[NE FIRST] District Championship point cutoff

[Paul T.]

after week 1 of competition we thought the point cutoff was going to be around 60 but now were starting to reconsider. With my team only having 22 points (we counted, not official) (won 5 qualification matches - 10 pts got picked next to last - 2 points won the quarter finals 10 pts = 22) meaning we would need 38 ponts (at least) to get to the district championship. I wanted some other opinions of what the cutoff may be.

Thanks
Paul

[Jay O'Donnell]

Doesn't exactly answer your question, but this might give you some idea of where you stand. http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=127672

[loyal]

From the start I always thought the minimum points would be 50 or 60. So my guess would be 55 points then you are out. I really think that's what it will take to squeak in.

[M. Lillis]

So 60 teams get into Boston, do Rookie All-Stars and District Chairman's winners take away from that? If so, it is really only the top 42 point-getters (That's a minimum, because there are definitely going to be some top-60 teams that double qualify (chairmans/all-star + point ranking)). My original thought was that it would take about 70 to get in. But if awards take Boston slots, then I would venture to say that it may be closer to 80 points to get in.

[dag0620]

Originally Posted by M. Lillis

So 60 teams get into Boston, do Rookie All-Stars and District Chairman's winners take away from that? If so, it is really only the top 42 point-getters (That's a minimum, because there are definitely going to be some top-60 teams that double qualify (chairmans/all-star + point ranking)). My original thought was that it would take about 70 to get in. But if awards take Boston slots, then I would venture to say that it may be closer to 80 points to get in.

54 teams total will be attending. 9 of those slots will be allocated to District Chairmans award winners. Everyone else will get in via points.

With that said, typically, teams that win Chairmans normally would have qualified via points anyway, so it makes little impact on the amount of points you would need to get in.

[M. Lillis]

Originally Posted by dag0620

54 teams total will be attending. 9 of those slots will be allocated to District Chairmans award winners. Everyone else will get in via points.

Ok, that makes sense.

[MikeE]

tldr: probably 57 or 58 pts but we'll know far more this time next week

The answer to this question really depends on two things we don't know yet:

• how much correlation we see between the points a team gets in both their scored events and
• how many points are "scored" by teams in their third (or fourth!) event.

A high correlation will tend to reduce the Championship threshold since a large mass of points will be allocated to a small number of high performing teams therefore decreasing the points awarded to the mid-tier teams.

Points being allocated to teams in their third event and therefore discarded will also reduce the cutoff threshold by suppressing the total number of points awarded during the district event phase of the season.

We're not quite half way into the season (4 of 9 district events complete) so it's a little early to have a solid prediction; while 9% of teams have completed both scored events over 15% haven't played in any event yet. A graph of districts by first, second and third event teams


Choosing the top 54 robots of 163 teams in New England means we are selecting the top third of teams. In each of the 4 events so far the top tercile (I had to look up that word too) is between 26 and 36 points, averaging 32, so a simple answer is that championship threshold will be twice that.

My current estimate is that the threshold will be slightly lower, probably 57 or 58pts, but in a few days the Week 4 events will be concluding. At that point every team will have played at least one event and a third of teams will have competed in both events, so we should have a far better idea of where the threshold will fall.

If anyone is still reading, here are some unofficial stats for the events so far

Event		NHNAS	NHDUR	CTGRO	MAWOR
Week		1	2	2	3
Teams		39	36	33	39
Rounds		12	12	12	12
Matches		78	72	66	78
DQs		10	1	1	2
Total QualPts	462	430	394	468
Mean QualPts	11.85	11.94	11.94	12.00
Total SeedPts	236	236	236	236
Total ElimPts	210	210	210	210
Total AwardPts	86	86	86	86
Total Points	994	962	926	1000
Mean Points	25.5	26.7	28.1	25.6
StdDev Points	16.7	17.1	15.7	16.2
Max Points	75	72	57	58
Min Points	4	5	6	2
Median Points	23	24	25	19
Top Tercile	33.5	26.5	36.0	31.8

Some other musings on district points from last year's FiM & MAR season can be found here particularly on the substantial advantage of attending smaller events.

[M. Lillis]

Originally Posted by MikeE

how many points are "scored" by teams in their third (or fourth!) event.

Are you implying that points accumulated after the first two events count toward Championship? Because I believe it is the first two district events. Maybe I'm just not reading your words right.

[Andrew Schreiber]

Originally Posted by M. Lillis

Are you implying that points accumulated after the first two events count toward Championship? Because I believe it is the first two district events. Maybe I'm just not reading your words right.

They are "scored" in a sense. However, they don't count towards qualifying. However, those teams are 'taking points' from teams that they could count for effectively removing points from the overall system. A good team competing at 3+ event acts as a sponge concentrating points to them and lowering the threshold for everyone. (Those points are effectively lost)

[M. Lillis]

Originally Posted by Andrew Schreiber

However, those teams are 'taking points' from teams that they could count for effectively removing points from the overall system.

Wow, it makes sense now. Thanks!

[PVCpirate]

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell

Doesn't exactly answer your question, but this might give you some idea of where you stand. http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=127672

If you look at my latest standings, I've placed a black line under the ranking position which represents the percentage of NE teams going to the district championship applied to the number of teams who have played so far. By applying the percentage, looking at that bottom team's score and doubling it if they've only played once, I came up with a cutoff at 72 points. Doubling the score probably reduces the accuracy, so I expect the number to come down once the cutoff team has played 2 events. My guess right now is 65 ish.

[loyal]

Teams playing in more than two events become spoilers. This is like most all play offs. When they win they take points away from other teams denying an advancement. This is all cool. But some thing I was thinking of is this. Teams playing more than two events should not be pickers or first round picks. Only last round. This would give the second event teams an opportunity to advance in the points. Make sense?

[Ty Tremblay]

Originally Posted by loyal

Teams playing more than two events should not be pickers or first round picks. Only last round. This would give the second event teams an opportunity to advance in the points. Make sense?

Then why go to a 3rd+ event at all if you only have a 1 in 8 chance of making it into eliminations? This would wreak havoc during alliance selections, giving you almost no advantage for ranking #1.

[loyal]

Originally Posted by Ty Tremblay

Then why go to a 3rd+ event at all if you only have a 1 in 8 chance of making it into eliminations? This would wreak havoc during alliance selections, giving you almost no advantage for ranking #1.

A third event would still allow you to unbag your robot and make improvements. That is huge. As for alliance selection certainly #8 would get a great last pick but as I said think of the points. # 1 would get 16 points. Those points if given to a team that played two events already and might be going to the championship any how is wasteful.
Wasteful not in a bad way. Wasteful in a spoiler playoff way. In hockey I always loved the spoiler strategy and in NE FIRST I can see it being a viable strategy also.

[Jessica Boucher]

Don't forget that there will be teams who will decline their invitation. So even though the cutoff may be X, the top 53 teams who want to go are in.

It's just like alliance selection - if you're on the bubble, create a pick list anyway.