An in depth look at the Michigan State Championship

[IKE]

Originally Posted by Ronnie314

Our scouting data base was where I have information from. But yes I agree with the not shooting full court all the time, agree 100% with you and feel the same for us. I was more referring to the fact that we weren't even on the list. But I do want to have a match with 2 FCS.

FiM Informer, Really good analysis but 314 should have been in the FCS list. Are you sure you didn't typo 3414? I didn't remember them being an FCS, but I did not see their Livonia performance.

I would actually say, from an FCS perspective, 67 and 314 are really close. I was at Detroit and Troy where both of those teams competed as their second events and showcased really well FCS. Compairing events is tough because while Detroit had a lot of blockers, they teams didn't really use them much, and 314 was given open field several times where as 67 would often use the Gun and Run FCS/Cycler hybrid at Troy. 67 and 469 are much more versatile teams with FCS, but 314 has likely delivered more discs this season from that location.

[kwotremb]

Originally Posted by IKE

FiM Informer, Really good analysis but 314 should have been in the FCS list. Are you sure you didn't typo 3414? I didn't remember them being an FCS, but I did not see their Livonia performance.

I would actually say, from an FCS perspective, 67 and 314 are really close. I was at Detroit and Troy where both of those teams competed as their second events and showcased really well FCS. Compairing events is tough because while Detroit had a lot of blockers, they teams didn't really use them much, and 314 was given open field several times where as 67 would often use the Gun and Run FCS/Cycler hybrid at Troy. 67 and 469 are much more versatile teams with FCS, but 314 has likely delivered more discs this season from that location.

It could be, we pretended once at Waterford when we had a very good matchup, but did not work well. We are better at cycling and have little if any plans to attempt many if any full court shots. We robot can do it, but we are more efficient cycling.

[jlmcmchl]

Originally Posted by kwotremb

I think a lot of teams feel this way here and there. Hey I feel that we 3414 are better than some of the teams on here, but I also feel some very good robots where left off, even just from honorable mentions: 3641



We have this proof that we are better, our max OPR (50.5 from Livonia) is better than other cycle teams on the list, 27, 1189, 3656. Our average OPR will put us ahead of some others as well. Plus a finalist and district winner is nothing to hold back either. Truthfully with our history and capabilities at the start of the season, its just an honor to be mentioned on the same playing field as some of these teams.

I'd just like to say the our non-opr based scouting data put us at an avg 50 pts per match, and you guys hung out around 37. We picked 1189 in eliminations because they were above you in our scouting, and we worked together very well during qualifications.

So OPR, by no means, is ever correct. It's a good approximation, but only when you've got the actual, delimited data is when it's effective. I'd like to wait an see how MSC plays out before making any calls, because I can't possibly be accurate based on some teams not having even played for a few weeks, and others changing dramatically over the course of the season.

In no way am I saying that Team RUSH is going to to MSC to kick butt and chew bubble gum, except we're all out of bubble gum. I know that the fields we played at were of completely different caliber to the likes of troy and Bedford, with the commanding teams going into MSC, along with other teams up there. I know we're competitive and will give 100%, but I just don't know where that fits within the field.

[Iaquinto.Joe]

There will not be a FCS in the semifinals. Period. Full court shooters have shown little reliability in elims where people can slap on a blocker to their bot over lunch. Maybe an FCS will be able to squeeze their way into an alliance captain spot, but they will not be successful unless they are versatile or it isn't a main goal of their bot (e.g. 469). The top 4 alliances will all have 7 disc autonomous capability, the top 2 featuring a total 15 disc. Ultimately, 469 seeds first, picks 33, and the third pick just has a strong drivetrain, 3 disc autonomous, and the ability to cycle. Exclusive 30pt climbers will be second picks of 5-8 alliances, and lose in QF.

[Jared Russell]

Originally Posted by Chris Hibner

Ok, Jared, you have to let us in on your thought process. Your posts have me interested.

There's one reason why I think the #1 seed might not do it this year: the field is so even that many (if not most) of the matches will be a crap shoot. The schedule will be important and there's a decent chance of a surprise team being the #1 seed.

I think the odds are lower than in the past that the #1 seed will be one of the two or three highest scoring robots.

I think the odds are higher than in the past that a better-on-paper alliance can be beaten in the eliminations.

If I multiply out the probabilities, I think it is more likely than not that the #1 seed will not win the event.

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by Chris Hibner

There's one reason why I think the #1 seed might not do it this year: the field is so even that many (if not most) of the matches will be a crap shoot. The schedule will be important and there's a decent chance of a surprise team being the #1 seed.

That's how MSC felt to me in 2011. Every alliance hit the diminishing returns in tubes and had strong minibots such that most matches seemed like a "minibot coin toss."

We've certainly seen surprise top seeds before. I don't think very many people expected 1918 to seed 1st in 2010 or 217 in 2011, though they were both strong teams. 1918 went all the way, of course. 217 lost in the QFs, but had a great CMP, captaining Newton's 7th alliance to Einstein.

[NotaJoke]

Originally Posted by Iaquinto.Joe

There will not be a FCS in the semifinals. Period. Full court shooters have shown little reliability in elims where people can slap on a blocker to their bot over lunch. Maybe an FCS will be able to squeeze their way into an alliance captain spot, but they will not be successful unless they are versatile or it isn't a main goal of their bot (e.g. 469). The top 4 alliances will all have 7 disc autonomous capability, the top 2 featuring a total 15 disc. Ultimately, 469 seeds first, picks 33, and the third pick just has a strong drivetrain, 3 disc autonomous, and the ability to cycle. Exclusive 30pt climbers will be second picks of 5-8 alliances, and lose in QF.

I believe the full court shooter plays a very different role here; it fulfills the saying "the best defense is a good offense." In the case of elimination matches such as seed 1 versus seed 8, where the third robots on the alliance will be of rather varying in capability (an OPR as high as 60 in the 8th seed, and as low as 20 in the first seed) a third robot full court shooter requires the other third robot to cease normal defense (that would have prevented pyramid play of the first and second robots of the first seed) or leave the FCS undefended, thus allowing it to score many more disks than the other third robot. In the likely chance that the defense is pulled, the match then becomes a 2v2, with a distinct advantage for the 1st alliance.

On the topic of First seeded alliances, Michigan has been dominated by the first seed, with 9 of 11 district competitions being won by their first seed. The only time a fist alliance didn't win was when one of their main shooters wasn't functioning properly (Troy) or the field was very even to begin with (Livonia.) It's possible that MSC could mirror Livonia, but that won't be clear, as this is the first chance each of these teams has had to compete in a field this diverse and this difficult.

[kwotremb]

All we can say now is let the fun begin and may the best teams win. Lets see how MSC plays out and how close these predictions are.

[stuart2054]

I agree of most of what has been said in this thread. I think MSC will be about diversification and adaptation. The more you can do and are willing to adapt to the better off you will be. I feel good about our mix of "talents" but there are a number of things you can not predict but can only react to. The depth of talented teams and robots in this competition is something you don't see at the district level and stategy has to evolve to suit that reality. By rough count we have played with and competed against roughly 1/3 of the teams at MSC leaving 2/3 that we have little or no direct experience with this season. Then factor in if you were at a first district event with a team, they have probably improved significantly. I know it will be a great event.

To our friends from the east side, don't under estimate the west side teams that make it here. I have seen most of them first hand and the ones that make it have earned it and might just suprise you.

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by NotaJoke

I believe the full court shooter plays a very different role here; it fulfills the saying "the best defense is a good offense." In the case of elimination matches such as seed 1 versus seed 8, where the third robots on the alliance will be of rather varying in capability (an OPR as high as 60 in the 8th seed, and as low as 20 in the first seed) a third robot full court shooter requires the other third robot to cease normal defense (that would have prevented pyramid play of the first and second robots of the first seed) or leave the FCS undefended, thus allowing it to score many more disks than the other third robot. In the likely chance that the defense is pulled, the match then becomes a 2v2, with a distinct advantage for the 1st alliance.

This is spot on. We used this strategy at three regionals and it paid off. Having a FCS and a strong pyramid shooter/cycler often means that they have to pick one or the other to block, leaving one capable robot unattended. I think this is the role we will see in champs, they will be a great distraction at worst and a devastator at best.

[nikeairmancurry]

Originally Posted by John_1102

I'm confused. Team 11 is a better pure feeder station robot than 245 IMHO.

Only if team 11 was at the Michigan State Championship..

[AdamHeard]

Is there a webcast tomorrow?

[nikeairmancurry]

Originally Posted by AdamHeard

Is there a webcast tomorrow?

http://www.coderedrobotics.com/webcast/

Matches start at 3pm tomorrow..

[CrevoDesign]

Originally Posted by FiM Informer

[/list]

• Honorable Mentions: 3414, 2619, 2851, 858, 2612, 314
• A special note about these honorable mentions: Unlike the other honorable mentions, every single one of these teams has had considerable success at the district level. The rankings are somewhat arbitrary towards the bottom because all of these robots have good talent. But, as pure cyclers without significant improvements, they’ll most likely be fighting to get picked at the tail-end of alliance selections.

2851 Has always been able to pick up of the floor but we only use it for our autons. incase you haven't actually seen any of the matches that we got jammed with 2 disks and used our arm to dunk 1 pointers.

[Abhishek R]

Originally Posted by Jared341

I think the odds are lower than in the past that the #1 seed will be one of the two or three highest scoring robots.

I think the odds are higher than in the past that a better-on-paper alliance can be beaten in the eliminations.

If I multiply out the probabilities, I think it is more likely than not that the #1 seed will not win the event.

I have to agree with Jared. At an event with the depth such as Michigan, I think the number one alliance is gonna have to really work to win it.