What we expect to see from FRC/FIRST in the next 5 years

[rsisk]

A curriculum for teachers incorporating FIRST robotics.

Serious competition to FRC style competitions

[Alan Anderson]

I expect to see FIRST try to tackle the VEX/FTC conflict. (However, I'm not sure I expect great things to result from the attempt.)

I expect to see FRC continue to grow, but ever more slowly, as sponsorship becomes harder for new teams to find.

I expect to see FIRST tinker with competition robot budget rules.

I expect some sort of initiative from FIRST HQ that is intended to help teams recruit mentors.

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

I'd love HQ to come out and say "Teams like 67, 1114, and 254? They get it!"

The Hall of Fame isn't a sufficient statement?

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Alan Anderson

The Hall of Fame isn't a sufficient statement?

Sufficient, perhaps. But not clear enough based on the amount of hate these teams have directed towards them.

[Joe G.]

Originally Posted by Alan Anderson

I expect to see FIRST try to tackle the VEX/FTC conflict. (However, I'm not sure I expect great things to result from the attempt.)

I think it's clear that they're already moving on this one, and to me, they're moving in a very smart direction, by not trying to "defeat" VEX outright, but compliment the VRC program.

Programs like VEX and FTC have always had a somewhat ambiguous purpose, as they attract two distinct classes of teams. The first is teams which, for any number of reasons, cannot participate in FRC. For students in these programs, VEX/FTC is the pinnacle of their high school robotics careers, and they take it very seriously as a result. Some may move onto FRC eventually, but the majority won't. These teams tend to choose VEX or FTC on the basis of cost, the curriculum options and classroom packages available, and the ease with which competitive robots can be built with relatively few students. VRC seems to have the clear advantage here. FIRST has not been able to match the VEX program on costs.

The second class of VEX/FTC team is the "feeder" team. This is a team closely associated with an established FRC program, or a team created the year before starting an FRC team, created primarily to give new members experience with robotics before tackling the big robots. Everyone involved with these teams knows that, while valuable, it's a stepping stone towards something larger. As a result, when deciding between programs, these teams weigh factors such as parallels in technical knowledge with FRC, ability to use manufacturing resources already available thanks to the FRC program, and the FRC/FTC joint world championship. Cost is less likely to be a pivotal factor, since these teams already have the resources to support a full blown FRC program.

When VRC got started, a whole lot of these feeder teams chose to move to VRC due to the investment in the VEX platform they had made in the FVC years. For the years following this, a lot of newly started feeder teams chose VRC on the relative merits of the VEX and Tetrix platforms. But starting last year with the expanded FTC material rules, things have started looking a lot more favorable for FTC for these teams. This change, of course, drives up the cost of FTC, making it even less favorable for the first type of team, making them even more likely to choose VEX.

The end result I see is, FTC establishes itself as the program of choice for FRC teams looking to build a feeder program. VEX, meanwhile, continues to exist and thrive as an alternative competition for places where FRC is impractical. Students in VRC get to compete for the title of Champions of the World with over 600 teams, rather than compete for Champions of the Side-Event with 100-odd teams. Meanwhile, FTC teams get to compete alongside their FRC parent-teams, and students are inspired to take the next step forward.

If I was starting a mid-size robotics program without a lot of money, to be run as part of a pre-engineering curriculum or as a couple of kids in a garage with an interest in this stuff, I'd choose VEX. Up until last year, if I was starting a mid-sized robotics program to help teach incoming freshmen the basics, I would have still chosen VEX. But based on changes FIRST has made, the answer for the feeder teams, to me at least, is clearly FTC for the first time since the 2009 season.

[waialua359]

I hope this is actually sooner. At CMP with so many teams and great robots in each division, allow 4 teams per alliance like IRI where you play any 3.
No need for timeouts and more teams make eliminations.

Originally Posted by Joe G.

perfect idea

If you know anyone involved high up in VEX and/or FIRST, please pass this on. I think this is a genius, and most correct, solution to the issue.

[ttldomination]

Originally Posted by Joe G.

The end result I see is, FTC establishes itself as the program of choice for FRC teams looking to build a feeder program. VEX, meanwhile, continues to exist and thrive as an alternative competition for places where FRC is impractical. Students in VRC get to compete for the title of Champions of the World with over 600 teams, rather than compete for Champions of the Side-Event with 100-odd teams. Meanwhile, FTC teams get to compete alongside their FRC parent-teams, and students are inspired to take the next step forward.

Not quite sure I agree on this accord. I see no reason why the FTC program is established as a "feeder" program vs. a VRC program, but perhaps that is a conversation for another thread.

The FIRST/VEX rift has been growing, and it only stands to expand with the launch of VIQ. At this point, I'm not even sure it's possible to bridge the divide, but competition is good for the community and watching VEX/IFI rise to challenge FLL/FTC has been exciting.

- Sunny G.

[DampRobot]

Originally Posted by ttldomination

The FIRST/VEX rift has been growing, and it only stands to expand with the launch of VIQ. At this point, I'm not even sure it's possible to bridge the divide, but competition is good for the community and watching VEX/IFI rise to challenge FLL/FTC has been exciting.

- Sunny G.

It's weird to say, but there might soon be a day when there's a Vex version of FRC.

Personally, although there are a number of things FIRST doesn't really do right, I'd much rather have a non-profit like USFIRST organize my robotics competition that a company like IFI. I have mixed feelings as to whether or not competiton will really improve things, as once you buy into either Tetrix or Vex, you tend to stick with that system.

[Joe G.]

Originally Posted by DampRobot

I'd much rather have a non-profit like USFIRST organize my robotics competition that a company like IFI.

Just to clarify, VRC is run by a non-profit organization, the RECF. VRC is run by IFI in the same way that FLL is run by The LEGO Group.

Originally Posted by ttldomination

Not quite sure I agree on this accord. I see no reason why the FTC program is established as a "feeder" program vs. a VRC program, but perhaps that is a conversation for another thread.

The FIRST/VEX rift has been growing, and it only stands to expand with the launch of VIQ. At this point, I'm not even sure it's possible to bridge the divide, but competition is good for the community and watching VEX/IFI rise to challenge FLL/FTC has been exciting.

- Sunny G.

Nowhere did I say that this would happen due to some kind of reunification effort. As I implied in my first post, I think one of the greatest things about VRC is that it gives the competition the grandeur it deserves, with much more generous advancement rules than FTC can have, and their own world championship on the scale of FRC's. I simply think that this is the direction the FTC and VRC programs will naturally gravitate towards over the coming years, due to the nature of the programs. Recent changes by FTC seem to suggest that FIRST is actively trying to fill the niche of feeder programs, by making robot rules more comparable to FRC and giving students FRC-relevant design experience, at the expense of program cost and accessibility.

However, if anything, "the rift" as you call it seems to have actually been narrowing in recent years (the low point to me was FRC 2011 Team Update 4). Some examples from the past few years include the VexPro launch and its embrace in the KOP, and IFI being given the Jaguar development by FIRST. I don't see VexIQ changing things that much either. It makes sense as a feeder program for the non-feeder VRC teams I outlined above, for many of the same reasons that FTC makes more sense as an FRC feeder. FLL, meanwhile, not only makes sense likewise as an FTC/FRC feeder, but is a veritable 20,000+ team juggernaut, with much more mass appeal than any other robotics program out there at any level, and one of the world's most recognizable brands behind it. It isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I'll end with this very wise post from Mr. Dave Lavery from a few years back. Even though we've grown, it still very much applies.

I have said it before, and I will say it again: If between them FIRST, IFI, BotBall, BEST, and PLTW are collectively dedicating even a single neuron firing to the contemplation of how to beat the "other guys," then collectively they are all fools.

Let's look at some reality. TSA will reach 150,000 students this year[1], the FIRST Robotics Competition will reach an estimated 41,000 students[2], Project Lead The Way manages to contact 500,000 students[3], BotBall touches approximately 5,000[4], and the VEX competitions add about 6,000 more[5]. That is a grand total of about 700,000 students involved in these programs today.

As of 2007, there are an estimated 16,400,000 high school students in the U.S.[6]. So collectively, these guys are affecting a grand, whopping, huge 4.2 percent of the U.S. high school student population. That is right – 4.2 percent. Over 95% of the current high school students in the United States are not engaged by any of them.

Given a potential market that is 25 times larger than the entire population currently served by these programs – and remembering that it has taken nearly 20 years for them to grow just to this point – the ONLY focus that anyone should have is how to reach that larger market.

The publicly-stated goal of each of these organizations is to provide inspiration and education on STEM topics to those that have not yet "seen the light." You don’t do that by trying to convince those already converted that your particular phrasing of the message is better. You do it by reaching out to those that have never heard the message in the first place. A little less time spent on turf wars, and a little more time spent on reaching the 95% of students who are oblivious to your existence, might be wise.

FTC and VRC will both grow to fill their niches, rather than one "beating" the other, I guarantee it. My post simply outlines a likely way in which I see that happening.

[Foster]

Originally Posted by Joe G.

I'll end with this very wise post from Mr. Dave Lavery from a few years back. Even though we've grown, it still very much applies.

FTC and VRC will both grow to fill their niches, rather than one "beating" the other, I guarantee it. My post simply outlines a likely way in which I see that happening.

Yes! Never too many Roboteers!

Along that line I'm excited about the new VEX IQ, radio controlled robots built with parts that at a distance bear a resemblance to Lego. For $300. So places that were/are under served by cost limits can now get into the game. Places that are limited by mentor skills in design and programing can now get into the game. More Roboteers!

Schools are facing a crisis with rising enrollments, plummeting budgets, teachers not being willing to put the 3.2 million hours of extra time in so after school programs suffer. So parents need to fill the gap.

I see FIRST (and RECF and the people that run all the other programs, BEST, Bunnybots?, etc) to start a 2 pronged approach:

1) Start a better innovation program with the new "soft" industries. Traditional mfg is down, there are lots of workers in the information processing companies. I have limited build skills, 2 years ago would never be able to build an FRC robot. Now with Andy Mark/IFI and others selling parts, I can take my trusty crescent wrench, two screw drivers an a ball peen hammer and off we go. This new set of parts allows FIRST to go into a "keyboard" companies and show them they can build robots too!

2) Districts, districts, districts! More competitions! Key is I think some bright person is going to figure out a way to allow cross district team events. (think Ed Law and Ether coming up with some 3D OPR calculation math magic)

Then I'm not always stuck in MAR WEST, getting crushed by Miss Daisy event after event, but I can go to MAR EAST and get stomped by the Pi-oneers as my "third district" event. Or make the big leap and go to the Toronto district and get schooled by Simbotics. Or I can stay home and drive 90 mins to my events. I get the best of districts and the adventure of travel.

More events means more robot play time for the dollar and adds value to the roboteer experience. And it also gives the public more of a chance to come see whats going on.

[Michael Hill]

I think we will eventually get into a "conference" or "league" type setup. Have an "Eastern" and "Western" (or however they decide to break it up) Conference. The top 100 teams from each conference goes to worlds making it a much smaller event with 50 teams/division instead of 100.

They could even break it up into 4 conferences (1 for each division at worlds) and the top 50 go on to worlds to compete with each other then with the other conferences.

[Dale]

There's been a few mentions of BunnyBots in this discussion which is gratifying. We've worked hard over the last five years building this program into what it is. BunnyBots is, however, very much a part of the FRC world. It's role is to be an engaging, low pressure introduction to FRC for new members in the fall by building FRC-class robots for an original game played on FRC-size fields using FRC legal parts and rules. The idea is that once you hit build season all of the team's members know what they are doing. It's been working exceptionally well in Oregon which is why other teams are exploring hosting one in their area.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Foster

2) Districts, districts, districts! More competitions! Key is I think some bright person is going to figure out a way to allow cross district team events. (think Ed Law and Ether coming up with some 3D OPR calculation math magic)

Then I'm not always stuck in MAR WEST, getting crushed by Miss Daisy event after event, but I can go to MAR EAST and get stomped by the Pi-oneers as my "third district" event. Or make the big leap and go to the Toronto district and get schooled by Simbotics. Or I can stay home and drive 90 mins to my events. I get the best of districts and the adventure of travel.

That is FIRST's plan, during partner conferences this year a group of people worked on a unified district points and advancement system. One of the goals of that system was to eventually allow playing in other districts, because they are aware that some teams like to travel outside their area to play with a greater number of teams.

[Libby K]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

I'd love HQ to come out and say "Teams like 67, 1114, and 254? They get it!"

They do; it's called the Hall of Fame.

That said, I think the HoF, as well as the Allaire Medalists and our Dean's List winners need a lot more recognition from the FIRST side. Why bother having a HoF if you're going to stick them in a corner at the Championship? These guys need a BIG presence on every stage we can give them.

Hopefully that will continue to get better over the next few years.

[apples000]

At CMP this year, the HoF teams were given their little tables in the corner, and few teams put up more than a brochure (except for 1114, they had a nice presentation), and many didn't put anything there at all. When I talked to the HoF teams about this, they told us that they weren't really interested in setting up a display in the corner if they weren't going to have a HoF pit, and most of them didn't even know that they would be getting any space at all.

FIRST needs to do something about this, if the HoF teams don't even know how much space they will be getting!