Week2 cumulative Twitter stats & OPRs

[Ether]

Elim Stats based on Twitter Elim match data as of Sun 3-9-14 14 20:03:13 ET.

See previous post for Qual stats and OPRs.

The usual Twitter data caveats* apply.


* Twitter data is incomplete and may contain errors and redundant data. Twitter data is not official. However, it contains information not available in the official Match Results and Team Standings data, such as foul points for each match.

[Ether]

For comparison, here's the combined final score OPR using the official FRC MatchResults data (not Twitter) for Week1+Week2.

[Bochek]

Originally Posted by Ether

For comparison, here's the combined final score OPR using the official FRC MatchResults data (not Twitter) for Week1+Week2.

It appears team 2386 is missing from your list?

Edit: It looks like you're missing the entire Alamo regional

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Bochek

It appears team 2386 is missing from your list?

Edit: It looks like you're missing the entire Alamo regional

Good catch. A file was missing from the folder when I ran the script. I'll post a correction shortly.

Edit:

Update posted.

According to the log file created by my script which processed the MatchResults data there were a total of 2124 qual matches and 1112 teams at 26 events in weeks 1 & 2.

Compare that to the Twitter data for weeks 1 & 2: only 1822 qual matches and 994 teams.

[Ether]

Here's a spreadsheet of the "OPR" of all the data columns for all the Qual matches in the Twitter data as of Sun Mar9 20:03:13.

"OPR" (least squares fit) was computed for each team not only for their alliance scores, but also for their opponent's alliance scores.

So for example:

column B minus column F gives the CCWM

column B minus column C gives the "unpenalized score"

(B-C) - (F-G) gives the "unpenalized CCWM"

You can add whatever other computations might interest you.

The usual Twitter data caveats apply.

[Ether]

See attached plot of A∙x-b alliance unpenalized score residuals vs percent of alliance scores, taken from Twitter data dated Sun Mar9 20:03:13 ET containing 1822 Qual Matches with 944 Teams.

A∙x~b, where:

A is the binary design matrix of the alliances;
x is the Team unpenalized OPR^* score vector;
A∙x is the alliance unpenalized OPR^* score vector;
b is the alliance unpenalized actual score vector;
A∙x-b is the residual vector (difference between A∙x and b)

From the graph you can see that 65% of alliance scores are within ±20 unpenalized points of the OPR. 37% are within ±10 points.

^*L2 norm (least squares) solution of A∙x~b

[MrRiedemanJACC]

Per our previous conversation, I am assuming most teams from Gull Lake aren't represented very well in this because of the lack of twitter data? (I'm thinking 2054 should be pretty far up there on OPR)

[Ether]

Originally Posted by MrRiedemanJACC

Per our previous conversation, I am assuming most teams from Gull Lake aren't represented very well in this because of the lack of twitter data? (I'm thinking 2054 should be pretty far up there on OPR)

What does the pronoun "this" refer to? Your post is linked to Post8, which does not show individual team OPRs at all.

??

[Robotmmm]

Is there a way to denote that teams that attended week 1 Mount Olive District had matches played that were 20 seconds short?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Robotmmm

Is there a way to denote that teams that attended week 1 Mount Olive District had matches played that were 20 seconds short?

I think you just did

On the other hand, if what you meant was "somehow factor that into the statistical calculations to account for the anomaly", I'm not sure it would be possible to obtain a consensus agreement among CDers concerning a statistically valid way to do that.

[Robotmmm]

That is why I said denote. There is no easy way to change the stats. Just talking about an asterisk type scenario.

[MisterJ]

I'm sure the answer to this has been posted and discussed a million times, and I apologize... but is Hatboro-Horsham missing?