Predictions Week 5: Ascending the Ranks

[xSAWxBLADEx]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

Yessir they sure do. And what a robot!

It was very hard to play defense against them, very quick robot. If you let them through once they already have made 2 trips. It was definitely a robot that we needed to adapt to.

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

48 and 1126 have demonstrated the ability to have very good two-way play, but their offensive numbers might need a bit of a boost to overcome the established scoring machines.

48 will be watching Buckeye from home. We'll be at Crossroads Week 6.

[Abhishek R]

Glad to see the two Florida teams back on their feet for Alamo. Definitely going to be an interesting competition!

[Grim Tuesday]

Originally Posted by Travis Hoffman

48 will be watching Buckeye from home. We'll be at Crossroads Week 6.

Does anyone know why is the Blue Alliance is so wrong this year when it comes to what teams are registered for/attending which events?

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday

Does anyone know why is the Blue Alliance is so wrong this year when it comes to what teams are registered for/attending which events?

We signed up for Buckeye as insurance in case we couldn't find our primary option to get off the NYC waitlist and into a secure spot at another preferred event.

When a FLR spot opened up, Buckeye was punted to the curb, but TBA still shows it as a phantom event for us.

[Rangel]

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday

Does anyone know why is the Blue Alliance is so wrong this year when it comes to what teams are registered for/attending which events?

I think they updated during build season and haven't updated it since. We were signed up for Vegas but ended up deciding not to go due to financial reasons. The first website though is entirely accurate though if you wanted to be absolutely sure if a team is going somewhere.

[Craig Roys]

I think the climber/shooter hybrid has the potential to be the greatest threat in this game. If they have a minimum 18pt auton and a 20pt dump with the climb...watch out!

[Racer26]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

• Is there any better example of how well the Robot in 3 Days design can work than 4343? Max Tech's simple and reliable scoring machine captained the #2 alliance to the finals at GTR-East, and they should be one of the more consistent scoring machines at the other Toronto event this weekend. They may have to convert some of the twos they scored from the sides of the pyramid into more frequent threes if they want to reach the finals again, though.
• While there's a crop of rookies gearing up for their first ever FRC event at GTR-West, almost every veteran team has competed at least once in 2013 already. Many of them quite successfully. Experience and practice make a huge difference in teams' performances, and GTR-West is going to be a dandy because of it.
• Is there a combination more suited to play together than 1114 and 2056? The two robots compliments each other almost perfectly, and have absolutely dominated as a result. Given the diminishing returns of having multiple floor loading robots on an alliance (especially when teams aren't missing many shots or one already has a 7-disc autonomous), Simbotics' swift hanging mechanism looks like a brilliant choice at this point. Just like last year, it's likely going to take another team seeding at the top and separating them in order to bring one of them down. 1334, 1310, 1241, and 4343 seem like the best candidates to do that. Outside chances that 1503 and 772 could sneak in there as well, but they'd need very favorable schedules.

I certainly agree about the Ri3D comment. Weirdest part is, while Ri3D was certainly in the back of our minds when building Max 2.0, we didn't intentionally design a nearly identical robot.

As for converting those 2's to 3's. We're working on it. Also improved our hopper so we won't lose that top disk on about half of our traversals of the field. Should be good for 8-10 points/match improvement, I figure.

I agree it will take another team seeding #1 to take down the duo. I honestly think that of the 6 mentioned, 1310 is the most likely to be able to pull it off, and EVEN THEY would require a rather favourable schedule. I could see 4343 doing it also, but it would nearly require that any matches against one of the duo being paired with the other. 4343 had a relatively easy schedule at GTREast, being paired up with 1114 and 2056 each once, and only against 1114 once, never against 2056.

The real question is: If someone out-seeds 1114 and 2056, which one do you pick? 2056 for the 7disc auto, or 1114 for the 50pt climb+dump?

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Racer26

The real question is: If someone out-seeds 1114 and 2056, which one do you pick? 2056 for the 7disc auto, or 1114 for the 50pt climb+dump?

Depends on who you are, who else is available, and what their seeds are. If they're seeded high enough to decline you, it might be a moot point (other than forcing them to not be picked by another captain). If I'm a team with a 5+ disc auton (say 1241 or 1310), I'd probably go 1114. If I think a 30-50pt climber is going to be available at the end of the draft (say 2013), I'd lean towards 2056.

[Racer26]

Do you really think they'd decline?

I can't foresee any scenario in which either of the two would fall below the 4th alliance captain position.

If 4343 seeds #1, I would probably choose 2056 who would likely be #2-#4.

If 2056 declines, I'd choose 1114. 2056 would KNOW that, so they know that if they're outseeded, there's no chance of the two pairing up. Even if 2056 declined in order to be the #2 alliance captain, who would they choose that would be a strong contender against an 1114/4343 alliance? (The logic behind the strategy doesn't change much if you substitute any of the other strong 2nd tier bots for 4343, except that 2056 could choose 4343 and not have 2 robots with extra disc autons).

A #1 alliance of 4343/1114 means that most of the remaining strong contenders (1310, 1241) have extra disc auto's that conflict with 2056's reducing the alliances total scoring power from that of the sum of its parts.

I just can't see 1114 or 2056 declining a #1 seed picking them, barring a freak situation where a weak robot ends up #1.

The same situation happened last year at west when 3161 picked 1114. 1114 was #2. They could have declined, knowing they'd be up against a 3161/2056 alliance.

[Lil' Lavery]

Racer26, did you forsee 2056 falling to the 7th seed last year? 2056 also declined the #2 selection last year. Granted, there's no coopertition bridge this year, but it only takes 2-3 losses to fall down into the 5-10 range. Even the best teams can suffer a few "fluke" matches over the course of an event thanks to uneven match-ups, technical failures, or loads of foul points.

The two teams will be very aware that they're likely on a collision course. They'll do everything in their power to ensure they have the ideal alliance to beat the other. If they don't feel the #1 (or #2) seed is the proper partner, they will decline. Especially knowing that they can get an earlier 2nd round selection from a later captain position.

What would be really intersting is whether or not the #1 seed attempts to "scorch the Earth" before picking 1114 and/or 2056, in order to encourage them to accept if they know they can't pick other alliance captains.

[Squeakypig]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

[*]Three of the most revered names in Michigan will be competing at Troy, in HOT, the Thunder Chickens, and Las Guerillas. 67 and 217 will be looking to get their full court shooters on track after first events with finishes that did not live up their historical standards. HOT looks closer to their goals at this point, but it would be foolish to count out the team from Sterling Heights. 469's quick loading pyramid scoring machine could be the perfect compliment to either of them, and is favorite heading into the event. 68, 245, 2851, and 3539 will also be very dangerous, and it wouldn't be surprising at all to see an alliance with one of them knock out some of the bigger names. [*]With two districts already under their belts, it will be interesting to see if 2851 and 68 are more willing to take risks in order to win Troy. The Thunder Chickens, AdamBots, and Las Guerillas (while safe bets to reach MSC) need to accumulate points where they can in order to guarantee themselves a spot in St. Louis. [/list]

You are correct, one of our main goals at Troy is to make some waves. I would watch out for the high score of the season if by chance 67, 469, and 3539 get on the same alliance...very plausible in quals.

[Racer26]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Racer26, did you forsee 2056 falling to the 7th seed last year? 2056 also declined the #2 selection last year. Granted, there's no coopertition bridge this year, but it only takes 2-3 losses to fall down into the 5-10 range. Even the best teams can suffer a few "fluke" matches over the course of an event thanks to uneven match-ups, technical failures, or loads of foul points.

The two teams will be very aware that they're likely on a collision course. They'll do everything in their power to ensure they have the ideal alliance to beat the other. If they don't feel the #1 (or #2) seed is the proper partner, they will decline. Especially knowing that they can get an earlier 2nd round selection from a later captain position.

What would be really intersting is whether or not the #1 seed attempts to "scorch the Earth" before picking 1114 and/or 2056, in order to encourage them to accept if they know they can't pick other alliance captains.

Way too risky unless the other alliance captains you're scorching have pre-agreed to it.

And yes, 2056 was only that low because of the coop bridge. Not coopertating with 1114 and 2056 was a very common strategy in Ontario last year.

[kwotremb]

Originally Posted by NotaJoke

3414, 3604 and 4384 each have killer robots this year, but didn't quite have a chance to shine at Waterford due to the Killer-Pi alliance. I will be thoroughly shocked if at least two of those three aren't in the finals.

With so many capable teams, I'm almost tempted to say Livonia looks more interesting than Troy this year

Thanks for all the work you do, LF. Your analysis is always fun to read, and usually scarily accurate. Can't wait to see how this weekend plays out!

I'm glad that there is not any good powerhouse at this event, just because it will be anyone's game. Although being at events with perennial powerhouses are nice to help raise the bar and make everyone better, it will be fun to be at a wide open event. There will be more robots battling through out the qualifications for the number one seed. Strategy will play a huge roll, in both qualification matches as well as eliminations. We will see what teams the come up with a better game plan then other.

Good luck to all teams at Livonia.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Racer26

Way too risky unless the other alliance captains you're scorching have pre-agreed to it.

And yes, 2056 was only that low because of the coop bridge. Not coopertating with 1114 and 2056 was a very common strategy in Ontario last year.

Based on W/L/T, 2056 would have been 6th last year. They were 8-2. Five teams were 9-1. Assuming hybrid points were the first sort, 1114 would have been 1st though, and presumably selected 2056.