OPR after Week Two Events

[Chris is me]

What do you guys think of OPR this year? It seems like based on a comparison of WPI's rankings versus the actual data we took, it is better than using ranking to sort teams, but still pretty noisy. I know our team's OPR was a bit low. I bet this was due to getting a lot of matches with other good teams at the regional where the score was lower than you'd expect (robot failures, etc). The other teams are ranked at least in the right ballpark, but not in a very solid order. 1100's OPR rank of #6 in particular is criminally low.

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

What do you guys think of OPR this year? It seems like based on a comparison of WPI's rankings versus the actual data we took, it is better than using ranking to sort teams, but still pretty noisy. I know our team's OPR was a bit low. I bet this was due to getting a lot of matches with other good teams at the regional where the score was lower than you'd expect (robot failures, etc). The other teams are ranked at least in the right ballpark, but not in a very solid order. 1100's OPR rank of #6 in particular is criminally low.

The OPR is a good representation of how good a team is this year. Without this coopertition award and coopertition points and weird ranking system, every team is trying to score as much as possible. However for regionals with lots of teams and not that many matches, there is still a lot of luck of the draw and the ranking will become meaningless. In that case, the OPR will still tell the truth about a team because data does not lie, only people do.

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

The OPR is a good representation of how good a team is this year. Without this coopertition award and coopertition points and weird ranking system, every team is trying to score as much as possible. However for regionals with lots of teams and not that many matches, there is still a lot of luck of the draw and the ranking will become meaningless. In that case, the OPR will still tell the truth about a team because data does not lie, only people do.

I did a little work after comparing to our actual scouting data, and it seemed while teams like ours had a reasonably accurate OPR, it's really easy for one's OPR to balloon this year, so in a regional ranking sense it's less accurate overall. Technical fouls and fouls aren't removed from the data. Teams that have a playstyle that draws fouls, or just played worse opponents, get an advantage in OPR.

At WPI, a few teams happened to have their non-functional matches paired with other good teams, and OPR doesn't really know how to separate that out. Additionally, defense is huge this year, making this game less separable than other games. So while our average contribution to a match might be close to our OPR, other teams were a ways off in one direction or the other due to scheduling oddities or hella technical fouls.

[Taylor]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

I did a little work after comparing to our actual scouting data, and it seemed while teams like ours had a reasonably accurate OPR, it's really easy for one's OPR to balloon this year, so in a regional ranking sense it's less accurate overall. Technical fouls and fouls aren't removed from the data. Teams that have a playstyle that draws fouls, or just played worse opponents, get an advantage in OPR.

(bolded for emphasis)
I don't follow your logic. Teams that score points by drawing fouls are still teams that score points, and points = offense.

[Citrus Dad]

Here's an interesting result: 294 has an OPR of 18.4 at the Central Valley. Yet it had no shooter so no auto or teleop points, and it couldn't hang. It had very strong defense (which put it very high on our #3 draft list--we picked 295, a strong defender as well instead). So something weird is happening the OPR if a team with no apparent offense is doing this well. Looks like the OPR this year is capturing defensive efforts as well.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Here's an interesting result: 294 has an OPR of 18.4 at the Central Valley. Yet it had no shooter so no auto or teleop points, and it couldn't hang. It had very strong defense (which put it very high on our #3 draft list--we picked 295, a strong defender as well instead). So something weird is happening the OPR if a team with no apparent offense is doing this well. Looks like the OPR this year is capturing defensive efforts as well.

All data is alliance wide, not robot specific.

This is why you can't rely on OPR as your only source of data.

[AdamHeard]

Originally Posted by Citrus Dad

Here's an interesting result: 294 has an OPR of 18.4 at the Central Valley. Yet it had no shooter so no auto or teleop points, and it couldn't hang. It had very strong defense (which put it very high on our #3 draft list--we picked 295, a strong defender as well instead). So something weird is happening the OPR if a team with no apparent offense is doing this well. Looks like the OPR this year is capturing defensive efforts as well.

They didn't score much, but they did score. We had them averaging .2 in auto with a max of 2, and 1.64 frisbees in teleop with a max of 4.