[EWCP] Presents TwentyFour -- An FRC Statistics Blog

[Wayne TenBrink]

Thanks for sharing your good work and astute observations. I agree that most teams overestimate the level of play and scoring, and that a team will do very well by setting a modest goal and actually achieving it.

If you were to break the scoring statistics down by week (or even by first half and second half of the competition season), I think you would find a significant increase in the scores. This is particularly true in Michigan and MAR where teams play in at least two events and have a real chance to improve.

I disagree slightly with one of your conclusions, however. Although many teams over-reach technically and would do better with less, it is still good to reach a bit beyond your comfort zone. A functioning, "simple" machine is best at early events where it is playing against non-functioning "complex" machines that haven't reached their full potential. They will eventually reach a plateau and struggle to remain competitive. I think a team should understand their technical limitation and design within them, but you should always strive to be competitive against the "great" teams, not the pack. Some of us are fortunate enough to have an MSC to aspire to.

As you imply, overestimating scores is a result of not predicting how the game will actually be played out. If your early brainstorming/strategy sessions don't result in a reasonably accurate version of reality, then it is hard to decide what functions you need to design into your robot. Week 1 of build season is the most important one by far.