OPR after Week Five Events

[DELurker]

I guess the thing to note in the 624 discussion is that the OPR is a number which reflects past performance and does not predict future results. Every match is open to any alliance winning, whether through multiple miscellaneous technical fouls, superior play, random Murphyisms, or strategic miscellany. It sounds like 624, though playing strongly, has fallen victim to random chance.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by DELurker

OPR is a number which reflects past performance and does not predict future results.

Does not predict 100%. But its correlation with match win/loss outcomes is unarguably statistically significant (witness earlier posts in this thread), and it is one among many useful scouting tools.

[DELurker]

Originally Posted by Ether

Does not predict 100%. But its correlation with match win/loss outcomes is unarguably statistically significant (witness earlier posts in this thread), and it is one among many useful scouting tools.

True. Assuming that nothing changes from previous form, the OPR and CCWM can be very good indicators of probable results. However, there is an implicit error function on the numbers (otherwise, they would be 100% in the absence of meaningful changes). In addition, any team that knows they are on the short end of the statistics and does not try for a change in their favor is doing themselves a disservice.

I suppose that what I am trying to lead to is that the OPR and CCWM numbers are very useful tools (we use them a lot), but they only indicate based on the assumption that nothing will change from previous matches.

[Racer26]

So I was just toying with this spreadsheet out of interest.

I added a field to the OPR results page for each team's state/province, and filtered it based on that field, because I wanted to support my intuitive feeling that Ontario's second tier is much stronger because of the influence of 1114 and 2056.

Calculating average OPR's for different regions gives me the following results:

Avg Max OPR FIRST-Wide: 16.3

Avg Max OPR in Ontario: 23.3
Avg Max OPR in Michigan: 22.8
Avg Max OPR in Ontario (not including 1114 and 2056): 21.1
Avg Max OPR in New Jersey: 18.8
Avg Max OPR in Ohio: 18.6
Avg Max OPR in Pennsylvania: 18.5
Avg Max OPR in Indiana: 17.4
Avg Max OPR in New York: 16.8
Avg Max OPR in Quebec: 16.7
Avg Max OPR in Massachusetts: 16.1
Avg Max OPR in New Hampshire: 14.0
Avg Max OPR in California: 14.0
Avg Max OPR in Texas: 13.8
Avg Max OPR in Minnesota: 13.0

[Nemo]

Thanks for posting this information - I have fun with it. Also... congratulations on your team's win over the weekend.

[DELurker]

Originally Posted by Racer26

So I was just toying with this spreadsheet out of interest.

...

Calculating average OPR's for different regions gives me the following results:

Avg Max OPR FIRST-Wide: 16.3

Avg Max OPR in Ontario: 23.3
Avg Max OPR in Michigan: 22.8
Avg Max OPR in Ontario (not including 1114 and 2056): 21.1
Avg Max OPR in New Jersey: 18.8
...

(Edited for brevity)

What about Delaware? 27.8 Avg Max OPR. Of course, it's not as though we have enough teams to form a full alliance, much less a full match, but still...

[Racer26]

Originally Posted by DELurker

(Edited for brevity)

What about Delaware? 27.8 Avg Max OPR. Of course, it's not as though we have enough teams to form a full alliance, much less a full match, but still...

Two data points does not a trend make

[DELurker]

Originally Posted by Racer26

Two data points does not a trend make

True enough... but it's good enough for a little bit of bragging... at least until Iowa, Brazil (RS), and Nevada get in on the act.

Of the states/provinces/areas that can field their own matches, Mississippi, Hawaii, and Ontario are 1-2-3.

*sigh* One day, maybe we'll grow up to be a bigger state...

[Racer26]

Originally Posted by DELurker

Of the states/provinces/areas that can field their own matches, Mississippi, Hawaii, and Ontario are 1-2-3.

Field their own matches with teams that have played so far in 2013. HI has more than 6 teams, just only 6 of them play OUTSIDE of HI, since the Hawaii Regional hasn't happened yet.

And of those 3, only Ontario has had enough to hold a regional.

[JohnSchneider]

Texas and Minnesota both have a HUGE number of teams - most of which are very young. This could provide an explanation for the low scores.

[Racer26]

The other interesting thing, is how low CA is ranked by this metric. Below the FIRST-wide average, and yet CA is seen as one of the stronger regions.

I think this is an artifact of the sheer number of CA teams. Yes, they have 254, 330, 973, and more, but there are just so many of the weaker teams in CA that it skews their average.

[JohnSchneider]

Originally Posted by Racer26

The other interesting thing, is how low CA is ranked by this metric. Below the FIRST-wide average, and yet CA is seen as one of the stronger regions.

I think this is an artifact of the sheer number of CA teams. Yes, they have 254, 330, 973, and more, but there are just so many of the weaker teams in CA that it skews their average.

I think this pairs with the Texas/Minnesota thing. I'm interested to see if these regions will see an increase in strength with the move to districts (all. 3 regions are candidates) and the lengthened competition season and multiple regionals.

[Racer26]

Originally Posted by animenerdjohn

I think this pairs with the Texas/Minnesota thing. I'm interested to see if these regions will see an increase in strength with the move to districts (all. 3 regions are candidates) and the lengthened competition season and multiple regionals.

I hope we see more district models happening. I want to see a district model in Canada. An awfully large (and growing!) portion of Canadian teams have been forking out huge cash to compete in 2 or 3 regionals at $4k/pop.

[gabrielau23]

Sorry, I'm new to this page and thought it very interesting. I'm not sure how to open the reports? *wince

[Ether]

Originally Posted by gabrielau23

Sorry, I'm new to this page and thought it very interesting. I'm not sure how to open the reports? *wince

Which reports are you referring to? The XLS attachments in this thread, or Ed Law's XLSM scouting database whitepaper?