 10 111 159 32 1024 5 4 0 9 10 110.89 144 33 118 5 4 0 9 10 110.44 179 34 1902 5 4 0 9 10 106 160 35 1018 5 4 0 9 10 105.78 144 36 548 5 4 0 9 10 104.11 168 37 359 4 5 0 9 8 120.67 183 38 2337 4 5 0 9 8 114.22 164 39 1501 4 5 0 9 8 112.67 154 40 245 4 5 0 9 8 111.67 159 41 573 4 5 0 9 8 110.56 170 42 494 4 5 0 9 8 107.44 169 43 829 4 5 0 9 8 107 161 44 292 4 5 0 9 8 99.11 159 45 233 3 5 1 9 7 116.11 145 46 1640 3 5 1 9 7 113.33 141 47 2826 3 5 1 9 7 111.89 139 48 341 3 6 0 9 6 121.78 188 49 910 3 6 0 9 6 119.78 144 50 51 3 6 0 9 6 119.22 141 51 1625 3 6 0 9 6 115 152 52 868 3 6 0 9 6 109.44 151 53 1718 3 6 0 9 6 108.11 139 54 2016 3 6 0 9 6 106.67 158 55 447 3 6 0 9 6 104 136 56 1477 3 6 0 9 6 103.78 143 57 461 3 6 0 9 6 89.89 124 58 1675 2 6 1 9 5 118.56 143 59 125 2 7 0 9 4 114.89 139 60 1038 2 7 0 9 4 113.22 143 61 931 2 7 0 9 4 110.33 152 62 45 2 7 0 9 4 97.11 124 63 1720 1 8 0 9 2 103.11 132 64 1741 1 8 0 9 2 101.89 130 65 1747 1 8 0 9 2 96 119 66 303 1 8 0 9 2 87.89 124 Code:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 Red Blue 64 71 111 1126 2122 341 781 186 163 92 2337 33 1503 25 217 330 164 178 88 469 1732 2056 1902 987 111 159 160 Code:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 Red Blue 99 1640 111 1675 2826 48 233 124 124 88 469 1732 2056 1902 987 111 159 160 86 33 25 447 1640 74 51 132 131 74 2122 330 45 2016 1501 16 124 123 87 233 931 125 910 1126 2337 117 118 40 1675 125 1503 469 1024 2122 129 131 82 45 11 2415 1024 829 341 124 122 5 1640 217 1477 2415 1902 494 120 122 60 233 2415 51 292 469 330 141 144 9 447 359 973 1503 1720 1732 114 117 Last edited by Joe Ross : 21-07-2011 at 18:40. |
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#6
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
the problem with this is that it's working off of old data. For example, 461 didn't work at Boilermaker (our only event this year), but at MARC we were finalists.
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#7
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Quote:
I though the highest score possible for IRI was around 165-170? |
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#8
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Just curious, Joe...what was the accuracy of your previous computed predictions?
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#9
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Quote:
Seems OPR could use something other than a straight normal distribution prediction? Maybe lognormal? ![]() |
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#10
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Great job Joe.
In terms of accuracy, I think somebody on CD did a study this year and found that using highest OPR is a little more accurate than other ways this year. I put in the predictions for championship divisions in the spreadsheet that I published using highest OPR. Team 2834 2011_Scouting_Database Championship v4 http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174 Since JB987 asked for it, I put in a few formula in that spreadsheet and this is what I got for Championship by division during qualifying rounds in terms of percent of time it predicted a win. Archimedes 73.4% Curie 74.1% Galileo 76.9% Newton 81.0% Is it perfect? No. Close matches that could have gone either way, mistakes made by teams and better strategy by underdog alliance explained why it was not perfect. What about the actual scores? Some were amazingly close. Knowing the prediction ahead of time that you have an uphill battle allows you to change your strategy and hopefully come out on top. For IRI, the accuracy may be lower. These are all top notch teams and everyone can score with minibot. However only two minibots can score so that explains why the predicted OPR exceeds the maximum allowed. Also there are only so many tubes to hang unlike the soccer balls last year that can be recycled. Does it matter? No, if an alliance has a higher combined predicted OPR, it still has a higher chance of winning. The extra minibot may be just an insurance if one partner cannot get their's up. Since this is offseason, there are a lot of other factors. New drivers, upgrade to robots, etc. that will reduce the accuracy. The predicted score also does not take into account human error: referee that threw a tube right betweeen the tower and your partner's robot when they were about to go to the tower to score their minibot, the extra time to get around the tube costed us a tiebreak match and was eliminated in quarterfinal. These things happen and I am okay with it. It helps to explain why predictions are not always correct. |
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#11
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Thru match 12: 6 predicted wins, 6 upsets
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#12
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
The prediction stuff up in the middle of the thread has the alliances backwards.
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#13
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
After match 12, it got 14 in a row correct. Overall, 67% today.
Sorry, I didn't notice that blue was first in the posted schedule. |
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#14
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Ranking report! (not official - should be 99% accurate
)P.S. - I loved the Fresh Prince of IRI act ![]() |
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#15
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Re: 2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE
Anyone have the final qualification match results?
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