Latest MAR District Rankings?

[thefro526]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Unfortunately, this is likely the difference between Dawgma qualifying for the event and sitting at home.

I think it's safe to say that not all top 52-54 teams will attend either due to financial or logistical reasons - heck, I've heard of teams that had no plans on going because they were already going to the 'real' CMP - so all hope is not lost. In the event that a team in the top 52-54 declines it's spot, it'll go to the next highest ranked uninvited team.

[scottandme]

From a Don Bowers email after week 2 -

"To date the only three teams that have qualified for the Regional Championship are the three Chairman's Award winners - #11, #433, and #1218. For the Regional Championship we expect 52 teams from our field of 99 to qualify and compete."

It seems like an easy enough thing to crowdsource - I just put the week 2 results into a public Google Doc, feel free to edit/update. Might be nice for teams at Mount Olive to use as a resource if people are updating the results during the event/after day 1 there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1YVpMQURnY 0E

I'll probably update in a couple hours if someone doesn't beat me to it (jb/deetman?)

Update: The sheet should be up to date now.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by thefro526

I think it's safe to say that not all top 52-54 teams will attend either due to financial or logistical reasons - heck, I've heard of teams that had no plans on going because they were already going to the 'real' CMP - so all hope is not lost. In the event that a team in the top 52-54 declines it's spot, it'll go to the next highest ranked uninvited team.

Understood, but we currently sit at 49th, with one automatic qualifier (11) and more than 30 of the Mount Olive competitors behind us looking to leapfrog our standings. It would take a massive amount of declines for 1712 to be able to attend. Can't blame anyone but ourselves for this predicament, though.

[scottandme]

Updated the rankings on the doc linked above. 56 teams have completed their 2 qualifying events. It seems that 3553 and 896 haven't competed at any events, leaving us with 97 teams total. 41 teams (assuming no 896) finish the MAR qualifying season at Mount Olive this weekend.

Of the 56 teams that are finished, the average accrued point total is 50.55, with 341 and 1218 leading the pack with 144! points each (seems fitting that they're tied, no?). The midpoint of the list (#28 & #29 of 56) has team 2191 with 48 points and team 272 with 47.

So it seems likely at this point that 433 will be outside the cutoff (with 37 points after 2 events). Depending on how MORT and the future CA winner perform, that may mean that the cutoff could be as high as the 49th ranked team (with 1218 and 2590 already qualified via points).

With all that in mind, I would bet on the cutoff being somewhere in the high 40's. Should be an awesome weekend.

[kinganu123]

Originally Posted by thefro526

For what it's worth, there were no Week 3 MAR events, hence why the last update was 3/9.

I was not aware of this, thanks for the clear up!

[HannahF]

Originally Posted by scottandme

Updated the rankings on the doc linked above. 56 teams have completed their 2 qualifying events. It seems that 3553 and 896 haven't competed at any events, leaving us with 97 teams total. 41 teams (assuming no 896) finish the MAR qualifying season at Mount Olive this weekend..

3553 competed at CHA, but did not come to Lenape.

Originally Posted by scottandme

So it seems likely at this point that 433 will be outside the cutoff (with 37 points after 2 events). Depending on how MORT and the future CA winner perform, that may mean that the cutoff could be as high as the 49th ranked team (with 1218 and 2590 already qualified via points).

With all that in mind, I would bet on the cutoff being somewhere in the high 40's. Should be an awesome weekend.

I wasn't able to go to any of the scoring meetings so I maybe wrong but I thought winning chairman's at CHA automatically qaulified us for Temple? Would being outside the cutoff affect our eligiblity?

Thanks,
~Hannah

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by HannahF

I wasn't able to go to any of the scoring meetings so I maybe wrong but I thought winning chairman's at CHA automatically qaulified us for Temple? Would being outside the cutoff affect our eligiblity?

Thanks,
~Hannah

Yes, you automatically qualified by virtue of your District Chairman's Award. They were just noting how this affects the "cutoff" point in the sorted list of teams.

[HannahF]

Originally Posted by Jared341

Yes, you automatically qualified by virtue of your District Chairman's Award. They were just noting how this affects the "cutoff" point in the sorted list of teams.

Oh Ok, Thank You, I wanted to make sure that my understanding was correct. I see now how our ranking lower, pushes "the cutoff" higher up the list.

Good Luck to everyone who still has to compete this weekend.

~Hannah

[Steven Donow]

This thread's been driving me crazy, haha. I've been running numbers all evening to try and figure out how likely it is that my team will make it, it's actually kinda fun

[George A.]

Originally Posted by stevend1994

This thread's been driving me crazy, haha. I've been running numbers all evening to try and figure out how likely it is that my team will make it, it's actually kinda fun

Try being one of the teams one of the teams competing this weekend and have to figure out what you have to do to make the cut off...THAT'S maddening lol.

[The Lucas]

I pulled down a copy of the Gdoc and did some calculations to determine who has clinched qualification in the MAR championship. If these calculations (mine and the point totals from the Gdoc) are correct...
Congrats to 1168, 2607, 2729 and all other teams with 58 pts or more. You have mathematically clinched a berth in the MAR championship.

A little background on my method of calculation. First I calculated the points remaining in MAR: 42 (number of teams at Mt. Olive) * 2 (# of qual matches is twice # the teams) * 6 (possible pts per match) + 483 pts (e.g. awards, elim performance, alliance selection) = 987 possible pts left in MAR.

Next for each team high in the rankings, calculate the minimum number of pts needed for enough Mt. Olive teams to tie them in the rankings to possibly force that team out of MAR Championship on tie breakers. If this min pts is greater than 987, then that team has clinched a berth. For example, it would take 1047 pts for the next 29 active teams to tie the 3 teams tied at 58 pts (ranked 19-21). The 29 teams takes into account Chairman's winners current ranked below them (433 & 11) and assumes the Mt. Olive Chairman's winner is not one of those 29 teams or any teams currently ranked above them. I looks good for teams tied at 57 pts (especially active Team 222), since the min number is 971 which is just short of the 987 possible. All pts accumulated by already qualified teams reduces the cutoff point.

I attached my spreadsheet. The clinching teams are highlighted in green, and the one that are currently in (w/o Mt. Olive) are highlighted in orange. The array of numbers to the right of each team's total points are used for the pt calculations. Please tell me if I made any mistakes and feel free to extend the sheet however you want (live updates as Mt. Olive is happening, maybe ).

Originally Posted by scottandme

41 teams (assuming no 896) finish the MAR qualifying season at Mount Olive this weekend.

I believe 896 is currently going to Mt. Olive since it is much closer to their school and they will have 6 more hours to work on their bot.

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by The Lucas

...snip...

Good stuff! Now that we (almost) have an entire season under our belts, we should be able to look at the shape of the points distribution to help better predict the "cutoff" in future seasons. I would also be interested in figuring out whether the shape of our curve closely resembles that of FIRST in Michigan's (if only there was a mentor in Michigan who keeps statistics about these sorts of things... ).

[Siri]

Originally Posted by The Lucas

I pulled down a copy of the Gdoc and did some calculations to determine who has clinched qualification in the MAR championship. If these calculations (mine and the point totals from the Gdoc) are correct...[snip]

Shouldn't there be a further method of determining the cutoff? For instance, 1640 is currently sitting at 28 (assuming worst case that the MO Chairman's winner is ranked under us). This means, I think, that 25 teams (minimum) need to move above us, putting us at 53. The least number of points this requires is 827, under the overall point remainder of 987. Have I done this correctly?

However, this leapfrogging (at its minimum) requires 10 teams to earn 40 or more points at Mount Olive and another 8 to earn 30 or more (2 in the 20s, and 5 in the 10s). There should be some mathematical limit to the points one team can acquire, and another limit to the number of teams who can earn, say, 40 points.

I'm working on figuring this out. (Thought I had it there for a while...) Is this what you're doing in columns Q-AB?

[scottandme]

Originally Posted by Siri

Shouldn't there be a further method of determining the cutoff? For instance, 1640 is currently sitting at 25. This means, I think, that 28 teams (minimum) need to move above us, putting us at 53. The least number of points this requires is 962, under the overall point remainder of 987. Have I done this correctly?

However, this leapfrogging (at its minimum) requires 13 teams to earn 40 or more points at Mount Olive and another 8 to earn 30 or more (2 in the 20s, and 5 in the 10s). There should be some mathematical limit to the points one team can acquire, and another limit to the number of teams who can earn, say, 40 points.

I'm working on figuring this out. (Thought I had it there for a while...) Is this what you're doing in columns Q-AB?

I'm sure that it gets more complex as we look at things like the match schedule to find the max number of qual. points for the top teams to earn. Right now every team has the chance to earn 48 QP. With every match a team loses/ties/fails to coop, their ceiling decreases. Once alliances are selected it should be slightly more clear which teams are mathematically eliminated, but elims will probably still be able to alter the outcome significantly.

All of the bubble teams should be hoping for teams currently above them to earn as many points as possible, since that doesn't change their standing at all.

So the moral is: Win CA at Mount Olive, or earn somewhere in the range of 58+ points to lock in a spot. I'm guessing the cutoff will be somewhere around the high 40's, so anything in that range is dangerous.

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by scottandme

From a Don Bowers email after week 2 -

"To date the only three teams that have qualified for the Regional Championship are the three Chairman's Award winners - #11, #433, and #1218. For the Regional Championship we expect 52 teams from our field of 99 to qualify and compete."

It seems like an easy enough thing to crowdsource - I just put the week 2 results into a public Google Doc, feel free to edit/update. Might be nice for teams at Mount Olive to use as a resource if people are updating the results during the event/after day 1 there.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...1YVpMQURnY 0E

I'll probably update in a couple hours if someone doesn't beat me to it (jb/deetman?)

Update: The sheet should be up to date now.

Why did Team 103 only get 12 Qualifying Points at Lenape? They have 7 wins. Shouldn't the Qualifying Points be 14? Can somebody point me to the official document that MAR publish?

Also it does not look like the spreadsheet is applying the tiebreaks if teams get the same total ranking points.