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#106
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
I used the preliminary match schedules to simulate the matches using OPR and then calculate the standings. I used each team's best OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating their contribution to a match. I also used each team's world Auto, Teleop, and Climb OPR from Ed Law's spreadsheet for calculating the rest of the standings.
Everything appears to match MechEng83's data. Code:
Rank Team Wins Losses Ties Matches QP AP TP CP 1 1741 8 0 0 8 16 297 463 171 2 1538 8 0 0 8 16 280 422 148 3 2054 7 1 0 8 14 316 452 159 4 1985 7 1 0 8 14 260 377 181 5 128 7 1 0 8 14 259 508 137 6 1676 7 1 0 8 14 255 476 151 7 180 7 1 0 8 14 243 438 169 8 2439 7 1 0 8 14 214 440 130 9 2252 7 1 0 8 14 207 400 155 10 195 7 1 0 8 14 203 419 165 11 829 7 1 0 8 14 198 388 137 12 2826 6 2 0 8 12 272 481 115 13 68 6 2 0 8 12 258 450 104 14 3997 6 2 0 8 12 254 337 176 15 2612 6 2 0 8 12 252 387 211 16 225 6 2 0 8 12 251 599 136 17 3931 6 2 0 8 12 231 419 148 18 1640 6 2 0 8 12 222 451 91 19 131 6 2 0 8 12 214 412 162 20 1569 6 2 0 8 12 209 430 108 21 1730 6 2 0 8 12 199 284 153 22 79 6 2 0 8 12 192 315 155 23 1986 5 3 0 8 10 340 427 183 24 3130 5 3 0 8 10 297 323 190 25 1718 5 3 0 8 10 242 499 159 26 175 5 3 0 8 10 234 316 205 27 3137 5 3 0 8 10 222 291 156 28 3802 5 3 0 8 10 216 440 150 29 217 5 3 0 8 10 215 460 120 30 2471 5 3 0 8 10 214 393 154 31 341 5 3 0 8 10 210 335 167 32 3880 5 3 0 8 10 205 415 90 33 2783 5 3 0 8 10 204 365 87 34 1208 5 3 0 8 10 198 339 172 35 2052 5 3 0 8 10 196 393 143 36 2389 5 3 0 8 10 190 170 120 37 1646 5 3 0 8 10 188 257 98 38 4476 5 3 0 8 10 185 345 148 39 303 5 3 0 8 10 183 481 123 40 4656 5 3 0 8 10 173 285 159 41 1311 5 3 0 8 10 166 256 180 42 3339 5 3 0 8 10 162 336 226 43 2194 4 4 0 8 8 239 281 117 44 141 4 4 0 8 8 219 219 157 45 4539 4 4 0 8 8 214 265 150 46 4505 4 4 0 8 8 205 229 152 47 4276 4 4 0 8 8 188 314 115 48 3244 4 4 0 8 8 181 263 160 49 1511 4 4 0 8 8 176 337 145 50 2851 4 4 0 8 8 175 214 170 51 2974 4 4 0 8 8 173 438 161 52 25 4 4 0 8 8 172 288 170 53 155 4 4 0 8 8 161 213 180 54 3756 4 4 0 8 8 147 241 120 55 4487 4 4 0 8 8 143 267 139 56 1523 4 4 0 8 8 125 372 169 57 4451 4 4 0 8 8 122 267 303 58 190 4 4 0 8 8 114 229 207 59 3476 3 5 0 8 6 228 407 105 60 1671 3 5 0 8 6 228 309 98 61 2619 3 5 0 8 6 215 399 145 62 1781 3 5 0 8 6 213 270 99 63 492 3 5 0 8 6 200 229 196 64 503 3 5 0 8 6 197 279 152 65 3280 3 5 0 8 6 194 246 62 66 2283 3 5 0 8 6 192 265 94 67 1305 3 5 0 8 6 191 233 153 68 4629 3 5 0 8 6 188 289 97 69 4586 3 5 0 8 6 188 244 112 70 1899 3 5 0 8 6 186 395 137 71 191 3 5 0 8 6 186 381 109 72 3574 3 5 0 8 6 170 249 93 73 1885 3 5 0 8 6 157 276 121 74 3171 3 5 0 8 6 151 228 170 75 93 3 5 0 8 6 150 244 108 76 1410 3 5 0 8 6 148 338 80 77 1111 3 5 0 8 6 115 227 81 78 4519 2 6 0 8 4 201 294 150 79 2352 2 6 0 8 4 165 219 94 80 88 2 6 0 8 4 154 272 133 81 1515 2 6 0 8 4 140 248 95 82 771 2 6 0 8 4 130 328 141 83 1251 2 6 0 8 4 128 316 113 84 537 2 6 0 8 4 119 239 101 85 353 2 6 0 8 4 108 294 139 86 2080 2 6 0 8 4 106 225 120 87 2789 2 6 0 8 4 102 203 116 88 2655 2 6 0 8 4 69 242 218 89 4713 2 6 0 8 4 65 179 61 90 122 1 7 0 8 2 190 173 101 91 296 1 7 0 8 2 161 204 125 92 116 1 7 0 8 2 149 223 83 93 1739 1 7 0 8 2 119 176 92 94 604 1 7 0 8 2 110 203 123 95 4828 1 7 0 8 2 108 313 186 96 4531 1 7 0 8 2 103 184 142 97 4666 1 7 0 8 2 89 264 97 98 2386 1 7 0 8 2 80 189 98 99 4652 1 7 0 8 2 61 172 68 100 4572 0 8 0 8 0 96 141 120 Code:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore 1 4828 1511 4666 341 3756 180 40 130 2 191 1640 2386 2252 296 195 98 120 3 1515 3171 175 1741 2439 1538 72 152 4 2194 1781 492 155 93 2052 73 99 5 3997 1739 116 4451 2655 2612 92 110 6 3574 2789 537 3880 1986 2826 66 165 7 3476 3280 217 4519 503 4476 110 107 8 4713 1523 604 1671 2389 68 75 78 9 3802 1410 4276 1718 4656 2974 108 117 10 1251 4586 141 1305 3339 1730 76 89 11 1985 2054 829 3137 25 122 148 72 12 2851 1311 4539 4572 2352 3244 78 46 13 1885 353 4531 2471 2283 1208 76 108 14 1569 190 303 1111 4652 79 105 63 15 4487 4629 1646 2080 4505 771 42 60 16 3931 3130 131 1899 2619 88 129 106 17 1676 225 4666 128 2783 1781 136 126 18 1730 4276 2439 503 604 492 90 84 19 1640 2389 1986 2052 341 1305 133 128 20 3171 2974 191 3997 1311 4476 81 90 21 4828 3339 4656 2352 3280 829 63 95 22 4531 4572 190 3802 1739 2789 26 69 23 1523 4451 2386 180 771 1885 129 114 24 2471 1646 1410 1511 25 2612 112 100 25 122 88 303 3756 537 2851 70 91 26 4505 1718 3574 217 2252 3244 105 109 27 1111 1251 225 1538 3137 155 104 125 28 4652 93 116 3880 68 2619 61 130 29 141 79 195 2655 353 2080 154 53 30 1671 2194 1208 175 128 3130 91 132 31 1515 4713 1676 1985 1899 1569 83 118 32 131 2783 4629 3476 2283 4586 91 65 33 2826 296 4487 4539 3931 2054 80 127 34 1741 3997 25 4519 4572 1718 117 85 35 4505 3137 503 2974 2386 537 110 84 36 492 771 191 4652 2352 341 69 74 37 2789 1311 2439 1646 122 1305 87 51 38 1111 116 604 829 2471 88 74 108 39 4276 1885 2252 1515 3280 1739 102 51 40 180 4656 3244 141 93 190 99 81 41 1410 2619 2080 1986 4586 1676 112 154 42 217 195 1511 303 128 3931 120 146 43 2194 4539 1538 2283 4451 4828 96 74 44 3574 3171 1781 1640 353 131 69 124 45 2655 2389 155 1208 1985 4487 40 112 46 1671 4476 1899 296 1730 2851 88 76 47 2783 2826 68 2052 4519 4531 132 103 48 3802 225 1523 2054 3130 4629 163 112 49 3756 175 79 4713 3880 1251 121 57 50 3339 1741 2612 3476 4666 1569 129 92 51 1739 2283 2386 2080 303 829 39 106 52 2252 1305 88 4656 353 3137 99 85 53 155 4652 3244 3997 128 2439 45 132 54 3931 1646 604 537 1538 1885 74 122 55 122 4572 503 2194 2389 3574 46 47 56 2974 131 116 225 4539 217 132 124 57 191 93 1671 79 4487 2783 69 102 58 1985 1730 2612 3130 1781 3280 122 91 59 4519 190 195 2851 4713 4276 116 53 60 2352 3756 4629 3171 1676 4531 74 87 61 1410 3880 1569 1311 2052 4828 123 104 62 1208 341 25 68 1515 4586 122 81 63 141 4505 2619 1523 4666 2789 111 84 64 180 1718 175 3339 296 1986 162 116 65 492 4451 1899 2054 1511 1741 110 135 66 771 1640 4476 3802 2471 1251 88 109 67 1111 2826 2439 3476 2655 2974 101 95 68 2851 2194 1739 4656 1985 3171 65 66 69 3931 4276 2052 2386 3756 4652 120 53 70 604 303 353 191 3244 1410 94 103 71 131 1885 829 4666 4487 190 127 47 72 3339 1208 503 195 1676 93 128 143 73 2783 3280 3880 1523 3997 1646 85 109 74 79 296 2283 1305 1511 1515 65 70 75 2789 3476 68 225 771 1718 121 146 76 4713 141 128 4531 492 3137 97 67 77 2655 2252 341 1899 537 4572 93 61 78 2389 3130 180 4539 2471 2080 104 80 79 4629 4519 122 1640 1111 1730 46 88 80 4451 4586 175 88 3574 1569 99 76 81 1741 3802 1781 2619 4828 2826 125 112 82 1671 1986 155 2054 217 1311 125 139 83 25 1538 4476 2352 116 4505 118 102 84 1251 128 2052 2612 604 3171 137 82 85 1305 3476 3244 829 2194 1899 102 104 86 4656 2783 341 4713 2080 296 89 25 87 3137 79 3280 4666 1410 771 104 75 88 4539 4519 88 3880 3339 191 66 93 89 4652 537 1208 1741 225 1640 80 161 90 1730 195 2471 3574 1523 2974 141 118 91 492 1986 3130 25 2655 2386 133 58 92 503 2283 2352 3931 3802 1569 90 117 93 1676 217 4828 190 3997 175 125 99 94 1511 1538 68 141 122 4487 130 69 95 4476 2612 2054 2789 2389 93 148 45 96 2619 4531 4276 1985 303 180 77 145 97 155 4451 2851 131 1646 2252 109 112 98 4572 1885 1251 2439 1781 4629 50 85 99 1311 4505 1111 4586 1739 353 65 50 100 3756 116 1515 1718 2826 1671 95 128 101 4666 1899 2080 3574 1208 3997 66 112 102 771 2783 4828 141 3171 503 70 102 103 4713 2052 829 1730 2789 4539 97 66 104 217 3802 191 2612 122 180 112 120 105 3280 88 296 2389 492 1538 46 88 106 2619 2974 190 2252 1511 604 103 82 107 3931 4505 225 4519 175 4656 134 93 108 1646 1781 4586 4652 4531 1671 60 33 109 1985 4572 131 3756 1523 3339 80 115 110 3880 128 2054 1111 2352 1885 160 82 111 1311 303 93 3476 1515 1640 92 115 112 2851 2283 1741 1251 1410 2655 91 82 113 2826 3130 1676 4476 3244 1739 148 56 114 4451 2471 341 2439 1718 79 135 148 115 537 25 1305 155 4629 195 88 95 116 68 1569 3137 2194 1986 4276 125 119 117 4487 353 3339 116 2386 4713 75 62 118 190 1208 4539 122 4505 1781 90 67 119 2052 3997 1511 1671 131 3802 110 107 120 492 1646 4656 4572 1111 4666 49 10 121 3476 175 1985 1410 1885 4652 128 86 122 2471 3880 3171 225 303 2252 93 162 123 1739 296 3756 604 3574 155 53 64 124 1718 4629 1899 191 1538 503 112 145 125 3244 4519 1986 2974 1251 1515 133 83 126 537 2080 4531 93 4451 1730 55 97 127 353 829 3931 68 1676 2612 114 169 128 2789 2352 88 2783 2194 1741 73 100 129 2386 2389 4586 2851 79 2826 38 133 130 2439 2619 771 25 1569 217 102 109 131 4487 195 3137 341 3130 1311 120 101 132 2655 4828 1523 128 4476 4276 85 101 133 2283 1640 2054 141 3280 116 119 104 134 180 2974 4652 1305 4505 492 100 74 Code:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore 48 3802 225 1523 2054 3130 4629 163 112 64 180 1718 175 3339 296 1986 162 116 72 3339 1208 503 195 1676 93 128 143 114 4451 2471 341 2439 1718 79 135 148 127 353 829 3931 68 1676 2612 114 169 Code:
Match Red 1 Red 2 Red 3 Blue 1 Blue 2 Blue 3 RScore BScore 17 1676 225 4666 128 2783 1781 136 126 19 1640 2389 1986 2052 341 1305 133 128 56 2974 131 116 225 4539 217 132 124 116 68 1569 3137 2194 1986 4276 125 119 104 217 3802 191 2612 122 180 112 120 9 3802 1410 4276 1718 4656 2974 108 117 97 155 4451 2851 131 1646 2252 109 112 ![]() |
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#107
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
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#108
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Wait the match lists came out?
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#109
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
I'm surprised Shaun, you're usually more on top of this...
http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...hreadid=116335 |
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#110
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
PRELIMINARY: http://www.usfirst.org/sites/default...ual_prelim.pdf
It was released in today's first FRC Blog post: http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...atch-schedules |
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#111
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
At least I'm predicted to lead the Division in Autonomous. If that prediction holds true then every victory we steal moves us to the head of the next win/loss category. Might make some noise here yet. ![]() |
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#112
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
. I am happy to have a few days to see who and how I am going to D up some of these teams. I have an Idea that will have teams slapping their heads why did I not think of that. |
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#113
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
Are you sure you used the highest OPR for each team, and not just the first? I know that in the case of Team 116, your table is showing the lower OPR of our two events. -dave . |
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#114
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).
It would be interesting for each team to do this on an internal basis so they can see how their efforts leading up to champs may potentially change the outcomes. |
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#115
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
While I can't speak specifically to Joe's calculations, they match up with mine. Even using MaxOPR of 42.6 (which I see for 116 was a vast improvement from your first regional) the predicted win-loss is 1-7. With so few matches and such a large field of teams, I think that luck in schedule will be more of a factor than performance in seeding. |
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#116
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
Or, are you suggesting using some statistical variation on the OPR values of each team using the current schedule? If so, what variation coefficients would you use? I think this might be a very interesting simulation, but I'm not sure what the valid variation would be. I might need to dig further into the OPR calculations to find some sort of confidence interval. Last edited by MechEng83 : 22-04-2013 at 16:09. |
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#117
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others. Your other interpretation is more interesting. With some small tweaks the OPR calculation can also be used to generate mean/variance parameters for a maximum likelihood estimate of each team's performance. That's a better basis for real Monte-Carlo simulation, but we'd still need to simulate over a large number of potential schedules. |
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#118
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
Such simulations can also be used as motivation in the decision making process -- do we keep practicing what we're doing, or do we try a different approach for this match? How would that decision change if we have 3 hours of consecutive pit time prior to that large-spread match vs. if we only have 30 minutes? If the point spread is large, with little predicted chance for us to win, we may take more risks for those matches. Simulations may be more accurate for prediction than bean-count scouting early on in a schedule. Yet once we've hit everyone's 3rd or 4th match, I'd much rather have the disc-by-disc replay than a regression stat with few data points. Behavioral analysis also helps. Last edited by JesseK : 22-04-2013 at 17:37. |
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#119
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
It's going to be exciting! Would simulating with a Monte-Carlo over a large number of schedules be nearly identical to relying on OPR for those same schedules? Last edited by Tom Line : 22-04-2013 at 19:42. |
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#120
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Quote:
For the values used in the calculating the Auto, Teleop, and Climb in the rankings, I used Ed Law's world ranking, because that was the only convenient place to get those values. Because of 116's performance in North Carolina, those values are significantly lower then the best OPR. 116's best OPR is comprised of 11.2 Auto 8.8 Climb 23.1 Teleop. Their World OPR is 12.3 Auto, 7 climb, and 3 Teleop. Since Teleop was where the major discrepancy is, and it is the last tiebreaker, there is little difference in 116's ranking whether best or world OPRs are used, although it could affect other teams. If someone had a convenient list of best OPR event broken out by Auto, Climb, and Teleop, I would have used that. Last edited by Joe Ross : 22-04-2013 at 18:35. |
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