District Feasibility/Potential

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by AlexD744

On the topic of Florida districts:
I agree with James that Florida could feasibly pull off the districts with ~100 teams and districts spread similar to the way he described, on a similar timeline (~2016). I think as far as volunteer bases, it would be a softer transition than going directly to 10 events. Although it would be a slightly harder transition for the teams.

Also, with 150 teams, that means 300 "competing slots" as each team plays twice. At ~40 teams per district, that means only 8 districts to accommodate the number of teams suggested for transition.

Regarding timelines, here is the growth in FL FIRST teams since 1999. We will, assuming growth continues, hit 100 by 2017. (I used the average growth since 1999 since I couldn't find a trendline that made any sense).


I'd be more interested in seeing the amount of churn in teams. I've got the data to compute that I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Maybe tonight.

[dodar]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

Regarding timelines, here is the growth in FL FIRST teams since 1999. We will, assuming growth continues, hit 100 by 2017. (I used the average growth since 1999 since I couldn't find a trendline that made any sense).


I'd be more interested in seeing the amount of churn in teams. I've got the data to compute that I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Maybe tonight.

Churn in teams? Like team size?

[AlexD744]

Originally Posted by dodar

Churn in teams? Like team size?

I think he means, how many are lost and gained each year? But I say that reluctantly.

The growth chart is interesting... it's kind of all over the place.

Again, does anyone know what official talks have been had about Florida's future with districts, if any?

[dodar]

Originally Posted by AlexD744

I think he means, how many are lost and gained each year? But I say that reluctantly.

The growth chart is interesting... it's kind of all over the place.

Again, does anyone know what official talks have been had about Florida's future with districts, if any?

Of the states with a pretty good number of teams, I think Florida would be the last to go into the district system.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by AlexD744

I think he means, how many are lost and gained each year? But I say that reluctantly.

The growth chart is interesting... it's kind of all over the place.

Again, does anyone know what official talks have been had about Florida's future with districts, if any?

I mean how many of the teams are new each year. If we have 26 teams one year, 36 the next you'd naively assume that there were 10 rookies. Sadly, it's not. There's a lot of things more important to sustainable growth than looking solely at team numbers. Basically, that plot is a horribly bad way to look at growth and feasibility. I'll try to write up more of my thoughts when I'm not working.


And yeah, that was the point... that growth is all over.

[PayneTrain]

It's no coincidence that the areas that have moved over to districts and have concrete plans to evolve into the system are not only the oldest and most dense areas, but also areas that train major key volunteers that ship out to other regionals across the country and are integral to championships, and the areas with districts are anchored by their multiple HoF inductees.

Those of us who imagine a utopia where one could open the proverbial floodgates and let a low cost, high match-volume structure cover the earth and unleash a bountiful harvest of successful teams gloss over the fact we need the seeds of volunteers to grow the programs.

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by PayneTrain

It's no coincidence that the areas that have moved over to districts and have concrete plans to evolve into the system are not only the oldest and most dense areas, but also areas that train major key volunteers that ship out to other regionals across the country and are integral to championships

You mean like Koko Ed? That guy must have several clones...

On the topic of Florida Districts: Waiting for 150 teams is a bad idea, it just hurts when you try to do it with such a large mass.

I think FL is close to being ready; if planning starts now, 2015 seems reasonable. Trust me, although you may have a few nay-sayers, that disappears once the first District season has passed. The advantages far outweigh the disadvantages.

Just remember to be as transparent and inclusive as you can.

[dodar]

Originally Posted by DonRotolo

You mean like Koko Ed? That guy must have several clones...

On the topic of Florida Districts: Waiting for 150 teams is a bad idea, it just hurts when you try to do it with such a large mass.

I think FL is close to being ready; if planning starts now, 2015 seems reasonable. Trust me, although you may have a few nay-sayers, that disappears once the first District season has passed. The advantages far outweigh the disadvantages.

Just remember to be as transparent and inclusive as you can.

Oh wow, I didnt realize that MAR has only had 5 and 6 districts these last 2 years. For some reason I thought it was closer to 10. That does make it seem a little bit more feasible earlier on, but the team density of Florida vs MAR does seem quite a bit larger.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by dodar

Oh wow, I didnt realize that MAR has only had 5 and 6 districts these last 2 years. For some reason I thought it was closer to 10. That does make it seem a little bit more feasible earlier on, but the team density of Florida vs MAR does seem quite a bit larger.

For reference, in 2015 Florida will likely need between 5 and 6 districts based on my predicted growth. Placement of these would, logically, be done based off of team density in area. For reference, this year we would have needed 4 districts. Our Championship would, likely, be held at UCF but would more logically be in south Florida. However, to maintain parity with FiM's Championship on percentage of teams attending it would be (65/213) * 76 = 24 teams... Let's just say 40 teams to be safe... this means it could be held ANYWHERE a district could be held.

As for Florida vs MAR density, MAR is not as large a region as you'd think and they have as many teams as Florida. (source: I've spent a fair bit of time in those areas...also, a map)

Districts in a region is easily computed as CEILING((Teams * 2)/40).

[dodar]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

For reference, in 2015 Florida will likely need between 5 and 6 districts based on my predicted growth. Placement of these would, logically, be done based off of team density in area. For reference, this year we would have needed 4 districts. Our Championship would, likely, be held at UCF but would more logically be in south Florida. However, to maintain parity with FiM's Championship on percentage of teams attending it would be (65/213) * 76 = 24 teams... Let's just say 40 teams to be safe... this means it could be held ANYWHERE a district could be held.

As for Florida vs MAR density, MAR is not as large a region as you'd think and they have as many teams as Florida. (source: I've spent a fair bit of time in those areas...also, a map)

Districts in a region is easily computed as CEILING((Teams * 2)/40).

How do you figure it would be in South Florida when the bigger amount of teams are in Central Florida?

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by dodar

How do you figure it would be in South Florida when the bigger amount of teams are in Central Florida?

Last map I saw seemed to have a high density along the south east side of the state. Lemme check again.

Edit:
These are what I was looking at. 2013 FRC teams.
http://d.pr/i/VFfs
http://d.pr/i/6eAj

[dodar]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

Last map I saw seemed to have a high density along the south east side of the state. Lemme check again.

Edit:
These are what I was looking at. 2013 FRC teams.
http://d.pr/i/VFfs
http://d.pr/i/6eAj

Going off the OP's picture, there are 36 in Central Florida vs 23 in South Florida.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by dodar

Going off the OP's picture, there are 36 in Central Florida vs 23 in South Florida.

Define Central Florida. If you are counting the entire central corridor you're right. But that'd be silly as it's a much larger area. Of course, nothing looks like SE Michigan, New England, or MAR.

[IKE]

Originally Posted by DonRotolo

..... Trust me, although you may have a few nay-sayers, that disappears once the first District season has passed. The advantages far outweigh the disadvantages.
.....

I remember giving Don this exact same advice in 2011 at the Championship...

I was pretty freaked out in 2009. One of the neat things about doing more events are there are more volunteering opportunities. It is always a challenge to get all the folks you need, but I don't know too many FIRSTers that step down from a challenge.

[DonRotolo]

Originally Posted by IKE

I remember giving Don this exact same advice in 2011 at the Championship...

I was pretty freaked out in 2009. One of the neat things about doing more events are there are more volunteering opportunities. It is always a challenge to get all the folks you need, but I don't know too many FIRSTers that step down from a challenge.

Re-quoted for truth.

If you ASK folks to volunteer, especially alumni and even team members (at events the team isn't competing perhaps) people seem to step up. I found that many team members were "too shy" to volunteer but, when asked, are happy to do so and start doing it year after year.