FIRST in Michigan: 2014 Mid-Season Review

[FiM Informer]

We are chronologically halfway through the regular season of the FiM season, but with only 6 of the 15 districts played so far, we still have most of the season to go. Over the next three weeks, we’ll pick up the pace, playing 3 events each week until the Michigan State Championship in week 7.

These first three weeks have given us some interesting storylines and different types of game play, which will each be highlighted.

3 Weeks of Recap
In week 1, we saw a number 8 alliance of 453, 3667 and 4779 overcome all the odds to win the Center Line district. Penalties played a huge part in the entire event, which will come up later, but despite the situation, congrats to any 8th alliance that wins an event. To give historical background, in 2013, one of the top 3 alliances won every Michigan event, including the top alliance 9/12 times. A bottom-half alliance only made the finals once, let alone won.

Then over at Southfield, we saw the world championship runner-up 33 pick up right where they left off last year by taking the district, with help with their rookie mentee, 5053. With those two was a team that has been the biggest surprise so far this year. In 2014’s first three weeks, 107 has doubled the number of wins in their team history from 2 to 4 en route to becoming Michigan’s first double district winner this season. In week 4, they'll continue to fine-tune and try to make it triple. They faced the first alliance to really attempt the triple-assisting strategy, the #7 alliance of 862, 2474 and 1250. Coming off Einstein, this was 862’s first of two silver medals this year; they’ll hope to have better luck at Bedford and MSC.

In Week 2, 2337 won Kettering; they’ve now won their home event 2 of the last 3 years. Their partner on that alliance, and another happy home team, was 314, who made big strides last year and have now taken the next step, winning their first event in almost a decade. Rounding out the alliance was another rookie robot in 5081. Let’s jump over to Gull Lake, an event which could have seen the 5th installment of 1918 v 2054 finals, but with 74’s top seeded robot dying in the semi-finals, we saw the #2 alliance go all the way. If you didn’t know better, you might think that 2054 carried their rookie partners to gold, but it was 4967 who captained that alliance (with third partner 5248) to the ‘ship, dominating the finals and earning gold in the first event of their history.

Week 3’s Howell District brought us the debut of two of the most storied teams in FiM (and the entirety of FRC), 3-time World Champion 67 and 2014 World Finalist 469. Despite taking a couple qualification losses each, they seeded 1 & 2 and picked up 3548, a great pick in the deepest district of the year so far. Though the finals were exciting, the top alliance stormed to a 6-0 record through the eliminations. This year, FiM finally took the trek up into the tundra of the Upper Peninsula, to the joy of FiM’s most vulnerable UP team, Houghton’s own 857. To Escanaba we go! 107 played to a perfect qualification record in what was a relatively light defensive event.. at least until Saturday. They picked up Center Line’s top seed 1023 and 2586, and won gold, making the long drive home well worth it.

Now even though the outcome for all the winning alliances was the same (duh ), each played a slightly different version of the game to get there.

31 and 30
With so many great teams and robots in Michigan, it’s no surprise the state is similarly rich with clever strategists (who expected dual full-court shooters on Einstein?). That depth is more evident this year than ever before because of the multitude of potentially successful strategies. The most basic division between strategies is triple assist vs two robot truss. Both have been very effective and have won events this season all over the country.

Right out of the gate in week 1, 33 decided that one pass over the truss was the way to go. With 107’s skills as an good ball handler and shooter, they’d try to toss the ball to the Killer Bees, with the Bees attempting to catch the pass most times. One small downside to this strategy was the time 33 had to spend time chasing the ball after a missed catch. This strategy was expanded upon in week 3 by the top two alliances at Howell, who each forewent the robot catch attempt, instead trussing to their human players, on their way to clashing in the finals.

The GDC’s favorite way to play the game was perhaps also the most under-used in early weeks. With assist points the first qualification tiebreaker, it’s clear they wanted to see triple assists. You could tell 2337 knew that was the way to go at Kettering. They racked up more than twice the assist points of any other team at the event, heavily utilising the intimate ball transfer known as the kiss pass. They rode the triple-assist strategy through eliminations on their way to gold. We also saw a bit of this week 1 by Southfield’s finalist #7 alliance (862, 2474, and 1250) and again in week 2 by Gull Lake’s finalist #5 alliance (4003, 3234, and 4327).

The triple assist has the potential to be time consuming and risky, with all 3 robots handling the ball, allowing more chances for the ball to be lost. Despite the downsides, it’s proven to be a very effective way of scoring so far. While at least two of the robots need to be good ball handlers, one can be a simple inbound-and-dump robot (ball rolls off of them from the inbounder to get a possession call). This strategy can easily turn into an even higher-point cycle if the alliance’s main scorer has a high percentage high goal shot, though this adds yet another risk. Many alliances will try this strategy with varying success, mainly due to differences in ball handling abilities.

How and Where to Truss?
Some might not think there is much of a debate here (one way or the other), but there is a nice little one shaping up. During a few release videos this year and week 0 scrimmages, we saw robots tossing to human players instead of just to the other side of the field. During the first two weeks of the FiM season this was a very rare play. Then came the Howell event, where it seemed like every other team from 27 to 1504 made the truss-to-HP pass. With several of those human players using professional-grade equipment (WR and GK gloves), many of the catches belonged on ESPN’s Top 10 Plays more than a FIRST Robotics Competition.

At Howell, the strategy seemed like a silver bullet that could amplify any team’s score, but the question you have to ask is was it really defended? The robots faced few roadblocks when attempting to pass to their HPs and those HPs didn’t need to inbound around defense. In basketball, a team will allow easy inbounds for most of the game, but when it comes down to the final minutes of a close game, it’s time for a full-court press. In FRC, every match begins and ends in the final minutes of a close game.

A bit more defense played at either end could put this strategy off-track. Bumping the trussing robot will send the ball in an unforeseen direction, perhaps well outside the field of play. Most HPs don’t know what to do when faced with a defensive robot, which can drain precious seconds off the clock. This is not to say that the truss-to-HP strategy won’t be effective in future weeks. Simply, I’m saying that every strategy has a counter-strategy and there is no secret sauce that will ensure success.

Catching is crucial, but not in the way you think
On the other side of the truss is another 10-point play: the robot catch. While human catches have been relatively common at times this season, the robot catch remains rare. As I said 3 weeks ago, catching is hard. Several teams have made very exciting catches (70, 2054, even 5084’s “FridgeBot,” to name just a few), but when defense in played on the attempting catcher, repeatability goes out the window.

Teams will continue to attempt catches, as it’s a way to gain points and an exciting one at that, but the more important type of robot catching we’ll see the coming weeks is inbounding. As teams play more defense on the start of the cycle, being able to catch longer passes from your human player might be a difference maker, as bigger targets will lead to better accuracy. 33 and 469 are among the robots that will have an aerial advantage when it comes to bringing down the inbounds despite defense.

This game has all of the defense, but with none of the goalies
Speaking of defense, when was the last time that defense played as big a role in the game as it has this year? Defending the other alliance from scoring is much easier when there’s just one game piece per alliance on the field at a time. This can make it hard to score even for the elite teams, who often have to push through double-teams. There was even a point where playing defense was a decent offensive strategy (which I’ll shortly discuss later). Taking advantage of the way a robot takes aim and fire is also a big deal. Low release point shooting can lead to blocked or deflected shots by a tall defending robot. This can be easily observed in some of 33’s elimination matches at Southfield (QF1-1 was any team’s worst nightmare) and is pretty common because there is no protected zone. Teams must be more creative on how they take shots, since recovering from a missed shot takes valuable time. When there’s no chance to getting a high-percentage shot off, teams must put the ball into the low goal to keep their cycles going, as 2337 did so well at Kettering.

Drivetrains have also been beefed up this year, which certainly has to do with more motors allowed, but perhaps also because teams noticed the effect of a powerful fullback last season. With 6 CIM train drives, defensive teams can take advantage of offensive robots who decided to put their motor power elsewhere, which hurts the watchability of this game.

While effective goalies have been few and far between, goalies like 4854 or 5201 have had their moments of glory. Still, at this point in the season, it seems like the goalie tactic has been all but abandoned.

10 seconds can make the difference
Autonomous success has proven to be important, just like in years past. Getting ahead in the first 10 seconds and then playing shut-down defence is an ugly, but potentially successful, way to play the game. This year, the GDC presented a scoring option that made auton achievable for almost every team in the world: mobility points. This gave programming-challenged teams a way to score points by just moving forward, and it has contributed to almost entirely eliminating scores of 0 points (there have only been 2 out of 480 Michigan qualification matches).

Scoring one ball in the top goal is challenging enough for most teams, so the teams with multiball autons are a step above the curve. This is especially important at weaker events where many teams can’t shoot reliably or at all. 33 didn’t just show off a very accurate 2 ball auton, but fired out a nice 3 ball auton, when needed. 27, 67, 1023, and 3688 presented decent 2 ball autons at their events, particularly on Saturday; they and many others will try to fine-tune their 2 ball autons for their next events. Over time, as teams improve and shoot more consistently, multi-ball autons will become less important, but auton in general will continue to be very important, as they will be the only uncontested shots many teams will take.

Mid-Match Variations
Both trussing and assisting have proven to be important in this game. Assists, being the second seeding sort, behind QS, are crucial to seeding above others. 3 assists take longer than 2, but they also provide 20 more points. Truss points, added immediately as they are scored, can be an effective hail-mary for an alliance near the end of a match, while many alliances have lost because they failed to score a ball with 3 assists on it. The question you have to ask is, when is the tradeoff worth taking, especially as a match nears its end? As they direct their drivers under immense time pressures, coaches must juggle these opposing priorities of taking the easy points vs. getting the best possible cycles.

Fouls: They might be bad for the game, but they’re worse for you
I’m sure no one needs to tell you about the severity of penalties in this game. From G12 to G28 to G40, fouls are getting called all over the field, and frankly many of the calls have been all over the place as well. There are lots of ways you could change this game for the better; I, for one, like this suggestion. But I’m not here to recommend changes to the GDC, I’m here to show you how the game has been played and to show you how to play the game.

Jim’s paper was excellent in its history of penalties over the many years of FRC, but his outlook is too pessimistic for my taste. It may have been appropriate after Week 1, when there were accusations of penalty baiting at Center Line (we still have not and may never hear the other side to this story). However, there was an update that clarified such strategies will not be allowed, and in the subsequent weeks, there have been few, if any, similar accusations. Other updates, like this Tuesday’s, have made other cautious improvements to gameplay. “Expect violence to escalate as the season progresses and teams learn better how to draw technical fouls from those attempting to rise to the challenge of the game“? I expect no such thing, and it simply hasn’t been the case so far.

This is a game of strategy. As a team, the most basic component of your strategy should be to play clean and to encourage your partners to do the same.

6 districts down, 9 to go
With 40% of the FiM events played, that still leaves close to 900 more matches to be played before the field for MSC is set. With 3 events being played each week the rest of the way, not only are the robots spread out around the state, but so is the volunteer staff that make these great events possible. Of all these events there are a few that stand out.

The West Michigan District seems to get stronger and stronger every year, not only with its strong core of west side teams, but also with the number of eastern teams that make the trek. This district is the deepest left in the FiM season.

It’s not often that you get much overlap between two district events (especially with 15 of them), but one week after the Escanaba district, Traverse City will entertain 27 of the same teams. This event will lack the top end firepower that Escanaba had, but there are a lot of good passers, so assisting will be key.

It’ll also be interesting to watch the Bedford and Troy Districts in Week 6. Both events, typically late in the season, have tended to draw elite teams playing their 3rd districts. This year is no exception, as about 1/3 of the teams at each event will be playing their 3rd event of the season. With the quality and experience of the teams at Bedford and Troy, it’s very likely alliances at those events will serve as bellwethers for MSC strategy.

Even at this stage of the year, there are still some Michigan teams I am excited to see for the first time. At the top of the list has to be 3539, 2013 MSC Champion, who won’t compete until week 5. Also in the mix are two veteran west side teams waiting to make their 2014 debut at West Michigan, 85 and 141, as well as three east side district contenders: 2137; 68, who will play each of the next three weeks; and 2834.

The road to MSC is like the rest of Michigan’s roads: Filled with potholes
Qualifying for the Michigan State Championship will be tougher than ever. My current projection places the point threshold at 70-75 points, but take this figure with a grain of salt as most Michigan districts have yet to be played. 3 teams that have each qualified for MSC each of the past 4 years are in danger of missing out: 51, 494, and 2959. With all three at 37-38 points after 1 event, they are each one sub-par event away from staying home in Week 7.

Qualifying for MSC as a rookie has historically been a monumental task. In 2013, a grand total of 0 rookies competed at the Michigan State Championship. With dozens of rookies, it’d be easy to predict an increase, but already 4 rookie teams have taken home gold, a number which is likely to continue to rise and will result in multiple rookies at this year’s state championship. Leading the way is 4967, who, at 83 points after one event, have already eclipsed the likely qualification threshold and currently lead all Michigan teams in points per event.

The Magic 8-Ball
Speaking of the Michigan State Championship, let’s try to see how it’ll look. The strategies so far have been pretty simple, and as the season matures, teams will learn to target the weak points of each common strategy. Offensive coordinators, in turn, will need to stretch their creativity to avoid and counter such defense, at the risk of greater complexity. Strategies so far have also been mostly static. Few alliances have switched around their tactics in eliminations, like the 2013 MSC Champions so famously did. This will become more necessary in the future, particularly in elimination matches, as teams realize the need to stay unpredictable.

All that said, it’s hard to tell what strategies in particular will be most successful, whether 3 assists will dominate or two robot truss will take gold. The former offers more points per cycle, while the latter offers more reliability. With no certain answers to be had, perhaps we should ask our Magic 8-Ball… It says, “Ask again in about three weeks.”



(Disclaimer: Don’t be offended if your team wasn't mentioned, this post is not intended to be a listing, just a discussion)