Archimedes 2013!!!

[MrJohnston]

Now that I have had time to really study our field, I'll share my thoughts - without, however, sharing team numbers.

Out of the 100 teams in Archimedes:
* 7 are really, really good - any one of them could be the #1 captain
* 16 others are really good and will be playing in eliminations - barring techinical problems.
* 27 will need divine intervention if they are going to chosen for alliances
* The other 50 will be desperately trying to separate themselves to take one of the two remaining slots.


Autonomous and Ground pickup:
* There are a lot of teams with good pickup systems - a lot. Those that are also consistent scorers (about 12) will make it into eliminations.
* Four or five teams in eliminations with have the capability of 90 pt autonomous routines - in an effort to separate themselves, several teams with pickups will add nifty auto routines to make this possible.
* In eliminations NOBODY will score 90 in autonomous because many cycler w/o pickup systems will develop auto routines that have them roll back and straddle the center disks, effectively blocking the other team from getting them.

Cyclers:
* There are a LOT of excellent cyclers. Those that cannot shoot full court or pick up disks will need to separate themslves somehow. There will be 20-30 good cyclers that do not make eliminations.
* In an effort to separate themselves, they will try all sorts of things such as establishing auto routines that will block the midline disks from the other team or developing defensive skills showing they can stop top bots.

FCS:
* This is the most shallow part of our talent pool - most of the good ones tend to spend most of their time cycling as they are short and easy to block from the protected feeder.
* Those who do will well need to hit 3's with 70% accuracy, be able to fire 40+ disks and can only be slowed by a designated blocker.
* Those that are top-heavy are going to have problems as they can expect a lot of contact en route to the feeder. Those who land on their backsides will not make eliminations.
* To be successfull, the FCS will have to have options should they face the dreaded "rookie with a pool noodle" defense.
* This really narrows the field to only two or three good pure FCS - all of which should make elims.

Climbers:
* There are a bunch of great climbers. however, the only ones who will make elims are those who can do so quickly. The others (even with a dump) take so long to do so that they will not bring enough value to their team. (Somebody will play defense against them for the first 30 second of the match and completely prevent them from being able to get up the pyramid. Those good ones also cycle. Most like the top cycler and/or pickup bot will one of the climbers.


Alliance captains will have some really tough decisions to make. A 72pt autonomous is a must. However, are they going to want one of the two or three good FCS? If the an alliance captain is a cycler w/o ground pick our FCS capabilities, this will create are real difficulty....

With 100 teams and (likely) about 10 qualification matches, I predict two undefeated teams - they could be any of those seven. The #1 captain will have a ground pickup as it will win the Autonmous tie breaker. The best FCS will be chosen with the first pick and, with the 24th overall the top alliance will choose the best cycler avialble - hopefully with ground pickup.


The winning alliance will have:
* At least one (prefereably 2) robots that can pick loose disks from teh ground. If only one, it will have a 7 disk auotonmomous and one other bot will have an auto routine that blocks the midline disks from the opposing alliance.
* A FCS that demands the full attention of the other team.
* A 30 pt climb (prefereably with a dump) by any robot.
* The ability to take all 51 disks from the feeder with less than three bots.