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Predictions Week 2: Strategic Ascent
Ultimate Ascent kicked off with a bang in week one, and with a number of FRC stars set to compete in week two, the scores may continue to climb. Generally, defense was sparse and unfocused before the eliminations last weekend, but teams may have learned their lessons. Seeing 610 and 1986 run all over their opponents when uncontested during much of qualifications may wake teams up to the importance of defense. The best way to stop powerhouse teams in the eliminations is to keep them away from being the #1 seed. But with a very attainable scoring objective, the lure of offense may be too much for many teams to handle. While the initial difficulty of design was steep, effective scoring seems much more achievable in 2013 than in many other years.
The preseason darlings didn't fare quite as well in week one as the more "conventional" designs. Full court shooters found success, but the ones who translated it into the elimination rounds did so because they were flexible and were able to play a more traditional scheme as well. 70 and 610 hit long range bombs when they could, but much of their alliances' real damage came from pyramid range. Only 840 managed to use the corner shot as their primary scoring method and take home gold, and that required a full alliance effort to set up (and some of the most memorable ref decisions in a while during the semis). 30 point hangers were a real crowd pleaser, but only a few were quick and consistent. Given that virtually every team could hang for 10, the 20 point disparity in hanging points was often easily overcome by shooting (a 3-for-3 autonomous in the high goal means only one shot in tele-op is needed). Don't write these strategies off yet, but these teams are going to have to go through some growing pains as they find their place on alliances. 3123 and 910 demonstrated that full court shooters can have a place in a support role. 61 and 1559 showed that with proper shooting support and some good defense, quick climbing robots can play a very valuable role on a balanced alliance.
Strategies will likely continue to vary significantly from event to event and alliance to alliance during week two. Ground loading was the name of the game in Hatboro, while not a single robot in the finals at GSR had that skill. The one consistent factor will be autonomous scoring. Winning alliances will absolutely need to have two, if not three, bots consistently scoring in autonomous. If the third bot can't score in auton, they better bring something else very valuable to the table. When high powered alliances clash, it may come down to who can score more discs from the ground in the first fifteen. While focused defense can slow scoring rates, defense often contributes to traffic and ends up slowing both alliances. Parity is high during tele-op, leaving autonomous as the critical time to gain a lead.
The bullets: - Week one was not kind to "do everything" robots. Several teams had 30-point climbers that never went higher than the first rung and a some ground loaders could have atrophied away after autonomous without much notice. A couple of NASA juggernauts will unearth their attempts at robots that can accomplish every feat in this game. Watch to see if 118 and 254 actually use all of their bevy of features.
- Northern Lights is playing host to a pair of full court shooters that have high hopes for elimination success. Focused defense and shot blocking may force 2512 and 2826 away from the corners of the field, and Wave robotics in particular likely won't have any issue scoring at the pyramid. Watch to see how their alliances will react to defense against them. If they're able to coordinate well with their partners, both teams should have excellent odds of taking home a medal.
- The Martians are splitting up this year. One of the Goodrich twins took home gold in their first event apart last week, with 70 winning in Kettering. 494 is aiming to repeat that success at Waterford with their ability to launch full court and score 5 (or more) discs in auto. But the competition there will be even more stiff, so the Martians will have to excel.
- 1718 is arguably the best team in FRC without an event win. Their biggest problem may be their event selection, as FiM competition in the Eastern half of the state is always very intense. Waterford won't be easy for the Fighting Pi, but they'll be in the mix.
- Orange is in style in San Diego. Aside of Eagle Robotics' blaring color scheme, Code Orange Robotics and The Clockwork Oranges will be two young sleepers at the event. 3476 was the 1st overall pick at the event last year, and was part of an entirely 3000+ numbered champion alliance. 4322 is bringing a compact shooting machine that won't have to wait terribly long to know what alliance it will be on.
- Portland is shaping up to be a solid event, and without a clear favorite heading into the event, has the possibility for some really entertaining elimination matches. 488, 2471, 360, 1540 and 2046 should all be in the mix, but with this much parity at the event in a game that encourages parity, the third member of each alliance will have a lot of responsibility.
- Gull Lake is relatively quiet compared to the other FiM district this weekend. More than half the field has numbers north of 3000. But a pair of lesser heralded but still very successful members of Michigan's old guard are in the field, 85 and 107. Both should be competitive, but are likely going to play very well to hang with 2054, especially if the Tech Vikes ground pick-up and autonomous are clicking.
- The Nutrons are making the trek down from Boston all the way to Orlando. 125 will be the biggest name from out of town competing with a bunch of highly successful Floridians. The Nutrons once again have a beautifully crafted red and black machine, but will have to play up to their potential if they want to beat reigning world champs 180, 1251, 179, 233, and the 1592/801 twins. Swamp Thing's quick ascent to 20 points and pyramid scoring will make them one of the more interesting robots to watch, especially given that they should still be among the better scoring machines at the event. And there will be plenty of floor pick-up between bots 125, 180, 233, 801, and 1592.
- It may be yet another slow start for the kids from Cocoa Beach. The Pink Team has traditionally spent most of Thursday at their first even rebuilding their robot and making the final adjustments necessary. 233 usually doesn't hit their full stride until much later in the season, but that hasn't stopped them from winning Florida/Orlando in 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012. But 2009 was as a 2nd round pick, then they followed that up by missing the eliminations in 2010. The potential will be there, it's just a question if Roccobot will be ready.
- One of the big problems with 30-pt climbers in week one was the space in the pyramid they occupied. Not being able to drive or shoot through the pyramid limited the actions their alliance partners could take as their climber ascended the rungs. 1714's corner climbing pyramid-dumper may mitigate that issue. If the polycarbonate machine may be a much more attractive alliance partner to the high caliber shooters at Lake Superior than many other hanging robots.
- Shooting at the pyramid goal got the crowd excited, but was rarely successful. With the substantial increase in difficulty, it doesn't seem like it's worth the trouble for teams other than 2474. Will be interesting to see if any pyramid specialists emerge.
- Houston is where the big guns in Texas come to play. The Robonauts and Robowranglers will be the biggest attractions, but they are not the Lone Stars at the event. 118 and 148 will have plenty of competition from 624, 1477, 2587, and 2936. There's the potential for quite a showdown in the eliminations if the alliance line up correctly. Scouting to find a strong third member in a traditionally shallow field will be very important.
- NYC pioneered the Friday-Sunday format, but due to the destruction wrought by Sandy, the event is scheduled on the more traditional Thursday, Friday, Saturday this season. The move shouldn't impact the massive field of competitors. 694, 375, 395, and 1155 should all be playing past noon on Saturday, but none will be able to win without some significant help.
- 177 was rocking some nice big graphics to hide their robot's insides at Suffield, so there's obviously no way that any of us know they built a robot to interface with the corner of the pyramid. Stealth technology at its finest. Hopefully their climbing mechanism is worth the cost of not being able to run underneath the pyramid, as slogging through defense in front of the loading zones at WPI should be every bit as difficult and time consuming as it was for them at Suffield.
- Despite being a relatively new regional, WPI is loaded with grizzled vets. Slightly above 20% of the competition's bumpers will be adorned with numbers under 300, almost as many as those above 3000. 2067 and 2168 represents the best hope of the younger teams to best the old dogs like 173, 177, 190, and 228. GUS and the Apple Pi have a slight edge on the rest of the event, but a wise betting man would pick the field.
- Historically, the three most successful teams in Israel are 1574, 1657 and 1690. One or more of the three have won every single year of the regional's existence. MisCar and Orbit teams are fielding competitive shooting machines this year, and should be in the mix once more, and it would be foolish to count Hamosad out. But 2231 and 2630 have the potential to hang with Israel's elite if they play well.
- 987 hasn't lost a regional since 2010 and has been stopped short of the finals only twice since 2005 (both times at SVR). The last two times the High Rollers have come to San Diego, they took home some sort of medal. It would be very surprising if they don't do that again this weekend.
- The two biggest dogs in San Diego are the Cheesy Poofs and High Rollers, but 1538 and 399 aren't far behind. If either of them can find their groove quickly, they will be very dangerous (especially given Poofs' slow starts in recent years). Don't be surprised if 987 or 254 end up aligning with the Holy Cows or Eagle Robotics.
- Waterford is going to be one heck of a battle. The biggest names in the field are obviously 33 and 67, but they're far from alone. 51, 494, 1718, and 3098 should all be right in the mix with the Bees and HOT. The qualification matches will be critical here, as the #1 seed has the potential to really govern how the eliminations will unfold.
- With the Ontario teachers' strike unfortunately claiming 188's season (and potentially impacting the quality of other teams' robots) and 610 not competing at GTR-East, the biggest threat to 2056 preserving their flawless regional record is also their biggest ally, 1114. If the two pair up, it will once again be all but unstoppable. That's not to say the rest of the field won't be fine competitors, but the union of the NiagaraFIRST powerhouses hasn't been defeated anywhere but Atlanta (2009) and St. Louis (2012) to this point. If another team, such as 2809 (who gained experience competing in FLR last week), can slip into the #1 seed, the eliminations will become a lot more dramatic.
- Assume for a second that it's a strict choice between a useful ground pick-up and a useful 30-pt climbing mechanism. Assuming the ground loader still has a 10-pt hanging mechanism and picks up four additional discs in auton, they would have to shoot 84% with those discs to make up the disparity in climbing points. While this is oversimplifying the matter by ignoring the potential for decreased cycle time via ground loading during tele-op and negating the time differential between a 10 and 30 point hang, shooting 84% with discs that don't start in your robot during autonomous is a daunting task. Did 1114 make the right call in allocating that space to their climbing mechanism?
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I love the smell of burnt motors in the morning! - Mike Betts [more] 
06-03-2013, 21:55
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