Week2 cumulative Twitter stats & OPRs

[Ether]

Stats and OPRs based on Twitter Qual match data as of Sat 3-8-14 20:05:49 ET.

The usual Twitter data caveats apply.


NOTE: Look for updated data in more recent posts in this thread

[Ether]

Stats and OPRs based on Twitter Qual match data as of Sun 3-9-14 14:54:20 ET.

The usual Twitter data caveats apply: Twitter data is incomplete and may contain errors and redundant data. Twitter data is not official. However, it contains information not available in the official Match Results and Team Standings data, such as foul points for each match.


Explanation of "Quartile" for those not familiar with the term:

Example:

win final score:
     102 average (mean)
     420 max
     131 Quartile3
      95 Quartile2
      67 Quartile1


100% of the winning scores were less than or equal to 420

 75% of the winning scores were less than or equal to 131

 50% of the winning scores were less than or equal to  95

 25% of the winning scores were less than or equal to  67


 25% of the winning scores were between 131 and 420

 50% of the winning scores were between  95 and 420

 75% of the winning scores were between  67 and 420

[Ether]

Elim Stats based on Twitter Elim match data as of Sun 3-9-14 14 20:03:13 ET.

See previous post for Qual stats and OPRs.

The usual Twitter data caveats* apply.


* Twitter data is incomplete and may contain errors and redundant data. Twitter data is not official. However, it contains information not available in the official Match Results and Team Standings data, such as foul points for each match.

[Ether]

For comparison, here's the combined final score OPR using the official FRC MatchResults data (not Twitter) for Week1+Week2.

[Bochek]

Originally Posted by Ether

For comparison, here's the combined final score OPR using the official FRC MatchResults data (not Twitter) for Week1+Week2.

It appears team 2386 is missing from your list?

Edit: It looks like you're missing the entire Alamo regional

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Bochek

It appears team 2386 is missing from your list?

Edit: It looks like you're missing the entire Alamo regional

Good catch. A file was missing from the folder when I ran the script. I'll post a correction shortly.

Edit:

Update posted.

According to the log file created by my script which processed the MatchResults data there were a total of 2124 qual matches and 1112 teams at 26 events in weeks 1 & 2.

Compare that to the Twitter data for weeks 1 & 2: only 1822 qual matches and 994 teams.

[Ether]

Here's a spreadsheet of the "OPR" of all the data columns for all the Qual matches in the Twitter data as of Sun Mar9 20:03:13.

"OPR" (least squares fit) was computed for each team not only for their alliance scores, but also for their opponent's alliance scores.

So for example:

column B minus column F gives the CCWM

column B minus column C gives the "unpenalized score"

(B-C) - (F-G) gives the "unpenalized CCWM"

You can add whatever other computations might interest you.

The usual Twitter data caveats apply.

[Ether]

See attached plot of A∙x-b alliance unpenalized score residuals vs percent of alliance scores, taken from Twitter data dated Sun Mar9 20:03:13 ET containing 1822 Qual Matches with 944 Teams.

A∙x~b, where:

A is the binary design matrix of the alliances;
x is the Team unpenalized OPR^* score vector;
A∙x is the alliance unpenalized OPR^* score vector;
b is the alliance unpenalized actual score vector;
A∙x-b is the residual vector (difference between A∙x and b)

From the graph you can see that 65% of alliance scores are within ±20 unpenalized points of the OPR. 37% are within ±10 points.

^*L2 norm (least squares) solution of A∙x~b

[MrRiedemanJACC]

Per our previous conversation, I am assuming most teams from Gull Lake aren't represented very well in this because of the lack of twitter data? (I'm thinking 2054 should be pretty far up there on OPR)

[Ether]

Originally Posted by MrRiedemanJACC

Per our previous conversation, I am assuming most teams from Gull Lake aren't represented very well in this because of the lack of twitter data? (I'm thinking 2054 should be pretty far up there on OPR)

What does the pronoun "this" refer to? Your post is linked to Post8, which does not show individual team OPRs at all.

??

[Robotmmm]

Is there a way to denote that teams that attended week 1 Mount Olive District had matches played that were 20 seconds short?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by Robotmmm

Is there a way to denote that teams that attended week 1 Mount Olive District had matches played that were 20 seconds short?

I think you just did

On the other hand, if what you meant was "somehow factor that into the statistical calculations to account for the anomaly", I'm not sure it would be possible to obtain a consensus agreement among CDers concerning a statistically valid way to do that.

[Robotmmm]

That is why I said denote. There is no easy way to change the stats. Just talking about an asterisk type scenario.

[MisterJ]

I'm sure the answer to this has been posted and discussed a million times, and I apologize... but is Hatboro-Horsham missing?

[Ether]

Originally Posted by MisterJ

I'm sure the answer to this has been posted and discussed a million times, and I apologize... but is Hatboro-Horsham missing?

Sorry. There is no Twitter for Hatboro-Horsham (PAHAT). This usually means there were internet problems at the venue.

Many folks would like to see the Twitter data saved on the local FMS computer* until it can be archived and made accessible to teams doing scouting and for students interested in statistics who would like to analyze the data.

Ask around and see if there's anyone on your team who has any influence within FIRST. Maybe he or she can get the attention of someone at FIRST who has the interest and authority to make a constructive change.

* instead of being deleted at the end of the event