YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2014's Week 1 Regionals/Districts

[Ian Curtis]

Mostly, this thread is so we can look back in eight weeks and realize how terribly wrong we were. Qualifying round is probably the most useful, but elimination scores are interesting to try and peg as well.

If you can post a reasoning that's awesome, but we'll take just a number as well.

Here's the reference to the last several year's of this thread, including how we've done..

Happy HURDL...TRUSSing!

[Christopher149]

Woo, first guess.

Well, if every robot on an alliance can drive in auto (15), say one robot can actually do anything otherwise, three cycles, shoots in high goal, say 30, then round up a bit.

50 pts

[Coin3]

I predict an average match score of 60.

As you said, I'm probably horribly wrong... nothing to go on, first day, no experience with the game yet. It's fun though!

My reasoning makes the assumption that 1/3 of teams will go for pure defense like I would like them to. This would result in less points being scored overall, yet more exciting matches.

[Akash Rastogi]

Week 1 prediction for average score per alliance in quals - 20, elims - 40 to 50

[Rangel]

Week 1 I'm going to guess the average will be around 15-20 points with eliminations averaging around 40. I think there will be plenty of week 1 matches that have alliances with over 100 though.

[StAxis]

Qualifications: 25
Eliminations: 80

[pntbll1313]

Originally Posted by Rangel(kf7fdb)

Week 1 I'm going to guess the average will be around 15-20 points with eliminations averaging around 40. I think there will be plenty of week 1 matches that have alliances with over 100 though.

I'm guessing much higher than that. Based on the logic that this year a technical foul is worth 50 points compared to 20, I think the GDC is assuming about a 2.5 times the average score of last year. I think that is a safe assumption. If all 3 robots simply drive forward 5 feet in autonomous that is already 15 points. If any of those robots is good enough to make a shot that would be another 15. My guess is 70 points for week 1 quals, 150 for elims. That would be about a 3 cycle match in elims (30ish auto) + 3 cycles*(40ish)

I still haven't really analyzed the game in depth yet. My guess will probably change in the coming days.

[Flimsor]

55! I think the added ones will average things out to a strange not so nice number, so I'm gonna round off.

[mrnoble]

I'll go significantly higher, not counting penalties. I predict 30 in autonomous, plus 80 in tele, for a pre-penalty score of 110 in seeding rounds. That's because even one well-designed and well-driven bot can score the majority of those points solo with four trips in 140 seconds.

Elimination rounds could go to the full 75 in auto occasionally, and to 200+ in tele. I think week one top score will be over 350 points.

[Nathan Streeter]

My predictions for week 1:

Qualification Match Winning Scores Average: 45 (in no small part due to fouls)
Qualification Match Losing Scores Average: 25

Elimination Match Winning Scores Average: 90 (about half auto, half tele)
Elimination Match Losing Scores Average: 60

For the most part I think defense will *really* slow alliances down... If you can make life really difficult for the robot that has the ball, the whole alliance's progress is essentially stopped.

That said, I think there will be some alliances in Week 1 that are quite good (3 "mobilities" in auto, 2 or 3 high balls in auto, and either 4+ cycles of 20 points or 3+ cycles of 30 points)... I expect that 150 will be broken week 1.

*I'm* really curious to see how my predictions turn out!

[Rangel]

Originally Posted by pntbll1313

I'm guessing much higher than that. Based on the logic that this year a technical foul is worth 50 points compared to 20, I think the GDC is assuming about a 2.5 times the average score of last year. I think that is a safe assumption. If all 3 robots simply drive forward 5 feet in autonomous that is already 15 points. If any of those robots is good enough to make a shot that would be another 15. My guess is 70 points for week 1 quals, 150 for elims. That would be about a 3 cycle match in elims (30ish auto) + 3 cycles*(40ish)

I still haven't really analyzed the game in depth yet. My guess will probably change in the coming days.

They may be a little low but I was just guessing based off what I've seen in the past. Lots of very small point games and even some 0-0 matches. Those will drop the average quite a bit.

[Bryce Paputa]

Michigan eliminations will see 150 easily.

[Anthony Galea]

Qualifications will be an average of 75 pts. each, and elims will be 100 pts.

[Ultimatum]

For Quals, I'd expect 2/3 robots to drive forward in auton, and not much else. Then, assuming a great deal of time is spent simply scoring the missed autonomous shots/dumps, I'd expect 1 in the high goal, 3 in the low goal, with two assists on the one cycled ball, no truss passes, for a total score of 43 on average.

[MrRiedemanJACC]

My guess for a week 2 in Michigan

A good single team will get:
25 points in Auto
5 cycles with no passes, just a throw over the truss to yourself and score in the 10 point goal. 5*20

That alone gives a team 125 points.

Let me know what I'm missing there though. And 5 cycles is a lot, but by yourself with no objects in the field. Definitely doable.

I am guessing that with passing / assists / possession bonus, the truss and catch the absolute max score could be 435 points for an alliance. That is assuming 6 cycles across the field. Is that a ludicrous score or can it happen? Let me know what you think, but remember if it can be done it will be done....