Archimedes 2013!!!

[Jim Wilks]

Originally Posted by MrJohnston

Now that I have had time to really study our field, I'll share my thoughts - without, however, sharing team numbers.

Out of the 100 teams in Archimedes:
* 7 are really, really good - any one of them could be the #1 captain
* 16 others are really good and will be playing in eliminations - barring techinical problems.
* 27 will need divine intervention if they are going to chosen for alliances
* The other 50 will be desperately trying to separate themselves to take one of the two remaining slots.

Nice insight. I expect most reams know which group they are in. Clearly we will be seeing a lot of good matches as this plays out.

[Gregor]

Originally Posted by Jim Wilks

Nice insight. I expect most reams know which group they are in. Clearly we will be seeing a lot of good matches as this plays out.

Funny you say that, because I'm having a hard time placing you. Are you really really good or just really good barring technical issues?

[Jim Wilks]

Originally Posted by Gregor

Funny you say that, because I'm having a hard time placing you. Are you really really good or just really good barring technical issues?

We certainly don't ever consider ourselves really really good. We have had a bit of good luck this season, but luck comes and goes...

[EricDrost]

Originally Posted by Gregor

Funny you say that, because I'm having a hard time placing you. Are you really really good or just really good barring technical issues?

I agree - I placed the top six fairly easily but can't definitively draw a line at 7. There are a handful of teams (1334 included) that could absolutely be in the first group, but I can't make a strong enough distinction between who is better to warrant making the cut-off the 7th team.

[MrJohnston]

Originally Posted by efoote868

Play defense. Part of the thing that makes the best cyclers is their driver's abilities. Playing "avoid the other robots" can be more difficult than "hassle the opposing robots"

Exactly. Plus, should the opposing team throw up a tall pool-noodle robot, the cycler could start running cycles while the FCS plays defense- thus the importance of not being too top-heavy. Mr. Pool Noodle will be left inept, unable to play offense effectively making it a 3 on 2 game for the the team employing the FCS.

[XaulZan11]

Originally Posted by efoote868

Play defense. Part of the thing that makes the best cyclers is their driver's abilities. Playing "avoid the other robots" can be more difficult than "hassle the opposing robots"

I agree that looking at cyclers is a good place to start to find defense, but there are many very good cyclers (4+ cycles) that would be pretty bad at defense.

[the.miler]

In addition to our shooting game, no ceilings can hold us now! Team 846 has gotten the climb working, and we are continuing to work right now to shave precious seconds off it.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ls-stEVTN8

The next step is the same geometry, but we're not climbing for 30 on that test pyramid. We'll see what we can do on the field

Look out for our flashlight, improved shooting, floor pickup, and climbing game on the Archimedes field!

[Joe Ross]

I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	AP	TP	CP
1	3314	8	0	0	8	16	274	418	163
2	11	8	0	0	8	16	267	510	159
3	33	7	1	0	8	14	380	485	203
4	469	7	1	0	8	14	315	576	163
5	948	7	1	0	8	14	283	675	104
6	987	7	1	0	8	14	272	577	220
7	1334	7	1	0	8	14	271	438	163
8	316	7	1	0	8	14	267	402	172
9	126	7	1	0	8	14	248	510	113
10	701	7	1	0	8	14	244	445	160
11	3310	7	1	0	8	14	241	363	114
12	1100	7	1	0	8	14	233	425	210
13	254	6	2	0	8	12	323	365	236
14	2959	6	2	0	8	12	285	451	174
15	2468	6	2	0	8	12	273	379	82
16	2165	6	2	0	8	12	272	348	168
17	2486	6	2	0	8	12	268	300	184
18	20	6	2	0	8	12	264	563	149
19	3467	6	2	0	8	12	257	381	266
20	4450	6	2	0	8	12	256	296	220
21	1519	6	2	0	8	12	234	474	115
22	2137	6	2	0	8	12	229	391	130
23	955	6	2	0	8	12	208	475	207
24	1836	6	2	0	8	12	196	315	152
25	868	5	3	0	8	10	317	566	183
26	2590	5	3	0	8	10	315	395	178
27	365	5	3	0	8	10	281	375	111
28	314	5	3	0	8	10	279	466	128
29	836	5	3	0	8	10	258	311	201
30	71	5	3	0	8	10	258	306	227
31	2415	5	3	0	8	10	254	492	140
32	4265	5	3	0	8	10	243	439	156
33	4753	5	3	0	8	10	228	266	136
34	694	5	3	0	8	10	225	456	201
35	2016	5	3	0	8	10	218	372	104
36	4067	5	3	0	8	10	208	280	81
37	236	5	3	0	8	10	204	273	264
38	1868	5	3	0	8	10	202	334	132
39	1902	5	3	0	8	10	180	361	171
40	2543	4	4	0	8	8	297	401	141
41	930	4	4	0	8	8	270	433	152
42	51	4	4	0	8	8	265	447	153
43	1660	4	4	0	8	8	263	287	115
44	3145	4	4	0	8	8	242	348	193
45	973	4	4	0	8	8	229	360	145
46	3003	4	4	0	8	8	222	312	181
47	840	4	4	0	8	8	219	353	143
48	1967	4	4	0	8	8	214	294	145
49	1011	4	4	0	8	8	211	212	179
50	2705	4	4	0	8	8	208	207	256
51	3612	4	4	0	8	8	206	287	133
52	3242	4	4	0	8	8	203	425	78
53	1071	4	4	0	8	8	194	280	132
54	4585	4	4	0	8	8	192	320	131
55	4501	4	4	0	8	8	179	227	187
56	4545	4	4	0	8	8	162	321	131
57	1714	4	4	0	8	8	148	225	205
58	3008	4	4	0	8	8	148	224	92
59	326	3	5	0	8	6	253	332	141
60	1756	3	5	0	8	6	244	281	128
61	172	3	5	0	8	6	235	285	139
62	801	3	5	0	8	6	233	285	170
63	525	3	5	0	8	6	218	331	135
64	3245	3	5	0	8	6	218	295	122
65	1448	3	5	0	8	6	212	265	239
66	4637	3	5	0	8	6	201	269	138
67	379	3	5	0	8	6	196	294	130
68	4471	3	5	0	8	6	196	225	169
69	910	3	5	0	8	6	195	271	91
70	1796	3	5	0	8	6	193	283	150
71	1075	3	5	0	8	6	187	245	138
72	2614	3	5	0	8	6	180	335	126
73	4673	3	5	0	8	6	180	306	142
74	3478	3	5	0	8	6	172	177	100
75	4589	3	5	0	8	6	154	246	118
76	846	2	6	0	8	4	276	446	126
77	4466	2	6	0	8	4	248	366	167
78	2704	2	6	0	8	4	242	235	112
79	2709	2	6	0	8	4	201	314	128
80	3044	2	6	0	8	4	198	238	107
81	78	2	6	0	8	4	196	312	140
82	1595	2	6	0	8	4	193	316	106
83	2408	2	6	0	8	4	181	255	150
84	321	2	6	0	8	4	179	157	141
85	4499	2	6	0	8	4	171	206	174
86	433	2	6	0	8	4	148	282	124
87	639	2	6	0	8	4	148	203	156
88	812	2	6	0	8	4	146	273	141
89	4470	2	6	0	8	4	144	242	128
90	291	2	6	0	8	4	142	295	176
91	4537	2	6	0	8	4	138	290	81
92	2081	1	7	0	8	2	277	285	165
93	2457	1	7	0	8	2	210	308	55
94	2604	1	7	0	8	2	205	230	131
95	3627	1	7	0	8	2	190	219	185
96	4810	1	7	0	8	2	182	308	114
97	3504	1	7	0	8	2	182	164	109
98	1610	1	7	0	8	2	166	275	118
99	4731	1	7	0	8	2	144	226	85
100	1747	0	8	0	8	0	181	150	82

Here are the results from the individual matches

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	RScore	BScore
1	2604	2959	78	1714	1747	3504	108	47
2	2486	51	987	4466	4471	1011	170	67
3	801	236	3145	910	3044	1610	131	77
4	4589	1902	4545	4731	2408	4470	55	36
5	1660	836	1519	846	694	3242	126	118
6	2704	3314	1334	379	3612	2415	128	103
7	4585	2457	2137	701	3245	525	80	136
8	1071	433	4673	4499	973	1796	52	107
9	316	1836	3310	2016	71	4067	143	128
10	11	3008	469	4810	3627	4537	158	49
11	326	3467	3003	2081	2468	948	155	117
12	172	930	20	2709	2590	365	139	134
13	1595	840	955	868	2543	4637	122	121
14	33	291	2705	1868	812	639	136	65
15	321	1967	2614	4450	2165	126	73	148
16	1448	4265	1100	314	254	1075	113	141
17	1756	3478	1747	4501	4753	1902	55	97
18	3627	4499	2408	701	987	236	63	195
19	3145	948	469	1519	3310	3245	199	162
20	2137	4471	2959	365	694	4810	123	118
21	1334	3044	2468	51	4673	20	121	114
22	2415	3242	11	78	4466	812	125	74
23	910	3467	639	379	836	316	132	137
24	2081	254	868	291	433	2614	162	79
25	321	2486	1868	1075	930	4589	70	63
26	3478	172	3504	4450	2705	1100	41	108
27	4265	846	1714	3612	2016	1610	122	91
28	4585	126	4537	4637	1071	4731	89	51
29	973	3314	4545	3008	3003	4501	104	78
30	314	2165	4753	801	1595	1836	113	103
31	2590	71	1011	2543	1756	2457	149	82
32	4470	2604	955	1796	1967	2709	69	73
33	33	1448	1660	525	2704	840	120	97
34	4067	3504	254	326	2408	2415	116	109
35	3044	316	2614	987	1868	1100	118	151
36	930	51	1610	433	694	11	121	131
37	812	1519	4673	321	3314	2137	75	106
38	846	3145	4537	4501	1836	2486	76	94
39	973	2543	365	78	2081	801	126	94
40	71	1071	4471	20	3478	4265	89	120
41	2165	172	4470	1747	1660	4499	85	63
42	2705	4810	2709	1902	126	314	77	173
43	3003	1448	955	4466	701	1334	102	155
44	1011	639	525	326	2604	3627	101	84
45	2468	4589	4753	2016	3008	840	53	88
46	236	4585	2959	868	3242	948	119	178
47	291	1756	3310	4545	379	1595	121	83
48	1075	4637	3245	1967	910	4067	60	93
49	4450	2590	2704	836	1714	1796	121	95
50	4731	2457	469	3467	3612	33	117	166
51	2415	126	20	701	846	973	176	149
52	2081	4466	1071	2408	3314	316	69	124
53	314	3504	365	11	2468	1868	100	119
54	433	3008	801	2705	1011	4585	71	75
55	2016	51	2137	2604	1756	3145	145	82
56	1100	948	2543	1334	291	4589	142	96
57	4637	3310	2614	4501	2704	1610	117	79
58	525	3242	4537	1714	4753	955	76	90
59	2457	4471	2165	1519	3044	868	73	162
60	3612	4810	987	1448	3478	321	127	29
61	71	4673	3245	78	4731	172	86	81
62	379	3627	1902	1967	33	2959	110	157
63	910	1796	1595	2486	1660	254	96	136
64	469	2709	3003	840	4499	639	140	90
65	236	1075	4470	4450	694	1836	73	105
66	836	326	1747	4265	930	4545	100	104
67	4067	812	3008	3467	2590	955	51	199
68	11	3314	20	291	1714	987	166	134
69	3478	433	4537	316	365	2415	26	141
70	4466	2016	948	1902	3504	4673	148	54
71	2614	910	1011	33	2468	3242	92	131
72	846	379	314	71	4585	469	136	149
73	1756	4450	1334	1868	3245	1610	135	91
74	4501	2705	2408	1796	1448	3044	98	72
75	78	2709	1075	836	4753	3612	65	70
76	1595	4499	4265	525	2959	4731	113	111
77	1747	2457	2704	4067	639	4589	45	75
78	1660	3003	3627	2137	930	3310	82	162
79	694	1967	2543	3467	3145	254	111	179
80	801	4545	868	126	51	172	128	156
81	2590	2604	4810	2165	973	236	114	151
82	321	1836	326	1071	840	1100	75	104
83	2081	2486	4637	4470	1519	701	59	127
84	4471	433	1595	812	836	469	67	134
85	4501	1011	4731	1868	948	4067	70	141
86	1714	3044	3008	1075	2137	3478	54	70
87	1448	4753	2415	2614	2959	4673	76	101
88	846	51	4499	3314	3467	4450	108	149
89	801	1660	2468	4537	4265	2709	104	75
90	4589	4466	2604	3245	1836	379	50	98
91	321	2705	254	4637	1334	2016	121	125
92	910	365	126	3627	71	2704	144	82
93	525	4470	973	4471	11	1100	107	109
94	694	955	987	2165	1756	2081	188	90
95	2486	1902	236	291	3003	2457	134	71
96	3612	172	639	1071	3242	3145	84	86
97	2408	78	930	314	33	868	102	206
98	1519	840	1967	2590	1747	4585	129	104
99	1796	701	316	4545	1610	3504	146	37
100	20	4810	812	326	3310	2543	89	142
101	4466	2709	2137	4637	1100	3467	98	123
102	4501	4450	4471	955	4673	254	80	127
103	836	2415	948	321	801	1756	152	88
104	3003	71	987	4470	2705	4537	167	53
105	868	3314	365	1075	639	1660	166	70
106	973	3242	4067	1448	930	469	117	156
107	316	846	2468	172	2604	2457	129	64
108	1071	78	1519	2704	4810	1011	131	59
109	1334	33	694	1595	326	4585	197	94
110	4265	2081	3145	11	2590	4589	98	143
111	1836	4731	1610	1967	3478	291	59	51
112	2543	126	525	1747	433	236	150	87
113	701	2165	1714	812	1902	51	127	99
114	379	4499	3504	2486	4753	20	68	112
115	840	1796	3245	3627	314	2614	104	116
116	1868	910	2408	3612	3008	3310	76	90
117	3044	2016	2704	2959	4545	469	76	152
118	4810	4470	3242	4265	2457	3314	54	118
119	4501	2468	1100	639	78	1967	106	96
120	2543	33	1610	1075	2415	987	133	140
121	4067	1756	11	4673	2705	868	133	124
122	3504	930	3467	2165	1334	1071	121	142
123	2486	3627	172	433	955	948	92	141
124	836	840	2081	20	2137	4537	84	120
125	1747	321	4731	3008	365	379	31	92
126	4585	3310	1902	2604	4499	3044	119	55
127	314	4589	525	3003	910	51	106	110
128	3612	126	1796	2959	326	1519	125	168
129	812	71	694	2408	973	4753	107	89
130	4545	1660	3245	236	1714	4471	64	93
131	801	2590	1868	846	254	4466	152	143
132	701	2016	3478	1595	2614	2709	102	90
133	3145	4450	291	1448	1011	316	83	102
134	4637	3044	930	1836	987	433	77	125

4 matches are predicted to be over 300 combined

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	RScore	BScore
19	3145	948	469	1519	3310	3245	199	162
51	2415	126	20	701	846	973	176	149
97	2408	78	930	314	33	868	102	206
68	11	3314	20	291	1714	987	166	134

Here are the highest scoring close matches

Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	RScore	BScore
131	801	2590	1868	846	254	4466	152	143
12	172	930	20	2709	2590	365	139	134
120	2543	33	1610	1075	2415	987	133	140
23	910	3467	639	379	836	316	132	137
121	4067	1756	11	4673	2705	868	133	124
36	930	51	1610	433	694	11	121	131

Don't like the predictions? Go out and prove them wrong

[efoote868]

Thanks, I'm hoping your predictions are wrong .

Anyone want to guess the % of correct predictions at the end? I'm going to say it'll be about 65%.

[nikeairmancurry]

I'll go about 81% correct. OPR calculations hover around that number.

[Grim Tuesday]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

I'll go about 81% correct. OPR calculations hover around that number.

OPR predictions are generally 81% correct within an event. With the number of improvements teams make between the regional and championship, I think it will sway close matches significantly.

Also, if 3314 seeds first, prepare yourselves for some scorched earth.

[EricDrost]

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday

Also, if 3314 seeds first, prepare yourselves for some scorched earth.

I'd expect scorching from any team (barring maybe 868 and 126) that seeds first and doesn't have a >3 disc auton.

[Link07]

Originally Posted by EricDrost

I'd expect scorching from any team (barring maybe 868 and 126) that seeds first and doesn't have a >3 disc auton.

Inb4 11 and 3314 actually DO go 8-0

[EricDrost]

Originally Posted by Link07

Inb4 11 and 3314 actually DO go 8-0

I highly doubt either of us will go 8-0. I see 33 and 469 having the best chance at 1st seed.

[JohnSchneider]

Originally Posted by EricDrost

I'd expect scorching from any team (barring maybe 868 and 126) that seeds first and doesn't have a >3 disc auton.

Scorching would make this division VERY interesting.