Predictions Week 1: Rumbling towards the Field

[Looking Forward]

After a two year hiatus, Looking Forward has returned to the business of making predictions and commentary. This time, there's a new format. Instead of breaking it down event by event, a weekly overarching state of "the game" approach will be taken and how it evolves week to week. That will be followed by a series of bullet points to guide you through more specific details, including commentary about each event and some of the individual team prognostications you originally opened this thread to read.

Enough formalities, on to the feature presentation.

Play in the first week of competition is always an intriguing experiment as teams, and the volunteers and staff, feel through the game for the first time. The only 100% true Week 1 constant is technical difficulty, from both the teams and the field. Teams are rarely running at 100% effectiveness at their first event in general, and that will be a major factor this weekend. Couple that with a relative lack of superstar teams that attend week 1 events, and you have yourself a recipe for some stumbling through the early stages of Rebound Rumble, especially at the non-premier events.

The opening weekend of competition is usually slower than the following weeks, and typically more defensive and end-game oriented. However, in games that require more "out of the box" defensive mindsets (such as 2008 and 2009), defenders have an equally large learning curve and it opens a window of opportunity for offensive teams. I expect 2012 to follow that trend, as "traditional" FRC defense will be less effective than many other years (and certainly less so than 2010 and 2011). Box-on-wheels robots that can't cross the bump or manipulate the bridge won't even be able to move to the correct zone to defend, which immediately cuts down the population of potential defenders. Effective defensive teams will learn their lessons from 2011, and attempt to prevent offensive teams from loading and reaching scoring position more than they will "camp out" in offensive areas (as in 2007 and 2010). Smart offensive teams simply have too many options between a mid-field protected area and the physical features of the fender to be bullied by defensive teams once set up.

That being said, don't expect a Week 1 offensive firestorm. Shooting won't be as easy as many team videos suggest and a lot of refinement is likely required for many teams' targeting strategy and software. Few teams will be able to align and range-find on the fly (or even particularly quickly), which is going to slow down the pace of the game and reduce scores. The teams that can will prosper.

Advanced strategies, such as ball management and timed offense, are often non-existent in week one. When used, they'll still be in their infancy and likely won't reflect their optimal effectiveness or proper style by the time of the championship event. Expect the game to be more or less straight-forward at the onset. Teams will attempt to score when they have the opportunity. The more refined tactics will start to appear on Saturday, namely when one elimination alliance is significantly outgunned. I wouldn't hold my breath for them to be particularly game changing at this point, though.

Some remarks:

• It'll be interesting to see what this week's "reasonably astute observer" thinks about some of the more unique balancing methods. Namely in Texas, where the most controversial of all (118) is playing. None of Chief Delphi users' opinions really matter on this issue as much as the head ref's, and the precedent set here will impact the rest of the FRC community.
• Will the ranking system in FiM and MAR impact the value of the coopertition bridge at those events? Wins earn points towards advancing to those region's championship events, while standings beyond the alliance captains do not. Will the mid-range teams already out of contention for a top 8 seed opt to gun for an additional win rather than the standings points? Doubt most teams think that far ahead, but some bubble candidates certainly will take notice. If not now, then definitely at their second district.
• The two FiM districts this weekend paint a stark contrast. Kettering is a strong, veteran event while Gull Lake is one of the youngest and shallowest of Michigan's districts. Only nine teams in Gull Lake number under 2000, while Kettering has that many three-digit teams (and three more teams with numbers under 100).
• How will the crop of SRT sponsored teams fair in Michigan this weekend? Thirteen teams in Gull Lake and three in Kettering are sponsored by the software developers, all with numbers north of 3500. More teams are sponsored by them than by JCPenney at Gull Lake.
• Many of the Israeli robots have a unique charm about them. Rather than the increasingly homogenized look of most FRC bots, the different vendors and relatively isolated design philosophy of the Israeli teams queues memories from FIRST's earlier days. A lot more unorthodox design from those teams than the North American teams loaded with COTS parts and influence from past powerhouses.
• Hatboro-Horsham will provide the Mid-Atlantic with its first taste of the district format. It's going to be a notable shake-up from the long standing New Jersey and Philadelphia regionals. Much of the veteran population is escaping to nearby regional events anyway.
• Speaking of Hatboro-Horsham, it has one of the more competitive fields of the MAR districts. The headliners are 341 and 2016. Both of those teams have a realistic shot at reaching the finals, but the rest of the teams on their schedule won't make it easy.
• It will be interesting to see how Code Red Robotics bounces back from missing the Michigan State Championship last season. 2771 earned a trip to the finals at the Niles District last year, but it was their 3rd event and didn't count towards the MSC standings. Fortunately for them, Gull Lake seems like a perfect event for a bubble candidate to pick up a lot of qualification points.
• Indiana is staging a minor invasion of the Smoky Mountain regional. 234, 292, 447, and 1501 are all making the road trip down Route 75 to Knoxville. They represent the brunt of a strong out of town contingent to make up for the younger group of locals. Expect Cyber Blue and THRUST to have the biggest impact on the field, but all four should be elimination contenders.
• The Indiana teams won't have to travel nearly as far as the three Canadian teams competing in Tennessee, though. Like the Indiana bunch, 772, 2200, and 2386 all will be decently competitive and have good chances of playing on Saturday afternoon. MMRambotics' heavy, physical style should fit right in home with the east coast style of play, but the Sabre Bytes have the best chance of the trio to take home hardware.
• 3835 has a truly hulk-ish machine that looks like it should be able to contend in Israel. If their drivers and software are up to par, expect this second year team to be an early selection.
• It's going to be obvious which teams have trained their inbounders and which haven't. Fortunately for those who haven't given their human players practice time, this can be masked by the fact each alliance only needs one inbounder passing in balls. But for the handful of teams at each event who know what the inbounder is truly capable of, they could have a marked advantage. And I'm not just referring to the 118s and 148s of the world.
• Few alliances will be tougher to stop this weekend than a union of 399 and 1538. Both teams have what appear to be one of their best machines yet, not to mention that 1538 is being coached by the driver of the team they're effectively "cloning." While there are certainly a handful of other highly competitive teams on the San Diego roster, if those two are allowed to pair up, it might be game over.
• Team Nemesis could make some noise this weekend in Pennsylvania. 2590 has had some highs and lows in their history, but they had an effective scoring machine that propelled them to the semi-finals in DC last year and a competitive shooter this year. It's unlikely they can power past some of the higher end teams alone, but don't be shocked if they pull an upset or two on the right alliance.
• After a pair of division finals appearances in their first four years, the Who'sCTEKs have more or less faded from the spotlight in New England, with less and less hardware headed their direction in the past few years. Can 716 turn the momentum this year after a successful outing at Suffield? Or will the physical nature of the New Hampshire event upset their close-range scoring?
• Autonomous scoring usually doesn't play a huge role in the first couple weeks of competition, but that could change this year. Teams that already have their auto kinks worked out will have a huge advantage. Expect many qualification matches to be won by autonomous scoring and balancing points.
• 1319 couldn't buy their way into the semis last year, with quarter-final exits at all three regionals they attended. Flash Jordan doesn't have the same reputation as Simbot Jordan, but they hope to carry the same type of success as their NBA and FRC namesakes into Tennessee. I wouldn't be surprised if they end their streak of early exits on Saturday.
• A number of teams opted for having multiple intake devices. The Rocketeers will be one of the first on the field this weekend. 20 will be a tough out in New Hampshire, but their success will hinge more on their targeting ability than their dual-intake.
• Another interesting decision regarding intake and shooter alignment belongs to 862. Will their side-facing shooter simplify basket targeting or just provide inconvenience? It could certainly aid in scoring along the fender. Regardless, they'll have an uphill battle to climb against teams like the Bees, Martians, and Wings of Fire. A spot in the quarters is well within their grasp, but they'll need favorable match-ups to advance further.
• In terms of raw mechanical engineering and design, 1730 has one heck of a machine. But the pressure will be on for them to defend their KC regional title after their most successful season in team history last year. Can team Driven step up and emerge as a powerhouse team?
• Quick and reliable scoring is always a crux issue in FRC match-ups. But teams were very hesitant to align with teams that couldn't score on the top row last year. Without the cooperative nature of scoring this season, the two-point lay-up bots have a lot more potential, and should play a big role, especially in early weeks. Will any of them be able to win an event as a primary scorer remains to be seen.
• 4322 is a rookie lay-up machine that looks to be a solid pick in San Diego. Their autonomous alone will be enough to give them a huge edge in many qualification matches, and in a field that won't win any laurels for its depth, they could be a useful component of a contending elimination alliance.
• Alamo will likely be the most lop-sided of the events this weekend, with the explosive growth of young teams saturating the Texas events with inexperienced attendees. Past the big two names, the second tier crop of 245, 488, 704, and 1477 will be the primary candidates to lead elimination alliances.
• Team Titanium has always had impressive machines, but their ability to read the strategy of the game has dramatically improved as they've become more seasoned. Now a full fledged FRC veteran, 1986 looks to continue their rise in 2012 with a design that seems to realize the important elements of the game. Their ball collection might be their best "plus" attribute, and can give them an edge over some of the other contenders. Expect them to be one of the top three or four teams in Kansas City.
• The Israel regional has come a long way since the early dominance of 1574. But expect them to be a major player in the regional again this year, with fellow 2005 rookie 1577 as another favorite.
• It'll be interesting to see how many teams are willing to "break the mold" of the successful qualification match strategies when building their elimination alliance, and factor in the third robot on the bridge during alliance selection and eliminations. Will it be worth the extra time that all three robots will have to spend? The extra risk of losing 40 points in bonuses? Will captains considering targeting bots with smaller bridge footprints during alliance selection?
• The Bomb Squad's design is simple, yet genius. Integrated, multifunctional mechanisms combined with repeatable actions. No wasted motions or additional points of failure. 16 should be a powerhouse in Missouri.
• 78 sacrificed two CIMs from their drive system to power their shooter. Will the key provide enough protection from the famed New England defense to validate that decision? Regardless, Air Strike will be one of the better teams at Granite State this weekend.
• 1918 certainly seems to be the favorite heading into Gull Lake. They've won three of their four district competitions over the past two years, and they reached the finals in their only loss. Add a 2010 MSC victory and 2009 MSC and Newton finals appearances on top of that, and the NC Gears have firmly planted themselves among the Michigan elite. A strong 2012 campaign will go a long way towards building a history that can rival some of Michigan's elders.
• On the note of the Michigan elder's, 33 is coming out to defend their Kettering victory from last year. They've taken their aesthetic game to the next level, with a bridge manipulating stinger and a lack of bare aluminum. Little doubt exists here that their performance will be on par with their looks. It'll be surprising to see them leave with less than silver.
• Vulcan Robotics will be defending their home turf later in the season, but opens on the road at Hatboro-Horsham. 1218 has taken home at least a finalist medal in each of the past three years, and has an Einstein appearance in 2010 as well. They boast a long range shooter that should turn some heads in the Philadelphia 'burbs. Their accuracy and rate of fire will govern their success, but paired with another powerhouse team they could be deadly.
• Perhaps trying to dim the spotlight on the Robowranglers was a wise choice for 148. They still put out a promo video, but it didn't set the CD community ablaze like their more revealing past videos. Even with the changes in Greenville, make no mistake that 148 will have a target on their back in San Antonio. They've endured the defensive storm in the past, so anything short of a medal round appearance for them would be very surprising.

Remember, this isn't meant to be a comprehensive guide. It's simply not possible to cover every team, or even every contender, at every event. If you don't like the predictions or want more attention, go out there and prove it.

Until next week...

[Barry Bonzack]

ahh, Looking Forward is back. It must be competition season.

[jblay]

Omg, can't believe LF is back. I missed you so LF.

[V_Chip]

Comprehensive predictions.

Thank you Looking Forward.

[Sean Raia]

This is genius, its great to see this "tradition" is back again!

[AlecMataloni]

I'm really glad you're back! I can never seem to get into professional sport analyses in this format, but the fact that it's about FRC makes all the difference.

I'm really looking forward (pun intended) to your analysis for Troy in week 5.

[bam-bam]

Great reads into games and robots!

[thefro526]

Nice to have you back LF!

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

[*]Vulcan Robotics will be defending their home turf later in the season, but opens on the road at Hatboro-Horsham. 1218 has taken home at least a finalist medal in each of the past three years, and has an Einstein appearance in 2010 as well. They boast a long range shooter that should turn some heads in the Philadelphia 'burbs. Their accuracy and rate of fire will govern their success, but paired with another powerhouse team they could be deadly.

1218 Made it to Einstein in 2009 with 222 and 2753, not 2010.

[bhaiu116]

So excited to see my team mentioned in a LF post! As a chip-in, I bet 2337 will field another beautifully simple yet amazingly effective machine at the Kettering District and we'll all appreciate their 'do a few things well and avoid spreading yourself too thin' design philosophy.

[James1902]

I'm so excited Looking Forward is back!!!! Not only is it wonderfully entertaining but it brings a commentary that legitimizes the sport of FIRST in the same way that football or basketball commentary does. I appreciate all the hard work that's put into these posts and I can't wait to read all the insight as the season goes on.

Thanks for coming out of retirement Looking Forward.

[familyguyfreak]

So great to have you back LF. Can't wait to see your analysis of Bayou and Lone Star this year.

[DampRobot]

LF, are these predictions for individual teams based on their team videos, or personal knowledge of the teams? I know there are a lot of very competitive teams out there that don't post videos on CD. I hope your team highlights will include high-preforming teams from past regionals as the weeks go on.

Thank you for the wonderful analysis. I'm glad someone is doing such a comprehensive "state of the game" analysis. I look forward to the next weeks, and hopefully seeing my team up there among all the greats.

[EricH]

Originally Posted by DampRobot

LF, are these predictions for individual teams based on their team videos, or personal knowledge of the teams?

In the past, it's been largely tipster-based. You know something about some of the teams in a given area, drop LF a line.

Oh, and LF made one mistake. 488 as a second-tier team doesn't work much outside Indiana or Michigan. In most if not all other areas, they're a first-tier team.

[Jon Stratis]

I know reading this brought up a couple of sure-to-be key points to discuss with our drive and scouting teams that may not be obvious going into the competition season. Thanks!

[GalDylan]

Seriously excited to see Israel Regional predictions, at last on the FIRST & Chief Delphi map!