FIRST in Michigan: 2014 Season Preview

[FiM Informer]

Guess who’s back, back again, FiM Informers back, Tell a friend

Weather: The big story of the 2014 build season was weather, in Michigan and across the continent. With wave after wave of snow atop snow, plus cold and bitter temperatures, it seemed like high schools had snow weeks instead of days. For teams that work out of high school shops, the so-called “Polar Vortex” was a truck on the camel’s back, pausing all activity until school districts felt it was safe enough for students to return to school. This effect will be felt by most of the schools in Michigan and especially prevalent at the Center Line District this weekend, where 15% of teams are affiliated with the Michigan Engineering Zone, which closed for many days during build, leaving a number of teams with just working drivetrains and a lot of work to come.

Bad news for many, however, was good news for some. Teams that were allowed by their district to meet despite snow days turned short weekday meetings after school into daylong build sessions. We may see a gulf in polish between these fortunate teams and their less fortunate partners, particularly in these early weeks. Hopefully the bigger withholding allowance will decrease this effect; 45 lbs should be enough for many teams to hold back and improve two primary mechanisms.

State Grant and Shifting Demographics: Weather isn’t the only factor that will change the way the game is played in Michigan this year. The State of Michigan offered a $3 million dollar grant to support rookie teams, veteran teams, and team coaches. This resulted in a Texas-sized explosion in new Michigan teams: over 90 rookie teams will compete in the state, with 81 receiving $9,000 in state money. While large growth is in the long-term interests of FRC and FiM, growth on this large a scale will tax Michigan’s volunteers and hurt sustainability efforts.

(As an aside for those interested, there was no public discussion of a grant, and the money was added in conference committee as a result of closed-door meetings by the majority party. We may never know who to thank for the grant. If it was the result of a particular team’s lobbying efforts, expect them to be very happy during the MSC Awards Ceremony.)

Such growth in the state has increased the # of districts from last year’s 11 to a grand total of 15 events, with 3 being played each of the last 2 weeks. Though the top level teams in Michigan will continue to be high-quality, this year’s talent diffusion means that those who expect depth at Michigan districts up to the level of previous years will be sorely disappointed. While this week’s events have relatively low rookie concentrations, two of Michigan’s new districts will have nearly half their attending teams be rookies: Lansing (17/37) and Midland (19/40). The onus will be on the events’ elite teams, 33 and 67, among others, to reach out to and support the rookies.

Historic Changes in the Game: With weather troubles and rookie strains, the big changes in the game this year might have been overlooked by some. For the first time in years, the GDC has changed the field size (2’ thinner) and the structure of the game. Autonomous mode is 5 seconds shorter and includes a mobility bonus any team can accomplish. With the shorter auton, a longer overall game (2:30 instead of 2:15), and, most dramatically, the lack of an endgame (secret or otherwise), the teleoperated mode has expanded dramatically, to the benefit of quick-cycling teams.

Auton: We can cry over this game’s excitement deficiency or we can get with the times. Here’s one thing that hasn’t changed: auton is as important as ever. Many spectators will obsess over the flash of multi-ball autonomous modes, but in the early weeks, the average alliance will need to work to overcome the dismal reality that many alliances will never get out of autonomous mode. To succeed in qualifications, these alliances need to focus on getting their cycles started to start building up assist points; that’s where the points are and that’s the first standings tiebreaker. This should lead to teams who can not score leaving balls off the field just to start cycles in a quicker fashion.

Assists: Assists are what’s new, and they are fabulous. While one elite team can still dominate a match, assist points give above-average robots a fighting chance. Triple assist cycles are high-risk and high-reward. They maximize the number of chances your opponent has to divert your ball from your goals, but with a 20 point third assist in the balance, it might just be worth it. They may function like triple-balances in 2012: rare and clinching in early weeks, but a near necessity for success at the end of the season, especially come MSC.

Underdogs: At deep events, low-ranked teams may put together alliances of 3 good robots and stand a chance against high-seeded alliances with 2 greats and a Brave Little Toaster. 3 good robots can complete a higher quality cycle, and if the opponents’ two great robots spend all their time on offense, that’ll leave a well-rounded alliance few obstacles to putting up big scores. At the very least, expect events that reach a “critical mass” of 16+ good teams (which may not happen early on in Michigan this year) and have a relative dearth of elite talent to field “scrappy underdog” 7th and 8th alliances.

Pickups: What makes a robot great this year will be hard to determine with so many shared and common designs. Pickups this year, for example, have mostly converged on “Build Blitz” Roller Bars and the “el Toro” design. The Simbot SS look-alikes have relatively smaller pickup widths, but this isn’t a game where robots are trying to pick up many balls at once (like 2009 or 2012). Any type of pickup can be effective, even ones I didn’t expect to see, like roller claws.

Launchers: No ball launching design seems to dominate either. Shooters powered by motors, pneumatics, or elastic potential energy can all be consistent and effective. Some of these launchers will be more dangerous than others, though! Teams with stored elastic energy should do their best to limit their chance of an accidental discharge. They’ll want to avoid any close calls and should prepare for close inspections.

Drivetrains: This one oft-overlooked robot feature may make the difference in the matches that count the most. This game has a longer teleop, which means more driving around, and it has only one game piece per alliance. This means each alliance will have at least one robot with no offensive responsibilities at all times. Defense will play its biggest role in match strategy since the early 2000s, and teams that hope to score will need to avoid it.

Recent trends point to speed as the best way to avoid defense, but for the first time since 2010, there are no teleop protected scoring zones. High-speed collisions, on this wide open field, will be a regular occurrence. Teams that require line-up time will have to withstand defense when it comes at them. These dual needs explain the boom in shifting drivetrains, both between gears and between wheel types. 4WD Traction will be a rare commodity.

Catchers: Like a makeshift drivetrain, a quick-and-dirty catching mechanism just won’t do. Catching is hard. The average team’s 5 sq ft isn’t enough real estate to make consistent catching a viable option. Teams that expand outside the frame perimeter can more than quadruple their effective catching area, a major boon. All teams attempting to catch will also need to deal with bounce-out from high-arcing balls.

The difficulties of getting catching points are more than the catching mechanism. The shooter needs to be both precise and accurate, the catching driver needs to be prepared to make adjustments to get underneath the ball, and both teams need to avoid defense. As a defender, even a small turn in the shooter will send the ball feet away from the intended target, or a small movement in the catcher means they can’t make the required adjustments. Catching will require timing, driver skill, and chemistry that’ll be rare in the early weeks of the season.

Defense: Defense has been a strategy used in every game FIRST has ever had. Last year we saw the year of the pool noodle defense; there was also the keep away defense used in many years like 2008, 2010 and 2012, and the type-starvation method used in 2011. Goalies, specifically allowed in this year’s rules, will be interesting to watch. The singular game piece per alliance this year, may benefit the goalies. Having to just follow one robot and try to predict where it will go is feasible, so blocked shots might just happen (it could look surprisingly similar to teams trying to block 469’s shots in 2010). We could also see some mangled goalies if powerful shots go awry and target the goalie robot by accident. In the end, though, it’s difficult to say whether deflection devices will be effective. Balls that hit blockers off-center will have a chance to roll off and get into the goal anyway, and smart strategists will call pick plays on effective goalies to get them out of the way.

With as many as 4 robots not handling a game piece at once, this game has a lot of opportunity to have defense and counter defense going on at the same time. Who does what when the ball moves from one alliance partner to the next? Roles will be continuously changing throughout each match.

Trussing: Truss points will abound. The human player truss catch, depicted in several reveal videos and at some week 0 events, may be the way to go. Alliances will be loath to give up control of the ball; this is a great method to avoid it. For some elite teams, the best strategy in qualifications will be to go it alone offensively and make those truss points ½ of the per-cycle points. Despite partner objections, these elite teams will want to maximize score by minimizing the time their less skilled partners handle the ball.

The partners to those elites are in a lose-lose situation. If they don’t protest, they’ll have less of an opportunity to showcase their abilities. However, if they do object, they risk being labelled uncooperative. In a game where collaboration is key, it’s the alliances with chemistry that will succeed. Further, those teams who play well with others will be rewarded come alliance selections.

How to win: More than ever before, this FRC game be determined not by whose robot is best, but by which alliance can most effectively execute their mutually agreed upon strategy. Getting partners to field specific roles that complement your robot is key. If you’re a great shooter, you might want catching and ball handling, any combination that’ll best suit you.

The best part about FiM, and FRC in general, is the innovation, the week to week changes and improvement of teams. What will be the strategies that will succeed? What type of robots will be most feared? Will the weather continue to play a factor? One thing for sure is that we will only know by getting out there and competing. For those going to Centerline and Southfield districts, enjoy what Michigan has to offer in week 1, and I’ll see you there.

[Nathan Streeter]

Great post! A ton of good insight in there!

I'm definitely also curious to see what the "typical" qualification match strategy will be for elite teams... Will they do 20pt cycles by themself? Will they instead mix in double and triple assists? Will they vary strategy significantly? It'll be very interesting to watch...

I'm also curious how prevalent tasks like catching will be. Any coordination between partners can be difficult (and this game is all about coordination!)... and catching is almost definitely the hardest single task to coordinate!

[tr6scott]

Great Summary!