Go to Post "Don't make me call my flying monkeys..." - Joe Johnson [more]
Home
Go Back   Chief Delphi > Competition > Championship Event
CD-Media   CD-Spy  
portal register members calendar search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read FAQ rules

 
Closed Thread
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
  #121   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 20:41
Joe Ross's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Ross Joe Ross is offline
Registered User
FRC #0330 (Beachbots)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1997
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 8,599
Joe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE View Post
I think JesseK's expectation is that we would see substantial variation between different schedules, i.e. ranking is more a function of schedule than of OPR "performance".
So yes, while the average would approach OPR, we only play a single schedule which is likely to be helpful to some teams and disadvantage others.
You are correct that the schedule has huge impact on ranking. Running 200 match schedules last year showed a standard deviation of number of wins for an average team being around 3.5. Out of 9 matches, that is huge.
  #122   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 20:47
MikeE's Avatar
MikeE MikeE is offline
Wrecking nice beaches since 1990
no team (Volunteer)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Rookie Year: 2008
Location: New England -> Alaska
Posts: 381
MikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by JesseK
Anyone feel like doing a Monte Carlo, should the schedule change? Simply swapping 4-6 teams per simulation and recalculating scores may be enough for more accurate predictions overall. I've been able to do one simulation manually, and the point spreads are close enough with the 2 schedules that I have that we could potentially go 6-2 instead of 3-5 (given our expected increased 24-pt teleop disc scoring ... well, that's my expectation...).
OK, so I bit and generated 10 different Newton schedules using an evaluation version of the scheduling software.
Match scores are based on Ed Law's Max OPR data for each team and Ether's world Auto/Climb/Teleop OPR data (linearly scaled to match Ed's Max OPR values).
This gives 10 sets of qualification rankings, one for each of the simulated schedules.

Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules:

Code:
Team	Rank	Best	Worst	Top8?
25	50.2	35	74	0
68	24.7	2	43	1
79	35.1	18	63	0
88	70.2	36	96	0
93	57.5	25	81	0
116	34.8	15	62	0
122	90.4	83	100	0
128	30.2	8	51	1
131	35.8	12	71	0
141	26.8	11	55	0
155	61.0	24	91	0
175	36.8	1	77	1
180	14.4	1	33	5
190	75.0	54	92	0
191	55.3	19	93	0
195	18.8	2	47	3
217	37.9	2	69	1
225	12.3	2	30	5
296	82.0	68	98	0
303	39.3	7	69	1
341	36.3	3	100	2
353	67.9	30	91	0
492	68.0	38	95	0
503	23.0	8	60	1
537	55.6	28	71	0
604	80.7	22	96	0
771	77.5	39	97	0
829	56.1	33	85	0
1111	83.6	70	98	0
1208	42.6	5	69	1
1251	73.5	40	98	0
1305	36.9	16	80	0
1311	68.2	19	96	0
1410	30.9	1	66	1
1511	75.7	54	98	0
1515	63.7	35	94	0
1523	25.2	3	49	2
1538	8.2	2	24	6
1569	38.5	7	81	1
1640	40.5	21	74	0
1646	67.7	48	95	0
1671	56.9	16	95	0
1676	9.2	1	20	6
1718	17.7	2	38	2
1730	44.2	12	99	0
1739	74.3	35	99	0
1741	20.4	10	42	0
1781	35.1	3	64	1
1885	31.9	5	80	2
1899	33.2	9	67	0
1985	36.7	13	77	0
1986	9.8	1	56	7
2052	21.9	5	79	2
2054	9.8	1	26	5
2080	74.9	37	88	0
2194	48.9	27	71	0
2252	40.7	14	79	0
2283	81.2	49	97	0
2352	45.2	8	82	1
2386	64.2	46	93	0
2389	78.9	44	100	0
2439	41.0	22	70	0
2471	20.4	6	77	3
2612	20.7	1	44	3
2619	19.7	6	59	4
2655	90.0	61	100	0
2783	63.9	28	94	0
2789	62.2	27	94	0
2826	20.2	1	57	2
2851	35.0	2	78	1
2974	40.5	18	79	0
3130	49.7	26	78	0
3137	44.8	19	78	0
3171	83.1	55	100	0
3244	71.6	51	86	0
3280	67.4	29	96	0
3339	60.8	9	94	0
3476	22.5	4	45	3
3574	63.5	43	80	0
3756	47.9	18	81	0
3802	19.5	9	42	0
3880	44.5	8	99	1
3931	37.6	6	68	1
3997	32.0	4	60	2
4276	76.4	31	98	0
4451	51.1	13	93	0
4476	68.0	27	97	0
4487	57.6	23	85	0
4505	69.9	43	96	0
4519	44.1	4	66	1
4531	81.0	26	98	0
4539	61.0	7	90	1
4572	89.0	55	100	0
4586	75.3	47	97	0
4629	79.1	57	99	0
4652	85.8	72	99	0
4656	63.7	38	90	0
4666	87.3	57	99	0
4713	81.5	54	93	0
4828	76.8	36	100	0
(The average rank correlation between schedules is 0.59, but between schedules and max OPR the rank correlation is 0.74)

Picking the most extreme examples, team 341 would rank either 3rd or last, based purely on their randomly chosen alliance partners and opponents.

So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected.
  #123   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 20:54
MikeE's Avatar
MikeE MikeE is offline
Wrecking nice beaches since 1990
no team (Volunteer)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Rookie Year: 2008
Location: New England -> Alaska
Posts: 381
MikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond reputeMikeE has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
You are correct that the schedule has huge impact on ranking. Running 200 match schedules last year showed a standard deviation of number of wins for an average team being around 3.5. Out of 9 matches, that is huge.
I'm clearly far too lazy to run 200 simulations (thanks for the link!), but from just 10 simulations it seems the variation is even greater this year, partly due to just 8 matches in the Championship division qualifications.

Of course the basic underlying assumption (every team scores exactly "OPR" points each match) is fundamentally flawed, but that doesn't dilute the importance of schedule.
  #124   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 21:18
MARS_James's Avatar
MARS_James MARS_James is offline
Always Scouting
AKA: James Comstock
FRC #0179 (The Children of The Swamp)
Team Role: Tactician
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Rookie Year: 2006
Location: Jupiter, Florida
Posts: 1,968
MARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to MARS_James
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
Code:
Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	AP	TP	CP
56	1523	4	4	0	8	8	125	372	169
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE View Post

Code:
Team	Rank	Best	Worst	Top8?
1523	25.2	3	49	2
Boy here I thought my team got a decent schedule apparently the scheduling gods gave us one of the if not the worst schedule possible
__________________
Driving Record: 24-8
Coaching Record: 66-31
2014 South Florida Regional Woodie Flowers Finalist


  #125   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 21:24
Siri's Avatar
Siri Siri is offline
Dare greatly
AKA: 1640 coach 2010-2014
FRC #2641 (PCCR; Refs & RIs)
Team Role: Coach
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Rookie Year: 2007
Location: PA
Posts: 1,639
Siri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond reputeSiri has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via ICQ to Siri
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by MARS_James View Post
Boy here I thought my team got a decent schedule apparently the scheduling gods gave us one of the if not the worst schedule possible
Something interesting is going on. We ranged 21-74, but the actual schedule put us at 18.
__________________
  #126   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 21:28
cmrnpizzo14's Avatar
cmrnpizzo14 cmrnpizzo14 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Cam Pizzo
FRC #3173 (IgKNIGHTers)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Rookie Year: 2006
Location: Boston
Posts: 522
cmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond reputecmrnpizzo14 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alpha Beta View Post
You play the hand your dealt.
At least I'm predicted to lead the Division in Autonomous. If that prediction holds true then every victory we steal moves us to the head of the next win/loss category. Might make some noise here yet.

I would expect 1986 to at the very least "make some noise here" I picked you guys with the 2nd pick in my fantasy league so I hope you pan out for me!
__________________
FIRST Team 3173 The IgKNIGHTers

"Where should we put the battery?"
  #127   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 22-04-2013, 21:31
Gregor's Avatar
Gregor Gregor is offline
#StickToTheStratisQuo
AKA: Gregor Browning
no team
Team Role: College Student
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Rookie Year: 2012
Location: Kingston, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 2,447
Gregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond reputeGregor has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

So 1986 seeded in the top 10 7 out of 10 times, yet not even close in the prelim schedule (all OPR based and every one guaranteed to be wrong).

Man, that's a tough schedule.
__________________
What are nationals? Sounds like a fun American party, can we Canadians come?
“For me, insanity is super sanity. The normal is psychotic. Normal means lack of imagination, lack of creativity.” -Jean Dubuffet
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." -Albert Einstein
FLL 2011-2015 Glen Ames Robotics-Student, Mentor
FRC 2012-2013 Team 907-Scouting Lead, Strategy Lead, Human Player, Driver
FRC 2014-2015 Team 1310-Mechanical, Electrical, Drive Captain
FRC 2011-xxxx Volunteer
How I came to be a FIRSTer
<Since 2011
  #128   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 08:45
MARS_James's Avatar
MARS_James MARS_James is offline
Always Scouting
AKA: James Comstock
FRC #0179 (The Children of The Swamp)
Team Role: Tactician
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Rookie Year: 2006
Location: Jupiter, Florida
Posts: 1,968
MARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond reputeMARS_James has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to MARS_James
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post

Code:
Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	Matches	QP	AP	TP	CP
56	1523	4	4	0	8	8	125	372	169
I hate to keep harping on this but a thought just occurred to me a teams AP TP and CP scores added together should be equal to your total scores from each of your matches correct? Well on this if you add together the CP AP and TP you get 666 ( ) or an average score of 83.25 per match. However if you add the OPR scores of each match my team has you get 872 or 109 points per match. So though I think according to OPR my teams win loss is correct, OPR contradicts the average scores used for rankings.
__________________
Driving Record: 24-8
Coaching Record: 66-31
2014 South Florida Regional Woodie Flowers Finalist


  #129   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 11:39
Joe Ross's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Ross Joe Ross is offline
Registered User
FRC #0330 (Beachbots)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1997
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 8,599
Joe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE View Post
Here's a summary of each team's average, best, worst and "in top 8" rankings across those 10 schedules:
Here's what I get with 100 schedules for rank

Code:
	Avg	Med	Mode	Min	Max	StDev	Top8	#1
1986	5.37	2	1	1	42	7.75	78	38
2054	10.54	5	3	1	62	12.31	60	12
225	12.65	10.5	15	1	61	10.78	43	6
1676	12.85	9.5	4	1	54	11.31	48	6
1538	14.09	10	2	1	49	13.13	46	7
180	15.33	12.5	8	1	49	12.61	40	5
195	19.67	17.5	8	1	75	13.75	24	1
1718	20	14	11	1	68	16.81	31	1
128	20.52	14.5	7	1	67	16.92	29	2
1208	21.55	17.5	33	1	92	16.23	22	2
2052	22.05	19	17	1	71	14.93	21	1
2612	22.96	16	13	1	68	17.05	22	2
1523	23.46	21	21	1	71	16.11	23	1
2826	24.2	20.5	11	1	83	17.72	16	3
3476	24.64	25	15	1	65	15.60	15	2
1741	26.62	23.5	9	2	91	19.83	15	0
68	27.07	23	15	1	68	17.29	15	2
131	28.68	22	18	1	81	18.39	10	1
141	29.53	25	13	1	88	20.73	11	1
2471	29.74	25	26	2	92	21.34	17	0
2619	30.39	27	22	2	81	20.01	15	0
2252	31.27	28.5	7	1	85	20.38	15	3
1410	32.11	31	39	1	76	19.21	10	2
503	32.67	28.5	20	2	85	21.07	10	0
79	33.22	33	19	2	93	20.61	12	0
175	35.41	31.5	17	3	85	19.88	3	0
116	35.44	32	34	2	95	22.75	8	0
1899	36.02	34	27	4	84	20.26	9	0
3997	36.24	39.5	40	3	91	20.40	8	0
303	36.59	35.5	31	2	85	19.20	4	0
1640	37.38	34	16	3	93	21.47	8	0
4451	37.51	29	24	2	93	24.12	8	0
3931	37.64	37	29	3	77	19.59	8	0
829	38.26	37	45	4	84	20.03	5	0
217	38.29	34	32	2	94	23.43	12	0
341	39.27	33.5	14	2	93	22.65	8	0
1781	40.18	38.5	33	3	95	20.23	4	0
2352	40.35	40	46	1	87	20.23	5	1
3137	40.76	41.5	24	2	94	21.57	4	0
1985	40.83	41	32	5	95	20.92	5	0
1569	41.79	41.5	48	6	94	20.15	3	0
2439	43.21	41	32	6	87	21.03	5	0
2851	43.34	44	29	4	92	20.46	4	0
3130	43.95	43.5	14	2	97	22.29	3	0
2974	44.48	41	31	5	94	23.31	5	0
4519	44.79	43.5	47	1	98	22.41	3	1
1885	45.21	44.5	30	9	86	19.79	0	0
1730	45.5	46	47	5	94	20.87	2	0
2783	47.2	46	66	6	97	21.97	3	0
3802	47.29	46	46	3	92	19.40	2	0
191	47.82	48	38	2	94	22.12	2	0
3880	47.98	51.5	55	6	85	21.00	1	0
1305	48.18	48	48	4	92	21.23	4	0
3756	52.62	53.5	66	10	95	22.69	0	0
4505	57.07	62.5	64	5	97	21.81	1	0
353	57.14	57	53	4	98	24.00	1	0
25	57.25	57.5	57	13	94	20.51	0	0
4476	57.37	57	71	3	96	23.16	3	0
1311	60.18	64.5	73	10	98	21.69	0	0
155	60.21	60.5	67	13	99	19.38	0	0
3339	60.62	58	58	7	100	21.46	1	0
1671	62.32	64	62	9	99	19.12	0	0
1251	63.8	62.5	56	7	99	21.52	1	0
4656	63.85	67	54	14	100	22.13	0	0
3574	64.34	66	92	9	100	23.27	0	0
537	64.96	65	72	6	100	21.52	1	0
4276	65.05	68	86	21	99	19.78	0	0
2386	65.98	70	70	13	96	20.97	0	0
3244	66.04	68	69	19	100	20.16	0	0
2194	66.2	66	81	5	99	20.79	2	0
4487	66.48	70.5	58	15	100	22.02	0	0
1515	66.55	70	83	2	99	22.41	3	0
3280	66.84	69	70	14	100	19.59	0	0
4539	68.44	71	65	15	100	20.57	0	0
190	69.07	75.5	77	19	100	20.76	0	0
604	69.26	71	61	20	100	19.88	0	0
492	69.53	71.5	84	7	100	20.19	1	0
93	70.97	73.5	84	19	100	19.78	0	0
2789	71.15	74	74	7	100	21.84	1	0
4828	72.15	75	85	20	100	17.76	0	0
1646	72.35	78	93	24	99	19.17	0	0
771	72.73	77.5	80	19	99	19.77	0	0
2080	73.41	74.5	74	19	100	19.45	0	0
1511	73.61	76	87	10	100	19.88	0	0
1111	73.88	77	86	7	100	20.60	1	0
88	74.95	77	87	37	100	16.63	0	0
2283	75.18	80.5	92	29	100	19.86	0	0
2389	75.35	81	84	14	100	18.38	0	0
296	76.24	80	82	30	100	16.48	0	0
1739	77.2	81.5	86	23	100	15.97	0	0
4586	77.39	80.5	92	17	100	18.70	0	0
4531	77.4	82.5	86	9	99	17.65	0	0
4629	77.67	83	85	10	100	18.89	0	0
122	80.61	83	98	31	100	15.17	0	0
2655	81.98	87	95	36	100	15.45	0	0
3171	83.49	88.5	89	40	100	14.00	0	0
4666	87	91	100	35	100	13.79	0	0
4652	88.54	93.5	96	38	100	12.68	0	0
4713	90.45	95	100	26	100	12.82	0	0
4572	93.04	96	100	68	100	7.73	0	0
and for wins
Code:
	Avg	Med	Mode	Min	Max	StDev
1986	7.01	7	7	4	8	0.93
2054	6.47	7	7	3	8	1.16
225	6.39	6	6	3	8	0.99
1676	6.36	6	7	3	8	1.12
180	6.19	6	7	4	8	1.08
1538	6.15	6	7	4	8	1.22
195	6.1	6	6	3	8	1.04
1523	5.94	6	6	3	8	1.21
1718	5.84	6	6	3	8	1.34
2052	5.82	6	6	3	8	1.19
1208	5.82	6	5	1	8	1.24
128	5.74	6	6	3	8	1.29
2612	5.47	6	6	3	8	1.27
2826	5.44	5.5	6	2	8	1.33
68	5.37	5	6	3	8	1.28
131	5.35	6	6	2	8	1.29
3476	5.32	5	6	3	8	1.16
1410	5.24	5	6	2	8	1.30
503	5.2	5	6	2	8	1.46
1741	5.17	5	6	1	8	1.35
4451	5.16	5	6	2	8	1.48
79	5.15	5	5	1	8	1.47
2471	5.08	5	6	1	8	1.44
2252	5.05	5	4	2	8	1.40
116	5.05	5	5	1	8	1.48
2619	5	5	5	2	8	1.41
303	4.91	5	4	2	8	1.24
141	4.9	5	5	1	7	1.37
217	4.81	5	5	1	8	1.56
829	4.79	5	5	2	8	1.34
3931	4.75	5	4	2	8	1.29
1899	4.74	5	4	2	7	1.31
1640	4.73	5	5	1	7	1.40
175	4.66	5	5	2	8	1.27
341	4.49	5	5	1	8	1.48
1781	4.48	4	4	1	8	1.33
2439	4.44	4	5	2	7	1.35
2352	4.44	4	4	2	8	1.30
3997	4.4	4	4	1	7	1.32
1985	4.34	4	4	1	7	1.36
3137	4.32	4	5	1	8	1.37
1569	4.3	4	4	1	7	1.28
2851	4.28	4	5	1	7	1.29
1885	4.27	4	5	2	7	1.26
2974	4.24	4	5	1	7	1.50
3880	4.24	4	4	2	7	1.36
4519	4.13	4	4	0	8	1.45
1730	4.12	4	4	1	7	1.31
2783	4.1	4	3	0	7	1.41
191	4.07	4	5	1	8	1.43
3802	4.05	4	4	1	7	1.22
3130	4.05	4	4	0	8	1.43
1305	3.96	4	4	1	7	1.36
3756	3.86	4	3	1	7	1.44
25	3.81	4	4	1	6	1.27
353	3.77	4	4	0	8	1.56
4476	3.77	4	4	1	8	1.46
1311	3.6	4	4	1	7	1.37
3339	3.56	4	3	0	7	1.43
155	3.46	4	4	0	7	1.26
4505	3.44	3	3	1	7	1.34
1251	3.32	3	4	0	7	1.41
537	3.21	3	4	0	8	1.48
4656	3.21	3	2	0	6	1.43
190	3.2	3	3	0	6	1.36
4276	3.16	3	3	0	6	1.32
2386	3.13	3	3	1	7	1.36
4487	3.12	3	3	0	6	1.42
1515	3.09	3	3	0	8	1.58
3574	3.03	3	3	0	7	1.55
2789	3.02	3	2	0	7	1.48
604	3.01	3	3	0	6	1.37
1671	2.99	3	3	0	7	1.18
3244	2.95	3	3	0	6	1.37
3280	2.88	3	3	0	6	1.36
2194	2.86	3	3	0	7	1.37
771	2.82	3	3	0	6	1.40
4828	2.8	3	3	0	6	1.26
1511	2.77	3	3	0	7	1.42
492	2.73	3	3	0	6	1.38
88	2.68	3	3	0	5	1.19
4539	2.63	2.5	2	0	6	1.38
93	2.61	2.5	2	0	6	1.36
2080	2.61	3	3	0	6	1.38
1111	2.61	3	3	0	7	1.46
4531	2.44	2	2	0	7	1.31
1646	2.42	2	2	0	5	1.31
1739	2.42	2	2	0	6	1.15
2389	2.25	2	2	0	6	1.31
296	2.24	2	2	0	5	1.24
2283	2.23	2	2	0	5	1.41
4629	2.22	2	2	0	7	1.38
2655	2.22	2	3	0	5	1.29
4586	2.07	2	2	0	6	1.37
3171	2.03	2	2	0	4	1.12
122	1.8	2	2	0	5	1.18
4652	1.65	1	1	0	5	1.15
4666	1.62	2	2	0	5	1.20
4713	1.46	1	2	0	5	1.20
4572	1.04	1	1	0	3	0.90
  #130   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 11:47
pntbll1313's Avatar
pntbll1313 pntbll1313 is offline
2052 Coach, Build/Electrical Mentor
AKA: Pete
FRC #2052 (KnightKrawler)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Rookie Year: 2007
Location: New Brighton, MN
Posts: 254
pntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud ofpntbll1313 has much to be proud of
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

As expected that almost exactly mirrors OPR.
__________________
2016 (mentor/drive-coach)
Quarter-Finalist-Einstein, Winner-Carson Division Champs, Winner-10K Lakes, Chairman's Award-10K Lakes, Finalists-Lake Superior,
Winner-MSHSL Robotics Competition

2015 (mentor/drive-coach)
Finalists-10K Lakes, Finalists-Lake Superior, Finalist-MSHL Robotics Competition, Quarter-Finalist-Galileo Division Champs
2014 (mentor/drive-coach)
Winner-10K Lakes, Winner-Lake Superior Winner-MSHSL Robotics Competition, Quarter-Finalist-Galileo Division Champs
2013 (mentor/drive-coach)
Winner-10K Lakes, Winner-Lake Superior, Winner-MSHSL Robotics Competition, Quarter-Finalist-Newton Division Champs
2012 (mentor/drive-coach)
Finalists-Lake Superior, Semi-Finalist-MSHSL State Championship, Semi-Finalists at 10,000 Lakes
2008-2011 (college mentor)
2007 (driver)
Quarter Finalist-Milwaukee
  #131   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 11:58
Joe Ross's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Ross Joe Ross is offline
Registered User
FRC #0330 (Beachbots)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1997
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 8,599
Joe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by MARS_James View Post
I hate to keep harping on this but a thought just occurred to me a teams AP TP and CP scores added together should be equal to your total scores from each of your matches correct? Well on this if you add together the CP AP and TP you get 666 ( ) or an average score of 83.25 per match. However if you add the OPR scores of each match my team has you get 872 or 109 points per match. So though I think according to OPR my teams win loss is correct, OPR contradicts the average scores used for rankings.
Only if the data came from the same source. As stated, the OPR comes from each team's best event OPR, and auto, teleop, and climb comes from world OPR. Since no one publishes each teams teleop, auto, and climb opr at their best event, the numbers don't add up.
  #132   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 12:16
KrazyCarl92's Avatar
KrazyCarl92 KrazyCarl92 is offline
Registered User
AKA: Carl Springli
FRC #0020 (The Rocketeers)(EWCP)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Rookie Year: 2010
Location: Clifton Park, NY
Posts: 523
KrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond reputeKrazyCarl92 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
Only if the data came from the same source. As stated, the OPR comes from each team's best event OPR, and auto, teleop, and climb comes from world OPR. Since no one publishes each teams teleop, auto, and climb opr at their best event, the numbers don't add up.
You can fish the data from 1114's spreadsheet.
__________________
[2017-present] FRC 0020 - The Rocketeers
[2016] FRC 5811 - BONDS Robotics
[2010-2015] FRC 0020 - The Rocketeers
  #133   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 12:25
OZ_341's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
OZ_341 OZ_341 is offline
Registered User
#0341 (Wissahickon)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Rookie Year: 2000
Location: Ambler, PA
Posts: 1,477
OZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond reputeOZ_341 has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeE View Post
........... So I think we can conclude that there is a fairly high degree of scheduling luck, just as we expected.
Definitely agree. I have a slightly more anecdotal story related to this discussion.
At the old Maryland State Fair Robotics Competition, the schedule was created by hand. So, when a team did not show up for the event, there was no time to re-run the entire schedule for obvious reasons. It turned out that a team did not show up at all, but was still counted as a partner in the scheduled matches. If they were your partner you played 1 against 2 for that match.
At the end of day one, after about 8 or 9 matches, the missing team was in 4th place. When that happened, I brought my whole team over to see the standings. It was very instructive as to how a favorable schedule can boost a team into the top 8. Just thought I would share.
__________________
2010 Championship Chairman's Award
2016 MAR District Champion (thank you 225 & 1257)
2016 Galileo Division, #6 Seed, 9 W - 1 L
2016 MAR District Innovation in Controls Award
2016 Westtown District Finalist (thank you 4954 & 484)
2016 Westtown District Imagery Award (It took 17 yrs)
2016 Hatboro District Judge's Award
Overall Record 49 W - 21 L
  #134   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 13:18
Joe Ross's Avatar Unsung FIRST Hero
Joe Ross Joe Ross is offline
Registered User
FRC #0330 (Beachbots)
Team Role: Engineer
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Rookie Year: 1997
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 8,599
Joe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond reputeJoe Ross has a reputation beyond repute
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

From the 100 schedule data, the standard deviation in rank was used to calculated the 95% rank and determine the outliers. There were 6 outliers. No one has a 3 sigma outlier schedule.

2389 has an easy schedule. Their average rank is 75 with a standard deviation of 18, but predicted rank is 36.

Here are the 6 teams with outlier schedules

Code:
	Avg	StDev	Actual
1986	5	8	23
1523	23	16	56
3476	25	16	59
1410	32	19	76
116	35	23	92
2389	75	18	36

Last edited by Joe Ross : 23-04-2013 at 13:33.
  #135   Spotlight this post!  
Unread 23-04-2013, 13:39
Nuttyman54's Avatar
Nuttyman54 Nuttyman54 is online now
Mentor, Tactician
AKA: Evan "Numbers" Morrison
FRC #5803 (Apex Robotics) and FRC #0971 (Spartan Robotics)
Team Role: Mentor
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Rookie Year: 2005
Location: Seattle, WA/Mountain View, CA
Posts: 2,140
Nuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond reputeNuttyman54 has a reputation beyond repute
Send a message via AIM to Nuttyman54
Re: 2013 Championship Newton Division

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Ross View Post
From the 100 schedule data, the standard deviation in rank was used to calculated the 95% rank and determine the outliers. There were 6 outliers. No one has a 3 sigma outlier schedule.

2389 has an easy schedule. Their average rank is 75 with a standard deviation of 18, but predicted rank is 36.

Here are the 6 teams with outlier schedules

Code:
	Avg	StDev	Actual
1986	5	8	23
1523	23	16	56
3476	25	16	59
1410	32	19	76
116	35	23	92
2389	75	18	36
This is a really interesting way of evaluating the difficulty of schedules. Would you mind doing this for the other fields?
__________________
Closed Thread


Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 14:09.

The Chief Delphi Forums are sponsored by Innovation First International, Inc.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © Chief Delphi