Predictions Week 1: Assisted Take-Off

[Looking Forward]

Looking Forward is back for the 2014 season. Unlike when Dr. Joe started the column back in 2007, there's now a wide variety of coverage about the competitive nature of FRC, spanning from Chief Delphi posts focused on particular regions to numerous video shows. With that in mind, the nature of Looking Forward will continue to change. On one end, I will no longer promise to talk about every single event each and every week, as the focus on the column will continue to shift towards broader topics and story lines that interest competitors across FRC. If you feel your event should have coverage, send in tips! Explain what's interesting about your event, and how it fits into the big picture of evolving strategy in Aerial Assist. Don't fret, though, with relatively few events, each of them are covered this week.

On the more positive note, LF is expanding into other areas. We are proud to announce the creation of a relationship with GameSense, including video content that will be unveiled on their show tonight. So tune in! Additional video content will be posted to the Looking Forward YouTube account. Right now there's a video up explaining a relatively basic strategy that should be popular in the early weeks of competition. This is an evolving part of Looking Forward, so stay tuned as we determine how to best translate our content to video, and what types of video the community wants to see. It should also improve as more game play video of Aerial Assist emerges. If you happen across particularly interesting video of strategy or designs, do not hesitate to send it our way.

With all that in mind, why don't we get on to what you want?

Aerial Assist is a game unlike what we've seen in FRC before. Limited scoring pieces, explicit bonuses for teamwork, the lack of an end game, and a slew of readily available designs and COTS parts will help shift the dynamic away from what we've come to expect. While parity has steadily increased for most of the 3v3 era, this year has the potential to greatly level the playing field. That's not to say that the good teams won't stand out, they absolutely will. Especially given that scoring will definitely not be as easy as teams make it look in their reveal videos. Expect a lot of missed shots and loose balls, especially during the first week of the season. Teams are going to take a while to translate what they did in their shops to the real field during an actual match, and many won't be able to do it at all.

With a completely open field and no protected zones, expect plenty of contact and defensive play. For the first time, what teams do "away from the ball" will become tremendously important, just as it is in soccer, basketball, lacrosse, and hockey. Many alliances will be forced to muck out victories, rather than glide to them through incredible offensive performances. There's always room for role players in FRC regional competitions, but their roles will be heightened this year. Robust design and attention to detail will be tremendously important. Little things, like being able to provide a pass with the right amount of kinetic energy to allow a clean acquisition or being able to field a clean inbound from a human player will make tons of difference.

• With a large majority of teams opting to build lauching mechanisms, it will be interesting to see how much the teams that lack them stand out. There's no guarantee that not being able to shoot will make a team a better passer, defender, or catcher than teams that can score in the high goal, but the distinctions in strategy and design may draw these teams additional attention anyway. While there will be teams at every event who opted not to shoot (including Raider Robotix), the Granite State district may provide the best example of how robots designed for supporting roles may fair in 2014, with 95, 1519, and 2084 each forgoing the ability to shoot the ball.
• The scarcity of goalies, especially well constructed ones, may the biggest factor in why they likely won't play a particularly huge role at most Aerial Assist events. When present, though, they have the potential to change the game play dynamic a lot. Full court shooters didn't always win in 2013, but effective ones forced the other alliance to react to them and set the strategy for the match.
• While autonomous starting points and maximizing the viable scoring area led many teams to focus on scoring from distance, 1189 is an example of a team who went a different route. Watch to see how their high goal scoring from immediately in front of the 1-point goal impacts the strategy of teams on both alliances.
• 1806's reveal video featured clips of them receiving a ball directly over their bumpers and into their catapult mechanism. Given their low profile, just about any robot that can release over their bumpers should be able to pull this move off. Central Illinois may help reveal how practical or useful this will be. It's certainly one of the more novel approaches to playing a passing game that never puts the ball on the ground.
• SWAT isn't the only team competing in that inflatable dome with an unusual passing method. 2481 opted to use their catapult as a passing method, with a lower power option to let the ball roll onto the ground in front of them. While their scoring and wide angle intake will likely be bigger factors in their run for their first ever regional victory, it will intriguing to watch one of the more atypical passing methods in play.
• The unrelenting winter hit a lot of areas hard this year. Even areas prepared for snow lost time; with many Michigan schools closing for wind chill concerns. The Center Line district will be particularly hard hit, with it's large group of Michigan Engineering Zone, which helps some of the lesser privileged Detroit teams, teams missing significant time. Even if the usual suspects, like 217,494, 910, 1718, and 3539 come out with great robots, expect some lower scores than you're used to seeing from a Michigan event.
• In general, the massive quantity of rookies in Michigan will impact events all over the state. More than 80 teams in the state, or roughly 30% of all of the teams in Michigan, will be competing for the first time ever. In a game as focused on teamwork and cooperation as Aerial Assist, this has the potential to drag down the qualification round (and some elimination) scores. At least prior to MSC, that is.
• 2014 marks the 10th year of the Israel Regional. The area has come a long way since 1574's domination of early events, but still expect Miscar to be a contender. They've won the event five times, and were a finalist in each of the past two years. 1657 and 1690 each have three wins in four finals appearances, and should be right up there with Miscar.
• Israel will also be an event to watch for fans of kinetic energy. 3316 and 3339 both use swinging hammers to eject the ball. D-Bug's intake should be significantly more effective, and if they can stay functional, stand a good chance at advancing past the semi-finals for the first time in their team's history.
• It will be interesting to see if a breed of trussing specialist emerges over the weeks. Two potential options in week one are 346 in Palmetto and the hosts of the Hatboro-Horsham event, 708. Both have soft lobs that seem very easy to catch. Both can also notch 10 pointers from close to the goal, as well, but their easily caught truss shots should be what sets them apart. Hardwired Fusion has the more upside of the pair.
• There are bots that can catch, and then there are bots that are clearly designed to catch. 33 (Southfield), 1024 (Palmetto), and 95 (Granite State) are among the latter category. All three should have little trouble making the eliminations, but the Killers Bees will have to rely on their catching less than the other two to stand out.
• The Killers Bees aren't the only team at Southfield to reach Einstein last year. Coming on the heels of the two most successful years in team history, expectations have risen for 862. While they'll be among the better teams at the event, it won't be easy for them to stay ahead of teams like 51, 573, 2474, and 3098.
• 1676 and 11 have been the most consistently competitive teams at the Mt. Olive district in recent years, and enter the event with the highest expectations. But 56, 193, 222, 1403, and 1923 should be able to keep the pressure up.
• Between 2001 and 2008, the only year the Cybersonics failed to win a regional was 2004. Ever since losing a spectacular finals series in the 2008 Philadelphia regional, though, 103 hasn't been able to break through. Since then, they've reached the finals at one event each year, but ended up losing them all. 103's signature welded titanium is back in full force in 2014, and they hope it can help them capture gold once again.
• There's absolutely no doubt that Miss Daisy produced their best robot ever for Rebound Rumble, but an ambitious design resulted in a lot more trouble for 341 in 2013. With even more changes in store for 2014, in the form of a new head mentor and drive coach, it's not set in stone that 341 will come out firing on all cylinders at their first event. But having won nine of their last twelve regional or district events, it would be foolish to count them out, even if they're not fully functional. The bar for them is set unreasonably high for a reason.
• Auburn-Mountainview, not be confused with the plain old Auburn district a month later or Auburn Hills (home of the Killer Bees), marks the start of districts in the Pacific Northwest. Without the luxury of a full Thursday, many teams will have missed out on vital practice and debug time. 2046 boasts a seemingly simple machine, but practice and experience are certainly in their favor. After losing a heart breaker of a finals at the Central Washington regional last year by one disc, 360 and 2557 are back together again at two events. If they enter eliminations together, watch out.
• On the heels of captaining an alliance to Einstein, the Citrus Circuits won a slew of California off-season events. With regional victories in each of the past three years, 1678 is forcing their way into the conversation of the top tier California teams. They've been tweaking their three ball autonomous in their shop for two weeks, and have a good chance to start out 2014 with a bang at Inland Empire.
• Hatboro-Horsham has rather quietly become one of the more competitive events in FRC. Even if it lacks some of the top tier firepower of particular events in Michigan, Ontario, Texas, and California, it's usually a very deep and well-rounded event. This year should be no different. Two of the reigning Newton champs (303 and 1640) will be among a field that includes members of Einstein alliances in 2012 (25), 2011 (2016), and 2009 (1218). Not to mention two Hall of Fame teams (103 and 341) and rising stars 2590 and 2729. But what usually sets this event apart is how good the 20th ranked team is for a week one event, not the number one seed.
• With a lot of controversy surrounding "copying" designs in Aerial Assist, many teams have been unfairly branded clones of Simbot SS. You could apply such a label to 1986, but Team Titanium should act as the proof that attention to detail and differences in subtle elements will make all the difference. They spout a bevy of features that 1114 didn't in 2008, and that many of their counterparts in 2014 lack as well. Their passive pusher bar, mecanum wheel intake, LED driver feedback, and focus on being able to rack up assist points will set them apart from many of their peers. A finish without a medal in week one for 1986 would be shocking.
• Ultimate Ascent was about as phenomenal of a season for Ontario as could have been imagined. Two world champions and three of the four IRI winners call the province home. GTR-West will be the first litmus test to see if the region can maintain its superpower status in 2014. It's not the most stacked event, but a pair of defending world champs (610 and 1241) headline the field, and 188 and 1310 shouldn't be far behind. But with 24 of the 30 teams at the event reaching the eliminations in a teamwork-centric game, it may be a team with a number above 4000 who makes the difference.
• Unfortunate scenarios forced 188 to miss out on Ultimate Ascent. While they were away from FRC, they managed to win their division at the VEX World Championship, so I wouldn't put much money on them being rusty. Expect Blizzard to pick up right where they left off at GTR West this weekend.
• Three of the biggest names in Texas will be drawn into a showdown in Alamo. 118, 148, and 624 each have the firepower to be the top team at many events this weekend. The Robowranglers are probably the best pure finisher of the trio, with their quick release, accurate on-the-fly shooting, and ability to toe the line to get the third assist. But the Robonauts and Team Cryptonite possess more strategic flexibility and may mesh better with a wider variety of teammates. This event will underline an interesting dynamic that will evolve as the season progresses. Just how well will the powerhouse launchers be able to carry the load? With 64 teams at the event, will there be enough parity for a mid-tiered launcher on a well put together alliance to pull off an upset?

Remember, there's no way to cover every event or team in the detail we'd like to. These predictions are designed to cover a broad range of topics and interest everyone. If you don't like them, go out there and prove them wrong!

Good luck, and enjoy week 1!

[Chris is me]

I'm pretty sure 1519 has the ability to shoot the ball. It might not quite be very far, but I know they've been working on increasing their range. I believe they have a linear shooter powered by CF springs.

Great to see these predictions back, looking forward to more.

[Pjohn1959]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

[*]Three of the biggest names in Texas will be drawn into a showdown in Alamo. 118, 148, and 624 each have the firepower to be the top team at many events this weekend. The Robowranglers are probably the best pure finisher of the trio, with their quick release, accurate on-the-fly shooting, and ability to toe the line to get the third assist. But the Robonauts and Team Cryptonite possess more strategic flexibility and may mesh better with a wider variety of teammates. This event will underline an interesting dynamic that will evolve as the season progresses. Just how well will the powerhouse launchers be able to carry the load? With 64 teams at the event, will there be enough parity for a mid-tiered launcher on a well put together alliance to pull off an upset? [/list]

Woo-hoooo. LF is back!


Don't forget to throw in FRC teams 190, 2468, and 2936. I can see some really competitive elimination matches on Saturday.

[Racer26]

GTR-West is going to be a great show. A lot of Ontario's heavy-hitters are in attendance (but not our heaviest two).

Its really unfortunate what's had to happen with its venue, and not allowing spectators or more than 30 members per team. GTR-West at this venue is geographically the closest event to around 50 teams.

It is guaranteed to mark the first time that a regional in Ontario didn't count either 1114 or 2056 or both as one of its regional champions since the 2005 Waterloo Regional.

Which 3 will it be? I have NO IDEA how to predict, even having seen video of many of the robots in attendance. Aerial Assist is a game so different to past FRC games. There really does seem to be a pretty hard ceiling on robot performance. All of the top and second tier teams I've seen reveal videos for are all showing fairly similar capabilities. I haven't seen any robots that I would say are going to play this game dramatically better than others. It's going to come down to strategy and driver practice.

I think we are going to see a lot more lower seeded alliances winning events this year because of this. It's going to be much easier to build a #2-6 alliance that can hang with the #1 this year than many in recent memory.

[Link07]

So many great MAR teams playing week 1

[P.J.]

Every time we're mentioned by Looking Forward, I get a warm fuzzy feeling inside.

And don't count the MEZ teams out yet, I've learned over the years that they can surprise you.

[Nathan Streeter]

I'm also very glad to see LF back!

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

While there will be teams at every event who opted not to shoot (including Raider Robotix), the Granite State district may provide the best example of how robots designed for supporting roles may fair in 2014, with 95, 1519, and 2084 each forgoing the ability to shoot the ball.

I hate to nit-pick, but Chris is right... we do actually have a launcher, which is a Constant Force spring launcher with winch pull-back. We didn't have it at Week-Zero, as our practice robot/1st iteration (which we brought) didn't have a working launcher. We plan to be doing plenty of shooting at Granite State though!

[JosephC]

I for one am very excited to see 3098 at Southfield, they usual make great robots and last year was a bit of a let down; so its time for a comeback.

[Akash Rastogi]

The two MAR district events seem packed! Really excited to see predictions are back!

[Squeakypig]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

[*]The unrelenting winter hit a lot of areas hard this year. Even areas prepared for snow lost time; with many Michigan schools closing for wind chill concerns. The Center Line district will be particularly hard hit, with it's large group of Michigan Engineering Zone, which helps some of the lesser privileged Detroit teams, teams missing significant time. Even if the usual suspects, like 217,494, 910, 1718, and 3539 come out with great robots, expect some lower scores than you're used to seeing from a Michigan event.

Team 3539 will not be competing at Centerline. Their first event will be Waterford week 5.

[JB]

Thanks for the shout out. I do have to say that 222 has been the most consistent and highest performing team at MO, winning in both 2012 and 2013. From what I have seen this year from them I would expect them to continue the trend.

[S.P.A.M.er 17]

I haven't finished reading the whole post yet, but it is a great read so far. I just wanted to post a quick suggestion before I forget. Perhaps when you discuss a robot, you could hyperlink their number to a particular video showing off what you are talking about. Every time you mentioned a team, I quickly switched to youtube to see if I could find anything about that robot. Knowing whether or not you found a particular video that shows off their features would be nice. ("Look team X has a video, let me watch that. Oh, there isn't a good video for team Y, I'll look them up after I finish reading the post").

[geomapguy]

Think Alamo will be interesting..

Of 118, 148, 190, 624, and 2468:

At least two of these teams will partner up and win...

[Anupam Goli]

2614 and 1024 looked really solid today at Palmetto. I expect 3824 and 3489 to heat up tomorrow. Hopefully we'll see some interesting matches.

[Jon Stratis]

Great predictions! I'd love to see a prediction for next week's second annual Double DECCer one-game, winner take all playoff between the winning alliances of the Lake Superior and Northern Lights regionals. Last year Lake Superior pulled out a win, despite some awesome full court shooting from Northern Lights, something that wasn't present at all at Lake Superior.