What we expect to see from FRC/FIRST in the next 5 years

[Joe G.]

Originally Posted by DampRobot

I'd much rather have a non-profit like USFIRST organize my robotics competition that a company like IFI.

Just to clarify, VRC is run by a non-profit organization, the RECF. VRC is run by IFI in the same way that FLL is run by The LEGO Group.

Originally Posted by ttldomination

Not quite sure I agree on this accord. I see no reason why the FTC program is established as a "feeder" program vs. a VRC program, but perhaps that is a conversation for another thread.

The FIRST/VEX rift has been growing, and it only stands to expand with the launch of VIQ. At this point, I'm not even sure it's possible to bridge the divide, but competition is good for the community and watching VEX/IFI rise to challenge FLL/FTC has been exciting.

- Sunny G.

Nowhere did I say that this would happen due to some kind of reunification effort. As I implied in my first post, I think one of the greatest things about VRC is that it gives the competition the grandeur it deserves, with much more generous advancement rules than FTC can have, and their own world championship on the scale of FRC's. I simply think that this is the direction the FTC and VRC programs will naturally gravitate towards over the coming years, due to the nature of the programs. Recent changes by FTC seem to suggest that FIRST is actively trying to fill the niche of feeder programs, by making robot rules more comparable to FRC and giving students FRC-relevant design experience, at the expense of program cost and accessibility.

However, if anything, "the rift" as you call it seems to have actually been narrowing in recent years (the low point to me was FRC 2011 Team Update 4). Some examples from the past few years include the VexPro launch and its embrace in the KOP, and IFI being given the Jaguar development by FIRST. I don't see VexIQ changing things that much either. It makes sense as a feeder program for the non-feeder VRC teams I outlined above, for many of the same reasons that FTC makes more sense as an FRC feeder. FLL, meanwhile, not only makes sense likewise as an FTC/FRC feeder, but is a veritable 20,000+ team juggernaut, with much more mass appeal than any other robotics program out there at any level, and one of the world's most recognizable brands behind it. It isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I'll end with this very wise post from Mr. Dave Lavery from a few years back. Even though we've grown, it still very much applies.

I have said it before, and I will say it again: If between them FIRST, IFI, BotBall, BEST, and PLTW are collectively dedicating even a single neuron firing to the contemplation of how to beat the "other guys," then collectively they are all fools.

Let's look at some reality. TSA will reach 150,000 students this year[1], the FIRST Robotics Competition will reach an estimated 41,000 students[2], Project Lead The Way manages to contact 500,000 students[3], BotBall touches approximately 5,000[4], and the VEX competitions add about 6,000 more[5]. That is a grand total of about 700,000 students involved in these programs today.

As of 2007, there are an estimated 16,400,000 high school students in the U.S.[6]. So collectively, these guys are affecting a grand, whopping, huge 4.2 percent of the U.S. high school student population. That is right – 4.2 percent. Over 95% of the current high school students in the United States are not engaged by any of them.

Given a potential market that is 25 times larger than the entire population currently served by these programs – and remembering that it has taken nearly 20 years for them to grow just to this point – the ONLY focus that anyone should have is how to reach that larger market.

The publicly-stated goal of each of these organizations is to provide inspiration and education on STEM topics to those that have not yet "seen the light." You don’t do that by trying to convince those already converted that your particular phrasing of the message is better. You do it by reaching out to those that have never heard the message in the first place. A little less time spent on turf wars, and a little more time spent on reaching the 95% of students who are oblivious to your existence, might be wise.

FTC and VRC will both grow to fill their niches, rather than one "beating" the other, I guarantee it. My post simply outlines a likely way in which I see that happening.

[Foster]

Originally Posted by Joe G.

I'll end with this very wise post from Mr. Dave Lavery from a few years back. Even though we've grown, it still very much applies.

FTC and VRC will both grow to fill their niches, rather than one "beating" the other, I guarantee it. My post simply outlines a likely way in which I see that happening.

Yes! Never too many Roboteers!

Along that line I'm excited about the new VEX IQ, radio controlled robots built with parts that at a distance bear a resemblance to Lego. For $300. So places that were/are under served by cost limits can now get into the game. Places that are limited by mentor skills in design and programing can now get into the game. More Roboteers!

Schools are facing a crisis with rising enrollments, plummeting budgets, teachers not being willing to put the 3.2 million hours of extra time in so after school programs suffer. So parents need to fill the gap.

I see FIRST (and RECF and the people that run all the other programs, BEST, Bunnybots?, etc) to start a 2 pronged approach:

1) Start a better innovation program with the new "soft" industries. Traditional mfg is down, there are lots of workers in the information processing companies. I have limited build skills, 2 years ago would never be able to build an FRC robot. Now with Andy Mark/IFI and others selling parts, I can take my trusty crescent wrench, two screw drivers an a ball peen hammer and off we go. This new set of parts allows FIRST to go into a "keyboard" companies and show them they can build robots too!

2) Districts, districts, districts! More competitions! Key is I think some bright person is going to figure out a way to allow cross district team events. (think Ed Law and Ether coming up with some 3D OPR calculation math magic)

Then I'm not always stuck in MAR WEST, getting crushed by Miss Daisy event after event, but I can go to MAR EAST and get stomped by the Pi-oneers as my "third district" event. Or make the big leap and go to the Toronto district and get schooled by Simbotics. Or I can stay home and drive 90 mins to my events. I get the best of districts and the adventure of travel.

More events means more robot play time for the dollar and adds value to the roboteer experience. And it also gives the public more of a chance to come see whats going on.

[Michael Hill]

I think we will eventually get into a "conference" or "league" type setup. Have an "Eastern" and "Western" (or however they decide to break it up) Conference. The top 100 teams from each conference goes to worlds making it a much smaller event with 50 teams/division instead of 100.

They could even break it up into 4 conferences (1 for each division at worlds) and the top 50 go on to worlds to compete with each other then with the other conferences.

[Dale]

There's been a few mentions of BunnyBots in this discussion which is gratifying. We've worked hard over the last five years building this program into what it is. BunnyBots is, however, very much a part of the FRC world. It's role is to be an engaging, low pressure introduction to FRC for new members in the fall by building FRC-class robots for an original game played on FRC-size fields using FRC legal parts and rules. The idea is that once you hit build season all of the team's members know what they are doing. It's been working exceptionally well in Oregon which is why other teams are exploring hosting one in their area.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Foster

2) Districts, districts, districts! More competitions! Key is I think some bright person is going to figure out a way to allow cross district team events. (think Ed Law and Ether coming up with some 3D OPR calculation math magic)

Then I'm not always stuck in MAR WEST, getting crushed by Miss Daisy event after event, but I can go to MAR EAST and get stomped by the Pi-oneers as my "third district" event. Or make the big leap and go to the Toronto district and get schooled by Simbotics. Or I can stay home and drive 90 mins to my events. I get the best of districts and the adventure of travel.

That is FIRST's plan, during partner conferences this year a group of people worked on a unified district points and advancement system. One of the goals of that system was to eventually allow playing in other districts, because they are aware that some teams like to travel outside their area to play with a greater number of teams.