Predictions Week 3: Aerial Refueling

[Looking Forward]

With two weeks of events in the books, Aerial Assist is beginning to catch its stride. There was a lot of progression in terms of strategy and quality of play from week one to week two. Pass locations, inbounding, trussing, and shot selection saw a lot of refinement as teams learned what this game is all about. The successful alliances spent less time chasing the ball and tended to be better at putting the ball into the high goal than they did in the opening weekend of the season. Much of this had to do with more powerhouses competing, but having a week of knowledge on how Aerial Assist actually plays was instrumental as well.

The open field is an invitation for aggressive defense, and that's being reflected not only in the victors but alliance selection as well. We saw it with 341 and 973 getting selected over numerous quality scoring machines at Hatboro-Horsham and Central Valley respectively. While results don't always validate the process, both of these alliances ended up victorious and the selections speak to the meta-game. Even the top tier scorers are also bringing a fierce defensive game while they don't have the ball. Don't expect this game to get any less physical.

Week three will see a number of top teams taking the field for the second time. The design and strategic adaptations they make will tell a lot about this game, and start giving hints about its continued progression. The high goal will be a major factor for the top teams who can make it consistently, but even their shots will be delayed. At a number of events this weekend, the best approach may still be the one point goal for most alliances. Penalties will obviously remain a factor, and to re-iterate a point from last week, playing enough defense to keep a match within 50 points gives an over matched team more than a puncher's chance.

• Orlando has a much more storied legacy than most FRC regionals, but this year has the potential to rank up there with 2005 and 2008 as one of the most stacked fields in the event's history. Fresh off excellent week 1 performances, 624 and 1772 will join the strong local field, which includes four teams with Einstein appearances on their resume (179, 180, 233, and 1902). But nobody will have time to rest on their laurels, with 1523, 79, 383, and 1251 in the hunt. This event has all the potential to be a shootout, but there's enough veteran teams with east coast mentalities in attendance to expect some fierce defense in eliminations.
• OP Robotics isn't the only Canadian team that's never lost a regional. 3990 is two-for-two in Montreal, played their way on to 2056's alliance on Curie last year, and were Championship Rookie All-Stars the year before. Tech for Kids will be bringing their talents to a regional outside Montreal for the first time in Troy this weekend. Tech Valley should provide a significantly stiffer test, but there was a time that people doubted 2056 as well.
• Tech Valley is another event that fits into the mold of a lot of quality teams without a true standout that will dominate. 379, 340, 229, 1126, 3003, 20, and 2791 will all be in the hunt. There should be plenty of approaches to the game among that group (and others). SparX has a unique design, G.R.R. has an aggressive strategy and experienced drive team, the Rocketeers have an expanding catching mechanism, and the Robocats have an all-around design. It's going to be exciting to watch which approach to the game ends up prevailing.
• Thirty-eight teams will compete in Mexico City this team, making Mexico the fifth nation to host an official FRC event. Of all the teams competing at this young event, only 3522 has won an elimination series before (2013 Dallas regional), though 3478 and 2283 have appeared late in tournaments as back-up robots. LamBot has a particularly ingenuitive design, but their slow re-load time and lack of passing ability once loaded will make them an easy target for defense. Expect this to be a regional determined by defense, the low goal, and penalties.
• Through their entire history, 900 has been a team that's missed the eliminations more often than they've reached them. Their 2014 robot, however, is the perfect example of how a team can utilize effective strategy and prioritization to create a competitive role player. The Zebracorns focus on one thing, and they do it well. Truss. Their full court truss shots were their "secret sauce" to reaching the semi-finals in Myrtle Beach, and should help them reach the eliminations in Raleigh. Watching how elimination opponents react to the strategy will be exciting.
• PNW teams are rapidly getting used to playing at low population district events, but Mt. Vernon takes the cake with only 28 teams in attendance. 2046 is returning after taking home two banners from Auburn-Mountainview in week one, and they look to be the favorites again. 948 and 1510 should also make an impact in their season debuts. But with only four teams missing eliminations, and more than 1/3 of the field numbering over 4000, the top ranked alliance captains are going to have their work cut out for them at the tail end of alliance selection. The number one seed was able to take home gold from the 29 team Western Canada regional last year, but that was a very different game. It's going to take some creativity for the top alliances to advance cleanly in a tournament this size.
• Eastern Washington isn't a much larger event than Mr. Vernon, with only 31 teams. But it has the team that has quickly risen to become the largest name in the PNW, Skunkworks. 1983 has won all four regionals that became part of the PNW district system, and took home gold from all three of their regional events last year. This year they're sporting a well-rounded machine that should fit well with the aggression exhibited so far in Aerial Assist. Skunkworks are the favorites, but 2557 was the #1 selection and finalist at Auburn-Mountainview and should provide plenty of stiff competition if they're not on the same alliance.
• Both MORT teams are competing this weekend, but at different events. 11 will be at Chestnut Hill while 193 is attending Clifton. It will be interesting to see how MORT's rookies can fare without the main team, and how MORT as a whole can operate at two places at once.
• A number of teams at Clifton have already competed in 2014, mostly at the Mt. Olive district. Yet most of those teams did not meet expectations, with only three advancing past the quarter-finals. And all three of those (1676, 1279, and 4035) were on the same alliance. With only 33 teams and not a ton of name recognition, this event, like many this weekend, is going to be wide open. The winners are going to need to be able to get effective play from 2nd round selections in a shallow field.
• Springside Chestnut Hill only has one more team registered than Clifton, but some of their veterans fared a little better in week one. 56 beat #1 selection 222 in the Mt. Olive finals, and 486 captained the #2 alliance to the semis in Hatboro. 2016 and hosts 1218 will be looking for more from their robots after inconsistent and often underwhelming performances in Hatboro, but neither team is shy about making in-season modifications. Annual heavyweight 365 will also make their debut, along with one of the biggest surprises of 2013, 225. There isn't a clear favorite, but there should be enough offense for some intense matches, provided they can survive at an event that's becoming known for hostile defense.
• WPI has plenty of teams with scoring capability, but even more with looming questions. The host team, 190, has a terrific grip on the ball and good acquisition system, but their limited shooting options make them easier to defend and their inbounding could stand to improve. Overall, they seem to be the closest to having it all working heading into the event. 885 has plenty of potential and a terrific drive base, but their intake and passing speed at UNH left plenty to be desired.
• St. Louis lacks an obvious favorite, but it has several very competitive teams that should keep it interesting. 1985 captained the #2 alliance at Arkansas last week. 1288 blossomed into a very effective inbounder and trusser in the eliminations at Central Illinois. 1706, 3284, 1501, and 1208 should also be in the hunt. But with more than 20 teams being competing for their third year or less, expect a little chaos in the qualification rankings and for well structured alliances to have the advantage on Saturday afternoon.
• After punching two tickets to championship in week one and winning the event in 2011, Eagle Robotics is the biggest name heading to Utah this week. 399 meshed perfectly with the Citrus Circuits in their week one romp at Inland Empire. It remains to be seen whether they can find that same chemistry with 2996, 1339, 2122 or any of the other top competitors in Utah.
• A few years ago, few would have believed that the Greater Kansas City regional would be as competitive as it will be this year. Even with both Missouri regional events on the same weekend, a number of high powered teams are in town. 118 and 1986 both were regional victors and #1 selections in week one. 4522's incredible performance was overshadowed by their heartbreaking controversial loss in the Arkansas finals. It will also be the debut of 935's dual-intake, multi-ball autonomous and 1730's flux capacitor. With no shortage of offensive firepower, this event will likely come down to which alliance can best integrate defensive play.
• While 148 has made a habit of winning through tough defense in Dallas the past few years, there are some more high profile teams attending in 2014. Fresh off their win in Minnesota, 359 should find the climate a little more familiar in Texas. 1477 and 2415 are both making their debuts on their first ever visits to the regional. 3847 has what appears to be their best robot yet, and is looking for their first regional win. But it's the homegrown 2010 Dallas Rookie All-Stars 3310 that are looking to take home a gold for the third consecutive year.
• Even the west coast is playing some intense defense in Aerial Assist. Davis is traditionally the most defensive of the west coast events, so don't expect the trend to change this weekend. After a convincing win two weeks ago, 1678 is the favorite heading in. 100 and 971 have powerful launchers, but will need to work their kinks out and find their niche. 1671 has plenty of scoring upside, but they play more of a finesse game and defensive matches tends to emphasize the holes in their style. They'll need to improve their ball possession and start hitting both autonomous shots more regularly to come out on top.
• It's always painful to watch an alliance lose because of mental mistakes. Especially so if they don't have time for a buzzer shot, in a district finals match decided by only two points no less, because they trussed a ball twice on the same cycle. Even more so when they truss an autonomous ball in the next match. The ability for a drive team to keep their heads in the game when the plan goes awry is crucial this year.
• There were very few teams capable of demonstrating better decision making and fluid play in week one than Lightning Robotics. Once they got their machine working, 862's smart play was instrumental to their alliance reaching the finals at Southfield. They don't have the upside of 107 or 1023, but their effective play should make them a very useful alliance member at Escanaba.
• After years of circuitous drives, the oldest team from Michigan's Upper Peninsula (857) must be pleased that the Escanaba district exists, even if it's still a three hour trek. They will have to be one of the veteran shepherds for the 12 rookies in a field with more than 50% teams numbered over 4000.
• There's little doubt that Howell will be the higher octane and more experienced, both in terms of age and 2014 play, of the two FiM events in week three. While perennial favorites 67 and 469 are making their Aerial Assist debuts, a number of other competitors are already battle tested. That includes five teams who took their robots out of state to open the season (27, 245, and the Grandville Robodawg trio).

[Akash Rastogi]

Expect 869 to come out strong at Clifton as well. I don't think 193 will have any trouble at all without 11. The two teams function quite independently, so they'll be fine. Excited to see how 193 and 869 do!

[Max Boord]

Orlando has even more!
if 1065 does not make top 8 i will be shocked. 386,86 and 108 have near guaranteed seats in the semi finals.

I predict:

624, 180, 1065.W
233, 179, 108 F

1523, 1251, 86 SF
1902, 79, 1592 SF

O and our reveal video doesn't quite showcase every one of our weapons.

[StAxis]

Originally Posted by Max Boord

Orlando has even more!
if 1065 does not make top 8 i will be shocked. 386,86 and 108 have near guaranteed seats in the semi finals.

I predict:

624, 180, 1065.W
233, 179, 108 F

1523, 1251, 86 SF
1902, 79, 1592 SF

O and our reveal video doesn't quite showcase every one of our weapons.

I would be absolutely amazed if any of those alliances happened. Most of those teams are going to be split among the top 8 as first round picks. Also 108 isn't attending Orlando this year! (I do like how the Finalist alliance is the exact same as the winning alliance in 2011 though )

[geomapguy]

Everyone has seemed to forget that MS/LA regional powerhouses 456, 1421, 1912, and 2080 are all making the trip down to Orlando. I suspect all of the teams will have a good showings.

456 - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=708581315830287&set=a.1982196668664 57.46387.162173593804398&type=1&relevant_count=1&r ef=nf
1421 - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=596442117087645&set=vb.424779717587220 &type=2&theater
1912 - http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=127725
2080 - http://torbotics2080.org/wp-content/...04/website.jpg

[Christopher149]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

After years of circuitous drives, the oldest team from Michigan's Upper Peninsula (857) must be pleased that the Escanaba district exists, even if it's still a three hour trek. They will have to be one of the veteran shepherds for the 12 rookies in a field with more than 50% teams numbered over 4000.

Woo! Mention!

And YES, it's nice to have a "close" event. Though, 2586 has a trip that is like 3.5 hours to Esky. Escanaba will be interesting with the mix of teams that have done really well already and all the rookies.

[Metonym]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

[*]PNW teams are rapidly getting used to playing at low population district events, but Mt. Vernon takes the cake with only 28 teams in attendance. 2046 is returning after taking home two banners from Auburn-Mountainview in week one, and they look to be the favorites again. 948 and 1510 should also make an impact in their season debuts. But with only four teams missing eliminations, and more than 1/3 of the field numbering over 4000, the top ranked alliance captains are going to have their work cut out for them at the tail end of alliance selection. The number one seed was able to take home gold from the 29 team Western Canada regional last year, but that was a very different game. It's going to take some creativity for the top alliances to advance cleanly in a tournament this size. [*]Eastern Washington isn't a much larger event than Mr. Vernon, with only 31 teams. But it has the team that has quickly risen to become the largest name in the PNW, Skunkworks. 1983 has won all four regionals that became part of the PNW district system, and took home gold from all three of their regional events last year. This year they're sporting a well-rounded machine that should fit well with the aggression exhibited so far in Aerial Assist. Skunkworks are the favorites, but 2557 was the #1 selection and finalist at Auburn-Mountainview and should provide plenty of stiff competition if they're not on the same alliance.[/list]

I this is going to be an interesting week with a lot of powerhouses coming back for seconds and the Skunks coming for firsts. Skunks will probably win, but I have heard rumors that some things aren't finished for their robot, such as auto. If that is true and it isn't fixed by qualifications we may see them get picked up by a team later on which will go on to win the competition. I am rooting for SOTA, 2557, to win because as you said they were #1 seed at Auburn, so I expect them to get just as high this time, and they are just an awesome group of people that should be revered for how they act at competitions, in GP and likeability. It is never a dull moment when they are around.

Week 5 has been touted as the real powerhouse district with quite a few teams going for their 3rd district (my team included), the do-whatever-you-want-because-the-points-don't-matter-except-for-awards district. It will be interesting to see how teams deal with the wear and tear that three districts will put on their robot, hopefully the 6 hours before each competition will be enough for everyone fix any damage.

[Max Boord]

Originally Posted by StAxis

I would be absolutely amazed if any of those alliances happened. Most of those teams are going to be split among the top 8 as first round picks. Also 108 isn't attending Orlando this year! (I do like how the Finalist alliance is the exact same as the winning alliance in 2011 though )

My bad for not looking (peach tree is close enough).

624 DOMINATED Alamo to the point that they could grab the #1 seed in Orlando. as they appear to have catching ability, they want a lob style shooter witch 180 is. As for 1065, they have been picked by spam at the previous 2 events.

as for finalist 233 and 179 generally try to stick together (as seen in prior years) and 108 was just kinda left.

As for our alliance, We have made semi finals as alliance captain 3 out of our last 4 regionals and with 179 picked we would still want a strong catching robot witch the tech tigers are.

The other SF alliance was simply the rest of the powerhouses i could think of mushed into 1 alliance, similar to the 2013 #5 seed SFL alliance.

[StAxis]

Originally Posted by Max Boord

My bad for not looking (peach tree is close enough).

624 DOMINATED Alamo to the point that they could grab the #1 seed in Orlando. as they appear to have catching ability, they want a lob style shooter witch 180 is. As for 1065, they have been picked by spam at the previous 2 events.

as for finalist 233 and 179 generally try to stick together (as seen in prior years) and 108 was just kinda left.

As for our alliance, We have made semi finals as alliance captain 3 out of our last 4 regionals and with 179 picked we would still want a strong catching robot witch the tech tigers are.

The other SF alliance was simply the rest of the powerhouses i could think of mushed into 1 alliance, similar to the 2013 #5 seed SFL alliance.

I agree with most of the first picks, I just have trouble seeing some of the third picks still being around. I certainly hope your predictions are right though because I'd love to be on an alliance with 1592 and 79! (Knowing all those robot designs they'd work together quite well too...)

[dodar]

Originally Posted by StAxis

I agree with most of the first picks, I just have trouble seeing some of the third picks still being around. I certainly hope your predictions are right though because I'd love to be on an alliance with 1592 and 79! (Knowing all those robot designs they'd work together quite well too...)

Would be cool to be on that alliance, but not so sure how I'd feel about being a 3rd pick though. Hopefully we would do better.

[JoeWithTheSpecs]

Also at Howell will be Teams 308 and 548, who both have very impressive-looking robots.
Can't believe this team wasn't mentioned for the Dallas Regional, but 1817 was an absolute devastator in Hub City just last week with their super accurate robot and two-ball autonomous.


Anyone know of a Mexico-Regional webcast? I want to see my Lambot friends in action this weekend!

[troylu1124]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Through their entire history, 900 has been a team that's missed the eliminations more often than they've reached them. Their 2014 robot, however, is the perfect example of how a team can utilize effective strategy and prioritization to create a competitive role player. The Zebracorns focus on one thing, and they do it well. Truss. Their full court truss shots were their "secret sauce" to reaching the semi-finals in Myrtle Beach, and should help them reach the eliminations in Raleigh. Watching how elimination opponents react to the strategy will be exciting.

I am glad to share that we won the NC regional using the strategy dubbed "Secret Sauce." Being the 2nd ranked team, we shocked the crowd by picking the 44th and then the 38th ranked team. Aluminum assault (1287) played the hardest defense we had ever seen, and Worcester Beachbotics (4288) ran our shot to the human player right in to the low goal.

[ehfeinberg]

Originally Posted by troylu1124

I am glad to share that we won the NC regional using the strategy dubbed "Secret Sauce." Being the 2nd ranked team, we shocked the crowd by picking the 44th and then the 38th ranked team. Aluminum assault (1287) played the hardest defense we had ever seen, and Worcester Beachbotics (4288) ran our shot to the human player right in to the low goal.

You guys and your secret sauce.

I've only seen one team play defense better than 1287 this year and that would be you guys in 2011.