9th seed decline

[Caleb Sykes]

Has a 9th seed ever declined? Did anyone ever have the guts/motivation to do so?

Here is my story.
At the Lake Superior Regional this year, we ended the quals seeded 9th. We were reasonably assured that we would be one of the first few picks. Since there were a few good robots in the top 8, and we didn't necessarily want to be with the number 1,2, or 3 seeds, I threw out the idea of declining. I immediately got shocked silence, then horrified stares, then threats on my life (I was going to be the team representative). I was told that if I declined, I would be walking the 100+ miles back home that night.

My question is, under what circumstances (if any) would you decline a pick as a 9/10 seed? Apparently, you still have a 96% chance of being a captain as a 9th seed.

Here is the alliance selection data from every competition this year. Thanks to team 2834 for providing their championship scouting database from which I made this.

[Kevin Leonard]

I remember a story from Karthik's strategy talks from 2011 where they were seeded just outside the top 8 (I wanna say about 11th, but I could be wrong), and Team 1771 was seeded 1st. Karthik knew that with 1771, they had little chance at a world championship, but hesitated to decline because they could end up not being in eliminations at all.

This year, in Archimedes, we (20) were seeded 10th. There were a few teams that had the potential to seed inside the top 8 that we weren't comfortable being on an eliminations alliance with. We told our field representative that if she managed to be on the field as a captain by the time one of these teams tried to pick us, she should decline and we'd take our chances as an 8 seed captain. That situation didn't end up happening, as these teams ended up losing the matches they had the potential to win and seeding behind us.

But if we were the 9 seed and a 1-6 seed captain tried to pick us that we weren't comfortable competing with, we'd absolutely decline if there was some chance we could end up an alliance captain instead.

[Boe]

this is probably one of the most interesting situations that can arise during alliance selection.

Karthik discussed just how screwy this situation can get during his 2012 presentation at champs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apk_X-maRf8
from ~1:29:20 to ~1:35:00

[iVanDuzer]

Originally Posted by Boe

this is probably one of the most interesting situations that can arise during alliance selection.

Karthik discussed just how screwy this situation can get during his 2012 presentation at champs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Apk_X-maRf8
from ~1:29:20 to ~1:35:00

Link to the relevant story. Thought it'd be easier for everybody.

[Redo91]

It seems that you are saying as a 9th seed you can decline, then move up to the number 8 position if it opened up(it usually does).

It was my understanding that if you were not an alliance captain and declined, you were out for good. This would explain your team's shocked silence.

What have past rules been governing this?

[Nemo]

Originally Posted by Redo91

It seems that you are saying as a 9th seed you can decline, then move up to the number 8 position if it opened up(it usually does).

It was my understanding that if you were not an alliance captain and declined, you were out for good. This would explain your team's shocked silence.

What have past rules been governing this?

The rule is that once you decline an invitation, you cannot be invited by anybody else. Declining does not prevent you from being an alliance captain, regardless of whether you started out in the top 8 or not.

[Redo91]

Originally Posted by Nemo

The rule is that once you decline an invitation, you cannot be invited by anybody else. Declining does not prevent you from being an alliance captain, regardless of whether you started out in the top 8 or not.

That cleared it up, thanks.

I knew that alliance captains could not be chosen after they declined. I was unaware that you could still move up from 9 to 8 after declining. I never encountered a circumstance like that in my time as a high school student.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Redo91

That cleared it up, thanks.

I knew that alliance captains could not be chosen after they declined. I was unaware that you could still move up from 9 to 8 after declining. I never encountered a circumstance like that in my time as a high school student.

Good for you. It's not a fun situation to be put into. Even now, we have what-if scenarios from Archimedes. "What if we had declined 948?" They usually end with "Well regardless of what kind of alliance we built, we'd have been against 987 and 2415- so we would have lost."
Karthik's story would have been a bit different. A 1114-973-341 alliance? THAT would have been crazy in 2011. (Heck, this year that would be crazy!)

[Koko Ed]

@ THE 2009 FLR the 13th seed declined a selection from the 3rd seed in hopes of getting in as the 8th seed.
They didn't quite make it in.

[Racer26]

I know I've seen it at least once, where a 8-13 seed declined, planning to make an alliance captain spot, and got hung out to dry. I don't remember where it was though.

I also know my team was seeded 11th or so one year, and thought we'd make elims as a captain, but were not selected at all (we weren't that good) and only 2 selections within the top 8 happened, leaving us as the first backup bot, at 11th seed.

[Jon Stratis]

Originally Posted by inkling16

Has a 9th seed ever declined? Did anyone ever have the guts/motivation to do so?

Here is my story.
At the Lake Superior Regional this year, we ended the quals seeded 9th. We were reasonably assured that we would be one of the first few picks. Since there were a few good robots in the top 8, and we didn't necessarily want to be with the number 1,2, or 3 seeds, I threw out the idea of declining. I immediately got shocked silence, then horrified stares, then threats on my life (I was going to be the team representative). I was told that if I declined, I would be walking the 100+ miles back home that night.

My question is, under what circumstances (if any) would you decline a pick as a 9/10 seed? Apparently, you still have a 96% chance of being a captain as a 9th seed.

Here is the alliance selection data from every competition this year. Thanks to team 2834 for providing their championship scouting database from which I made this.

I think, as far as moves go, it's completely legitimate and something to talk about... but at the same time, the risk associated with declining while in 9th would be enough to make me accept.

If you're going to decline at any level, I think you need to do more work with your scouting and selection strategy than other teams. Think about it... most of the teams out there have a simple choice: Accept or don't play. Some teams have a harder decision to make: They have to rank all of the other teams in order to figure out who to pick (and every year at every regional you have at least one team that doesn't do this and needs about 5 minutes to make up their mind while everyone's waiting). If you're going to be declining as a 9th or 10th seed, you need to take it one step further - you need to create your own ranked list AND you need to figure out what other team's ranked lists will be, keeping in mind that everyone won't have the exact same desires in alliance partners as you will. Essentially, you need to be pretty sure you know exactly who will pick whom in order to know if you'll make it or not. It's a tough position to be in.

[Peyton Yeung]

In 2012, my team was ranked 11th at Queen City and as we formulated a pick list the question of if we would say yes to teams came up. Everyone said yes because they wanted us in the eliminations. It turned out that we moved into the 8th captain spot and swept the elimination matches. In the end whether we said yes or no to an earlier captain wouldn't have mattered but it was idea we passed around nonetheless.

[purduephotog]

Originally Posted by Koko Ed

@ THE 2009 FLR the 13th seed declined a selection from the 3rd seed in hopes of getting in as the 8th seed.
They didn't quite make it in.

Yep. I was pretty shocked. I took photos of that moment. The individual ended up walking off the field when he realized what he'd done.

[IKE]

As it hasn't been mentioned, beware of "Scorched Earth". While the #9 almost always bubbles up, the exact reason you may want to decline a #1 may be the exact reason you want to accept a #1. Occasionally the team in #1 will get turned down by the majority of the other alliance captains. This can lead to a #9 rank getting left outside of the draft.

[Caleb Sykes]

What interests me are the 5 events this year where there was little/no interpicking in the top 8. They are:
No interpicking:
Curie Division
Hatboro Horsham
Buckeye

1 interpick:
Traverse City
Oregon

Can anyone provide insight as to the selections at these events? Were there a lot of top 8 declines? Was there a high seeded team that no one wanted to be with?