NEW: OPR Android App

[stingray27]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

Have you done any work to show that OPR on a partial event is useful? I looked at a regional in 2010 and found that that OPR really just wasn't worth looking at until Friday night, but would love to know if someone has done some more in depth work to show when it becomes useful, as the 1 regional I did is not exactly a big dataset.

Yes I have. That was a very interesting route I went when I looked at that information, because like you, I was curious to see what it would do. First, the reason I put a limit on when you can calculate OPR is because I cannot invert the matrix sooner than that match. Second, the data isn't quite representative until around 50% to 75% of the regional is complete. I have noticed that most of the OPRs are to the extremes when calculated early. As the regional progresses, the OPRs tend to settle into more valid ranges. By Friday night however, I am confident it will be fairly accurate and should do a good job in predicting the rankings.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by stingray27

Yes I have. That was a very interesting route I went when I looked at that information, because like you, I was curious to see what it would do. First, the reason I put a limit on when you can calculate OPR is because I cannot invert the matrix sooner than that match. Second, the data isn't quite representative until around 50% to 75% of the regional is complete. I have noticed that most of the OPRs are to the extremes when calculated early. As the regional progresses, the OPRs tend to settle into more valid ranges. By Friday night however, I am confident it will be fairly accurate and should do a good job in predicting the rankings.

Have you actually seen if OPR predicts better than a coin flip? I'd be curious at what point it exceeds the "pick random alliance" model or even the "pick alliance whose sum of rankings is lower" model.