2013 MAR Regional Championship

[Joe Ross]

Similar to what I did in previous years, I ran through 100 simulated qualification match schedules (with 12 matches per team, using the FIRST match generator).

I used each team's world rank OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet to determine their contribution to a match. I also used the autonomous OPR, climb OPR, and teleop OPR to help calculate the standings.

I calculated the results for each of the 100 simulated qualification schedules, and then looked at some statistics from the aggregate results.

The following were the values that were used in the simulation

	OPR	Teleop	Auto	Climb
225	66.85	43.11	16.39	7.14
2590	58.95	31.09	20.83	7.10
11	58.61	34.37	13.83	10.25
1676	54.55	28.85	15.82	10.23
316	47.33	25.38	13.25	9.34
1626	45.57	21.90	13.70	10.12
2729	45.15	22.83	13.70	8.52
293	44.97	23.39	14.56	7.11
103	43.65	21.94	14.10	7.62
3974	42.96	20.76	13.54	9.41
56	42.16	20.50	11.56	10.21
303	39.84	31.01	7.44	1.52
1228	38.48	19.25	8.71	10.51
1218	33.81	13.65	10.56	8.40
3314	33.73	13.69	14.17	6.10
4575	32.75	15.83	16.66	0.91
2607	32.74	5.69	13.42	13.43
222	32.67	15.91	10.49	6.07
1640	32.44	22.59	9.79	0.79
1391	32.07	18.38	9.19	5.26
4285	31.16	13.59	11.01	6.67
1279	30.87	12.53	15.09	3.36
1403	29.62	7.58	15.58	6.35
193	27.77	13.31	8.64	5.96
816	27.55	10.86	6.89	9.78
2539	27.14	5.99	10.95	9.93
272	26.92	11.84	8.62	6.46
4342	26.58	11.84	11.18	4.25
75	25.06	-0.01	1.34	23.68
1370	24.92	11.44	7.13	6.46
2559	24.12	8.80	7.98	7.49
486	21.91	3.12	12.37	7.07
1089	21.83	9.44	8.04	4.47
1302	19.26	9.02	6.57	3.71
357	18.22	3.50	6.82	8.59
433	18.06	8.07	7.43	3.22
1367	16.95	2.90	10.63	4.02
224	16.35	2.48	8.50	5.42
1923	15.94	6.53	4.31	5.09
1881	15.01	4.14	7.29	3.63
3340	14.55	5.20	3.14	6.34
1672	14.00	7.46	1.25	5.52
714	12.35	6.07	1.95	4.56
223	11.96	3.13	4.51	4.44
4475	11.72	6.66	4.82	0.38
869	10.11	4.09	0.60	5.54
4460	9.55	4.15	1.37	4.03
1143	9.13	4.85	5.42	-0.93
2495	7.35	6.10	0.85	-0.83

Here are the results of how teams seed:

	AvgRnk	MedRnk	ModeRnk	MinRnk	MaxRnk	SDRnk	#1Seed	Top8
225	2.53	2	1	1	15	2.18	39	97
2590	3.64	3	1	1	14	2.73	23	92
11	4.26	4	4	1	14	2.97	16	90
1676	4.99	4	4	1	20	3.71	12	87
316	10.04	9	7	1	37	6.85	3	47
1626	10.57	9	11	1	30	6.27	3	42
2729	10.4	9	8	2	26	5.85	0	48
293	9.9	8	7	1	31	5.97	1	51
103	10.55	10	8	2	30	6.13	0	46
3974	10.34	9	7	1	29	6.04	2	42
56	12.55	11	8	1	34	6.79	1	32
303	16.52	15	15	2	39	7.95	0	15
1228	16.18	15	17	4	43	8.01	0	17
1218	18.55	18	18	3	38	8.09	0	9
3314	19.12	19	16	3	45	8.99	0	14
4575	18.84	19	20	3	43	7.99	0	9
2607	18.55	17	14	3	43	8.86	0	10
222	21.3	21	17	5	42	8.22	0	5
1640	22.6	23	23	7	42	8.53	0	4
1391	21.29	21	19	5	43	8.80	0	7
4285	20.57	20.5	30	2	39	8.14	0	7
1279	20.54	20	15	4	45	8.22	0	6
1403	21.52	21.5	29	4	43	9.30	0	5
193	26.01	26	27	8	45	9.34	0	2
816	26.07	26	32	5	47	9.02	0	2
2539	27.05	29	30	4	47	9.62	0	4
272	26.44	25	25	5	47	9.44	0	2
4342	24.54	24	29	4	44	8.80	0	3
75	30.26	32	36	9	48	9.73	0	0
1370	29.06	31	34	7	45	9.13	0	2
2559	28.55	28	26	5	48	8.71	0	2
486	29.34	29	28	7	49	8.70	0	1
1089	32.44	33	38	12	46	8.17	0	0
1302	34.61	35	38	15	48	7.95	0	0
357	34.79	36	43	10	48	8.20	0	0
433	34.52	34.5	41	11	49	8.27	0	0
1367	34.14	36	38	17	49	8.83	0	0
224	34.69	36	31	13	49	9.03	0	0
1923	36.46	39	41	10	49	8.49	0	0
1881	36.58	37	35	11	49	8.39	0	0
3340	39.61	40.5	41	17	49	6.73	0	0
1672	40.16	41.5	48	15	49	7.15	0	0
714	41.39	43	40	16	49	6.32	0	0
223	38.62	40	46	21	49	6.92	0	0
4475	41.02	42	40	19	49	5.91	0	0
869	43.51	45	47	20	49	5.80	0	0
4460	43.43	44	48	28	49	4.99	0	0
1143	42.22	44	47	22	49	5.90	0	0
2495	44.14	46	49	22	49	5.61	0	0

Here are the results for number of wins:

	AvgWins	MedWins	ModeWins	MinWins	MaxWins	SDWins
225	10.75	11	11	7	12	0.96
2590	9.9	10	10	7	12	1.17
11	10.12	10	10	8	12	1.06
1676	9.57	10	10	6	12	1.20
316	8.47	8.5	9	4	12	1.52
1626	8.23	8	8	5	11	1.34
2729	8.2	8	8	5	11	1.33
293	8.19	8	8	5	11	1.29
103	8.2	8	8	5	11	1.40
3974	8.23	8	7	5	11	1.42
56	7.92	8	8	4	12	1.40
303	7.5	7.5	8	4	11	1.43
1228	7.44	8	8	3	11	1.42
1218	6.82	7	7	4	10	1.32
3314	6.49	6	6	3	10	1.46
4575	6.36	6	6	3	10	1.28
2607	6.66	7	7	3	11	1.48
222	6.37	6	6	3	9	1.32
1640	6.23	6	6	3	9	1.46
1391	6.5	6.5	7	3	10	1.48
4285	6.47	6	6	4	11	1.41
1279	6.17	6	6	3	9	1.24
1403	6.03	6	5	3	10	1.42
193	5.74	6	6	2	9	1.47
816	5.87	6	5	2	10	1.48
2539	5.44	5	5	2	10	1.61
272	5.65	6	6	2	10	1.56
4342	5.77	6	5	3	10	1.39
75	5.46	5	5	2	9	1.43
1370	5.36	5	5	2	9	1.52
2559	5.39	5	5	2	9	1.40
486	4.96	5	5	0	9	1.45
1089	4.67	5	4	2	8	1.30
1302	4.4	4	4	1	7	1.33
357	4.43	4	4	2	8	1.34
433	4.42	4.5	5	1	8	1.47
1367	4.18	4	5	1	7	1.43
224	4.16	4	4	1	7	1.51
1923	4.29	4	4	1	8	1.48
1881	4.02	4	4	1	8	1.49
3340	3.72	4	4	1	6	1.30
1672	3.75	4	5	0	8	1.46
714	3.55	4	4	0	7	1.26
223	3.79	4	4	0	7	1.35
4475	3.38	4	4	1	7	1.29
869	3.1	3	3	1	7	1.18
4460	3.05	3	3	1	6	1.18
1143	3.05	3	2	1	6	1.30
2495	2.85	3	3	0	7	1.36