OPR after Week Five Events

[efoote868]

I'm sure that integer rounding can be excused.

[Ether]

FWIW, I calculated OPR using all qual data for weeks 1 thru 5 PLUS week6 Friday, and used that to predict Saturday Qual matches at Crossroads.

It got Matches 65 and 84 right, but got Match 80 wrong.

64
70
72
73
76
78
80

[efoote868]

I'm wondering if OPR predictions at the Championship event will be similar; Crossroads had a fairly deep field with an average OPR of about 27.6.

[Ether]

Max Event OPR achieved by each of the 2,490 teams

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by Ether

OPR & CCWM from Weeks 1-6 Qual data:

_2490 teams
_6091 matches
12182 alliances

14.69 average OPR
12.20 median OPR

-2.11 average CCWM
-4.11 median CCWM

Histograms:

Wait a minute, Ether. How can average CCWM not be zero? For each event, the sum of CCWM should be zero. In most cases, they are. But there are some events that has a small positive or negative number. I think it must be due to round off error. Is that correct? Then how can the average CCWM be -2.11?

[Joe Ross]

What is the match with an OPR residual of 280+?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

Wait a minute, Ether. How can average CCWM not be zero?

Take the average of cells Cells R4 thru R2493 on sheet "World Rank" in your spreadsheet.

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

What is the match with an OPR residual of 280+?

Back to the drawing board. Thanks for keeping me honest.

I found an equals sign where there should have been a minus sign in one of my AWK scripts.

Here's a corrected version.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

Wait a minute, Ether. How can average CCWM not be zero? For each event, the sum of CCWM should be zero. In most cases, they are. But there are some events that has a small positive or negative number. I think it must be due to round off error. Is that correct? Then how can the average CCWM be -2.11?

It's not due to rounding error. It's due to the match schedule.

If you look carefully, you'll see that the average CCWM is zero only for those events where the schedule had each team playing the same number of times.

When you do World CCWM, this effect is exaggerated.

The CCWM residuals, however, will always sum to zero, regardless of schedule.

[Programmer3941]

Although this data sheet is now slightly old news...what is this black magic that puts my team's OPR above 341, 365, 233, and 379? Last time I checked, 3941 was ranked 262...quite frankly, I am astonished by this considering our current regional ranking. What factors go into OPR that could produce such a result?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Programmer3941

What factors go into OPR that could produce such a result?

The computation of OPR is explained here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...0&postcount=36

and here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...0&postcount=11

and here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...86&postcount=9

and here:

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/download/3321

[Programmer3941]

Aha. Makes better sense now. Thanks Ether.

[MikeE]

Originally Posted by Programmer3941

What factors go into OPR that could produce such a result?

Luck.

The randomness of scheduling can boost OPR if you are partnered with relatively low scoring teams in a high scoring match.