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  #106   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 13:32
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.

Everything appears to match MechEng83's data.

Code:
Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	AP	TP	CP
1	1741	8	0	0	8	16	297	463	171
2	1538	8	0	0	8	16	280	422	148
3	2054	7	1	0	8	14	316	452	159
4	1985	7	1	0	8	14	260	377	181
5	128	7	1	0	8	14	259	508	137
6	1676	7	1	0	8	14	255	476	151
7	180	7	1	0	8	14	243	438	169
8	2439	7	1	0	8	14	214	440	130
9	2252	7	1	0	8	14	207	400	155
10	195	7	1	0	8	14	203	419	165
11	829	7	1	0	8	14	198	388	137
12	2826	6	2	0	8	12	272	481	115
13	68	6	2	0	8	12	258	450	104
14	3997	6	2	0	8	12	254	337	176
15	2612	6	2	0	8	12	252	387	211
16	225	6	2	0	8	12	251	599	136
17	3931	6	2	0	8	12	231	419	148
18	1640	6	2	0	8	12	222	451	91
19	131	6	2	0	8	12	214	412	162
20	1569	6	2	0	8	12	209	430	108
21	1730	6	2	0	8	12	199	284	153
22	79	6	2	0	8	12	192	315	155
23	1986	5	3	0	8	10	340	427	183
24	3130	5	3	0	8	10	297	323	190
25	1718	5	3	0	8	10	242	499	159
26	175	5	3	0	8	10	234	316	205
27	3137	5	3	0	8	10	222	291	156
28	3802	5	3	0	8	10	216	440	150
29	217	5	3	0	8	10	215	460	120
30	2471	5	3	0	8	10	214	393	154
31	341	5	3	0	8	10	210	335	167
32	3880	5	3	0	8	10	205	415	90
33	2783	5	3	0	8	10	204	365	87
34	1208	5	3	0	8	10	198	339	172
35	2052	5	3	0	8	10	196	393	143
36	2389	5	3	0	8	10	190	170	120
37	1646	5	3	0	8	10	188	257	98
38	4476	5	3	0	8	10	185	345	148
39	303	5	3	0	8	10	183	481	123
40	4656	5	3	0	8	10	173	285	159
41	1311	5	3	0	8	10	166	256	180
42	3339	5	3	0	8	10	162	336	226
43	2194	4	4	0	8	8	239	281	117
44	141	4	4	0	8	8	219	219	157
45	4539	4	4	0	8	8	214	265	150
46	4505	4	4	0	8	8	205	229	152
47	4276	4	4	0	8	8	188	314	115
48	3244	4	4	0	8	8	181	263	160
49	1511	4	4	0	8	8	176	337	145
50	2851	4	4	0	8	8	175	214	170
51	2974	4	4	0	8	8	173	438	161
52	25	4	4	0	8	8	172	288	170
53	155	4	4	0	8	8	161	213	180
54	3756	4	4	0	8	8	147	241	120
55	4487	4	4	0	8	8	143	267	139
56	1523	4	4	0	8	8	125	372	169
57	4451	4	4	0	8	8	122	267	303
58	190	4	4	0	8	8	114	229	207
59	3476	3	5	0	8	6	228	407	105
60	1671	3	5	0	8	6	228	309	98
61	2619	3	5	0	8	6	215	399	145
62	1781	3	5	0	8	6	213	270	99
63	492	3	5	0	8	6	200	229	196
64	503	3	5	0	8	6	197	279	152
65	3280	3	5	0	8	6	194	246	62
66	2283	3	5	0	8	6	192	265	94
67	1305	3	5	0	8	6	191	233	153
68	4629	3	5	0	8	6	188	289	97
69	4586	3	5	0	8	6	188	244	112
70	1899	3	5	0	8	6	186	395	137
71	191	3	5	0	8	6	186	381	109
72	3574	3	5	0	8	6	170	249	93
73	1885	3	5	0	8	6	157	276	121
74	3171	3	5	0	8	6	151	228	170
75	93	3	5	0	8	6	150	244	108
76	1410	3	5	0	8	6	148	338	80
77	1111	3	5	0	8	6	115	227	81
78	4519	2	6	0	8	4	201	294	150
79	2352	2	6	0	8	4	165	219	94
80	88	2	6	0	8	4	154	272	133
81	1515	2	6	0	8	4	140	248	95
82	771	2	6	0	8	4	130	328	141
83	1251	2	6	0	8	4	128	316	113
84	537	2	6	0	8	4	119	239	101
85	353	2	6	0	8	4	108	294	139
86	2080	2	6	0	8	4	106	225	120
87	2789	2	6	0	8	4	102	203	116
88	2655	2	6	0	8	4	69	242	218
89	4713	2	6	0	8	4	65	179	61
90	122	1	7	0	8	2	190	173	101
91	296	1	7	0	8	2	161	204	125
92	116	1	7	0	8	2	149	223	83
93	1739	1	7	0	8	2	119	176	92
94	604	1	7	0	8	2	110	203	123
95	4828	1	7	0	8	2	108	313	186
96	4531	1	7	0	8	2	103	184	142
97	4666	1	7	0	8	2	89	264	97
98	2386	1	7	0	8	2	80	189	98
99	4652	1	7	0	8	2	61	172	68
100	4572	0	8	0	8	0	96	141	120
Here are the results from the individual matches

Code:
Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	RScore	BScore
1	4828	1511	4666	341	3756	180	40	130
2	191	1640	2386	2252	296	195	98	120
3	1515	3171	175	1741	2439	1538	72	152
4	2194	1781	492	155	93	2052	73	99
5	3997	1739	116	4451	2655	2612	92	110
6	3574	2789	537	3880	1986	2826	66	165
7	3476	3280	217	4519	503	4476	110	107
8	4713	1523	604	1671	2389	68	75	78
9	3802	1410	4276	1718	4656	2974	108	117
10	1251	4586	141	1305	3339	1730	76	89
11	1985	2054	829	3137	25	122	148	72
12	2851	1311	4539	4572	2352	3244	78	46
13	1885	353	4531	2471	2283	1208	76	108
14	1569	190	303	1111	4652	79	105	63
15	4487	4629	1646	2080	4505	771	42	60
16	3931	3130	131	1899	2619	88	129	106
17	1676	225	4666	128	2783	1781	136	126
18	1730	4276	2439	503	604	492	90	84
19	1640	2389	1986	2052	341	1305	133	128
20	3171	2974	191	3997	1311	4476	81	90
21	4828	3339	4656	2352	3280	829	63	95
22	4531	4572	190	3802	1739	2789	26	69
23	1523	4451	2386	180	771	1885	129	114
24	2471	1646	1410	1511	25	2612	112	100
25	122	88	303	3756	537	2851	70	91
26	4505	1718	3574	217	2252	3244	105	109
27	1111	1251	225	1538	3137	155	104	125
28	4652	93	116	3880	68	2619	61	130
29	141	79	195	2655	353	2080	154	53
30	1671	2194	1208	175	128	3130	91	132
31	1515	4713	1676	1985	1899	1569	83	118
32	131	2783	4629	3476	2283	4586	91	65
33	2826	296	4487	4539	3931	2054	80	127
34	1741	3997	25	4519	4572	1718	117	85
35	4505	3137	503	2974	2386	537	110	84
36	492	771	191	4652	2352	341	69	74
37	2789	1311	2439	1646	122	1305	87	51
38	1111	116	604	829	2471	88	74	108
39	4276	1885	2252	1515	3280	1739	102	51
40	180	4656	3244	141	93	190	99	81
41	1410	2619	2080	1986	4586	1676	112	154
42	217	195	1511	303	128	3931	120	146
43	2194	4539	1538	2283	4451	4828	96	74
44	3574	3171	1781	1640	353	131	69	124
45	2655	2389	155	1208	1985	4487	40	112
46	1671	4476	1899	296	1730	2851	88	76
47	2783	2826	68	2052	4519	4531	132	103
48	3802	225	1523	2054	3130	4629	163	112
49	3756	175	79	4713	3880	1251	121	57
50	3339	1741	2612	3476	4666	1569	129	92
51	1739	2283	2386	2080	303	829	39	106
52	2252	1305	88	4656	353	3137	99	85
53	155	4652	3244	3997	128	2439	45	132
54	3931	1646	604	537	1538	1885	74	122
55	122	4572	503	2194	2389	3574	46	47
56	2974	131	116	225	4539	217	132	124
57	191	93	1671	79	4487	2783	69	102
58	1985	1730	2612	3130	1781	3280	122	91
59	4519	190	195	2851	4713	4276	116	53
60	2352	3756	4629	3171	1676	4531	74	87
61	1410	3880	1569	1311	2052	4828	123	104
62	1208	341	25	68	1515	4586	122	81
63	141	4505	2619	1523	4666	2789	111	84
64	180	1718	175	3339	296	1986	162	116
65	492	4451	1899	2054	1511	1741	110	135
66	771	1640	4476	3802	2471	1251	88	109
67	1111	2826	2439	3476	2655	2974	101	95
68	2851	2194	1739	4656	1985	3171	65	66
69	3931	4276	2052	2386	3756	4652	120	53
70	604	303	353	191	3244	1410	94	103
71	131	1885	829	4666	4487	190	127	47
72	3339	1208	503	195	1676	93	128	143
73	2783	3280	3880	1523	3997	1646	85	109
74	79	296	2283	1305	1511	1515	65	70
75	2789	3476	68	225	771	1718	121	146
76	4713	141	128	4531	492	3137	97	67
77	2655	2252	341	1899	537	4572	93	61
78	2389	3130	180	4539	2471	2080	104	80
79	4629	4519	122	1640	1111	1730	46	88
80	4451	4586	175	88	3574	1569	99	76
81	1741	3802	1781	2619	4828	2826	125	112
82	1671	1986	155	2054	217	1311	125	139
83	25	1538	4476	2352	116	4505	118	102
84	1251	128	2052	2612	604	3171	137	82
85	1305	3476	3244	829	2194	1899	102	104
86	4656	2783	341	4713	2080	296	89	25
87	3137	79	3280	4666	1410	771	104	75
88	4539	4519	88	3880	3339	191	66	93
89	4652	537	1208	1741	225	1640	80	161
90	1730	195	2471	3574	1523	2974	141	118
91	492	1986	3130	25	2655	2386	133	58
92	503	2283	2352	3931	3802	1569	90	117
93	1676	217	4828	190	3997	175	125	99
94	1511	1538	68	141	122	4487	130	69
95	4476	2612	2054	2789	2389	93	148	45
96	2619	4531	4276	1985	303	180	77	145
97	155	4451	2851	131	1646	2252	109	112
98	4572	1885	1251	2439	1781	4629	50	85
99	1311	4505	1111	4586	1739	353	65	50
100	3756	116	1515	1718	2826	1671	95	128
101	4666	1899	2080	3574	1208	3997	66	112
102	771	2783	4828	141	3171	503	70	102
103	4713	2052	829	1730	2789	4539	97	66
104	217	3802	191	2612	122	180	112	120
105	3280	88	296	2389	492	1538	46	88
106	2619	2974	190	2252	1511	604	103	82
107	3931	4505	225	4519	175	4656	134	93
108	1646	1781	4586	4652	4531	1671	60	33
109	1985	4572	131	3756	1523	3339	80	115
110	3880	128	2054	1111	2352	1885	160	82
111	1311	303	93	3476	1515	1640	92	115
112	2851	2283	1741	1251	1410	2655	91	82
113	2826	3130	1676	4476	3244	1739	148	56
114	4451	2471	341	2439	1718	79	135	148
115	537	25	1305	155	4629	195	88	95
116	68	1569	3137	2194	1986	4276	125	119
117	4487	353	3339	116	2386	4713	75	62
118	190	1208	4539	122	4505	1781	90	67
119	2052	3997	1511	1671	131	3802	110	107
120	492	1646	4656	4572	1111	4666	49	10
121	3476	175	1985	1410	1885	4652	128	86
122	2471	3880	3171	225	303	2252	93	162
123	1739	296	3756	604	3574	155	53	64
124	1718	4629	1899	191	1538	503	112	145
125	3244	4519	1986	2974	1251	1515	133	83
126	537	2080	4531	93	4451	1730	55	97
127	353	829	3931	68	1676	2612	114	169
128	2789	2352	88	2783	2194	1741	73	100
129	2386	2389	4586	2851	79	2826	38	133
130	2439	2619	771	25	1569	217	102	109
131	4487	195	3137	341	3130	1311	120	101
132	2655	4828	1523	128	4476	4276	85	101
133	2283	1640	2054	141	3280	116	119	104
134	180	2974	4652	1305	4505	492	100	74
4 matches are predicted to be over 270 combined
Code:
Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	RScore	BScore
48	3802	225	1523	2054	3130	4629	163	112
64	180	1718	175	3339	296	1986	162	116
72	3339	1208	503	195	1676	93	128	143
114	4451	2471	341	2439	1718	79	135	148
127	353	829	3931	68	1676	2612	114	169
Here are the highest scoring close matches
Code:
Match	Red 1	Red 2	Red 3	Blue 1	Blue 2	Blue 3	RScore	BScore
17	1676	225	4666	128	2783	1781	136	126
19	1640	2389	1986	2052	341	1305	133	128
56	2974	131	116	225	4539	217	132	124
116	68	1569	3137	2194	1986	4276	125	119
104	217	3802	191	2612	122	180	112	120
9	3802	1410	4276	1718	4656	2974	108	117
97	155	4451	2851	131	1646	2252	109	112
Don't like the predictions? Go out and prove them wrong
  #107   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 13:34
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by MechEng83 View Post
Using the Max OPR Data and the preliminary match schedule that FIRST has published, I did a little prediction spreadsheet.

If a match is less than 10 pts in differential, I have highlighted the predicted scores in yellow. Otherwise, the winning alliance score is highlighted.
Excellent data, thank you!
  #108   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 13:44
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Wait the match lists came out?
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  #109   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 13:47
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

I'm surprised Shaun, you're usually more on top of this...

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=116335
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  #110   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 13:48
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by nuggetsyl View Post
Wait the match lists came out?
PRELIMINARY: http://www.usfirst.org/sites/default...ual_prelim.pdf

It was released in today's first FRC Blog post: http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...atch-schedules
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  #111   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 13:54
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post

Code:
Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	AP	TP	CP

23	1986	5	3	0	8	10	340	427	183
Don't like the predictions? Go out and prove them wrong
You play the hand your dealt.
At least I'm predicted to lead the Division in Autonomous. If that prediction holds true then every victory we steal moves us to the head of the next win/loss category. Might make some noise here yet.
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  #112   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 14:05
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by jee7s View Post
I'm surprised Shaun, you're usually more on top of this...

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=116335
Its called burried at work . I am happy to have a few days to see who and how I am going to D up some of these teams. I have an Idea that will have teams slapping their heads why did I not think of that.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 15:32
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.

Everything appears to match MechEng83's data.
Joe -
Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events.

-dave


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Unread 22-04-2013, 15:47
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).

It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 15:51
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by dlavery View Post
Joe -
Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events.

-dave


.
Dave,

While I can't speak specifically to Joe's calculations, they match up with mine. Even using MaxOPR of 42.6 (which I see for 116 was a vast improvement from your first regional) the predicted win-loss is 1-7. With so few matches and such a large field of teams, I think that luck in schedule will be more of a factor than performance in seeding.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 15:54
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by JesseK View Post
Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).

It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes.
Are you suggesting generating a series of random match schedules and then doing the seeding predictions based on that? I get the feeling that this will end up collapsing to just the OPR rank list with enough runs.

Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval.
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Last edited by MechEng83 : 22-04-2013 at 16:09.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 16:16
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by MechEng83 View Post
Are you suggesting generating a series of random match schedules and then doing the seeding predictions based on that? I get the feeling that this will end up collapsing to just the OPR rank list with enough runs.

Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval.
I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.

Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 17:34
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by MikeE View Post
I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.
Correct; given a specific schedule (such as the preliminary one or the one we'll receive Wed/Thurs), the question is more about the point spread across the matches a given team (e.g. 1885) is in and the potential to change the predicted outcome. If a team knows their own potential increase (i.e. we know we can now hit 4 cycles in a match instead of 1-2) due to pre-champ tweaking, then it can be used as motivation team-wide for each student to perform better. Or it can be used to manage expectations if a team hasn't done anything to improve their bot.

Such simulations can also be used as motivation in the decision making process -- do we keep practicing what we're doing, or do we try a different approach for this match? How would that decision change if we have 3 hours of consecutive pit time prior to that large-spread match vs. if we only have 30 minutes? If the point spread is large, with little predicted chance for us to win, we may take more risks for those matches.

Simulations may be more accurate for prediction than bean-count scouting early on in a schedule. Yet once we've hit everyone's 3rd or 4th match, I'd much rather have the disc-by-disc replay than a regression stat with few data points. Behavioral analysis also helps.
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Last edited by JesseK : 22-04-2013 at 17:37.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 17:42
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by MikeE View Post
I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.

Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules.
When you only play 8 matches, schedule is king in determining placement. Our schedule has us placed 25 in the field, and we play against 1986, 341 and 1538 but never play with them. That said, we play with some top-notch teams too, and the our final record is up to how we play: 3 of the matches are within 10 points of OPR, which makes them too close to call.

It's going to be exciting!

Would simulating with a Monte-Carlo over a large number of schedules be nearly identical to relying on OPR for those same schedules?

Last edited by Tom Line : 22-04-2013 at 19:42.
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Unread 22-04-2013, 18:23
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

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Originally Posted by dlavery View Post
Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events.
I used 42.6, from Washington DC, which puts 116 at 31st in the division. The OPR from North Carolina was 1.1. Unfortunately, it appears that 116 has a very tough schedule which is the reason for the 1-7 finish. Those values are for calculating who will win a match.

For the values used in the calculating the Auto, Teleop, and Climb in the rankings, I used Ed Law's world ranking, because that was the only convenient place to get those values. Because of 116's performance in North Carolina, those values are significantly lower then the best OPR. 116's best OPR is comprised of 11.2 Auto 8.8 Climb 23.1 Teleop. Their World OPR is 12.3 Auto, 7 climb, and 3 Teleop. Since Teleop was where the major discrepancy is, and it is the last tiebreaker, there is little difference in 116's ranking whether best or world OPRs are used, although it could affect other teams.

If someone had a convenient list of best OPR event broken out by Auto, Climb, and Teleop, I would have used that.

Last edited by Joe Ross : 22-04-2013 at 18:35.
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