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Unread 28-05-2013, 07:58
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Re: Best way to predict match outcomes

When talking about predictors, I think understanding the usefulness is very important. 33 likes to use it is a way to gauge strength of schedule and predict rankings as well as matches to watch out for. First event is always the toughest as there is no "going in" data.
Using a match predictor won't turn a 2/10 team into a 10/2 team, but it often helps go from 9/3 to 10/2. while winning an extra match doesn't sound that impressive, look at many of the standings, and you will find that the difference between loosing 2 and loosing 3 matches is frequently the difference between being a captain or not.
As our data comes in, we will put predicting scoring ranges on our scouting card we give to the coach.
It sounds like Team 20 has a very neat method for doing their predictions, and the accuracy sounds pretty impressive though you have to look at the accuracy relative to the known data you have. Post predicting is way different than pre-predicting.
Overall, it isn't the most critical thing your team can do, but it may help you pay attention to the match you thought would be easy (and end up loosing) or help you strategize turning a loosing match into a win.

For all of these methods, a 75% accuracy level of who is going to win is probably close enough to pay attention to.

For 2012, we would use component OPR to help decide who should be doing the balancing for the Co-Op bridge.
 


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