OPR vs Record at championship

[Bongle]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

I can tell you 422 went the opposite of the OPR projection of 2-6 and posted a 6-2 record and everyone will agree that CMP was by far nowhere near as good on the whole as DCR, and the actual robot scores show that.

OPR is becoming less reliable as teams in CMP divisions are coming in with pre-CMP match differences of up to 50.

Another reason for that is that OPR doesn't compare well across events. Suppose regional A had a ton of defense, and regional B had wide-open scoring. Two robots of equal quality could each go to their regionals and have vastly different OPRs because at regional A, nobody could score well and at regional B, everyone was free to score. Projections based on OPR from each regional might show that the teams that went to regional A were much worse than the teams from regional B, but they're actually pretty strong.

It also ignores robot, team, strategy, and luck upgrades that might occur between regionals and championships.