2014 District Point Model Analysis

[Navid Shafa]

Main Reference: 2014 Projected District Point System

Below are some VERY interesting graphs and stats from the 2/6/14 PNW District Webinar (Video):




^This graph was the most interesting. I'm currently working on a further analysis including the other newer district regions: MAR, NE and our friends in Canada

The Pacific NW webinar and these graphs inspired me to take my old model and apply the new point system and include average OPR:

PNW 2013

Rank	Team	Points	OPR	OPR Rank
1	1983	130	49.97	4
2	2471	130	52.50	3
3	948	116	65.44	1
4	360	96	31.79	17
5	1425	92	49.91	6
6	1899	89	49.94	5
7	3663	87	46.89	7
8	2046	84	15.58	63
9	1318	76	38.93	12
10	955	74	46.76	8
11	1540	73	26.77	28
12	2907	73	46.26	9
13	1595	70	32.37	16
14	2557	68	26.03	30
15	4089	68	7.83	97
16	2928	66	32.51	15
17	2733	60	21.57	44
18	4061	60	31.35	18
19	4579	60	42.94	10
20	3789	58	22.85	41
21	2930	56	12.28	79
22	3711	56	19.78	51
23	3812	56	53.77	2
24	4125	53	15.34	67
25	4205	52	24.97	34
26	753	48	3.78	117
27	2374	47	29.40	23
28	3219	45	14.42	73
29	4488	45	25.75	31
30	2605	44	28.22	25
31	4512	44	29.02	24
32	488	43	20.15	48
33	2147	43	23.46	40
34	4127	43	36.16	13
35	2635	42	15.40	65
36	492	41	23.48	39
37	3968	41	20.28	47
38	997	40	30.99	20
39	3131	40	12.54	77
40	2811	39	19.61	52
41	2990	37	29.84	22
42	3826	37	30.41	21
43	2412	36	19.98	49
44	4086	36	18.05	54
45	2522	35	26.22	29
46	4681	34	21.65	43
47	3574	33	17.00	57
48	2922	32	23.98	36
49	4772	31	3.46	118
50	2517	30	7.52	98
51	4030	29	23.72	37
52	1258	28	12.34	78
53	3238	28	34.92	14
54	2910	27	15.88	60
55	3681	27	19.07	53
56	847	26	26.91	27
57	4057	26	15.87	61
58	4077	26	15.92	59
59	1294	24	31.25	19
60	3693	23	17.99	56
61	4662	23	3.01	121
62	956	22	23.51	38
63	1359	22	25.26	32
64	2923	22	5.01	108
65	2929	22	22.79	42
66	4060	22	-1.95	140
67	4461	22	4.07	115
68	4495	22	9.85	89
69	4513	22	16.23	58
70	4652	22	15.33	68
71	4692	22	2.60	123
72	4542	21	8.26	94
73	4682	21	6.56	101
74	2944	20	2.73	122
75	2976	19	10.63	85
76	4726	19	2.58	124
77	2411	18	5.17	107
78	2915	18	5.37	106
79	4450	18	41.36	11
80	4560	18	13.13	76
81	4654	18	14.33	74
82	4683	18	15.35	66
83	4038	17	25.04	33
84	4120	17	13.28	75
85	4469	17	19.93	50
86	4457	16	-7.65	154
87	4548	16	3.09	120
88	4559	16	11.95	80
89	4608	16	-9.09	156
90	1510	15	0.96	131
91	2926	15	5.51	104
92	3995	15	-0.86	138
93	4043	15	10.26	87
94	4082	15	-0.56	137
95	4309	15	9.31	91
96	3221	14	8.15	95
97	3860	14	-0.42	136
98	4132	13	-4.35	150
99	4173	13	-2.55	143
100	4180	13	11.43	82
101	2093	12	10.65	84
102	3220	12	9.98	88
103	3587	12	-0.26	135
104	3588	12	21.24	45
105	3787	12	0.67	133
106	3674	11	1.37	129
107	4110	11	4.27	112
108	4304	11	0.84	132
109	957	10	-3.94	148
110	1432	10	9.28	92
111	1778	10	5.77	103
112	2002	10	5.87	102
113	2555	10	3.98	116
114	3268	10	15.11	70
115	3393	10	26.93	26
116	3684	10	20.36	46
117	3712	10	5.50	105
118	3781	10	14.51	72
119	3801	10	7.44	99
120	2521	9	4.26	113
121	2542	9	15.10	71
122	2660	9	8.08	96
123	4051	9	15.52	64
124	4105	9	-2.56	144
125	4131	9	0.97	130
126	949	8	4.69	111
127	2148	8	4.08	114
128	2149	8	24.46	35
129	2192	8	4.83	109
130	2550	8	15.71	62
131	2903	8	1.40	128
132	2906	8	4.72	110
133	2927	8	18.04	55
134	3223	8	10.41	86
135	3286	8	-5.54	151
136	3586	8	11.19	83
137	3813	8	-0.99	139
138	3576	7	9.71	90
139	3786	7	15.29	69
140	1571	6	3.19	119
141	2898	6	6.57	100
142	3024	6	-2.98	146
143	3070	6	-3.95	149
144	3192	6	11.83	81
145	3636	6	-2.47	142
146	3673	6	-2.84	145
147	3876	6	2.18	126
148	2942	4	1.95	127
149	2980	4	-3.05	147
150	3049	4	-2.40	141
151	3662	4	8.74	93
152	1823	3	-6.93	153
153	3575	3	-8.42	155
154	3218	2	-0.05	134
155	3831	2	2.38	125
156	3237	0	-5.84	152

*Teams underlined were Chairman Winners.


I graphed Teams and sorted by Rank, showing Points vs. OPR:


*I realize there is a lot of statistical noise. I also didn’t normalize the events.

With all of this in mind:

64 teams would qualify for the District Championship. 10 district Chairman winners, 54 taken from the point system ranking.

Points accrued at the District Championship are worth (3x) as much.
PNW would then send the following (24) teams to the World Championship:
-3 Winning Alliance Members
-3 Chairman’s Winners
-1 Engineering Inspiration
-1 Rookie All Star
-16 Teams based off of the District Point Ranking.

I love the fact that last year, our 156 teams made up slightly more than 6% of the 2509 world team count. This means that we would have filled 6% of the 400 Champ slots.

I really hope that when we are in an entirely unified District System that Regions get a percentage of slots based upon their relative size.

Along with the further analysis of regional representation, I am going to create a 2014 PNW District Point Database here.

I'm super excited for the new District System to play out in the PNW. Good luck teams!

[Lil' Lavery]

Where was the raw data for the first graph obtained? Is there somewhere where it's already compiled, or was it mined by an individual? How far back does it extend?

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Where was the raw data for the first graph obtained? Is there somewhere where it's already compiled, or was it mined by an individual? How far back does it extend?

I would like to know myself, I just shot Kevin a message on Facebook. If I can't obtain it, I plan on mining what I need myself to expand on graph 3.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Where was the raw data for the first graph obtained? Is there somewhere where it's already compiled, or was it mined by an individual? How far back does it extend?

My theory would be Zondag's spreadsheet would have most of this data.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Navid Shafa

64 teams would qualify for the District Championship. 10 district Chairman winners, 54 taken from the point system ranking.

Points accrued at the District Championship are worth (3x) as much.
PNW would then send the following (24) teams to the World Championship:
-3 Winning Alliance Members
-3 Chairman’s Winners
-1 Engineering Inspiration
-1 Rookie All Star
-16 Teams based off of the District Point Ranking.

I love the fact that last year, our 156 teams made up slightly more than 6% of the 2509 world team count. This means that we would have filled 6% of the 400 Champ slots.

Being on the District Championship winning alliance does not earn you an automatic spot at World Championship. It is highly likely that you will earn a spot with the points that you earn from being on the winning alliance, but it could be possible that the 2nd pick doesn't make the cut. This is done to give those teams from the Valleys of Doom a better chance of moving on and tries to minimize the chances of that 16th pick getting a ride on the coat tails of the #1 seed.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

My theory would be Zondag's spreadsheet would have most of this data.

Yes the data for the first graph is from data presented by FiM.

[Racer26]

Its interesting, but these graphs don't really show anything that anyone couldn't automatically tell you. #1 and #2 alliances are the strongest, and overreward 15th and 16th picks compared to their OPR.

The district model does a better job of ensuring the best robots go to CMP, and consequently, Michigan representation in CMP elims is more indicative of their size in the league.

[Steven Donow]

Originally Posted by Mr V

Being on the District Championship winning alliance does not earn you an automatic spot at World Championship. It is highly likely that you will earn a spot with the points that you earn from being on the winning alliance, but it could be possible that the 2nd pick doesn't make the cut. This is done to give those teams from the Valleys of Doom a better chance of moving on and tries to minimize the chances of that 16th pick getting a ride on the coat tails of the #1 seed.

This is incorrect. Winning District Championship does give you a bid to Champs. Those teams are then 'eliminated' in regards to looking at standings for the points-based slots.

[Nathan Streeter]

Very cool graphs! Comparing the first two graphs is definitely very cool... it really does show how much of an improvement the district system should make in sending good robots onward!

[Thad House]

Originally Posted by DevenStonow

This is incorrect. Winning District Championship does give you a bid to Champs. Those teams are then 'eliminated' in regards to looking at standings for the points-based slots.

Actually they told us in the last district meeting that winning the Championship does NOT get you an automatic bid to worlds. I don't really understand it, but if that's what they decided then that's what they decided.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by sst.thad

Actually they told us in the last district meeting that winning the Championship does NOT get you an automatic bid to worlds. I don't really understand it, but if that's what they decided then that's what they decided.

It's not automatic but the points involved typical result in it? /speculation

[alectronic]

That's correct. There is no automatic bid- but if you think about it, a winning team would be (assuming no backup bots) 30 points for winning multiplied by 3 for being a district championship. That's 90 points, which should be plenty to put that team in a good position to advance regardless.

[Nathan Streeter]

At least for New England, the winners at DCMP will move on to CMP automatically, as mentioned at the bottom of this link... http://www.nefirst.org/2014/02/04/ne...structure-faq/

I'm not sure if this is a global FIRST decision or an NEFIRST decision... I don't think it is mentioned in either this blog post (http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...Kickoff-Taping) or the official points supplement (http://www3.usfirst.org/sites/defaul...ng_System.pdf).

[Thad House]

For the lower seeds (5-8), it helps all 3 qualify. If you are the 3rd pick on a 1-4 alliance, that might not get enough points for you to make it, because if you face a 5-8 seed in the finals, all 3 of those bots will have more points then a 13-16th picked bot.

I will say this most likely won't happen, but if a team this year wins the championship but does not make it to worlds on points, I think there will be a huge outrage, and I will fight to make it so the winners make it to worlds, because thats how it should be no matter what.

[Jessica Boucher]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

At least for New England, the winners at DCMP will move on to CMP automatically, as mentioned at the bottom of this link... http://www.nefirst.org/2014/02/04/ne...structure-faq/

I'm not sure if this is a global FIRST decision or an NEFIRST decision... I don't think it is mentioned in either this blog post (http://www.usfirst.org/roboticsprogr...Kickoff-Taping) or the official points supplement (http://www3.usfirst.org/sites/defaul...ng_System.pdf).

This is the way I understand it - but I'm checking in on this. Thanks for the patience!