OPR after Week Five Events

[Ed Law]

The OPR/CCWM numbers up to Week 5 events have been posted, please see

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174

All events up to Week 5 are now included. I fixed a small bug for each event page in column T for "Record". The formula was wrong for rows beyond the first 37 teams.

If you find any error or have any questions, please let me know.

[Ether]

Weeks 1 thru 5 OPR & CCWM correlation to actual match results.


CCWM Column Headings & meaning:

E	event
M	Match
r1	r2	r3	b1	b2	b3	red & blue alliance teams
rs	red score
bs	blue score
crs	sum of red alliance teams' CCWMs
cbs	sum of blu alliance teams' CCWMs
rw	rs>bs?
crw	crs>cbs?
ccp	rw==crw? (CCWM correct prediction of match outcome?)

OPR Column Headings & meaning:

E	event
M	Match
r1	r2	r3	b1	b2	b3	red & blue alliance teams
rs	red score
bs	blue score
ors	OPR "expected" red alliance score
obs	OPR "expected" blue alliance score
drs	rs-ors
dbs	bs-obs
rgo	rs>ors?
bgo	bs>obs?
rw	rs>bs?
orw	ors>obs? (red win based on OPR scores?)
ocp	rw==orw? (OPR correct prediction of match outcome?)

[efoote868]

Once again, thank you Ed and Ether for posting this.

Summary of global OPR and CCWM match win/loss predictions: 81.72% and 82.47% respectively.

Does anyone have an idea of the number of teams yet to compete in week 6?

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by efoote868

Once again, thank you Ed and Ether for posting this.

Summary of global OPR and CCWM match win/loss predictions: 81.72% and 82.47% respectively.

Does anyone have an idea of the number of teams yet to compete in week 6?

278 teams in Ed's database haven't competed yet.

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by Basel A

278 teams in Ed's database haven't competed yet.

That would be a rough estimate. Some teams may have dropped out and not compete in any events.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Ether

Weeks 1 thru 5 OPR & CCWM correlation to actual match results

Oh, and here's a link to updated Twitter data for weeks 1 thru 5:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...53&postcount=1

[MisterJ]

As a second-year non-engineering mentor, I was wondering all off-season what my role on the team would be now the the team was able to mostly sustain itself. I discovered OPR and related statistics this year and they have kept me busy with scouting every week.

Thank you for all the work you do correlating this data each week! It has made FRC so much more interesting for me this year! I love watching the webcasts of high-OPR teams like 1114, and it doesn't hurt that OPR has made my own team look pretty darn good this year, (4th and 2nd in OPR, respectively, in their two district events, even without a banner to show for it).

So from a statistics geek from PA... thanks again!

[I-DOG]

It's bittersweet that we have the 5th highest OPR in the world and didn't qualify for Championship...

[AlexC]

Thanks for this. It was a pleasure to meet and win with you last Saturday.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by I-DOG

we have the 5th highest OPR in the world

What data are you looking at ?

[scottandme]

Originally Posted by Ether

What data are you looking at ?

The "Max OPR" column in the OPR Results sheet. Returns the highest OPR earned by that team at any event. Can be a better number to use when teams make significant improvements to their robots midseason (adding 7 disk auton, getting 30 point hang working, tuning code, etc).

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by scottandme

The "Max OPR" column in the OPR Results sheet. Returns the highest OPR earned by that team at any event. Can be a better number to use when teams make significant improvements to their robots midseason (adding 7 disk auton, getting 30 point hang working, tuning code, etc).

Yes, he was using the Max OPR and they have the 5th highest OPR out of all the teams at different regionals. That is a fact. However some people argue about some regionals being stronger than others. I don't know how strong Alamo is and I do not want people to get into a debate. 624 is a great team. Their world OPR ranking is 21.

The reason Ether was questioning is because when we compare teams across different regionals/district, we use World OPR and takes all interactions of teams into account. However it ranks team higher if they have been consistently good at different events than teams that did relatively not as well in their early events and improve a lot in later events. Both ways are valid in considering how good a team is.

My suggestion for 624 is to push for a district model in Texas. In the district model, you don't need to win an event to qualify. You just need to be consistently good. In fact it is possible for the 2nd round pick winning alliance team to not make it to State Championship or World Championship in the district model if they were just lucky in one event and do poorly in the other.

[Ether]

Here's a slightly different view of the data, FWIW.

I computed World OPR rankings based on Week5 data only, Week4 data only, Week3 data only, Weeks3&4 data only, Weeks3,4,&5 data only, and Weeks4&5 data only.

Results:

Weeks           624 Rank

5 only            3
4 only            N/A
3 only            3
4&5 only          4
3,4,&5 only       6
3&4 only          9

So yeah, Team 624 is doing quite well.

[DELurker]

I guess the thing to note in the 624 discussion is that the OPR is a number which reflects past performance and does not predict future results. Every match is open to any alliance winning, whether through multiple miscellaneous technical fouls, superior play, random Murphyisms, or strategic miscellany. It sounds like 624, though playing strongly, has fallen victim to random chance.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by DELurker

OPR is a number which reflects past performance and does not predict future results.

Does not predict 100%. But its correlation with match win/loss outcomes is unarguably statistically significant (witness earlier posts in this thread), and it is one among many useful scouting tools.