2012 IRI Predictions

[Chris Fultz]

Originally Posted by Gary Dillard

Can you clarify Chris; I assume UOS all 2012 rules apply. 2.2.3 says the the drivers and human player must be pre-college student team members. You don't allow alumni to be members of the team, even as mentors? It seems that it would be still be legal for them to drive if they haven't started college, but it is the individual team's choice as to whether they drive or not, correct?

This is a Cyber Blue / school rule. Once students graduate, they are no longer students on the team. They cannot travel as students anymore and we start the transition to new students and new student leaders.

For IRI, they have to be no older than 2012 graduated seniors.

[Mr. Lim]

I predict that little-known 907 will put up one of the quietest 1.5 hybrid + 7 teleop baskets per match + consistent balancing performances at the event. Statistically, they will have a top 15 performance in terms of points scored, but still may not be picked for the elims...

If they are picked, they'll make an alliance awfully happy .

[Peyton Yeung]

Originally Posted by OZ_341

On 341 we treat this as our senior's "last chance to dance".

I'm sad that with no talent show we won't see "daisy style"

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by Jared341

I have "simulated" IRI using each team's best regional/divisional OPR (tiebreaker: average OPR from Ed Law's post-Championship spreadsheet). I assumed "optimal" play - the teams seed according to OPR, and pick the highest OPR team available in every situation (keeping in mind the 1-8, 1-8, 8-1 IRI selection order). Here are the alliances that I ended up with (also making the assumption that all invited teams do attend):

#1: 2056 - 469 - 25 - 340
#2: 341 - 118 - 1023 - 111
#3: 2826 - 67 - 330 - 3322
#4: 1114 - 33 - 3098 - 971
#5: 548 - 359 - 744 - 829
#6: 148 - 254 - 2054 - 1676
#7: 973 - 624 - 16 - 2168
#8: 2481 - 868 - 68 - 399

All predictions are guaranteed to be wrong, or your money back.

If you don't mind me saying, while they're very similar, I found Most Recent OPR was a better predictor than Best OPR at the 2012 CMP. Of course, there's no guarantee that will also be the case at IRI. Either way, I'm continuing to do research and plan to go into past years as well. This may turn into a white paper, eventually.

As for the issue of new drive teams, my predictions were based statistically on the regular season+CMP, so they assume the same drive teams will be used. Just another failing of statistics.

[AlexD744]

Originally Posted by Jared341

I have "simulated" IRI using each team's best regional/divisional OPR (tiebreaker: average OPR from Ed Law's post-Championship spreadsheet). I assumed "optimal" play - the teams seed according to OPR, and pick the highest OPR team available in every situation (keeping in mind the 1-8, 1-8, 8-1 IRI selection order). Here are the alliances that I ended up with (also making the assumption that all invited teams do attend):

#1: 2056 - 469 - 25 - 340
#2: 341 - 118 - 1023 - 111
#3: 2826 - 67 - 330 - 3322
#4: 1114 - 33 - 3098 - 971
#5: 548 - 359 - 744 - 829
#6: 148 - 254 - 2054 - 1676
#7: 973 - 624 - 16 - 2168
#8: 2481 - 868 - 68 - 399

All predictions are guaranteed to be wrong, or your money back.

Anybody else notice that there's no pink on this list... I checked OPRNet and it said their OPR was ~27 in Curie, you more think that would be more than enough, but 340 has 28 in newton. Only 1 Florida team on this list but that's ok predictions can never be right.

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by Basel A

If you don't mind me saying, while they're very similar, I found Most Recent OPR was a better predictor than Best OPR at the 2012 CMP. Of course, there's no guarantee that will also be the case at IRI. Either way, I'm continuing to do research and plan to go into past years as well. This may turn into a white paper, eventually.

Here is the same list using Most Recent OPR as the sorting mechanism (tiebreaker: Average OPR from the Ed Law spreadsheet):

#1: 2056 - 341 - 2054 - 192
#2: 118 - 2826 - 68 - 379
#3: 33 - 148 - 25 - 2590
#4: 254 - 548 - 469 - 233
#5: 973 - 2481 - 1676 - 3138
#6: 868 - 1023 - 829 - 781
#7: 67 - 744 - 340 - 3193
#8: 624 - 1114 - 111 - 1718

Same caveat as before: All predictions wrong, or your money back!

[Ekcrbe]

Originally Posted by Jared341

#1: 2056 - 469 - 25 - 340
#2: 341 - 118 - 1023 - 111
#3: 2826 - 67 - 330 - 3322
#4: 1114 - 33 - 3098 - 971
#5: 548 - 359 - 744 - 829
#6: 148 - 254 - 2054 - 1676
#7: 973 - 624 - 16 - 2168
#8: 2481 - 868 - 68 - 399

I think the real show could see 16 going a little earlier, as we've all seen that OPR can be overrated--especially for them.

I would also expect 548 to even be a little higher than they are on that list--they're just so strong across the board.

Originally Posted by Jared341

#1: 2056 - 341 - 2054 - 192
#2: 118 - 2826 - 68 - 379
#3: 33 - 148 - 25 - 2590
#4: 254 - 548 - 469 - 233
#5: 973 - 2481 - 1676 - 3138
#6: 868 - 1023 - 829 - 781
#7: 67 - 744 - 340 - 3193
#8: 624 - 1114 - 111 - 1718

This is interesting. I would actually expect a few teams going up from the previous list, not down. Up and down, however, depends on how you value higher 1st pick vs. lower alliance captain. How do you rank those? Is 1st pick overall the 2nd highest, or 9th? And is 2nd alliance captain 2nd ranked or 3rd?

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by Ekcrbe

This is interesting. I would actually expect a few teams going up from the previous list, not down. Up and down, however, depends on how you value higher 1st pick vs. lower alliance captain. How do you rank those? Is 1st pick overall the 2nd highest, or 9th? And is 2nd alliance captain 2nd ranked or 3rd?

I assumed all teams seed according to the OPR metrics listed in the respective posts. I assumed #1 seed always picks #2, #3 picks #4, etc. - at all times, the team "on the clock" picks the highest OPR team available in the pool. The selection order is 1-8, 1-8, 8-1, as previously noted.

[Bjenks548]

Originally Posted by Jared341

Here is the same list using Most Recent OPR as the sorting mechanism (tiebreaker: Average OPR from the Ed Law spreadsheet):

#4: 254 - 548 - 469 - 233


Same caveat as before: All predictions wrong, or your money back!

I'll take that alliance, but i can't imagine 469 falling to a second pick or 233 as a back up!

[Travis Hoffman]

Hey all - as long as we are all enjoying eating our pie in the sky (I hear pie goes well with ice cream...), here's a different flavor for you:

This pick list is generated by sorting the IRI invitees by Ed Law's post-championship Worldrank. 1 picks 2, 3 picks 4, yadda yadda yadda.

 
# A/C  Pick1 Pick2 Pick3
1 67   2056  1676  233
2 341  469   829   3322
3 2481 254   48    379
4 1114 118   2054  2614
5 1023 359   1718  744
6 624  548   16    3138
7 2826 973   148   111
8 25   330   340   33

[nuggetsyl]

Originally Posted by J_Miles

They seem to be VERY comparable. 2056-341 are two top-notch scorers, but 341 may have the edge. 469-118 goes to 469, 25-1023 could go either way, since both are stellar, and I think 340-111 actually goes to 340. Both are killer alliances, and any matches pitting one against the other would be sure to include some incredible fireworks. The disparity between #1 & #2 in my mind is the number of long bots. Where 25 and 1023 are fairly comparable, 25 is long with no stabilization device (at least at CMP) while 1023 is wide and possesses a "stinger" (with that said, their 4-wheel-drive makes it nearly impossible to hang very much of their robot off the end of the bridge. Watch any of quarterfinal 3 at the Michigan State Championship and you'll see the rather painful truth there) I think for pure shooting power, #1 is my favorite, while for balancing potential, I give #2 a slight edge

We have a stinger. We did not have the weight for it at champs. But the question really is, do we need a stinger?

[J_Miles]

Originally Posted by nuggetsyl

We have a stinger. We did not have the weight for it at champs. But the question really is, do we need a stinger?

That certainly depends. In the scenario outlined, it would certainly be beneficial, where another long 'bot is present. However, I concede that it is not always necessary, especially considering the amount of length your robot is capable of extending over the end of the bridge.

[nuggetsyl]

Originally Posted by J_Miles

That certainly depends. In the scenario outlined, it would certainly be beneficial, where another long 'bot is present. However, I concede that it is not always necessary, especially considering the amount of length your robot is capable of extending over the end of the bridge.

I will make sure the stinger comes along for the ride. I would hate to not be picked because we left it at home.

[Ekcrbe]

Originally Posted by Bjenks548

I'll take that alliance, but i can't imagine 469 falling to a second pick or 233 as a back up!

Wow. I just noticed that. I would definitely see 469 going in the 1st 4 picks or being a captain. 233 is definitely in the top 2 rounds, and both 1114 and 111 seem to have fallen a little far in Jared341's latest simulation.

[JosephC]

Originally Posted by Travis Hoffman

Hey all - as long as we are all enjoying eating our pie in the sky (I hear pie goes well with ice cream...), here's a different flavor for you:

This pick list is generated by sorting the IRI invitees by Ed Law's post-championship Worldrank. 1 picks 2, 3 picks 4, yadda yadda yadda.

 
# A/C  Pick1 Pick2 Pick3
1 67   2056  1676  233
2 341  469   829   3322
3 2481 254   48    379
4 1114 118   2054  2614
5 1023 359   1718  744
6 624  548   16    3138
7 2826 973   148   111
8 25   330   340   33

Ouch, apparently 68's World Rank sucks. I'm guessing it factors in data from before Worlds?