2011 IRI PRELIMINARY MATCH SCHEDULE

[whytheheckme]

Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.

[Justin Montois]

The IRI match schedule is always amazing to see. Normally at Champs you look at your matches to see if you get to play with or against any powerhouses. That entire match schedule is filled with amazing matches.

I'm just sorry I have to watch it on the webcast

[Koko Ed]

Originally Posted by whytheheckme

Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.

Jacob what time do you want me to stop lining teams up for practice matches?

[Koko Ed]

Originally Posted by whytheheckme

Assuming everyone shows up to the event tomorrow, (and no additional bribes are collected), we will run the attached Match Schedule.

76 matches on day one.
just thinking about it make me tired.
Early bedtime for me....

[Joe Ross]

I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.

OPRs:

Team	Rating
111	73.92475128
1114	71.88417816
2056	67.4726181
71	66.36641693
1503	65.43378448
67	64.19780731
987	62.37874603
217	61.00844574
74	60.72906876
781	60.21537018
330	60.0241394
234	58.7022171
2415	57.92324829
25	57.04471588
33	56.70747375
48	56.17886353
1538	55.88414383
341	55.70706177
118	55.24176788
1730	54.07565689
359	51.8482933
469	50.5631218
11	48.94416428
2122	47.48712921
1126	46.36853409
399	45.98612976
1625	45.68838882
3098	45.60036469
2016	45.56438065
3138	45.35906982
973	43.65608215
573	43.65222549
51	42.68559265
2337	42.47858047
548	42.42366791
16	41.77279663
245	41.57632446
1732	41.14710617
125	40.98505783
233	40.32484055
1519	40.13070679
494	39.87134171
135	37.2743187
2081	36.51197052
931	35.80182648
1718	34.89387512
1501	34.52032089
292	33.35364532
829	33.35157013
1024	33.13980865
1038	32.54025269
1477	31.75396919
910	30.07277298
2826	27.85185432
1640	27.30614471
1018	25.61044884
1741	24.7753849
1902	24.38159561
1675	22.93331528
868	20.68315125
447	17.94485474
45	16.51804352
1720	11.3045454
303	10.9291687
1747	5.723826885
461	3.081658363

Match Results:

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	Red 	Blue
1	829	573	25	1675	1126	1501	134	104
2	781	67	118	33	910	292	179	120
3	2826	1538	1741	234	548	469	109	152
4	461	3138	1114	1519	1038	2056	120	140
5	1640	217	1477	2415	1902	494	120	122
6	341	868	111	399	1747	330	151	112
7	1018	135	71	1625	45	931	129	99
8	987	3098	2337	2122	245	303	150	100
9	447	359	973	1503	1720	1732	114	117
10	233	16	74	11	125	2016	143	136
11	1730	1718	1024	51	2081	48	122	136
12	330	910	1477	3138	2826	217	122	134
13	829	2337	1640	1018	1114	399	102	144
14	987	469	1747	781	45	1720	119	88
15	11	3098	1741	973	1519	111	120	158
16	1675	2056	51	359	931	67	133	152
17	1501	2081	234	1503	74	71	131	192
18	447	573	118	2122	233	135	117	124
19	16	868	494	1126	1730	548	103	142
20	2415	1038	1718	125	33	1732	126	139
21	1024	1902	461	2016	292	1538	60	135
22	303	341	25	48	245	1625	124	144
23	829	51	217	118	973	1747	137	105
24	1126	330	1018	2081	359	1741	132	114
25	16	1519	3138	2337	868	2415	127	121
26	447	1730	292	987	1477	11	105	143
27	1538	67	1675	135	74	111	143	172
28	341	2056	1503	548	1718	233	188	117
29	245	3098	931	781	2016	461	124	109
30	910	1038	71	469	25	1640	129	135
31	303	48	125	573	45	1902	108	85
32	1625	1501	2826	399	1732	1024	109	120
33	2122	234	1720	494	33	1114	117	169
34	2081	2056	1018	447	2415	781	130	136
35	1640	2016	1718	3138	67	111	108	183
36	461	910	11	303	868	573	82	76
37	1538	973	399	48	931	1126	146	138
38	71	1114	16	987	51	1741	180	130
39	1519	1732	1730	25	1747	292	135	96
40	1675	125	1503	469	1024	2122	129	131
41	217	45	1038	3098	234	233	111	145
42	548	1720	1477	1501	2337	135	85	114
43	118	359	74	341	494	2826	168	124
44	245	330	33	829	1902	1625	159	103
45	1018	987	125	25	67	868	129	142
46	1730	931	1741	1503	573	217	115	170
47	1732	11	2337	781	48	234	132	175
48	118	111	2081	461	45	548	166	62
49	1625	1747	1538	2122	1640	2056	108	141
50	399	2016	1675	303	494	447	115	69
51	16	330	1902	135	1718	3098	126	118
52	1126	51	292	2826	1038	1720	122	72
53	1024	71	3138	359	233	829	144	125
54	74	2415	1501	245	1114	910	154	144
55	469	33	1519	973	341	1477	148	132
56	1718	494	45	25	461	2337	92	102
57	303	1732	931	1640	67	1741	88	116
58	573	48	1024	3098	2056	1720	133	124
59	548	2826	245	1747	1114	447	112	96
60	233	2415	51	292	469	330	141	144
61	1477	2016	1038	868	829	1503	111	119
62	217	399	135	1519	2081	125	144	118
63	118	910	234	1675	987	1625	144	131
64	71	111	1126	2122	341	781	186	163
65	1018	1902	3138	973	1730	74	95	159
66	359	16	11	1538	33	1501	143	148
67	1114	829	48	447	469	931	161	105
68	2826	1503	399	67	2415	3098	139	168
69	217	245	868	71	1675	1732	124	130
70	1747	303	233	1477	1018	1718	57	93
71	1720	1741	25	2056	118	11	93	171
72	1024	1625	973	1038	2337	494	123	115
73	573	292	341	2081	3138	1538	133	138
74	2122	330	45	2016	1501	16	124	123
75	234	987	461	1640	135	1126	124	110
76	74	1902	781	51	1519	548	145	125
77	111	33	359	125	1730	910	183	125
78	3098	1114	2081	1477	118	1675	155	110
79	1625	399	1720	1718	16	217	103	138
80	135	3138	494	1747	245	1503	122	113
81	1018	2016	1519	573	2826	234	112	131
82	45	11	2415	1024	829	341	124	122
83	303	1501	781	1730	1038	1538	106	143
84	461	973	67	548	330	71	111	168
85	359	48	2122	1741	868	292	155	79
86	33	25	447	1640	74	51	132	131
87	233	931	125	910	1126	2337	117	118
88	469	1732	2056	1902	987	111	159	160
89	2016	1730	2415	1720	118	71	158	132
90	1477	67	1519	45	245	1024	136	92
91	868	1114	135	973	781	1718	130	139
92	2337	33	1503	25	217	330	164	178
93	987	399	548	359	573	1038	150	129
94	3098	1126	469	74	1625	3138	143	152
95	1732	910	51	1018	1538	494	114	122
96	1501	341	447	1741	125	461	109	69
97	2122	931	1747	11	2081	1902	89	110
98	234	2056	292	829	303	16	159	86
99	1640	111	1675	2826	48	233	124	124

Standings

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	RS	MP
1	111	8	0	1	9	17	124	186
2	74	8	1	0	9	16	130.22	192
3	48	7	1	1	9	15	114.78	175
4	33	7	2	0	9	14	129	183
5	71	7	2	0	9	14	127.11	192
6	330	7	2	0	9	14	123.11	178
7	3138	7	2	0	9	14	120	183
8	67	7	2	0	9	14	118.11	183
9	234	7	2	0	9	14	115.44	175
10	2415	6	3	0	9	12	130.56	168
11	469	6	3	0	9	12	126.11	159
12	217	6	3	0	9	12	120.22	178
13	987	6	3	0	9	12	120.11	160
14	25	6	3	0	9	12	118	178
15	1538	6	3	0	9	12	117.11	148
16	1519	6	3	0	9	12	115.11	158
17	135	6	3	0	9	12	114.78	172
18	399	6	3	0	9	12	113.22	150
19	1503	5	4	0	9	10	125.89	192
20	781	5	4	0	9	10	122.56	179
21	3098	5	4	0	9	10	119.33	168
22	2056	5	4	0	9	10	118.89	188
23	1126	5	4	0	9	10	118.22	186
24	16	5	4	0	9	10	118.11	180
25	1732	5	4	0	9	10	118	159
26	973	5	4	0	9	10	117.78	159
27	1114	5	4	0	9	10	117.11	180
28	2122	5	4	0	9	10	113.89	163
29	11	5	4	0	9	10	112.89	171
30	2081	5	4	0	9	10	112.11	166
31	1730	5	4	0	9	10	111	159
32	1024	5	4	0	9	10	110.89	144
33	118	5	4	0	9	10	110.44	179
34	1902	5	4	0	9	10	106	160
35	1018	5	4	0	9	10	105.78	144
36	548	5	4	0	9	10	104.11	168
37	359	4	5	0	9	8	120.67	183
38	2337	4	5	0	9	8	114.22	164
39	1501	4	5	0	9	8	112.67	154
40	245	4	5	0	9	8	111.67	159
41	573	4	5	0	9	8	110.56	170
42	494	4	5	0	9	8	107.44	169
43	829	4	5	0	9	8	107	161
44	292	4	5	0	9	8	99.11	159
45	233	3	5	1	9	7	116.11	145
46	1640	3	5	1	9	7	113.33	141
47	2826	3	5	1	9	7	111.89	139
48	341	3	6	0	9	6	121.78	188
49	910	3	6	0	9	6	119.78	144
50	51	3	6	0	9	6	119.22	141
51	1625	3	6	0	9	6	115	152
52	868	3	6	0	9	6	109.44	151
53	1718	3	6	0	9	6	108.11	139
54	2016	3	6	0	9	6	106.67	158
55	447	3	6	0	9	6	104	136
56	1477	3	6	0	9	6	103.78	143
57	461	3	6	0	9	6	89.89	124
58	1675	2	6	1	9	5	118.56	143
59	125	2	7	0	9	4	114.89	139
60	1038	2	7	0	9	4	113.22	143
61	931	2	7	0	9	4	110.33	152
62	45	2	7	0	9	4	97.11	124
63	1720	1	8	0	9	2	103.11	132
64	1741	1	8	0	9	2	101.89	130
65	1747	1	8	0	9	2	96	119
66	303	1	8	0	9	2	87.89	124

There are 3 matches where each alliance has a combined OPR of more then 158:

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	Red 	Blue
64	71	111	1126	2122	341	781	186	163
92	2337	33	1503	25	217	330	164	178
88	469	1732	2056	1902	987	111	159	160

Here are the closest matches:

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	Red 	Blue
99	1640	111	1675	2826	48	233	124	124
88	469	1732	2056	1902	987	111	159	160
86	33	25	447	1640	74	51	132	131
74	2122	330	45	2016	1501	16	124	123
87	233	931	125	910	1126	2337	117	118
40	1675	125	1503	469	1024	2122	129	131
82	45	11	2415	1024	829	341	124	122
5	1640	217	1477	2415	1902	494	120	122
60	233	2415	51	292	469	330	141	144
9	447	359	973	1503	1720	1732	114	117

Alliances are predicted to score more then 100 points 88% of the time.

[Frenchie461]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.
(-snip-)

the problem with this is that it's working off of old data. For example, 461 didn't work at Boilermaker (our only event this year), but at MARC we were finalists.

[Ankit S.]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

I used Ed Law's Post Championship Highest Event OPRs to simulate the match schedule.

(more snipping)

In the match results I saw a couple of REALLY high scores, around 180-190.

I though the highest score possible for IRI was around 165-170?

[JB987]

Just curious, Joe...what was the accuracy of your previous computed predictions?

[GearsOfFury]

Originally Posted by BeltSanderRocks

In the match results I saw a couple of REALLY high scores, around 180-190.

I though the highest score possible for IRI was around 165-170?

17 1501 2081 234 1503 74 71 131 192

Seems OPR could use something other than a straight normal distribution prediction? Maybe lognormal?

[Ed Law]

Great job Joe.

In terms of accuracy, I think somebody on CD did a study this year and found that using highest OPR is a little more accurate than other ways this year. I put in the predictions for championship divisions in the spreadsheet that I published using highest OPR.

Team 2834 2011_Scouting_Database Championship v4

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174

Since JB987 asked for it, I put in a few formula in that spreadsheet and this is what I got for Championship by division during qualifying rounds in terms of percent of time it predicted a win.

Archimedes 73.4%
Curie 74.1%
Galileo 76.9%
Newton 81.0%

Is it perfect? No. Close matches that could have gone either way, mistakes made by teams and better strategy by underdog alliance explained why it was not perfect. What about the actual scores? Some were amazingly close. Knowing the prediction ahead of time that you have an uphill battle allows you to change your strategy and hopefully come out on top.

For IRI, the accuracy may be lower. These are all top notch teams and everyone can score with minibot. However only two minibots can score so that explains why the predicted OPR exceeds the maximum allowed. Also there are only so many tubes to hang unlike the soccer balls last year that can be recycled. Does it matter? No, if an alliance has a higher combined predicted OPR, it still has a higher chance of winning. The extra minibot may be just an insurance if one partner cannot get their's up.

Since this is offseason, there are a lot of other factors. New drivers, upgrade to robots, etc. that will reduce the accuracy.

The predicted score also does not take into account human error: referee that threw a tube right betweeen the tower and your partner's robot when they were about to go to the tower to score their minibot, the extra time to get around the tube costed us a tiebreak match and was eliminated in quarterfinal. These things happen and I am okay with it. It helps to explain why predictions are not always correct.

[mwmac]

Thru match 12: 6 predicted wins, 6 upsets

[dodar]

The prediction stuff up in the middle of the thread has the alliances backwards.

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by mwmac

Thru match 12: 6 predicted wins, 6 upsets

After match 12, it got 14 in a row correct. Overall, 67% today.

Originally Posted by dodar

The prediction stuff up in the middle of the thread has the alliances backwards.

Sorry, I didn't notice that blue was first in the posted schedule.

[whytheheckme]

Ranking report! (not official - should be 99% accurate )

P.S. - I loved the Fresh Prince of IRI act

[KF987]

Anyone have the final qualification match results?