Best way to predict match outcomes

[JackS]

Andrew Schreiber and I tried to put together and ELO Chess model that wasn't that accurate for 2012. I am suspicious that the bridge might have been responsible for that. We will eventually tweak the model and run it on 2013. Ideally it would produce accurate ratings for teams (more accurate than OPR) and those ratings would be good match predictors.

Personally, I'd trust my gut on a picklist over any list generated by a match predictor. To me, match prediction is some cool math, but isn't that practical.