Registration 2013

[Clinton Bolinger]

2012 MAR Teams = 99 or 4% (99/2339)
2012 MAR Teams sent form their Regional CMP = 12 or 3% (12/400)

2012 MI Team = 190 or 8% (190/2339)
2012 MAR Teams sent form MSC = 18 or 4.5% (18/400)

Like Scottandme said most of the additional MI teams either paid their way and didn't make it via the District model. Michigan should be sending 36 teams to the Championship via MSC. Also remember that Michigan is going on its 5th year of the district model and we still send the same number of teams (18) in 2012 that we did back in 2009.

That's why we do the math!?

-Clinton-

[dodar]

Originally Posted by scottandme

But how many of those were from open registration at the start of the season? They only award 18 slots at Michigan CMP. With no open registration to speak of this year, that number is likely to decrease, perhaps significantly. They only other way for Michigan teams to qualify is via winning an outside regional (along with CCA and Einstein, etc).

For comparison, MAR had 26 out of 99 teams at CMP last year, 12 qualified at MAR CMP, 9 teams registered in the fall, 4 spots were opened up by teams double qualifying at MAR CMP (outside regional winner/preregistration/CCA), and 1 CCA winner.

This year we will have our 12 slots at MAR CMP, 4 teams registered from last year (3 CCA and 1 Einstein 12), and then possibly a few more if any MAR teams qualify via outside regionals (looks like 10 out of 109 teams plan to attend another regional this year). A few of those 12 slots could be lost if 25,103,341, or 365 attend and win MAR CMP or MAR EI/CA.

Regardless, I don't think there's any denying that Michigan produces some of the strongest teams in FIRST, and they'll likely be under-represented this year.

Then Michigan teams should go to OOS regionals and win those to get in.

[scottandme]

Also looking at robot performance, MI and MAR were well represented in the elimination rounds in 2012. 96 teams were chosen for eliminations, or 24% of teams at CMP. A quick check indicates that 23 of those teams were from Michigan and 8 were from MAR.

The math shakes out to show that 63.8% of Michigan teams at CMP were selected for eliminations, and 30.7% of teams from MAR at CMP were selected for eliminations, ahead of the expected value of 24%.

As a part of the entire CMP event: Michigan made up 9.0% of the teams attending, but 24.0% of elimination teams were from Michigan. MAR represented 6.5% of the total teams at CMP, and represented 8.3% of the elimination teams.

As a share of the entire region: 12.1% of all Michigan teams (190) made it the CMP eliminations, and 8.1% of all MAR teams (99) made it to the CMP eliminations. The average for every FIRST team is 4.1% (96 of 2339 teams).

[scottandme]

Originally Posted by dodar

Then Michigan teams should go to OOS regionals and win those to get in.

That's not really a logical answer. Michigan and MAR already have a very good to excellent method for ranking teams. Two qualifying events (24 qualification matches and eliminations) that feed into a region championship. Telling teams to spend the time and money to go to another event isn't the easy answer.

We were one of the (18?) teams that attended 5 events last year, and it was draining. Two MAR districts, Montreal, MAR CMP, and World CMP. That was $18,000 in registration alone. Thanks to our hard work, excellent sponsors, and school district we were able to manage that, but we're not the norm in that regard. We could have skipped MAR CMP since we won at Montreal, but had we not been lucky in that regard it's a mandatory 4 events before you can qualify for CMP.

You can also be an excellent team and not manage to get lucky enough to win a regional. Look at 118 this year, they had to win their 3rd and final regional to get a bid for CMP, and they were easily one of the top 10 robots in FIRST.

The easy solution is to adjust the number of bids to be proportional to the number to teams as a region grows. Michigan and MAR are the guinea pigs here, and it's tricky since everyone else is still in the regional system. I think the intent was to keep the same number of slots as there were in the regional system, so MAR got 12 as Philadelphia and NJ were dropped in the transition to MAR. MAR grew by 10 teams this year (99 to 109), so we now have 1 CMP slot for every ~9.1 teams. Michigan has 1 CMP slot for every ~11.4 teams (18 for 206 teams).

It's not a direct comparison, but California is close to Michigan in size (216 teams), and has 6 Regional events. No idea about waitlists, but right now those 6 events have 320 teams registered, or 1 slot for every 8.9 teams competing (53 team/event average). Competing in Michigan is roughly equivalent to attending a 68 team regional, with teams that are significantly better than average.

[Jimmy Nichols]

Originally Posted by Taylor

I asked the same question; the RD handles the waitlist, so whenever he/she is able to clear it is when it is done.

I found out that Susan, RD for Ohio, has authorized the clearing of QCR's waitlist but it isn't expected to happen until the end of the week. Not sure why it takes so long. I suppose they are contacting each team and asking them if they want in, and then waiting for a reply.

[dodar]

Originally Posted by scottandme

That's not really a logical answer. Michigan and MAR already have a very good to excellent method for ranking teams. Two qualifying events (24 qualification matches and eliminations) that feed into a region championship. Telling teams to spend the time and money to go to another event isn't the easy answer.

We were one of the (18?) teams that attended 5 events last year, and it was draining. Two MAR districts, Montreal, MAR CMP, and World CMP. That was $18,000 in registration alone. Thanks to our hard work, excellent sponsors, and school district we were able to manage that, but we're not the norm in that regard. We could have skipped MAR CMP since we won at Montreal, but had we not been lucky in that regard it's a mandatory 4 events before you can qualify for CMP.

You can also be an excellent team and not manage to get lucky enough to win a regional. Look at 118 this year, they had to win their 3rd and final regional to get a bid for CMP, and they were easily one of the top 10 robots in FIRST.

The easy solution is to adjust the number of bids to be proportional to the number to teams as a region grows. Michigan and MAR are the guinea pigs here, and it's tricky since everyone else is still in the regional system. I think the intent was to keep the same number of slots as there were in the regional system, so MAR got 12 as Philadelphia and NJ were dropped in the transition to MAR. MAR grew by 10 teams this year (99 to 109), so we now have 1 CMP slot for every ~9.1 teams. Michigan has 1 CMP slot for every ~11.4 teams (18 for 206 teams).

It's not a direct comparison, but California is close to Michigan in size (216 teams), and has 6 Regional events. No idea about waitlists, but right now those 6 events have 320 teams registered, or 1 slot for every 8.9 teams competing (53 team/event average). Competing in Michigan is roughly equivalent to attending a 68 team regional, with teams that are significantly better than average.

Yes it is. Every other team that competes in FIRST has to either win their regional or win an award that merits a CMP slot. FiM and MAR teams get 2x the chances to get to CMP than everyone else. You guys dont have to win your competitions to go to the region championships where you can still win slots or you can go OOR to play somewhere else and still win and get in.

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Jimmy Nichols

I found out that Susan, RD for Ohio, has authorized the clearing of QCR's waitlist but it isn't expected to happen until the end of the week. Not sure why it takes so long. I suppose they are contacting each team and asking them if they want in, and then waiting for a reply.

I was given a similar answer for New York City's waitlist.

I expect this answer might be similar for most events.

[Nemo]

Originally Posted by dodar

Yes it is. Every other team that competes in FIRST has to either win their regional or win an award that merits a CMP slot. FiM and MAR teams get 2x the chances to get to CMP than everyone else. You guys dont have to win your competitions to go to the region championships where you can still win slots or you can go OOR to play somewhere else and still win and get in.

Similarly, your team can go to (and pay for) a 2nd or 3rd or 4th regional if you want another chance to qualify.

In my opinion, Michigan has a pretty good point. It would be fair to increase the number of qualifying teams from that region.

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by dodar

FiM and MAR teams get 2x the chances to get to CMP than everyone else.

I am trying to figure this out, but not succeeding. How do you figure? Much was just posted about the number of qualification spots in FIM/MAR compared to an equivalent regional. Most regions of the country feature more qualification spots per team than in the district areas.

Furthermore, it takes FIM/MAR teams a minimum of 3 events (2 districts + Region CMP, though one could technically opt to skip one district) to qualify for the World Championship. That's 3 weeks out of 7 that are not available to attend an outside competition, and if you want to minimize the number of back to back competitions, it REALLY limits your options. Add to that the fact that because of the district system, you need to travel a potentially long ways to find another Regional.

[PVCpirate]

Michigan should get more CMP slots, but it shouldn't be done strictly by percentage of Michigan teams in FRC = percentage of Michigan teams at CMP, simply because that's not how it's done anywhere else. 6 teams qualify at a regional regardless of the size of the regional. I would think a fair way to do it(for Michigan and MAR) would be to come up with a number of teams for an "average regional", and base the numbers on that. For example, if we say the average regional has 50 teams and Michigan has 216 teams, 216/50 = about 4 average regionals, 6x4=24 slots.

[Clinton Bolinger]

FiM and MAR only get 2x the chances IF they go out of state.

Last year only 4.7% (Total of 9) of Michigan teams went out of state. Only one of those teams (27) won an award (they won EI) that got them to the Championship without the need to go to MSC. However, RUSH also won the MSC Chairman's award that also guaranteed them a spot for Champs.

If non-FiM teams go to the same number of events as a FiM team that goes to 2 districts and MSC. Those teams technically get 3x the chances to make it to the Champs. Not to mention the level of competition at a regional vs MSC.

-Clinton-

[Nuttyman54]

Originally Posted by PVCpirate

Michigan should get more CMP slots, but it shouldn't be done strictly by percentage of Michigan teams in FRC = percentage of Michigan teams at CMP, simply because that's not how it's done anywhere else. 6 teams qualify at a regional regardless of the size of the regional. I would think a fair way to do it(for Michigan and MAR) would be to come up with a number of teams for an "average regional", and base the numbers on that. For example, if we say the average regional has 50 teams and Michigan has 216 teams, 216/50 = about 4 average regionals, 6x4=24 slots.

This is exactly it. When Michigan went to districts in 2009, they were given the equivalent number of slots as they had previously with regionals. 3 regionals x 6 slots = 18 slots. I believe MAR did the same thing when they started.

What hasn't been addressed with the district system yet is how that increases with team growth. Michigan has many more teams now than when they started, and had they still been in a regional setup, they probably would have added at least one, maybe two more regionals by now, because the team base has grown and can support it. Right now they're still stuck with the same 3-regional equivalent. Fast growing regions like Texas, California and Washington have all expanded their events:

Texas: 2009 - 2 events, 2013 - 3 events
California: 2009 - 4 events, 2013 - 6 events
Washington: 2009 - 1 event, 2013 - 3 events

This means that those states/regions are qualifying more teams through regionals than they were several years ago, proportional to the team growth in the state. Michigan is not, because they have been fixed at 18 slots since 2009, regardless of the team growth and increase in the number of districts in the state.

[Hallry]

Originally Posted by Clinton Bolinger

FiM and MAR only get 2x the chances IF they go out of state.

Last year only 4.7% (Total of 9) of Michigan teams went out of state. Only one of those teams (27) won an award (they won EI) that got them to the Championship without the need to go to MSC. However, RUSH also won the MSC Chairman's award that also guaranteed them a spot for Champs.

If non-FiM teams go to the same number of events as a FiM team that goes to 2 districts and MSC. Those teams technically get 3x the chances to make it to the Champs. Not to mention the level of competition at a regional vs MSC.

-Clinton-

FiM and MAR teams would have two chances to get to Champs, only if they go out of their region. But teams that go to two regionals (which is most) have two chances as well. Only 10 teams are signed up for out-of-region competitions for 2013 out of the 109 MAR teams. That's just 11%.


Some might argue that MAR teams get an additional (third) chance since the MAR Regional took 12 spots from the combined NJ and Philly Regionals, but one must remember that they are competing there against TWICE the usual amount of teams, and also that the qualifying spots are distributed differently. Three winners, two Chairmans, but only 1 EI, 1 R.A.S., and then the 5 next highest ranked teams.

[Mark McLeod]

Originally Posted by Hallry

But teams that go to two regionals (which is most) ...

Um, no. This is a false statement.
What did you use as the basis for this?


I imagine as District systems become more prevalent, the system must eventually be based on percentage of overall FRC team population.
To give one area more slots, means that some other area must lose slots.
Regionals as an entity unto themselves would need adjustment to qualify fewer teams.
You can't just think to add slots-poor economics.

[Hallry]

Originally Posted by Mark McLeod

Um, no this is a false statement.
What did you use as the basis for this?

Whoops, my apologies. I misread the data that was posted earlier. I retract that statement.

Speaking of that, Mark, do you have any updated info of what percentage of teams are going to each number of competitions (1 event, 2 events, etc.)? Specifically, teams not in district models? I know the percentage of MAR teams attending outside regionals is 10.9%, and I don't believe any are signed up for more than 2 districts.

But just me thinking (specifically about MAR):

*MAR teams have two sets of regional spots to qualify for Champs, but they are distributed differently. Also, there is about twice the teams competing for them. And, as has happened in FiM, as time goes on, there will be more teams competing for the same limited number of spots.
*Yes, MAR teams have the chance to go out of chance to an outside regional to increase their chances. But, don't all teams have the ability to attend more competitions (of course budget ranges in all teams)?