2014 OPR After Week One Events

[Ed Law]

The OPR/CCWM numbers have been posted, please see

http://www.chiefdelphi.com/media/papers/2174

There are a number of points I would like to make:

1) Even though week one events are not completed, I am publishing this because there was a minor problem with the macro. It is now fixed. I also fixed some minor bugs.

2) Team Standings for Centerline is not posted on FIRST website. I posted what the FTA gave me but I am not certain the subscores are in the right columns. There were only two columns in the FTA report and I guess they are for Autonomous points and Teleop points. I will update them once the Team Standings are posted on the FIRST website.

3) We already broke the 100 mark for OPR. Congratulations Jim.

If you find any error or have any questions, please let me know.

[Jim Zondag]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

We already broke the 100 mark for OPR. Congratulations Jim.

Thanks Ed, although I do not believe that the OPR numbers truly reflect teams' ability properly because of the penalty results being included in the Teleop numbers. The 50 pt technical fouls are big enough to skew the OPR results. There were matches at Southfield with up to 150 points in penalties per side. We will go through today using the twitter feed data to remove the penalties and recompute. I suspect our actual OPR is more like 90.

Someone should attempt to build this feature into one of the various OPR calculators. Without this, the 2014 OPR data will lack integrity (unless, of course, if the GDC fixes the broken penalty rules).

[efoote868]

Originally Posted by Jim Zondag

Thanks Ed, although I do not believe that the OPR numbers truly reflect teams' ability properly because of the penalty results being included in the Teleop numbers.

Would anyone like to speculate on how OPR fits true robot scoring abilities or alliance contributions this year compared to previous years?

One thing I see that is different this year is that any particular alliance can do much better (or much worse) than the sum of the individual teams since robots can't do their own thing for an entire match.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Jim Zondag

We will go through today using the twitter feed data to remove the penalties and recompute

I have a script that can do that quickly. I'll run the numbers and post here.

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by Ether

I have a script that can do that quickly. I'll run the numbers and post here.

I will update my macro to remove the foul points and recompute the OPR. Ether, can you send me the twitter data that you use or post it here so our numbers will match?

[IKE]

I think it will be decent this year if penalties are removed. Of course, this would remove the "power" of a design that is good at drawing penalties (think taking a drive in basketball). After watching how some events were officiating, Robowranglers 2008 bot could have been the highest scoring bot this weekend...

Defense is also has an incredible amount of influence. For first timer events (most regionals and 1st round of districts ie weeks 1-3), defensive play usually does not develop well until rounds 3-5. This causes a shift in scoring ability which OPR does not handle well (it assumes even play throughout). This will be more accurate in later season events where Defensive play starts earlier.

The District/State Championships will likely see OPR growth in qualifying similar to 2010. In 2010, 3 bots that were 2s would get together and put up 8-9 pts. 2011 was the opposite, and thus 3 60 pt. bots would only get 135.

I say likely as the defense at District Champs and State champs will also likely increase. 2010 defense was very difficult and not terribly effective where as 2014 defense is much more obvious and effective. Teams at these events will also likely have the ability to muti-task. IE, Inbound, and then play strong defense. So it is really a question of "Can in the improved coordination among good teams outpace drivers defensive abilities"... We ahve several weeks to watch this develop.

My $0.02 is scoring OPR will not be as accurrate as 2008, 2010, or 2012 (adj.), or 2013 but likely on par with 2011 and better than 2009.

************************************************** *******
Now calculating Penalty OPR will likely be a very valuable tool for 2nd round district events and Championship. HINT, if your teammate is average 1 50 pt. penalty a match, you might want to have a talk before the match starts....

I suspect some adjustment by GDC to the big penalty contributors which will likely put an * next to week 1 OPRs.

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

I will update my macro to remove the foul points and recompute the OPR. Ether, can you send me the twitter data that you use or post it here so our numbers will match?

Attached is my OPR calculation with and without foul points, based on Qual matches only, from Twitter data as of Saturday March 1 at 20:22:36

659 matches

360 teams

[Anthony Galea]

For some reason, when I type my team (3175)'s number into the query, it doesn't show the numbers. Can someone point me in the right direction?

[Navid Shafa]

Originally Posted by 3175student17

For some reason, when I type my team (3175)'s number into the query, it doesn't show the numbers. Can someone point me in the right direction?

Data hasn't been aggregated yet. You can view data on individual event tabs at the bottom.

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Ether

Attached is my OPR calculation with and without foul points, based on Qual matches only, from Twitter data as of Saturday March 1 at 20:22:36

Thank you for this.

Can someone make a quick plot of Ether's qualifying match OPR (without foul points) vs. seed rank?

[Jim Zondag]

OPR Distribution for unpenalized score data set Week 1 from Ether.
Distribution follows typical FRC trends as expected.
This appears to a game independent phenomenon, it is essentially the same in every FRC game I have ever studied. The game design affects the scale and the zero crossing point, but the curve shape is always pretty much the same. The GDC does not seem to realize this when they set the penalty scaling.

Count = 360 Teams,
Average Score = 19.0
Median score = 13.1
Max OPR = 91.6 (Go Bees! )
Min OPR = -13.0
STDev = 19.6
SNR = -0.3

The Average OPR is less than one standard deviation above zero.
A single technical foul is worth more than 2 matches worth of average team contribution. This is completely out of scale with what is appropriate for penalty scaling.

[Ian Curtis]

Jim beat me to it, but here is a comparison of the distribution with and without fouls.

[fovea1959]

does it matter that a bunch of data from Southfield elims didn't get into the twitter feed?

[Jim Zondag]

Originally Posted by fovea1959

does it matter that a bunch of data from Southfield elims didn't get into the twitter feed?

No, Elim data is not used in these analyses. Only Qual data. We are missing data from a few of the week one events. 469 teams played but we only have twitter data on 360 of them, but this is a big enough sample set for now.

[dellagd]

Could you possibly run the calculation again with Sunday data for us Hatboro-Horsham teams?