Archimedes 2013!!!

[nikeairmancurry]

I'll go about 81% correct. OPR calculations hover around that number.

[Grim Tuesday]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

I'll go about 81% correct. OPR calculations hover around that number.

OPR predictions are generally 81% correct within an event. With the number of improvements teams make between the regional and championship, I think it will sway close matches significantly.

Also, if 3314 seeds first, prepare yourselves for some scorched earth.

[EricDrost]

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday

Also, if 3314 seeds first, prepare yourselves for some scorched earth.

I'd expect scorching from any team (barring maybe 868 and 126) that seeds first and doesn't have a >3 disc auton.

[Link07]

Originally Posted by EricDrost

I'd expect scorching from any team (barring maybe 868 and 126) that seeds first and doesn't have a >3 disc auton.

Inb4 11 and 3314 actually DO go 8-0

[EricDrost]

Originally Posted by Link07

Inb4 11 and 3314 actually DO go 8-0

I highly doubt either of us will go 8-0. I see 33 and 469 having the best chance at 1st seed.

[JohnSchneider]

Originally Posted by EricDrost

I'd expect scorching from any team (barring maybe 868 and 126) that seeds first and doesn't have a >3 disc auton.

Scorching would make this division VERY interesting.

[M.O'Reilly]

Unfortunately, I think performance this year depends greatly on match schedule (more so than years past).

3314 is a great shooter. The won the Bridgewater district as the #1 seed, but then they were on the outside of elims at MARC for who knows what reason. I can't explain that, except for poor luck of the draw at MARC.

Drawing from MARC, alliances that succeeded in elims did not focus on defense whatsoever. The only dedicated defenders were to block full court shooters, and it was extremely effective. I think an FCS that can't get under the pyramid even making elims is far fetched. It's too easy to stop.

If I had a 3 disc autonomous mode, I wouldn't trade it to stop the opposing alliance from getting an extra two discs on the center line. Perhaps after you shoot, but certainly not before.

[Tom Ore]

A journalism student traveled with our team to the 10,000 Lakes regional. Here is the video she made.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYHmgSzLcHU

[Kevin Leonard]

This division just got WAY less predictable. I think if a non-favorite team seeds first (i.e. 3314 or 11 like the spreadsheet says) the field becomes wide open for some very interesting alliance selections. I expect multiple declines and potentially some powerful low seed alliances.

[Link07]

Originally Posted by M.O'Reilly

Unfortunately, I think performance this year depends greatly on match schedule (more so than years past).

3314 is a great shooter. The won the Bridgewater district as the #1 seed, but then they were on the outside of elims at MARC for who knows what reason. I can't explain that, except for poor luck of the draw at MARC.

Not to take anything away from them(they did almost win two events), but 3314 also had a fairly easy schedule at Bridgewater, IIRC.

[M.O'Reilly]

Originally Posted by Link07

Not to take anything away from them(they did almost win two events), but 3314 also had a fairly easy schedule at Bridgewater, IIRC.

That may be, but I think it speaks volumes about the style of game this year. With 100 teams and 8 matches it's going to be a dog fight to get in the top8, and EVERY autonomous shot matters. The 6-7 fantastic robots you see in this division may not have their fate in their own hands; that's up to the match schedule gods.

[k20002222]

Originally Posted by M.O'Reilly

Unfortunately, I think performance this year depends greatly on match schedule (more so than years past).

3314 is a great shooter. The won the Bridgewater district as the #1 seed, but then they were on the outside of elims at MARC for who knows what reason. I can't explain that, except for poor luck of the draw at MARC.

Drawing from MARC, alliances that succeeded in elims did not focus on defense whatsoever. The only dedicated defenders were to block full court shooters, and it was extremely effective. I think an FCS that can't get under the pyramid even making elims is far fetched. It's too easy to stop.

If I had a 3 disc autonomous mode, I wouldn't trade it to stop the opposing alliance from getting an extra two discs on the center line. Perhaps after you shoot, but certainly not before.

...

[Chris Hibner]

Originally Posted by Grim Tuesday

OPR predictions are generally 81% correct within an event. With the number of improvements teams make between the regional and championship, I think it will sway close matches significantly.

Using OPR from each team's best district event, OPR predictions were 82.4% accurate for MSC.

I think it will probably be right around 80% for CMP as well.

[efoote868]

Originally Posted by nikeairmancurry

I'll go about 81% correct. OPR calculations hover around that number.

As pointed out earlier that's within an event, using all match data to recalculate and fit what would've happened if OPR was 100% accurate.

Also, I would like to point out that OPR predictions using Friday's match data to predict Saturday performance at Crossroads was 16 for 24 (or 25 if you count ties being wrong), and Crossroads had a significantly higher average OPR than most other regional competitions, similar to what Archimedes is predicted to have.