Predicted Match Scores at Championships

[Justin Shelley]

What do you guys think will be the most points we will see from an alliance and from an individual team at championships?

[cadandcookies]

Color me an optimist, but I'm betting we'll see at least a few matches with >120 points. The breakdown on that would be either all three are 3-level climbers (for 90 points) plus scoring everything in the pyramid and some during autonomous, or an alliance that scores 6-8 discs in the high goal for 36-48 points, plus a killer teleop and at least one 30-point climber.

I'm betting that there will be some truly amazing teams on the field this year (beyond just the usual excellence). The combination of some pretty severe size constraints will lead to some very innovative mechanisms.

That being said, I'm betting that the highest scores at CMP won't happen on Einstein. Probably in a division eliminations match or by random chance in qualifications (I suppose this is probably just a general thing though).

I'm really excited to watch the Elim matches this year. I have a feeling they'll be very, very exciting.

[mikemat]

As a rough guess, I think most matches will have 70-90 pts. I imagine Einstein alliances chasing 180, with good qualification matches touching 150.

[dellagd]

A bit off topic, but I foresee match scores higher than last year, like an average of 20 points higher

On topic, Im going with 130 points

From an individual team? max max max 80 points

[MrTechCenter]

Do you think that FIRST will enforce their ability to change the value of climbing points at Championship? And how big of an impact will it have on the game?

Personally, I think that if points were REDUCED, it would take away the good climbing teams' strength and advantage in the game. But if the values were INCREASED, we'd see a lot of "tight" matches that come down to the climb.

[Dr Theta]

Originally Posted by MrTechCenter

Do you think that FIRST will enforce their ability to change the value of climbing points at Championship? And how big of an impact will it have on the game?

Personally, I think that if points were REDUCED, it would take away the good climbing teams' strength and advantage in the game. But if the values were INCREASED, we'd see a lot of "tight" matches that come down to the climb.

It is hard to say for certain without having seen the game play out, but I feel that the balance in the point distribution is right around where it should be, which is why I feel there is such a split in teams approaches to the game.

Personally I would prefer that they remove this option from the manual entirely, the game balance is what it is at the start of the season, and teams make decisions based off of that scoring balance. I don't think that designs should become artificially better or worse after the fact through no direct action of the teams.

[dcarr]

Out of curiosity, can someone name any past games in which scoring was adjusted at CMP and how this impacted gameplay?

[Ian Curtis]

Here are some pretty graphs from qualifying rounds at the CMP last year to add some fuel to this fire.

Total Alliance Match Scores


Hybrid Alliance Scores (bar contains 6 points (ie 1 top score), zero is its own bar)


Teleop Alliance Scores (bar contains 3 points (ie 1 score), zero is its own bar)


Food for thought: the 50th percentile score for an alliance in hybrid was only 3 balls, the 50th percentile score for an alliance in teleop was only 5. These are of course still significantly above what you would have seen at the regional level.

[TheMadCADer]

I'm predicting (assuming no climbing points changes) 100 points for a winning alliance in qualifications, and 180 for winners in eliminations. Math and assumptions below. It feels like I'm a bit high with these estimates, since I don't think I allocated enough time to driving to get discs and to line up for shooting.

First, qualifications. Historically, teams tend to be paired such that each alliance has an average of about one quality scorer. This team has a reliable scoring device, simple preloaded autonomous, and at least a 10 point hanging device (some will have better, some nothing, but it'll likely average out to about 10). Judging by prototype videos I've been seeing, this shooter can launch a disc every second, and the robot will hold 4 discs at a time. Judging by the size of the field, accuracy and range of shooters so far, and feeding station limits, I think that these robots will have to drive an average of about 25 feet each way to collect discs after shooting, from either the feeding station or off the floor (as you will see later, this should increase during eliminations, just like it did in 2011, another year with limited game pieces). Let's say that this driving will take a total of 10 seconds round-trip, estimating based on Logomotion (similar field setup). Let's also say that all 4 discs will be added to the robot's inventory in a total of 5 seconds (not continuous for floor pickup, but about 5 still). Stringing this all together, the robot drives 5 seconds, picks up discs for 5 seconds, drives for 5 seconds, shoots for 4 seconds, and then does it again. One cycle is 19 seconds, rounded up to 20 for simplicity that allows for exactly 6 cycles in 120 seconds. Chances are, things don't go perfectly, and they only get 5, allowing a bit of climbing time at the end of the match. In total you have your 3*6=18 auto points, 5*4*3=60 tele-op points, and 1*10 climbing points, earning this robot alone 88 points per match. Alliance partners can't be relied on for much more than 10-15 points in qualifications (a couple discs and 10 point hangers), so an average score ends up around 100.

However, I don't see anything limiting 3 good robots all scoring discs in this game (3 feeder stations, open field, lots of discs, wide goals), plus some teams will have autonomous sequences that will score the discs that start on the floor. In the most unlikely of pairings, I could see 3 shooters getting together, with 2 of them combining to score the 6 extra discs in auto (in addition to all 9 pre-loaded discs), and all three having 30 point climbing devices that somehow combine to score all 6 coloured discs. This would give a maximum of 15*6=90 auto points, 5*4*3*3=180 tele-op points, 6*5=30 pyramid goal points, and 3*30=90 climbing points, for a theoretical maximum score of 390 points. Disclaimer: this scenario will never happen, no team with that lead after just autonomous will risk their robot falling from the top of the pyramid. I could see somewhere in the 200 range as a possibility, although it would be highly improbable.

Eliminations will be quite similar, though teams will have to drive longer to get discs as people use starvation strategies and defense becomes a factor. Also, each alliance will probably have two shooters each, and some will have a dedicated climber as well. Auto points per match increase to around 40 as two robots score their pre-loaded discs and some score floor discs as well. Teams only complete 4 scoring cycles each, but 2 robots on each alliance can do this now, so tele-op points go up to around 4*4*3*2=96 points. Climbing points get tricky here, since it all depends on which teams get picked and how dedicated climbers seed. I can see 100 point endgames happening (two 30 point climbs, one 10 point climb, plus all 6 coloured discs in the pyramid goal), but I can also see an elimination alliance having 3 level one climbers, or 1 level three climber, or various combinations of those different options. The minimum here is definitely 30 points for the alliance, with a ceiling around 100. I'll take a wild guess with 50 and call it a day. Add it all up and my typical elimination alliance (this really applies more to the top 4 seeds than the bottom 4) scores around 180 points per match.

These both seem quite high to me, but I guess we just have to wait to find out how far off I was. However I've got a pretty good record going this year, I predicted that this year's game would be "Like Aim High, but with frisbees" during December...

[dodar]

Originally Posted by dellagd

A bit off topic, but I foresee match scores higher than last year, like an average of 20 points higher

On topic, Im going with 130 points

From an individual team? max max max 80 points

Say a team scores 4 into the high goal in auto, 6 full trips into the high goal and then a 30pt climb = 126 points. So I say that the single robot high score will be between 120-130. I say the average score at champs will be in the 90-110 range. With Einstein averaging at least 115+. I also see the high score for an alliance being around 200.

[Ty Tremblay]

I predict there will be MANY teams at Championships that are capable of at least 3 discs in the top goal in auto.

A few teams will also be capable of a climb and dump that takes, at maximum, 30 seconds.

This leaves at least 90 seconds to score frisbees in teleop. If they have to get their own frisbees, we're looking at 4 trips of four. However, if they're fed frisbees in some fashion, we could see 6 trips easily.

That makes a grand total of 116-140 points for one team.

Add on another good auto, another shooter, and we're eclipsing 200.

[Ty Tremblay]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

Here are some pretty graphs from qualifying rounds at the CMP last year to add some fuel to this fire.

.......

Food for thought: the 50th percentile score for an alliance in hybrid was only 3 balls, the 50th percentile score for an alliance in teleop was only 5. These are of course still significantly above what you would have seen at the regional level.

I really don't think we can compare last year to this year. Yes, the point values are comparable, but there's a fundamental difference between shooting a ball into a hoop and blasting it through the back of a hole in a wall. If we want to use previous years to predict this year's scores, we should be using 2006.

[coldfusion1279]

Originally Posted by dodar

Say a team scores 4 into the high goal in auto, 6 full trips into the high goal and then a 30pt climb = 126 points. So I say that the single robot high score will be between 120-130. I say the average score at champs will be in the 90-110 range. With Einstein averaging at least 115+. I also see the high score for an alliance being around 200.

6 trips!?!?!

You are a great optimist! In 120 seconds, 6 trips would be 20 seconds per trip, including loading, lining up, and shooting. Floor loading will be scarce early in matches, so at least a couple of those trips will be to the human loader. That also discounts ~10 second minimum for getting to the tower and climbing.

Anyway, my guess isn't too far from you, but a different way. The best teams will have 5 high goals in auto = 30. 8 frisbees in high goal in tele-op = 24. 30 point climb, and 20 point colored disc dump at the top in the last few seconds. The maximum I am willing to predict is 104 points for a single robot, and that assumes that the bot excels at EVERYTHING!

[Ian Curtis]

Originally Posted by Ty Tremblay

I really don't think we can compare last year to this year. Yes, the point values are comparable, but there's a fundamental difference between shooting a ball into a hoop and blasting it through the back of a hole in a wall. If we want to use previous years to predict this year's scores, we should be using 2006.

Probably the biggest difference IMO is the availability of game pieces. 2006 had a ton of them like we will this year, you really had to work for them in 2012. But there isn't FMS data broken down by period from 06. You're right though, I would expect to see higher scores this year.

[Ryan Caldwell]

The right alliance should be able to put up close to 225 points. With the accuracy of the first 2 weeks prototypes its easy to see 36-60 points in autonomous, another 90-100 in teleop and ~60 end game.