Week--2 All regionals OPR

[stundt1]

Using oprnet to calculate opr.

Its week 1 and week 2 regionals.

[LeelandS]

Ouch. Page 11. I guess we got our act together and our robot in working order a little late. We should be better at St.Louis, after a little more improvement.

[Sean Raia]

Originally Posted by Tetraman

I don't think I understand. Coop bridge doesn't provide points anyway, so why would a balance on that bridge lower the number of points your robot is expected to make each match?

I believe Stundt1 is speaking of the opportunity cost of balancing those co-op bridges is not accounted for. Meaning if you spent a lot of time working on that while you could have been making baskets it doesnt take that into account.

[stundt1]

Originally Posted by Sean Raia

I believe Stundt1 is speaking of the opportunity cost of balancing those co-op bridges is not accounted for. Meaning if you spent a lot of time working on that while you could have been making baskets it doesnt take that into account.

Yes it takes to in account if you say double balanced but not coopertition balanced. Thats why its off a lot this year.

[Tetraman]

Originally Posted by Leeland1126

Ouch. Page 11. I guess we got our act together and our robot in working order a little late. We should be better at St.Louis, after a little more improvement.

That's why I find this OPR really odd. I mean, I can get why 1126 is low, because like your team had scores of 0, 3, 12 and so on, you also had a 50 with 340, and the matches you had with us were mostly in the high 30s and 40s, where your robot scored the majority of those points.

It's a system that's over my head is all.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by stundt1

Using oprnet to calculate opr.

Its week 1 and week 2 regionals.

There appear to be many anomalies in the analysis. See attachment.

Some teams are listed twice, with different OPRs, for the same week.

Several teams are listed 3 times with different OPRs.

[stundt1]

Ill fix those tommrow. Thanks for pointing out sorry for the mistakes.

[Ether]

Raw data is available to compute separate power ratings for Hybrid, Bridge, TeleOp, and Foul Points*.

Would that be of interest to anyone ?


*Foul Points would be computed for the Team committing the foul.

[stundt1]

Ether I can add hybrid teleop and bridge balancing rankings tommrow, if you wish?

[om23]

Originally Posted by Ether

Raw data is available to compute separate power ratings for Hybrid, Bridge, TeleOp, and Foul Points*.

Would that be of interest to anyone ?

Yes! Raw data would be awesome!

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by dodar

So OPR is how many points you scored?

Basically, yes... OPR (Offensive Power Rating) is an approximation at how many points your team scores in the average match. Since the co-op bridge doesn't provide any points, it's not included, even though it's a testament to the value of your robot.

Originally Posted by dodar

How is the OPR calculated this year?

OPR is calculated the same way every year... I am a little fuzzy on the details, but basically OPR is found using Matrix & Linear Algebra to quickly solve a complex set of simultaneous equations that yields teams' average contribution in points.

I believe two equations exist for each match, one for the red alliance (A + B + C = X) and one for the blue alliance (D + E + F = Y)... in which A, B, C, D, E, and F are the teams on each alliance and X and Y are the match scores. If A and D competed with each other in a later match, two more equations might exist: A + D + G = R and H + I + J = S. I believe these equations are then approximated incrementally until values are determined for each team.

That's all a combination of speculation and secondhand information, but regardless, each team is treated as a constant for an entire competition. If you start out very poorly, then become very good, there's no telling what OPR you'll end up with!

Originally Posted by Tetraman

That's why I find this OPR really odd. I mean, I can get why 1126 is low, because like your team had scores of 0, 3, 12 and so on, you also had a 50 with 340, and the matches you had with us were mostly in the high 30s and 40s, where your robot scored the majority of those points.

It's a system that's over my head is all.

OPR would work perfectly if all robots performed perfectly consistently... If Robot A always scored 26 points, Robot B always scored 2, Robot C always scored 16, etc.... The primary reason why OPR is flawed is because it has to approximate the average number of points robots score, and that obviously is non-constant! Teams like 1126 at FLR this year (who improve over the course of an event) are generally underestimated by OPR because their offensive contribution changes so much.

Additionally, most OPR calculations (OPRnet included) don't include elimination matches... I think partially because the alliances are the same for each match, making them far less useful in terms of calculating OPR. Again, this is speculation, not the result of comparing OPR calculations of the same event that exclude and include elim matches.

For any seeking to learn a bit more about OPR, I recommend Ed Law's explanation for how it works... His statistic CCWM is calculated the same way as OPR, but looks at the winning (or losing) margin instead of alliance score. See: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174?


Nathan

[372 lives on]

i like how the winning alliance at Oregon isn't on the first or second page yet several other teams at Oregon are much closer to the top.

seems accurate.

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by Ether

There appear to be many anomalies in the analysis. See attachment.

Some teams are listed twice, with different OPRs, for the same week.

Several teams are listed 3 times with different OPRs.

I don't understand where the error came from if the OP used oprnet to calculate the OPR.

This has been discussed before but for those that didn't catch it, I will repeat it again. We should not compare OPRs across different regionals/district events. It looks like that is what the OP did. The reason is some events are stronger than others and it is not a fair comparison. The better way to do it is what I called True World Ranking where every match including elimination rounds of every regional/district are all assembled into a giant matrix so all interactions between teams are taken into account. It is not perfect but it will give each team one OPR number that is a reflection of their whole season so far.

This year I also calculated the OPR for hybrid, bridge, teleop and cooperition separately using the same method. I publish all these data after each week in the following CD link if anyone is interested.

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174

[stundt1]

I pasted the week 1 events wrong ED. Thats where the error came from.

[Bongle]

Basically, yes... OPR (Offensive Power Rating) is an approximation at how many points your team scores in the average match. Since the co-op bridge doesn't provide any points, it's not included, even though it's a testament to the value of your robot.

The CP bridge is included in OPRNet this year - I treat it as 5 points per CP point that your alliance earns, since there is an opportunity cost aspect to it. A balanced CP bridge could have been a single robot on a balanced alliance bridge.

Same with the separate 'bridge' calculation - since your robot's bridge skills are clearly related to your ability to balance the CP bridge.

I'm not sure if I still think it's a good idea including it in the overall OPR calculation, but it's too late for me to take it back out now.