Game hint....when?

[Hallry]

Originally Posted by Hallry

2012 (Kickoff Date: 1/7/12) = 1st Game Hint (12/02/11)
2011 (Kickoff Date: 1/8/11) = 1st Game Hint (12/21/10), 2nd Game Hint (1/4/11)
2010 (Kickoff Date: 1/9/10) = 1st Game Hint (12/24/09), 2nd Game Hint (1/6/10)
2009 (Kickoff Date: 1/10/09 ) = 1st Game Hint (12/4/08.), 2nd Game Hint (12/11/08),
2008 (Kickoff Date: 1/12/08) = 1st Game Hint (12/15/07), 2nd Game Hint (12/21/07), 3rd Game Hint (1/02/08)
2007 (Kickoff Date: 1/13/07) = 1st Game Hint (12/21/06)
2006 (Kickoff Date: 1/7/06) = 1st Game Hint (12/23/05)
2005 (Kickoff Date: 1/8/05) = 1st Game Hint (12/30/04)
2004 (Kickoff Date: 1/10/04) = 1st Game Hint (1/6/04)

Based on this data:
1. On average, a 1st game hint would be released 22 days before Kickoff, which would be December 14th, 2012 (Today).
2. On average, a 2nd game hint would be released 15 days before Kickoff, which would be December 21st, 2012.
3. On average, a 3rd game hint would be released 10 days before Kickoff, which would be December 26th, 2012.
4. The most common day for the first hint to be released is also December 21st.
5. The most common day for any hint to be released is also December 21st.
6. The second most common day for any hint to be released is January 6th.
7. 2012 was the first time after 4 years of more than one hint being released.

[Jon Stratis]

Originally Posted by Hallry

Based on this data:
1. On average, a 1st game hint would be released 22 days before Kickoff, which would be December 14th, 2012 (Today).
2. On average, a 2nd game hint would be released 15 days before Kickoff, which would be December 21st, 2012.
3. On average, a 3rd game hint would be released 10 days before Kickoff, which would be December 26th, 2012.
4. The most common day for the first hint to be released is also December 21st.
5. The most common day for any hint to be released is also December 21st.
6. The second most common day for any hint to be released is January 6th.
7. 2012 was the first time after 4 years of more than one hint being released.

You'd probably be better off looking at it from a perspective of "the last game hint X days, the second to last XX days, and the third to last XXX days before kickoff". The question is, how many game hints can we expect? It probably depends on how "easy" the GDC thinks the hint is... if people start narrowing in on what the hint is telling us, like the ball counters from last year, they'll probably limit the number of hints. After all, they don't want us to be guessing all of the game features, and they don't want to guarantee any specific feature!

[Hallry]

Originally Posted by Jon Stratis

You'd probably be better off looking at it from a perspective of "the last game hint X days, the second to last XX days, and the third to last XXX days before kickoff".

Well, then the last game hint would come out 10 days before Kickoff (December 21st, 2012), the second to last would come out 15 days before Kickoff (December 26th, 2012), and the third to last would come out 22 days before kickoff (Today, December 14th, 2012).

Is that what you mean?

[Jon Stratis]

Nope. When you reverse it like this, you don't average all of the first game hints - you average the last ones. So last year it was the first, the three years prior the third, prior to that the third, etc - whichever ones were closest to kickoff.

That results in averages of 14.8 (12/21) days before kickoff for the last game hint, 23.25 (12/12) days before for the second to last game hint, and 28 (12/8) days for the third to last game hint.

That would seem to indicate that, on average, we're past the point of having 3 game hints this year, and quickly approaching the point of only getting 1 game hint this year!

[Camren]

Originally Posted by FrankJ

It is going to be a water game. Sorry, I thought everybody knew that.

This would be the year for one in lieu of Dean Kamen's most recent modern marvel "The Slingshot"

[dellagd]

Originally Posted by Jon Stratis

That would seem to indicate that, on average, we're past the point of having 3 game hints this year, and quickly approaching the point of only getting 1 game hint this year!

Say it ain't so!

[Hallry]

Originally Posted by Jon Stratis

Nope. When you reverse it like this, you don't average all of the first game hints - you average the last ones. So last year it was the first, the three years prior the third, prior to that the third, etc - whichever ones were closest to kickoff.

That results in averages of 14.8 (12/21) days before kickoff for the last game hint, 23.25 (12/12) days before for the second to last game hint, and 28 (12/8) days for the third to last game hint.

That would seem to indicate that, on average, we're past the point of having 3 game hints this year, and quickly approaching the point of only getting 1 game hint this year!

Ah, okay. Thanks for explaining it and doing that math, I wasn't getting what you were saying at first =). I can live without a three hints, but the first better come soon!

[CalTran]

Perhaps the Rick Roll goes deeper than we thought and it is the ONLY hint we'll be getting...

I'm thinking that this year, as stated, we're only going to get one hint. Given what Hallry stated, once it's released than it will probably be identified within the first few pages. My bet is on page 1, possibly even first post, citing the data in which the rate a "game" was determined and the level of mystery hints carry based off of the amounts of hints. (1 hint = easy hint)

[Brandon Zalinsky]

Originally Posted by Hallry

4. The most common day for the first hint to be released is also December 21st.

I think they haven't made a game and are just hoping the world will end before they have to release a game hint

[dellagd]

Gah. Saw a new blog post and got excited for a second...

[dellagd]

So a hint being released on the 21st means they'll do it right a 12 AM, right????

[coalhot]

I'd like to think so, but I'm pretty sure the correct response is "you wish"

[ehfeinberg]

Ok, I stayed up till the end of the world...
Where's my game hint?

[coalhot]

Just go to bed, it'll be there when you wake up. Or it should be...

[nathannfm]

Originally Posted by ehfeinberg

Ok, I stayed up till the end of the world...
Where's my game hint?

You think they are gonna let the teams in Hawaii find out a day early?
I give it at least another 5 hours.