YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2014's Week 1 Regionals/Districts

[Racer26]

As an extension to my previous post, lets calculate what I think the best alliances will be capable of.

In an average match:

I expect 100% of teams will be getting the 5 pt mobility bonus. 5 pts per team = 15 pts.
I expect 100% of teams will attempt high goal autons, and about 80% of those attempts will be successful. = 15 * 0.8 = 12 pts per team, * 3 = 36 pts
I expect 0% of teams will attempt low goal autons, 0 pts per team * 3 = 0 pts
HOT goals will be about 50% of the scored goals (which had 80% accuracy). 5 * 0.8 * 0.5 = 2 pt * 3 = 6pts.

At the end of auto, the average match of the 'best' alliance will have 57 pts.

For the remainder of the match, the first 10s or so will be wasted clearing the field of the missed auto shots, probably 80% into the high goals. 3 balls * 20% of them missed = 0.6 balls. 80% of the time worth 10 pts, 20% of the time worth 1 point. (0.8 * 10)+(0.2 * 1) = 8.2 pts per ball * 0.6 balls = ~5 pts for this step.

Then a 'best' alliance will score maybe 5 cycles in the remaining 2 minutes 10 seconds of match.

Of those 5 cycles:

100% will be 3 assist cycles, 0% will be 2 assist cycles, 0% will be 1 assist cycles.
100% of cycles will have a truss toss.
50% of cycles will have a catch.
0% will eventually be scored in the low goal. 90% will eventually be scored high, and 10% will not score.

Assist Points 30 pts
Truss Points 10 pts
Catch Points (0.5 * 10) = 5 pts
Goal Points (0.9*10) = 9 pts
Cycle worth 54 pts * 90% of the time, 0 pts the remaining 10% = 48.6 pts /cycle * 5 cycles /match = 243 pts.

The 'best' alliance will score 305 pts in an average match.

Max score I think is even potentially possible? 75pt auto, 7x perfect 60 point 3 assist cycles with truss/catch = 495 pts. A perfect auto, leaves you with 2:20 to play. 7 cycles is 20 seconds/cycle.