YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2014's Week 1 Regionals/Districts

[alextound]

190-80

[AWB]

good question,

so assume 2/3 of robots drive forward in auton: 10 pts
next, assume 1/6 of all robots can proficiently score high goal and of those, a quarter can get the hot goal: ~8 pts
then 5/6 can make the low goal: ~10 pts

as for teleop:
one cycle is about 5 sec for ball reset (getting ball from pedestal) plus 10 seconds to score and an extra 5 seconds for the 1/6 that will attempt the truss: that's 16 seconds and 2:20/0:16 is (calculating in fumbles) ~7 cycles per match of which, say, 1/2 are successful high goals and 1/4 are low, so that's ~37 pts for shooting alone.

Assists:
as above, assume 2/3 of shots make it into a goal
1/6 will make the throw over the truss, and 1/12 can catch it. no one does single assists and say 2/3 are doubles while 1/3 are triples
that would be... about 24 pts

so my final answer is about 90 pts
i'm probably way off though

[Zaque]

Originally Posted by AWB

1/2 are successful high goals and 1/4 are low

what happened to the other 1/4 of the cycles?

[Donut]

30 Points. Average alliances will get 15 points for driving forward in autonomous and struggle to score more than 1 point goals after that. Good alliances could put up monstrous scores but bad ones could easily get only 10 which will bring the average to around 30.

Elimination average could be much higher. If the typical alliance has just one reliable high goal scorer with two decent partners who can pass the ball I can see an average of 95 points with two cycles per match.

[dellagd]

I can't give a number, but I suspect significantly higher seeding scores. Above 100 for sure, at least in MAR (districts included)

[AWB]

Originally Posted by Zaque

what happened to the other 1/4 of the cycles?

those are failed goal attempts:
a failed attempt can be picked up but since it would take such a long time to physically pick it up again, you lost time to do a 7th (last) cycle

[pandamonium]

Wow these seem low to me. Three robots that can not even acquire or shoot should be able to do 2-3 cycles.

Average Qual score: 100

Average elimination score: 250

At least one match on Einstein or finals on one of the divisions will exceed 500 points.

There will also not be a huge degree of competition difference between World champs and IRI as there have been in some past games.

[JeffersonMartin]

50 for quals, 110 for elims. I see there being a huge disparity between random alliances and chosen ones.

[AllenGregoryIV]

I am thinking scores are going to be pretty high by mid season.

The low goal is pretty simple.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aynl11FRHHk

Nearly every alliance should get >=15 points in auton, since one driving robot can push a line of two other robots into their colored zone. No one ever said all three robots had to drive themselves into the zone.

If the referees are some what generous when giving out possessions alliances should be able to get at least one 3 assist cycle per match and finish it in the low goal for 31 points.

45-50 points seems relatively easy to me.

[Racer26]

I've already explained elsewhere why I think an elite team will be able to score about 150 pts by themselves, using their two alliance partners for defence.

In an average match:

I expect 90%+ of teams will be getting the 5 pt mobility bonus. 4.5 pts per team = 13.5 pts.
I expect 70% of teams will attempt high goal autons, and in wk 1, only about 40% of those attempts will be successful. = 15 * 0.7 * 0.4 = 4.2 pts per team, * 3 = 12.6 pts
I expect 30% of teams will attempt low goal autons, and in wk 1, only about 40% of those attempts will be successful. = 6 * 0.3 * 0.4 = 0.7 pts per team * 3 = 2.1 pts
HOT goals will be about 50% of the scored goals (which had 40% accuracy). 5 * 0.4 * 0.5 = 1 pt * 3 = 3pts.

At the end of auto, the average week 1 alliance will have 31.2 pts.

For the remainder of the match, the first 20s or so will be wasted clearing the field of the missed auto shots, probably 80% into the low goals. 3 balls * 60% of them missed = 1.8 balls. 80% of the time worth 1 point, 20% of the time worth 10 pts. (0.8 * 1)+(0.2 * 10) = 2.8 pts per ball * 1.8 balls = ~5 pts for this step.

Then a typical alliance will score maybe 3 cycles in the remaining 2 minutes of match.

Of those 3 cycles:

10% will be 3 assist cycles, 40% will be 2 assist cycles, 50% will be 1 assist cycles.
30% of cycles will have a truss toss.
2% of cycles will have a catch.
60% will eventually be scored in the low goal. 30% will eventually be scored high, and 10% will not score.

Assist Points (0.1 * 30)+(0.4 * 10)= 7 pts
Truss Points (0.3 * 10) = 3 pts
Catch Points (0.02 * 10) = 0.2 pts
Goal Points (0.6 * 1)+(0.3*10) = 3.6 pts
Cycle worth 13.8 pts * 90% of the time, 0 pts the remaining 10% = 12.42 pts /cycle * 3 cycles /match = 37.26 pts.

The average week 1 alliance will score 73.5 pts in a match.

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by Akash Rastogi

Week 1 prediction for average score per alliance in quals - 20, elims - 40 to 50

Oh wow, I completely neglected auton points.

With auton, in week 1 -

average qual - 35
average elim - 65 to 70

[Johhey]

I think the average score in the LOWEST of the depths of the seeding matches will be 15 form the given points. The highest score, probably from a qualification team, will somewhere around 90. Getting 30+ points per cycle isn't an impossibility, and there are going to be teams of perfect autonomous scoring.

[Racer26]

I don't understand why so many of you are predicting such crazy low scores. There is 15 pts per alliance available in auto literally for turning your drive motors on for a second or two. No reason ANY robot shouldn't be able to get those.

[Gregor]

Originally Posted by Racer26

I don't understand why so many of you are predicting such crazy low scores. There is 15 pts per alliance available in auto literally for turning your drive motors on for a second or two. No reason ANY robot shouldn't be able to get those.

Yep. Check out your match schedule and make sure every single one of your partners can do this. If they can't, help them. That won't take long at all.

[Sean Raia]

Originally Posted by Christopher149

Woo, first guess.

Well, if every robot on an alliance can drive in auto (15), say one robot can actually do anything otherwise, three cycles, shoots in high goal, say 30, then round up a bit.

50 pts

Typical optimistic overshoot.

35 points. Many robots wont even move on Friday.