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#121
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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#122
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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Match scores are based on Ed Law's Max OPR data for each team and Ether's world Auto/Climb/Teleop OPR data (linearly scaled to match Ed's Max OPR values). This gives 10 sets of qualification rankings, one for each of the simulated schedules. Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules: Code:
Team Rank Best Worst Top8? 25 50.2 35 74 0 68 24.7 2 43 1 79 35.1 18 63 0 88 70.2 36 96 0 93 57.5 25 81 0 116 34.8 15 62 0 122 90.4 83 100 0 128 30.2 8 51 1 131 35.8 12 71 0 141 26.8 11 55 0 155 61.0 24 91 0 175 36.8 1 77 1 180 14.4 1 33 5 190 75.0 54 92 0 191 55.3 19 93 0 195 18.8 2 47 3 217 37.9 2 69 1 225 12.3 2 30 5 296 82.0 68 98 0 303 39.3 7 69 1 341 36.3 3 100 2 353 67.9 30 91 0 492 68.0 38 95 0 503 23.0 8 60 1 537 55.6 28 71 0 604 80.7 22 96 0 771 77.5 39 97 0 829 56.1 33 85 0 1111 83.6 70 98 0 1208 42.6 5 69 1 1251 73.5 40 98 0 1305 36.9 16 80 0 1311 68.2 19 96 0 1410 30.9 1 66 1 1511 75.7 54 98 0 1515 63.7 35 94 0 1523 25.2 3 49 2 1538 8.2 2 24 6 1569 38.5 7 81 1 1640 40.5 21 74 0 1646 67.7 48 95 0 1671 56.9 16 95 0 1676 9.2 1 20 6 1718 17.7 2 38 2 1730 44.2 12 99 0 1739 74.3 35 99 0 1741 20.4 10 42 0 1781 35.1 3 64 1 1885 31.9 5 80 2 1899 33.2 9 67 0 1985 36.7 13 77 0 1986 9.8 1 56 7 2052 21.9 5 79 2 2054 9.8 1 26 5 2080 74.9 37 88 0 2194 48.9 27 71 0 2252 40.7 14 79 0 2283 81.2 49 97 0 2352 45.2 8 82 1 2386 64.2 46 93 0 2389 78.9 44 100 0 2439 41.0 22 70 0 2471 20.4 6 77 3 2612 20.7 1 44 3 2619 19.7 6 59 4 2655 90.0 61 100 0 2783 63.9 28 94 0 2789 62.2 27 94 0 2826 20.2 1 57 2 2851 35.0 2 78 1 2974 40.5 18 79 0 3130 49.7 26 78 0 3137 44.8 19 78 0 3171 83.1 55 100 0 3244 71.6 51 86 0 3280 67.4 29 96 0 3339 60.8 9 94 0 3476 22.5 4 45 3 3574 63.5 43 80 0 3756 47.9 18 81 0 3802 19.5 9 42 0 3880 44.5 8 99 1 3931 37.6 6 68 1 3997 32.0 4 60 2 4276 76.4 31 98 0 4451 51.1 13 93 0 4476 68.0 27 97 0 4487 57.6 23 85 0 4505 69.9 43 96 0 4519 44.1 4 66 1 4531 81.0 26 98 0 4539 61.0 7 90 1 4572 89.0 55 100 0 4586 75.3 47 97 0 4629 79.1 57 99 0 4652 85.8 72 99 0 4656 63.7 38 90 0 4666 87.3 57 99 0 4713 81.5 54 93 0 4828 76.8 36 100 0 Picking the most extreme examples, team 341 would rank either 3rd or last, based purely on their randomly chosen alliance partners and opponents. So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected. |
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#123
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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Of course the basic underlying assumption (every team scores exactly "OPR" points each match) is fundamentally flawed, but that doesn't dilute the importance of schedule. |
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#124
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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#125
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
Something interesting is going on. We ranged 21-74, but the actual schedule put us at 18.
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#126
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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I would expect 1986 to at the very least "make some noise here" I picked you guys with the 2nd pick in my fantasy league so I hope you pan out for me! |
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#127
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
So 1986 seeded in the top 10 7 out of 10 times, yet not even close in the prelim schedule (all OPR based and every one guaranteed to be wrong).
Man, that's a tough schedule. |
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#128
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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) or an average score of 83.25 per match. However if you add the OPR scores of each match my team has you get 872 or 109 points per match. So though I think according to OPR my teams win loss is correct, OPR contradicts the average scores used for rankings. |
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#129
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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Code:
Avg Med Mode Min Max StDev Top8 #1 1986 5.37 2 1 1 42 7.75 78 38 2054 10.54 5 3 1 62 12.31 60 12 225 12.65 10.5 15 1 61 10.78 43 6 1676 12.85 9.5 4 1 54 11.31 48 6 1538 14.09 10 2 1 49 13.13 46 7 180 15.33 12.5 8 1 49 12.61 40 5 195 19.67 17.5 8 1 75 13.75 24 1 1718 20 14 11 1 68 16.81 31 1 128 20.52 14.5 7 1 67 16.92 29 2 1208 21.55 17.5 33 1 92 16.23 22 2 2052 22.05 19 17 1 71 14.93 21 1 2612 22.96 16 13 1 68 17.05 22 2 1523 23.46 21 21 1 71 16.11 23 1 2826 24.2 20.5 11 1 83 17.72 16 3 3476 24.64 25 15 1 65 15.60 15 2 1741 26.62 23.5 9 2 91 19.83 15 0 68 27.07 23 15 1 68 17.29 15 2 131 28.68 22 18 1 81 18.39 10 1 141 29.53 25 13 1 88 20.73 11 1 2471 29.74 25 26 2 92 21.34 17 0 2619 30.39 27 22 2 81 20.01 15 0 2252 31.27 28.5 7 1 85 20.38 15 3 1410 32.11 31 39 1 76 19.21 10 2 503 32.67 28.5 20 2 85 21.07 10 0 79 33.22 33 19 2 93 20.61 12 0 175 35.41 31.5 17 3 85 19.88 3 0 116 35.44 32 34 2 95 22.75 8 0 1899 36.02 34 27 4 84 20.26 9 0 3997 36.24 39.5 40 3 91 20.40 8 0 303 36.59 35.5 31 2 85 19.20 4 0 1640 37.38 34 16 3 93 21.47 8 0 4451 37.51 29 24 2 93 24.12 8 0 3931 37.64 37 29 3 77 19.59 8 0 829 38.26 37 45 4 84 20.03 5 0 217 38.29 34 32 2 94 23.43 12 0 341 39.27 33.5 14 2 93 22.65 8 0 1781 40.18 38.5 33 3 95 20.23 4 0 2352 40.35 40 46 1 87 20.23 5 1 3137 40.76 41.5 24 2 94 21.57 4 0 1985 40.83 41 32 5 95 20.92 5 0 1569 41.79 41.5 48 6 94 20.15 3 0 2439 43.21 41 32 6 87 21.03 5 0 2851 43.34 44 29 4 92 20.46 4 0 3130 43.95 43.5 14 2 97 22.29 3 0 2974 44.48 41 31 5 94 23.31 5 0 4519 44.79 43.5 47 1 98 22.41 3 1 1885 45.21 44.5 30 9 86 19.79 0 0 1730 45.5 46 47 5 94 20.87 2 0 2783 47.2 46 66 6 97 21.97 3 0 3802 47.29 46 46 3 92 19.40 2 0 191 47.82 48 38 2 94 22.12 2 0 3880 47.98 51.5 55 6 85 21.00 1 0 1305 48.18 48 48 4 92 21.23 4 0 3756 52.62 53.5 66 10 95 22.69 0 0 4505 57.07 62.5 64 5 97 21.81 1 0 353 57.14 57 53 4 98 24.00 1 0 25 57.25 57.5 57 13 94 20.51 0 0 4476 57.37 57 71 3 96 23.16 3 0 1311 60.18 64.5 73 10 98 21.69 0 0 155 60.21 60.5 67 13 99 19.38 0 0 3339 60.62 58 58 7 100 21.46 1 0 1671 62.32 64 62 9 99 19.12 0 0 1251 63.8 62.5 56 7 99 21.52 1 0 4656 63.85 67 54 14 100 22.13 0 0 3574 64.34 66 92 9 100 23.27 0 0 537 64.96 65 72 6 100 21.52 1 0 4276 65.05 68 86 21 99 19.78 0 0 2386 65.98 70 70 13 96 20.97 0 0 3244 66.04 68 69 19 100 20.16 0 0 2194 66.2 66 81 5 99 20.79 2 0 4487 66.48 70.5 58 15 100 22.02 0 0 1515 66.55 70 83 2 99 22.41 3 0 3280 66.84 69 70 14 100 19.59 0 0 4539 68.44 71 65 15 100 20.57 0 0 190 69.07 75.5 77 19 100 20.76 0 0 604 69.26 71 61 20 100 19.88 0 0 492 69.53 71.5 84 7 100 20.19 1 0 93 70.97 73.5 84 19 100 19.78 0 0 2789 71.15 74 74 7 100 21.84 1 0 4828 72.15 75 85 20 100 17.76 0 0 1646 72.35 78 93 24 99 19.17 0 0 771 72.73 77.5 80 19 99 19.77 0 0 2080 73.41 74.5 74 19 100 19.45 0 0 1511 73.61 76 87 10 100 19.88 0 0 1111 73.88 77 86 7 100 20.60 1 0 88 74.95 77 87 37 100 16.63 0 0 2283 75.18 80.5 92 29 100 19.86 0 0 2389 75.35 81 84 14 100 18.38 0 0 296 76.24 80 82 30 100 16.48 0 0 1739 77.2 81.5 86 23 100 15.97 0 0 4586 77.39 80.5 92 17 100 18.70 0 0 4531 77.4 82.5 86 9 99 17.65 0 0 4629 77.67 83 85 10 100 18.89 0 0 122 80.61 83 98 31 100 15.17 0 0 2655 81.98 87 95 36 100 15.45 0 0 3171 83.49 88.5 89 40 100 14.00 0 0 4666 87 91 100 35 100 13.79 0 0 4652 88.54 93.5 96 38 100 12.68 0 0 4713 90.45 95 100 26 100 12.82 0 0 4572 93.04 96 100 68 100 7.73 0 0 Code:
Avg Med Mode Min Max StDev 1986 7.01 7 7 4 8 0.93 2054 6.47 7 7 3 8 1.16 225 6.39 6 6 3 8 0.99 1676 6.36 6 7 3 8 1.12 180 6.19 6 7 4 8 1.08 1538 6.15 6 7 4 8 1.22 195 6.1 6 6 3 8 1.04 1523 5.94 6 6 3 8 1.21 1718 5.84 6 6 3 8 1.34 2052 5.82 6 6 3 8 1.19 1208 5.82 6 5 1 8 1.24 128 5.74 6 6 3 8 1.29 2612 5.47 6 6 3 8 1.27 2826 5.44 5.5 6 2 8 1.33 68 5.37 5 6 3 8 1.28 131 5.35 6 6 2 8 1.29 3476 5.32 5 6 3 8 1.16 1410 5.24 5 6 2 8 1.30 503 5.2 5 6 2 8 1.46 1741 5.17 5 6 1 8 1.35 4451 5.16 5 6 2 8 1.48 79 5.15 5 5 1 8 1.47 2471 5.08 5 6 1 8 1.44 2252 5.05 5 4 2 8 1.40 116 5.05 5 5 1 8 1.48 2619 5 5 5 2 8 1.41 303 4.91 5 4 2 8 1.24 141 4.9 5 5 1 7 1.37 217 4.81 5 5 1 8 1.56 829 4.79 5 5 2 8 1.34 3931 4.75 5 4 2 8 1.29 1899 4.74 5 4 2 7 1.31 1640 4.73 5 5 1 7 1.40 175 4.66 5 5 2 8 1.27 341 4.49 5 5 1 8 1.48 1781 4.48 4 4 1 8 1.33 2439 4.44 4 5 2 7 1.35 2352 4.44 4 4 2 8 1.30 3997 4.4 4 4 1 7 1.32 1985 4.34 4 4 1 7 1.36 3137 4.32 4 5 1 8 1.37 1569 4.3 4 4 1 7 1.28 2851 4.28 4 5 1 7 1.29 1885 4.27 4 5 2 7 1.26 2974 4.24 4 5 1 7 1.50 3880 4.24 4 4 2 7 1.36 4519 4.13 4 4 0 8 1.45 1730 4.12 4 4 1 7 1.31 2783 4.1 4 3 0 7 1.41 191 4.07 4 5 1 8 1.43 3802 4.05 4 4 1 7 1.22 3130 4.05 4 4 0 8 1.43 1305 3.96 4 4 1 7 1.36 3756 3.86 4 3 1 7 1.44 25 3.81 4 4 1 6 1.27 353 3.77 4 4 0 8 1.56 4476 3.77 4 4 1 8 1.46 1311 3.6 4 4 1 7 1.37 3339 3.56 4 3 0 7 1.43 155 3.46 4 4 0 7 1.26 4505 3.44 3 3 1 7 1.34 1251 3.32 3 4 0 7 1.41 537 3.21 3 4 0 8 1.48 4656 3.21 3 2 0 6 1.43 190 3.2 3 3 0 6 1.36 4276 3.16 3 3 0 6 1.32 2386 3.13 3 3 1 7 1.36 4487 3.12 3 3 0 6 1.42 1515 3.09 3 3 0 8 1.58 3574 3.03 3 3 0 7 1.55 2789 3.02 3 2 0 7 1.48 604 3.01 3 3 0 6 1.37 1671 2.99 3 3 0 7 1.18 3244 2.95 3 3 0 6 1.37 3280 2.88 3 3 0 6 1.36 2194 2.86 3 3 0 7 1.37 771 2.82 3 3 0 6 1.40 4828 2.8 3 3 0 6 1.26 1511 2.77 3 3 0 7 1.42 492 2.73 3 3 0 6 1.38 88 2.68 3 3 0 5 1.19 4539 2.63 2.5 2 0 6 1.38 93 2.61 2.5 2 0 6 1.36 2080 2.61 3 3 0 6 1.38 1111 2.61 3 3 0 7 1.46 4531 2.44 2 2 0 7 1.31 1646 2.42 2 2 0 5 1.31 1739 2.42 2 2 0 6 1.15 2389 2.25 2 2 0 6 1.31 296 2.24 2 2 0 5 1.24 2283 2.23 2 2 0 5 1.41 4629 2.22 2 2 0 7 1.38 2655 2.22 2 3 0 5 1.29 4586 2.07 2 2 0 6 1.37 3171 2.03 2 2 0 4 1.12 122 1.8 2 2 0 5 1.18 4652 1.65 1 1 0 5 1.15 4666 1.62 2 2 0 5 1.20 4713 1.46 1 2 0 5 1.20 4572 1.04 1 1 0 3 0.90 |
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#130
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
As expected that almost exactly mirrors OPR.
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#131
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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#132
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
You can fish the data from 1114's spreadsheet.
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#133
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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At the old Maryland State Fair Robotics Competition, the schedule was created by hand. So, when a team did not show up for the event, there was no time to re-run the entire schedule for obvious reasons. It turned out that a team did not show up at all, but was still counted as a partner in the scheduled matches. If they were your partner you played 1 against 2 for that match. At the end of day one, after about 8 or 9 matches, the missing team was in 4th place. When that happened, I brought my whole team over to see the standings. It was very instructive as to how a favorable schedule can boost a team into the top 8. Just thought I would share. ![]() |
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#134
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
From the 100 schedule data, the standard deviation in rank was used to calculated the 95% rank and determine the outliers. There were 6 outliers. No one has a 3 sigma outlier schedule.
2389 has an easy schedule. Their average rank is 75 with a standard deviation of 18, but predicted rank is 36. Here are the 6 teams with outlier schedules Code:
Avg StDev Actual 1986 5 8 23 1523 23 16 56 3476 25 16 59 1410 32 19 76 116 35 23 92 2389 75 18 36 Last edited by Joe Ross : 23-04-2013 at 13:33. |
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#135
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Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division
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