2012 IRI Predictions

[CalTran]

Originally Posted by akoscielski3

I doubt that getting the Co-op bridge in hybrid will be as big as in other competitons. Since only 2 balls will most likely be on the bridge at once (most robots will have their balls in the robot).

Either way Hybrid will be not as big of a part of the game as in other competitions.

Guess 5 ball autonomous modes are a thing of the past now. Darn. Oh well.

Anyways, I'd say that the 2 wide, 1 long sounds like a pretty good pairing, though with 1717 running swerve and 469 being a square, it's hard to classify them when they win...

As said before, with a 4 bot alliance, they'll be able to triple, but only if it is to their advantage to do so. As one of our mentors said, rather optimistically,

Balancing won't matter if we score 300 balls a match.

[LeelandS]

Originally Posted by akoscielski3

I doubt that getting the Co-op bridge in hybrid will be as big as in other competitons. Since only 2 balls will most likely be on the bridge at once (most robots will have their balls in the robot).

I do expect more feeding to happen and a few robots get the balls off the alliance bridge and score them. Either way Hybrid will be not as big of a part of the game as in other competitions. I actually think the only really different part will be Teleop. But we'll have to wait and see about that.

I find that an interesting hypothesis.

It seems to me Hybrid will be a huge part of the game, especially when it comes to acquiring and scoring balls from the alliance and coopertition bridge. If you have two alliances, both capable of hitting all 6 preloaded balls in Hybrid (like I'm sure will happen quite often), then acquiring an extra 24 points (12 from the coop, 12 from the alliance) seems like it would be huge. You start out teleoperated with your opponents in a 24 point hole that they have to climb out of. A very nice advantage to start with.

I'd like to hear your reasoning behind saying Hybrid will be less important. I definitely find it to be an interesting statement.

[akoscielski3]

Originally Posted by LeelandS

I find that an interesting hypothesis.

It seems to me Hybrid will be a huge part of the game, especially when it comes to acquiring and scoring balls from the alliance and coopertition bridge. If you have two alliances, both capable of hitting all 6 preloaded balls in Hybrid (like I'm sure will happen quite often), then acquiring an extra 24 points (12 from the coop, 12 from the alliance) seems like it would be huge. You start out teleoperated with your opponents in a 24 point hole that they have to climb out of. A very nice advantage to start with.

I'd like to hear your reasoning behind saying Hybrid will be less important. I definitely find it to be an interesting statement.

I can/will expand on this later but for now...

Alliance A: gets the Co-op bridge balls
Alliance B: doesnt get alliance bridge balls

1. You said that there would be a 24 point difference. But who said that alliance B doesnt get the 2 balls from their allaince bridge and scores those for 12 points. the the differnece is only a MAX of 12 points.

2. When Alliance A scores their 2 extra balls, then Allaince B (human players) has control of those balls and Hopefully delivers those balls to their side of the field. Helping them score more. Assuming the score is tied and they score those balls the score will be 6 point difference now for Alliance A.

At this point Aliance B only is losing by 6. Easy enough to come back from. Then it comes down to the remaining Teleop and the Bridge Points.

Notice that most of this was displayed at GTR west when 1114 and 2056 played against eachother. (meaning when delsivering balls and easily coming back from losing in hybrid) the alliance bridge was not yet perfected.

Remember this will most likely not happen but also realize that hybrid will not be everything.

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by LeelandS

Though, Einstein was one on double balances. So I wouldn't say it's impossible.

Yeah, you just have to make sure the field knocks out the third robot of all the alliances that needed to triple balance.

I wouldn't use Einstein as an indicator for the style of play you'd see at IRI for that reason. The Archimedes finals I think are a great example of how IRI may end up playing out.

[LeelandS]

Originally Posted by akoscielski3

I can/will expance on this later but for now...

Alliance A: gets the Co-op bridge balls
Alliance B: doesnt get alliance bridge balls

1. You said that there would be a 24 point difference. But who said that alliance B doesnt get the 2 balls from their allaince bridge and scores those for 12 points. the the differnece is only a MAX of 12 points.

2. When Alliance A scores their 2 extra balls, then Allaince B (human players) has control of those balls and Hopefully delivers those balls to their side of the field. Helping them score more. Assuming the score is tied and they score those balls the score will be 6 point difference now for Alliance A.

At this point Aliance B only is losing by 6. Easy enough to come back from. Then it comes down to the remaining Teleop and the Bridge Points.

Notice that most of this was displayed at GTR west when 1114 and 2056 played against eachother. (meaning when delsivering balls and easily coming back from losing in hybrid) the alliance bridge was not yet perfected.

Remember this will most likely not happen but also realize that hybrid will not be everything.

Of course Hybrid won't be everything. There is never a part of a game that is "everything".

So, using your terms, we'll say this:
Alliance A gets from the Coop Bridge and the Alliance Bridge
Alliance B gets from the Alliance Bridge

It's true, that if Alliance A gets Coop and Alliance bridge balls, and Alliance B gets their alliance balls, then there is only a 12 point spread. But still, I'd rather be up 12 points than tied.

And again, yes, then Human Players B will be in control of some extra balls. But if Alliance A puts in 10 balls in 15 seconds, that's a bit for those human players to sort through with their 6 ball maximum. So there's a chance that they'll have to just drop some, or even incur some penalties.

Even if that doesn't happen, if Alliance A puts in 10 balls, and Alliance B puts in 8, then the score is 60 to 48, in favor of Alliance A. Alliance A has 8 balls being sent to them by their human players, Alliance B has 10. If all those balls get put in, Alliance A will have 60 + 3(8) = 84. And Alliance B will have 48 + 3(10) = 78. Still in favor of Alliance A. Then, repeating the cycle after that, Alliance A will have 10 balls coming to them, and Alliance B will have 8. Alliance A can get a score of 84 + 3(10) = 114, while Alliance B gets 78 + 3(8) = 102. Again, favor to Alliance A.

At that point, Alliance B NEEDS a triple balance. With a double balance or less, Alliance A just needs to balance one robot to get the win. It still does come down to balancing, but Alliance B NEEDS to get that triple right, which causes more pressure, which, of course, causes mistakes. If it's a qualification round where triple balances are scored the same a double balances, hope for Alliance B looks very dim.

Normally, I wouldn't operate under the assumption that all Human Players get every ball across the field, and every balls gets put in each time, but at IRI, the caliber of many alliance will allow that.

I feel as though something in my logic is a bit off, but it seems to me that, any way you slice it, getting from the Coop and Alliance bridge is a huge advantage.

Originally Posted by Chris is me

Yeah, you just have to make sure the field knocks out the third robot of all the alliances that needed to triple balance.

I wouldn't use Einstein as an indicator for the style of play you'd see at IRI for that reason. The Archimedes finals I think are a great example of how IRI may end up playing out.

I'd definitely agree about using Einstein. I was just pointing out that you don't need to triple to win at a high level. But you're definitely right on that one.

As for Archimedes, I'd definitely agree on that one as well. The matches are going to be "shooting-and-scoring" extravaganzas, and it's going to come down to who can lock the right balance.

[akoscielski3]

Originally Posted by LeelandS

Of course Hybrid won't be everything. There is never a part of a game that is "everything".

So, using your terms, we'll say this:
Alliance A gets from the Coop Bridge and the Alliance Bridge
Alliance B gets from the Alliance Bridge

It's true, that if Alliance A gets Coop and Alliance bridge balls, and Alliance B gets their alliance balls, then there is only a 12 point spread. But still, I'd rather be up 12 points than tied.

And again, yes, then Human Players B will be in control of some extra balls. But if Alliance A puts in 10 balls in 15 seconds, that's a bit for those human players to sort through with their 6 ball maximum. So there's a chance that they'll have to just drop some, or even incur some penalties.

Even if that doesn't happen, if Alliance A puts in 10 balls, and Alliance B puts in 8, then the score is 60 to 48, in favor of Alliance A. Alliance A has 8 balls being sent to them by their human players, Alliance B has 10. If all those balls get put in, Alliance A will have 60 + 3(8) = 84. And Alliance B will have 48 + 3(10) = 78. Still in favor of Alliance A. Then, repeating the cycle after that, Alliance A will have 10 balls coming to them, and Alliance B will have 8. Alliance A can get a score of 84 + 3(10) = 114, while Alliance B gets 78 + 3(8) = 102. Again, favor to Alliance A.

At that point, Alliance B NEEDS a triple balance. With a double balance or less, Alliance A just needs to balance one robot to get the win. It still does come down to balancing, but Alliance B NEEDS to get that triple right, which causes more pressure, which, of course, causes mistakes. If it's a qualification round where triple balances are scored the same a double balances, hope for Alliance B looks very dim.

Normally, I wouldn't operate under the assumption that all Human Players get every ball across the field, and every balls gets put in each time, but at IRI, the caliber of many alliance will allow that.

I feel as though something in my logic is a bit off, but it seems to me that, any way you slice it, getting from the Coop and Alliance bridge is a huge advantage.

Yea I understand what you are saying. But that is in a perfect match, but again the hybrid i mentioned is a perfect hybrid.

I guess we can both agree that IRI will be crazy!

[Gregor]

Originally Posted by akoscielski3

I guess we can both agree that IRI will be crazy!

Is it ever not?

[akoscielski3]

Originally Posted by Gregor01

Is it ever not?

Well I only got to see a little bit of last years, and this is my first time getting to go, sooo i guess i Dont know But i hear is awesome

[LeelandS]

Originally Posted by akoscielski3

Yea I understand what you are saying. But that is in a perfect match, but again the hybrid i mentioned is a perfect hybrid.

I guess we can both agree that IRI will be crazy!

Absolutely! Competition at IRI is ALWAYS intense and insane! I can't wait to see how things play out.

[akoscielski3]

Originally Posted by LeelandS

Absolutely! Competition at IRI is ALWAYS intense and insane! I can't wait to see how things play out.

UNLESS, the FMS dies... :$

[LeelandS]

Originally Posted by akoscielski3

UNLESS, the FMS dies... :$

If the field gives out at IRI, I'm rage quitting FIRST. Okay, well... Maybe not. But I'll write a strongly worded letter to SOMEBODY!

[Ekcrbe]

Originally Posted by Bjenks548

This thread has been dead a little too long so...
...
Will all alliances be able to triple balance and if not, do they stand a chance?
What will the Coop bridge % be durring qualifications?
...
My guesses,
...
All will be able to, if not there is no chance
90%
...

These I could see being a little different.

Alliances that double and leave a fantastic (even by IRI standards) shooter to have free reign on the field could be able to score 7 balls (21 points) in 30 seconds, or 10 seconds a clip (likely more like 12-12-6 seconds if the last reload is less than 3 balls). That would make up for the triple balance. But everyone probably will be able to, yes.

Coop percentage might be lower than 90%--I would expect 83-85%--because, with the field being so strong, everybody will be trying to outscore each other in Teleop, they will start stretching the limits of how fast the Coop can happen, and they will start failing. The first third of Qualification Matches will probably have a Coop rate of 84-86%, the second third will see a 6-8 point increase in score per alliance, but a Coop rate of more like 77-79%. The final third will see match scores fall back to that of the early matches, and even 2-4 points lower, and the Coop rate rise to 88-90% as teams push to Coop more reliably, remembering its importance in the standings. The Coop Attempt rate will likely be around 99%, but some attempts will just not pan out for various reasons.

[EricH]

Originally Posted by LeelandS

If the field gives out at IRI, I'm rage quitting FIRST. Okay, well... Maybe not. But I'll write a strongly worded letter to SOMEBODY!

If the field gives out at IRI, I think FRC HQ will get word very quickly via more official channels. Along with the diagnosis of as many people who deal with that sort of thing for a living as happen to be there and looking over the field...

But I'm hopeful that the weekend testing went well enough for FIRST to at least replicate the error(s), and better than that, find out how to stop it for good.

[LeelandS]

Originally Posted by EricH

If the field gives out at IRI, I think FRC HQ will get word very quickly via more official channels. Along with the diagnosis of as many people who deal with that sort of thing for a living as happen to be there and looking over the field...

But I'm hopeful that the weekend testing went well enough for FIRST to at least replicate the error(s), and better than that, find out how to stop it for good.

My post was more of a joke. I'm hoping we'll find the case to be an isolated incident with the Einstein field, and that the field used at most off season events will be more than able to put on the matches we'd expect to see at IRI. If the weekend's diagnostics from FIRST goes well, I'm sure we won't see a problem going into IRI. If they don't provide any conclusive results... Well, that's a problem.

But I'm optimistic that field problems will be resolved going into IRI (even if I have no reason to be optimistic). And I wouldn't be surprised if some FIRST personnel are on-hand at IRI, just in case. I'm sure FIRST is at least a little embarrassed about what happened on Einstein, and, even if IRI isn't an official FIRST sanctioned event, will want everything to be perfect at the biggest off-season event of the year as sort of a redemption.

[mikemat]

Originally Posted by Ekcrbe

These I could see being a little different.

Alliances that double and leave a fantastic (even by IRI standards) shooter to have free reign on the field could be able to score 7 balls (21 points) in 30 seconds, or 10 seconds a clip (likely more like 12-12-6 seconds if the last reload is less than 3 balls).

I definitely agree 21 pts is possible in 30 seconds (1717 proved it). However, I see triples at IRI, where most teams will probably have some form of balance assist, taking closer to the 15-20 sec. range. And I can't see anyone scoring 20 pts in 15 seconds.
I think at least 2 alliances won't triple, but i believe the winner will. All alliances will have one long, and half will have 2 longs somewhere on the alliance.
Fourth picks will be interesting. I think some alliances will need a wide here to make a triple posible, while others will pick up great robots neglected due to a need for wide bots. That brings up another question. Is the field too deep to pick up a great long bot second and third round, sacrifice the triple, and hope its enough? Or are you not gaining enough over choosing from the crop of already picked-over wide bots?